• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2014
 

Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2014

on

  • 291 views

A special fifth anniversary edition of our Economic Recovery Index report - enjoy!

A special fifth anniversary edition of our Economic Recovery Index report - enjoy!

Statistics

Views

Total Views
291
Views on SlideShare
291
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2014 Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2014 Presentation Transcript

    • 1Economic Recovery Index Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing April 2014: special anniversary edition © Amárach Research
    • 2Economic Recovery Index Happy Birthday We have been tracking the mood of the nation with our Economic Recovery Index for five years this month. A lot has changed –on the economic and on the consumer front – but not everything. We have expanded this month’s commentary to reflect on the past five years and to analyse the economic situation of Irish consumers in more detail in order to identify those groups that are leading the recovery – or lagging it. Thank you to all our regular readers for your feedback on the ERI over these past few years, you have inspired us with lots of ideas for improvement and expansion in the months ahead.
    • 3Economic Recovery Index The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out five years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to April 2014. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 14th-21st April 2014 inclusive. The full data series is on our website – details at the end of this report.
    • Economic Recovery Index
    • 5Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). Our Index eased back to 33.2 in April 2014, falling back from last month’s record level: The Economic Recovery Index Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Apr'09 Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr despite this month’s fall back, the ERI remains at historically high levels
    • 6Economic Recovery Index A Matter of Measurement Mar ’14: 19% Apr ’14: 23% Mar ’14: 34% Apr ’14: 32% Mar ’14: 36% Apr ’14: 35% Mar ’14: 10% Apr ’14: 9% Mar ’14: 1% Apr ’14: 1% Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is the lowest since we began:
    • 7Economic Recovery Index ERI Summary Table Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? % choosing each statement: % The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse The economic situation is bad but has stabilized The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered Economic Recovery Index Apr-09 77 14 8 1 0 8.3 Apr-10 38 34 25 2 1 23.8 Apr-11 51 27 19 2 1 18.2 Apr-12 49 27 21 3 0 19.4 Apr-13 46 29 22 3 0 20.3 Mar-14 19 34 36 10 1 34.7 Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2 the false dawn of recovery in 2010 has been replaced by a more viable one in 2014
    • 8Economic Recovery Index Uneven Recovery Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’? (by sex, age, class, Dublin) Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 The economic situation in Ireland is getting worse 23% 24% 21% 23% 19% 24% 21% 26% 20% 19% 26% The economic situation is bad but has stabilized 32% 35% 30% 30% 39% 31% 35% 27% 32% 33% 31% The economic situation is bad but showing a few signs of improvement 36% 32% 39% 38% 31% 36% 39% 37% 36% 35% 37% The economic situation is getting better and showing clear signs of improvement 9% 9% 9% 9% 10% 8% 5% 11% 12% 12% 6% The economic situation is good and almost fully recovered from the recession 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% ERI Score 33.2 32.1 34.2 31.2 34.7 32.9 32.7 33.7 34.8 35.8 30.8
    • Consumer Impact
    • 10Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me Apr-09 34 48 57 59 Apr-10 43 47 52 53 Apr-11 24 39 47 48 Apr-12 31 42 51 50 Apr-13 25 35 40 44 Mar-14 37 40 49 45 Apr-14 35 40 49 43 despite signs of recovery, consumers feel more impacted by recession than before
    • 11Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago I am saving a lot more than before because of the recession My main financial priority is to pay off my debts as quickly as possible I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to Apr-09 15 Apr-10 21 28 59 31 Apr-11 14 27 58 24 Apr-12 20 30 59 28 Apr-13 15 23 57 21 Mar-14 23 24 58 26 Apr-14 24 24 56 26 indicators of consumer spending & borrowing intentions are stable but not rising
