Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012

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Our monthly assessment of the mood of the Irish nation, from emotional wellbeing to saving & spending to the outlook for the economy.

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Amárach Economic Recovery Index April 2012

  1. 1. Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing 3rd Anniversary Edition April 2012Economic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1
  2. 2. The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to April 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 20th to 25th April 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2
  3. 3. A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The consumer outlook fell back in April, after improving in March: Mar’12: 0% Apr’12: 0% Mar’12: 4% Apr’12: 3% Mar’12: 43% Apr’12: 49% Mar’12: 24% Apr’12: 21% Mar’12: 29% Apr’12: 27%Economic Recovery Index 3
  4. 4. The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI fell back to 19.4 in April, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 09 10 11 12 12 Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 4
  5. 5. The Stages of Recovery Perceptions of the current stage of recovery by demographic group: ABC1 C2DE April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523 The economic situation in Ireland is 49% 51% 45% 33% 47% 56% 55% 48% 43% 53% getting worse The economic situation is bad but 27% 23% 31% 36% 32% 27% 18% 23% 31% 24% has stabilized The economic situation is bad but 21% 21% 21% 24% 16% 14% 23% 26% 22% 19% showing a few signs of improvement The economic situation is getting better and showing 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% clear signs of improvement The economic situation is good and * * 0 1% 0 0 0 0 * 0 almost fully recovered from the recession Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 5
  6. 6. Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 44% 42% 41% 43% 46% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 28% 31% 30% 34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26% 26% 18% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May Mar Mar Mar I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54%55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48%47% 47%48%48%47%49% 51% 50% 51% 52% 53% 55%54% 50% 46% 41% 44% 42%39%45%44% 44% 33% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 6
  7. 7. Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45%45% 41%41% 42% 41%40% 39%37%36%39%40% 39% 51% 47% 48% 48% 48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34%38%38%34%33%37% 45% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Sept Sept Sept June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 53% 56%55% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49%45%47%48% 50% 49%46%49%45%45% 50% 49%48% 52% 54% 52% 45%45% 44% 43%46% 53% 51% 50% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 11 Apr10 Apr12 Sept Sept Sept June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 7
  8. 8. Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43%42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 24% 23% 35% 28% 27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16% 18% 20% 11% 14% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Sept Sept June June Feb Feb Feb July July Oct 09 May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 25% 22% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 11 Apr10 Apr12 Sept Sept June June Feb Feb Feb July July Oct 09 May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 8
  9. 9. Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: April 2009*, 2010, 2011, 2012 & March 2012 * not all statements asked in 2009 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 30% •Debt 15% 21% 14% 18% 20% 28% 27% 29% •Borrowing Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Mar12 Apr12 Apr10 Apr11 Mar12 Apr12 Now is a good time to Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 59% 58% 59% 64% 62% 66% 55% 60% 31% 24% 24% 28% Apr10 Apr11 Mar12 Apr12 Apr10 Apr11 Mar12 Apr12 Apr10 Apr11 Mar12 Apr12 Source: Amárach Research, February 2012Economic Recovery Index 9
  10. 10. Feeling Flaithulach % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” ABC1 C2DE April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Strongly Agree 5% 8% 2% 6% 4% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5%Slightly Agree 15% 18% 13% 15% 16% 16% 11% 17% 12% 19%Neither/Nor 14% 15% 14% 23% 15% 9% 10% 14% 17% 11%Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 29% 27% 29% 25% 24% 23% 30% 22%Strongly Disagree 39% 36% 42% 28% 35% 43% 51% 39% 36% 41% Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 10
  11. 11. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to April 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% June June Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Nov Dec Oct Oct Oct Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Sept Sept Sept May Mar Mar Mar Jun Jan Jan Jan Jul May May Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 11
  12. 12. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to April 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Apr12 June Jul Jun Jan Jan Jan May Mar May Mar May Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Oct Oct Nov Dec Nov Dec Nov Dec Sept Sept Sept July July June Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 12
  13. 13. Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2012 ABC1 C2DE April 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 477 523Happiness 55% 56% 55% 54% 55% 52% 58% 57% 54% 56%Enjoyment 54% 53% 56% 49% 55% 49% 61% 56% 58% 51%Stress 45% 42% 48% 51% 55% 48% 46% 30% 49% 41%Worry 40% 37% 44% 47% 42% 39% 42% 35% 40% 40%Anxiety 30% 26% 34% 36% 33% 30% 29% 25% 32% 28%Boredom 27% 27% 27% 50% 31% 23% 22% 15% 26% 28%Physical Pain 26% 27% 25% 22% 27% 19% 26% 31% 21% 29%Sadness 18% 16% 20% 28% 18% 14% 13% 17% 17% 19%Anger 15% 16% 14% 20% 15% 16% 16% 10% 12% 18% 12% 12% 13% 15% 19% 10% 11% 9% 12% 13%Fear Source: Amárach Research, April 2012Economic Recovery Index 13
  14. 14. Ups & Downs We have been tracking the mood of Ireland’s consumers for three years now – from the depth of the recession back in 2009. Much has changed – though not everything: the Irish people have retained a degree of zen-like emotional stability throughout the past three years, even as the fortunes of the economy have fluctuated. The modest reversal of the improving trend since the start of 2012 is one to watch: although we are generally more positive about the state of the economy than we were three years ago, we have not returned to the levels of confidence about it all ‘ending soon’ that prevailed not so long ago.Economic Recovery Index 14
  15. 15. Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and international clients.Our team of 30 research & support staff haveworked with most of Ireland’s top 200companies. Every year we survey over100,000 people at home and abroad, as wellas running hundreds of focus groups.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer a uniquefield-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:
  16. 16. Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

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