Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2011

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing December 2011 © Amárach ResearchEconomic Recovery Index 1

The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our „emotional progress‟ towards recovery alongside our „economic progress‟. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported „happiness‟ and „enjoyment‟ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to December 2011. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 9th-15th December 2011 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2

A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement „best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now‟ (listed below) December 2011 saw a continuing deterioration in perceptions about the economy: Nov’11 0% Nov’11 0% Nov’11 2% Dec’11 2% Nov‘11 57% Dec‘11 59% Nov’11 17% Dec’11 15% Nov’11 24% Dec’11 24%Economic Recovery Index 3

The Stages of Recovery Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group:December 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+The economic situation inIreland is bad & getting 58% 55% 60% 39% 49% 67% 71%worseThe economic situation is 23% 24% 23% 36% 26% 19% 17%bad but has stabilizedThe economic situation isbad but showing a few 15% 16% 13% 17% 16% 12% 11%signs of improvementThe economic situation isgetting better and showing 2% 4% 1% 3% 5% 1% 0%clear signs of improvementThe economic situation isgood and almost fully 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%recovered from therecession Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 4

The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on „stages of recovery‟ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). In December 2011, the Recovery Indicator fell back to its level at the start of the year: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09 10 11 Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 5

Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41% 43% 39% 48% 42% 41%44% 42%43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 28% 34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 23% 22% 26% 18% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan Jan Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 47% 49% 55% 54%52% 53% 46% 41% 44% 42% 51% 50% 44% 39% 33% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 6

Recovery On Hold % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time”December 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+Strongly Agree 7% 9% 5% 12% 13% 5% 3%Slightly Agree 15% 14% 16% 29% 18% 11% 10%Neither/Nor 8% 9% 6% 9% 8% 10% 6%Slightly Disagree 24% 21% 26% 27% 24% 25% 21%Strongly Disagree 43% 44% 42% 15% 31% 48% 60% Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 7

Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45% 45% 41% 41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39% 48% 48%51% 47%48% 48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38% 38% 34% 33% 45% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50% 49% 46% 49% 45% 45% 52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 44% 43% 53% 51% 50% May May May Dec Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 11 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 8

Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43% 42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13%12% 18% 20% 11% 14% May May Dec Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 10 Apr 11 Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18%15% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% May May Dec Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 11 Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, November 2011Economic Recovery Index 9

Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: December 2009, 2010, 2011 & November 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving •Debt 17% 11% 16% 14% 26% 23% 26% 27% •Borrowing Dec09 Dec10 Nov11 Dec11 Dec09 Dec10 Nov11 Dec11 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 57% 58% 55% 56% 60% 55% 59% 54% 29% 23% 22% 21% Dec09 Dec10 Nov11 Dec11 Dec09 Dec10 Nov11 Dec11 Dec09 Dec10 Nov11 Dec11 Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 10

Reluctant Shoppers % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”December 2011 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+Strongly Agree 4% 5% 3% 6% 7% 3% 2%Slightly Agree 10% 10% 9% 13% 14% 4% 6%Neither/Nor 14% 14% 13% 18% 15% 12% 11%Slightly Disagree 26% 25% 26% 27% 24% 29% 26%Strongly Disagree 46% 44% 48% 35% 38% 51% 56% Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 11

The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 201170%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% Feb Feb Oct Oct Oct Jun Nov Jan July Nov Jan July Nov Dec Dec Dec June June Apr 09 Aug Apr 10 Aug Apr 11 Aug Sept Sept Sept Jul May Mar Mar May May Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 12

The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to December 201140%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Feb Feb Jun Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct Jan Jan May May May July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Jul Apr 11 Apr 09 Apr 10 June June Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 13

The Mood of the Nation 3 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: December 2011 All Adults Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+Enjoyment 52% 52% 51% 51% 47% 52% 44% 60%Happiness 48% 46% 51% 57% 45% 51% 42% 48%Stress 46% 45% 48% 56% 50% 55% 45% 31%Worry 45% 42% 49% 43% 53% 52% 46% 35%Anxiety 34% 32% 37% 46% 30% 38% 32% 28%Boredom 22% 22% 23% 39% 26% 19% 16% 14%Physical 21% 20% 23% 23% 17% 21% 23% 23%PainSadness 20% 17% 23% 23% 19% 22% 20% 17%Anger 19% 21% 18% 23% 25% 22% 15% 13%Fear 14% 15% 14% 12% 18% 19% 15% 10% Source: Amárach Research, December 2011Economic Recovery Index 14

Dealing With Uncertainty Our final Economic Recovery Index for 2011 sees a continuation of the negative shift noted in recent months. Although Irish consumers continue to be emotionally resilient, they are also increasingly financially cautious. Looking ahead to Q1 2012, it is clear that only certain sub-segments of the population are „insulated‟ from the uncertainties we all face. Businesses looking for domestic growth opportunities will need to refocus on those consumer groups that are ready, willing and able to buy – despite the economy. We will bring you more insights into domestic opportunities for growth in 2012...Economic Recovery Index 15

Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and international clients.Our team of 30 research & support staff haveworked with most of Ireland‟s top 200companies. Every year we survey over100,000 people at home and abroad, as wellas running hundreds of focus groups.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer a uniquefield-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2011

by Amárach Research on Dec 19, 2011

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index December 2011 — Presentation Transcript