    • 12Economic Recovery Index Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III % agree strongly/slightly with selected statements: % I always buy the lowest price products or services I am always on the lookout for opportunities to switch to cheaper suppliers I have more choice than before when it comes to products and services I always buy Irish when I can Apr-13 57 71 52 52 May-13 58 69 54 54 Jun-13 55 70 55 51 Jul-13 56 70 52 53 Aug-13 57 70 53 53 Sep-13 59 72 53 54 Oct-13 58 69 52 51 Nov-13 56 69 55 51 Dec-13 54 68 54 53 Jan-14 59 74 56 54 Feb-14 56 70 57 52 Mar-14 57 68 56 48 Apr-14 56 69 54 50
    • 13Economic Recovery Index Insulated % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “Right now the recession is affecting other people more than me” Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 16% 14% 19% 20% 19% 13% 12% 16% 17% 21% 12% Slightly Agree 26% 26% 26% 25% 29% 25% 23% 28% 28% 31% 23% Neither/Nor 19% 21% 18% 19% 21% 17% 20% 19% 19% 16% 22% Slightly Disagree 19% 20% 18% 17% 16% 21% 24% 18% 19% 18% 20% Strongly Disagree 17% 16% 17% 12% 12% 21% 19% 19% 15% 13% 20%
    • 14Economic Recovery Index Price Sensitive % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I always buy the lowest price product or service” Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 26% 23% 30% 34% 24% 29% 24% 23% 28% 22% 30% Slightly Agree 30% 31% 29% 24% 33% 36% 32% 25% 31% 33% 27% Neither/Nor 20% 24% 15% 17% 22% 13% 22% 23% 20% 20% 19% Slightly Disagree 14% 13% 15% 11% 12% 13% 13% 19% 14% 16% 12% Strongly Disagree 5% 4% 6% 3% 5% 5% 8% 5% 3% 6% 5%
    • 15Economic Recovery Index Borrowing Intentions % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin): “I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I needed to” Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Strongly Agree 8% 10% 6% 7% 12% 9% 3% 7% 13% 8% 8% Slightly Agree 18% 18% 18% 21% 21% 19% 16% 15% 20% 23% 14% Neither/Nor 13% 15% 12% 16% 20% 13% 15% 6% 11% 13% 14% Slightly Disagree 23% 20% 26% 25% 23% 21% 21% 24% 20% 25% 21% Strongly Disagree 34% 34% 34% 24% 23% 35% 44% 44% 33% 29% 39%
    • Marketing Economics
    • 17Economic Recovery Index Discretionary Income Typically, how much money do you have left at the end of the month, before your next wage or salary payment?: Base: all adults April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Average left over €142 €165 €111 €116 €162 €136 €145 €124 €171 €179 €90 % saying zero 31% 29% 32% 21% 23% 33% 40% 35% 30% 27% 36% 25-34s are among the most financially resilient in terms of income
    • 18Economic Recovery Index Income Pressures Would you say you have: Base: all adults April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- More money left over than a few months ago 11% 13% 9% 16% 15% 10% 7% 9% 15% 13% 8% The same money left over than a few months ago 38% 39% 36% 39% 43% 37% 37% 31% 35% 40% 34% Less money left over than a few months ago 51% 47% 55% 45% 43% 53% 56% 60% 50% 46% 57% older age groups are experiencing the most pressure on incomes
    • 19Economic Recovery Index Income Sensitivity Please indicate how easily you would cope with a fall in monthly after tax income in each of three scenarios: €50/€100/€150 monthly decrease - % cope easily: Base: all adults April 2014 TOTAL 2012 TOTAL 2014 Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- % Easily: €50 21% 24% 25% 23% 22% 34% 22% 18% 21% 31% 18% % Easily: €100 11% 12% 14% 10% 12% 20% 12% 7% 9% 17% 7% % Easily: €150 8% 9% 10% 7% 11% 15% 6% 6% 5% 12% 5% consumers are slightly more resilient to income shocks than 2 years ago
    • 20Economic Recovery Index Rainy Day Funds Which of the following best describes the total value of funds that you currently have in savings or investments (excluding any formal pension plans)? Base: all regular savers April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- % save regularly 48% 49% 48% 61% 58% 40% 39% 44% 51% 54% 43% Average value of savings & investments €000s €25.5 €37.0 €13.0 €7.4 €10.6 €13.2 €39.5 €58.7 €32.4 €32.2 €17.7 older consumers are less likely to save regularly & are living off past savings
