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Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014
 

Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014

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Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. For the fourth month in a row, our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record level. Maybe there's a ...

Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. For the fourth month in a row, our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record level. Maybe there's a recovery under way...?

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http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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    Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014 Amárach Economic Recovery Index January 2014 Presentation Transcript

    • Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing January 2014 (including analysis by age group and social class) © Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index 1
    • Picking Up Last year’s improving performance has continued into January, and so for the fourth month in a row our Economic Recovery Index has reached a record high level – up to 33.3. In particular, a majority of consumers are optimistic about the future, the first time since May 2011. December’s retail figures – showing a pick up in the value and volume of sales year-on-year – certainly reflects the improving consumer outlook. We have been tracking consumer sentiment about the economy and their own financial situation for nearly five years and this is the first time we have seen such a steady improvement in outlook. It looks like the early stages of a recovery… Economic Recovery Index 2
    • The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out nearly five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to January 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 15th-20th January 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch. Economic Recovery Index 3
    • The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index continues to improve: reaching 33.3 in January 2014, the fourth record breaking performance in row: 35 30 25 20 15 10 0 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 5 Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 Economic Recovery Index 4
    • A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago: Dec ’13: 1% Dec ’13: 8% Dec ’13: 24% Dec ’13: 31% Jan ’14: 20% Dec ’13: 36% Economic Recovery Index Jan ’14: 0% Jan ’14: 9% Jan ’14: 34% Jan ’14: 36% 5
    • ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement 32 34 31 3 0 27.1 56 23 18 2 1 17.3 58 24 16 2 0 15.4 45 30 21 3 0 20.9 24 36 31 8 1 31.2 20 36 34 9 0 33.3 Economic Recovery Index 6
    • ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Economic Recovery Index 52 26 21 32 37 41 I feel I am financially I am optimistic comfortable in spite of the enough to current make it economic through the situation recession 50 39 37 40 40 44 61 48 45 47 49 53 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me 55 49 46 47 43 46 7
    • ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 I am more I am saving a My main I would be relaxed about lot more than financial priority happy to spending before is to pay off my borrow money money than I because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I was a few recession as possible need to months ago 21 26 60 29 13 22 59 22 14 24 57 24 22 27 57 27 22 26 55 26 23 25 57 24 Economic Recovery Index 8
    • Brighter Outlook % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation” January 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525 Strongly Agree 14% 14% 14% 19% 18% 8% 9% 16% 16% 17% 12% Slightly Agree 38% 38% 39% 41% 34% 38% 37% 42% 39% 41% 36% Neither/Nor 16% 17% 14% 11% 20% 18% 14% 14% 16% 15% 16% Slightly Disagree 17% 16% 18% 15% 18% 17% 20% 15% 16% 16% 18% Strongly Disagree 13% 13% 13% 11% 7% 17% 20% 12% 12% 10% 16% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 9
    • Buy Irish % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” January 2014 Weighted Sample TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525 Strongly Agree 5% 4% 5% 9% 5% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 4% Slightly Agree 18% 18% 18% 22% 21% 16% 14% 17% 19% 20% 16% Neither/Nor 20% 24% 17% 17% 21% 19% 14% 26% 24% 23% 18% Slightly Disagree 27% 26% 28% 31% 26% 26% 29% 26% 23% 27% 27% Strongly Disagree 28% 26% 29% 18% 23% 35% 38% 27% 28% 23% 32% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 10
    • The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 10% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 11
    • The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to January 2014 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 5% Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 Economic Recovery Index 12
    • Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: January 2014 January 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1003 495 507 169 224 187 157 266 280 478 525 Enjoyment 53% 55% 50% 54% 47% 49% 63% 53% 50% 57% 49% Happiness 53% 51% 55% 57% 57% 52% 50% 50% 51% 55% 51% Stress 45% 42% 47% 51% 49% 51% 50% 31% 48% 44% 46% Worry 41% 39% 44% 42% 43% 49% 44% 33% 42% 41% 42% Anxiety 33% 33% 34% 38% 32% 39% 33% 28% 32% 34% 33% Boredom 27% 31% 23% 39% 30% 31% 19% 17% 21% 25% 28% Physical Pain 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 24% 29% 27% 26% 22% 27% Sadness 20% 18% 22% 26% 21% 19% 19% 18% 21% 20% 20% Anger 17% 19% 15% 19% 17% 24% 16% 12% 16% 15% 19% Fear 11% 10% 12% 13% 14% 14% 7% 7% 12% 10% 12% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, January 2014 13
    • Drivers & Drinking we ask the right questions so you get the right answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
    • Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack your way to growth in 2014: e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm