Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2012

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A survey of 1,000 Irish adults about their spending, saving and borrowing intentions - and their wider perceptions of the economy and its outlook.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index February 2012

  1. 1. Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing February 2012 © Amárach ResearchEconomic Recovery Index 1
  2. 2. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to February 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 6th-12th February 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The consumer outlook has improved slightly at the start of the year: Jan’12: 0% Feb’12: 0% Jan’12: 2% Feb’12: 2% Jan’12: 58% Feb’12: 55% Jan’12: 16% Feb’12: 18% Jan’12: 24% Feb’12: 24%Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. The Stages of Recovery Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group: ABC1 C2DE FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524 The economic situation in Ireland is 54% 49% 58% 32% 52% 63% 66% 56% 49% 58% getting worse The economic situation is bad but 24% 28% 20% 29% 28% 19% 15% 26% 24% 23% has stabilized The economic situation is bad but 18% 18% 17% 32% 15% 14% 16% 15% 22% 14% showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and * 1% 0 1% * 0 0 * * * almost fully recovered from the recession Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI stood at 16.9 in February 2012, the highest level since October 2011: Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41% 43% 39% 48% 41%44% 42%43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28% 34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23% 22% 21% 26% 26% 18% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Jan12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb July July July Jan Jan May May May Mar Mar I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 49% 51% 55% 54%52% 53% 50% 46% 41% 44% 42% 39% 45% 44% 44% 33% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Jan12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45% 45% 41% 41% 41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39% 48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38% 38% 34% 33% 37% 45% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan12 June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50% 49% 46% 49% 45% 45% 49% 52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 44% 43% 46% 53% 51% 50% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr10 Apr 09 Apr 11 Jan12 June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43%42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12%16% 18% 20% 11% 14% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan12 June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July May May Mar Mar Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Apr10 Apr 11 Jan12 June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July May May Mar Mar Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Job Issues % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am less worried about losing my job than I was before” ABC1 C2DE FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524Strongly Agree 8% 10% 6% 8% 12% 7% 7% 6% 9% 7%Slightly Agree 11% 13% 8% 10% 16% 15% 11% 5% 12% 10%Neither/Nor 25% 25% 24% 25% 21% 26% 26% 26% 28% 21%Slightly Disagree 14% 13% 16% 12% 13% 16% 19% 12% 17% 11%Strongly Disagree 23% 22% 24% 21% 26% 28% 25% 17% 19% 27% Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: February 2010, 2011, 2012 & January 2012 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 29% •Debt 18% 14% 14% 17% 26% 27% 24% •Borrowing Feb10 Feb11 Jan12 Feb12 Feb10 Feb11 Jan12 Feb12 Now is a good time to Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 62% 61% 57% 57% 62% 61% 61% 58% 29% 24% 24% 26% Feb10 Feb11 Jan12 Feb12 Feb10 Feb11 Jan12 Feb12 Feb10 Feb11 Jan12 Feb12 Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. Room for a View % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I think that now is a good time to buy a house for those who want to” ABC1 C2DE FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524Strongly Agree 31% 32% 31% 28% 32% 28% 36% 32% 29% 33%Slightly Agree 29% 30% 29% 27% 31% 33% 22% 30% 30% 28%Neither/Nor 11% 10% 11% 17% 10% 8% 11% 9% 11% 11%Slightly Disagree 11% 12% 9% 8% 11% 15% 7% 11% 12% 10%Strongly Disagree 13% 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 22% 14% 12% 15% Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to February 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% Jan 12 June June Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Nov Dec Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Oct Oct Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Sept Sept Sept May Jun Jan Mar Jan Mar Jul May May Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to February 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb June Jun Jul Jan Jan Jan 12 Mar Mar May May May Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct July Oct July Oct Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec June Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: February 2012 ABC1 C2DE FEBRUARY 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1001 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 524Enjoyment 55% 57% 52% 49% 57% 46% 60% 61% 60% 51%Happiness 51% 50% 51% 62% 48% 41% 54% 50% 54% 48%Stress 41% 41% 42% 51% 45% 51% 41% 25% 40% 42%Worry 38% 37% 40% 41% 42% 45% 35% 31% 36% 40%Anxiety 29% 28% 31% 24% 34% 29% 30% 28% 30% 29%Boredom 24% 25% 24% 48% 29% 22% 17% 11% 25% 24%Physical Pain 22% 22% 21% 17% 21% 22% 23% 24% 17% 26%Sadness 18% 19% 17% 20% 23% 16% 16% 16% 18% 19%Anger 15% 19% 11% 15% 17% 16% 19% 10% 15% 15%Fear 10% 11% 9% 8% 15% 11% 9% 6% 9% 11% Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. Seasons and Hope The February results for the Economic Recovery Index signal a steady, albeit modest improvement in several component measures. Especially encouraging is the improvement in indicators relating to people’s perceptions of how well placed they are to weather the continuing recession. As ever, the recession is not evenly distributed: older, middle aged adults are generally more negative than younger age groups. The results are tentative, but a continuation of this trend into March may well signal better momentum at the start of 2012 than we saw in late 2011 – and finally some good news for Ireland’s hard-pressed marketers.Economic Recovery Index 15
  16. 16. Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and international clients.Our team of 30 research & support staff haveworked with most of Ireland’s top 200companies. Every year we survey over100,000 people at home and abroad, as wellas running hundreds of focus groups.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer a uniquefield-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:
  17. 17. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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