    • 21Economic Recovery Index Positive Equity Thinking about the value of your home today, do you think it is worth more than you currently owe on your mortgage, about the same as you currently owe on your mortgage, or less than you currently owe on your mortgage? Base: all responsible – solely or jointly – for paying mortgage on their home April 2014 TOTAL 2012 TOTAL 2014 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin Rest of L’ster ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Value of home is worth more than you currently owe on you mortgage 42% 47% 45% 37% 28% 55% 68% 57% 37% 49% 45% Value of home is about the same as you currently owe on you mortgage 18% 14% 10% 29% 16% 12% 5% 10% 17% 13% 16% Value of home is less than you currently owe on you mortgage 30% 27% 23% 26% 50% 24% 9% 23% 34% 28% 26% Don’t know 10% 12% 22% 8% 6% 9% 19% 11% 11% 10% 13% there has been a significant jump in positive equity over the past 2 years
    • 22Economic Recovery Index Domestic Balance Sheet How would you describe your situation in terms of your financial assets (e.g.: house, car, savings, pensions) versus your financial liabilities (e.g.: mortgage, loans, debts)? Would you say that... Base: all adults April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Your financial assets exceed your financial liabilities 31% 36% 26% 19% 21% 23% 30% 53% 30% 35% 27% Your financial assets and liabilities roughly match each other 35% 34% 35% 38% 41% 31% 35% 28% 39% 32% 37% Your financial liabilities exceed your financial assets 22% 23% 22% 14% 24% 36% 25% 15% 18% 21% 24% Don't know 12% 7% 17% 30% 13% 9% 10% 4% 13% 12% 12% The Irish claim a positive ‘balance sheet’, but don’t forget: debt is a fact, wealth is an opinion
    • Mood of the Nation
    • 24Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2014 Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
    • 25Economic Recovery Index The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to April 2014 Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Apr'09 May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'10 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'11 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'12 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'13 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan'14 Feb Mar Apr Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
    • 26Economic Recovery Index Changing Moods Source: Amárach Research, April 2014 April 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 F50+ C2DE F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 507 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523 Enjoyment 56% 60% 53% 60% 53% 48% 61% 61% 59% 59% 54% Happiness 53% 50% 57% 65% 51% 46% 51% 54% 54% 57% 50% Stress 40% 40% 40% 46% 43% 48% 41% 27% 39% 38% 42% Worry 37% 37% 37% 36% 40% 39% 39% 33% 35% 34% 40% Anxiety 30% 31% 28% 29% 37% 30% 30% 23% 25% 29% 30% Boredom 23% 22% 24% 43% 27% 21% 16% 14% 17% 22% 25% Physical Pain 25% 25% 24% 21% 21% 24% 29% 28% 24% 20% 29% Sadness 19% 16% 21% 20% 21% 21% 17% 16% 18% 18% 20% Anger 16% 20% 12% 19% 18% 20% 15% 10% 15% 14% 18% Fear 10% 9% 10% 11% 14% 11% 10% 5% 9% 8% 11% Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2014
    • Amárach Outlook
    • 28Economic Recovery Index Recovering Opportunity Our work at Amárach regularly requires us to help clients identify new growth opportunities in the face of wider economic constraints. From our latest findings and supplementary analyses we can see a widening generation gap in terms of the Irish consumer market: > 25-35s have more discretionary income and are saving more of it > over 45s have more wealth but are experiencing greater income pressure. We hope this 5th anniversary edition of the Economic Recovery Index has given you some food for thought about the opportunities that lie ahead over the remainder of 2014.
    • we ask better questions so you get better answers Image: http://yourawakenedself.com/tag/jacob-nordby/
    • Trends Report Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want maximize the prize in 2014: e. info@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm