Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2014
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Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2014

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Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers. ...

Our latest report is out on the spending, saving and borrowing intentions of Irish consumers.

Maybe there's a recovery under way...?

More here:

http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2014 Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing February 2014 © Amárach Research Economic Recovery Index 1
  • A Damp Start Did the rain put a dampener on the recovery? Our Economic Recovery Index eased back in February, after six months of continuous increases – albeit to 31.7, still the second highest level on record. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to see that sentiment about the economy didn’t change much since last month, but sentiment about personal ‘financial resilience’ did fall back – perhaps the consequence of a lot of 2013 bills coming due in January? No sentiment series continues in one direction for ever, so some easing is to be expected – as to whether it has any wider implications for the robustness of the recovery, next month’s ERI should tell a story… Economic Recovery Index 2
  • The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out nearly five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to February 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th-15th February 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – if you want us to conduct additional analyses (by brands etc) then feel free to get in touch. Economic Recovery Index 3
  • The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index has eased back: to 31.7 in February 2014, still the second highest on record: 35 30 25 20 15 10 0 Apr '09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb 5 Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 Economic Recovery Index 4
  • A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago: Jan ’14: 0% Jan ’14: 9% Jan ’14: 20% Jan ’14: 34% Feb ’14: 21% Jan ’14: 36% Economic Recovery Index Feb ’14: 0% Feb ’14: 7% Feb ’14: 33% Feb ’14: 39% 5
  • ERI Summary Tables I Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 The economic The economic The economic The economic The economic situation is situation is bad situation is Economic situation in situation is bad getting better but showing a good and Recovery Ireland is but has and showing few signs of almost fully Index getting worse stabilized clear signs of improvement recovered improvement 39 34 25 2 0 22.7 58 27 14 1 0 18.0 55 25 18 2 0 16.9 42 32 22 4 0 21.8 20 36 34 9 0 33.3 21 39 33 7 0 31.7 Economic Recovery Index 6
  • ERI Summary Tables II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Economic Recovery Index 42 24 26 27 41 38 I feel I am financially I am optimistic comfortable in spite of the enough to current make it economic through the situation recession 47 37 41 36 44 41 56 44 44 43 53 52 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me 53 45 49 42 46 47 7
  • ERI Summary Tables III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 I am more I am saving a My main I would be relaxed about lot more than financial priority happy to spending before is to pay off my borrow money money than I because of the debts as quickly from a bank if I was a few recession as possible need to months ago 18 26 62 29 14 27 61 24 17 29 57 26 16 26 54 24 23 25 57 24 22 25 58 24 Economic Recovery Index 8
  • Financial Resilience % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 10% 13% 10% 9% 15% 12% 18% 7% Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 33% 24% 27% 28% 32% 30% 33% 25% Neither/Nor 15% 16% 14% 11% 20% 18% 10% 14% 15% 15% 14% Slightly Disagree 22% 21% 22% 24% 22% 22% 21% 19% 22% 19% 24% Strongly Disagree 20% 18% 23% 17% 18% 20% 30% 18% 18% 14% 26% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 9
  • Still Saving % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession” February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 Weighted Sample 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524 Strongly Agree 9% 9% 8% 16% 10% 8% 7% 3% 8% 9% 8% Slightly Agree 17% 18% 15% 24% 21% 15% 14% 11% 16% 18% 15% Neither/Nor 21% 22% 20% 19% 20% 19% 16% 27% 20% 25% 17% Slightly Disagree 21% 19% 22% 22% 21% 20% 22% 20% 22% 21% 21% Strongly Disagree 31% 29% 33% 15% 27% 37% 39% 37% 31% 25% 38% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 10
  • The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr '09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb 10% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 11
  • The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to February 2014 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger Feb Dec Oct Aug June Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug June Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug June Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug June Apr Feb Dec Oct Aug Jun 0% Apr '09 5% Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 Economic Recovery Index 12
  • Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: February 2014 February 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1001 495 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 478 524 Enjoyment 50% 48% 52% 51% 44% 43% 51% 60% 50% 55% 46% Happiness 49% 45% 53% 60% 47% 45% 44% 50% 46% 49% 48% Stress 44% 42% 45% 53% 49% 50% 41% 30% 44% 44% 44% Worry 37% 35% 39% 47% 34% 37% 35% 33% 38% 36% 38% Anxiety 32% 29% 34% 42% 30% 29% 29% 30% 31% 34% 30% Boredom 27% 26% 27% 42% 30% 23% 25% 17% 25% 24% 29% Physical Pain 21% 20% 23% 20% 15% 18% 26% 28% 22% 19% 24% Sadness 18% 16% 21% 24% 19% 19% 16% 14% 19% 17% 19% Anger 16% 15% 17% 19% 17% 18% 17% 11% 18% 14% 17% Fear 10% 10% 11% 14% 8% 11% 8% 9% 14% 9% 11% Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, February 2014 13
  • Drivers & Drinking we ask the right questions so you get the right answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
  • Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want maximize the prize in 2014: e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm