Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing June 2012Economic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1

The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to June 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 18th to 24th June 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2

A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The economic outlook has fallen back steadily since March: May’12: 0% June’12: 0% May’12: 2% June’12: 1% May’12: 48% June’12: 50% May’12: 24% June’12: 20% May’12: 26% June’12: 29%Economic Recovery Index 3

The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI fell back to 18.2 in June, down from a recent high of 22.3 in March 2012: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune 09 10 11 12 12 Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 4

Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 44% 42% 46% 41% 43% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 28% 30%31% 34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26% 25% 25% 26% 18% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May May Mar Mar Mar I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54%55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48%47% 47%48%48%47%49% 50%51%47% 51% 52% 53% 55%54% 50% 46% 41% 44% 42%39%45%44% 43% 44% 33% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 5

Fainter Hearted % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation” ABC1 C2DE June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 13% 8% 9% 14% 15% 9%Slightly Agree 31% 30% 32% 37% 28% 25% 30% 35% 35% 28%Neither/Nor 17% 20% 14% 19% 17% 18% 14% 16% 19% 15%Slightly Disagree 22% 20% 24% 19% 25% 29% 18% 18% 19% 25%Strongly Disagree 18% 19% 17% 12% 14% 19% 28% 16% 13% 22% Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 6

Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45%45% 41%41% 41%40%42%38% 39%37%36%39%40% 39% 51% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34%38%38%34%33%37% 36% 45% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Sept Sept Sept June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60%61%60% 56% 53% 56%55% 55% 55% 53% 59% 49%45%47%48%50% 49%46%49%45%45% 49%48%50%45% 52% 54% 52% 45%45% 44% 43%46% 45% 53% 51% 50% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 09 Apr 11 Apr10 Apr12 Sept Sept Sept June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 7

Feeling Uncomfortable % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524Strongly Agree 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 5% 9% 11% 12% 6%Slightly Agree 27% 26% 28% 32% 22% 24% 25% 31% 34% 21%Neither/Nor 13% 16% 9% 12% 15% 14% 7% 13% 13% 12%Slightly Disagree 26% 26% 26% 26% 30% 25% 24% 24% 25% 27%Strongly Disagree 24% 22% 26% 17% 22% 31% 33% 18% 14% 32% Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 8

Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43%42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 23% 24% 35% 28%27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16% 11% 14% 12% 18% 20% 14% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Sept Sept June June June Feb Feb Feb July July Oct 09 May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 22% 25% 19% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 17% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr 11 Apr10 Apr12 Sept Sept June June June Feb Feb Feb July July Oct 09 May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 9

Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: June 2010, 2011, 2012 & May 2012 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving •Debt 22% 14% 18% 15% 24% 25% 27% 25% •Borrowing June10 June11 May12 June12 June10 June11 May12 June12 Now is a good time to Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 68% 63% 61% 59% 56% 60% 60% 55% 30% 27% 23% 23% June10 June11 May12 June12 June10 June11 May12 June12 June10 June11 May12 June12 Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 10

De-Leveraging % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “Paying off my debts is my main priority” ABC1 C2DE June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524Strongly Agree 35% 36% 34% 16% 38% 40% 44% 36% 33% 37%Slightly Agree 20% 21% 20% 25% 18% 18% 22% 20% 20% 20%Neither/Nor 14% 17% 12% 17% 16% 14% 12% 13% 16% 13%Slightly Disagree 7% 8% 7% 8% 6% 10% 5% 7% 7% 7%Strongly Disagree 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 9% 7% 7% 7% Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 11

The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to June 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% June June June Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Nov Dec Oct Oct Oct Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Sept Sept Sept May May Mar Mar Mar Jun Jan Jan Jan Jul May May Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 12

The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to June 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Apr12 June June Jul Jan Jun Jan Jan May Mar May Mar May Mar May Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Oct Oct Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec Sept Nov Dec July July June Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 13

Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: June 2012 ABC1 C2DE June 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- 1002 495 507 169 223 187 156 266 478 524Enjoyment 54% 54% 54% 57% 49% 44% 49% 67% 62% 47%Happiness 52% 52% 52% 61% 52% 43% 47% 56% 54% 50%Stress 42% 41% 43% 47% 54% 47% 41% 27% 40% 44%Worry 39% 38% 40% 43% 45% 41% 43% 27% 35% 42%Anxiety 31% 30% 31% 36% 31% 31% 32% 26% 30% 31%Boredom 28% 28% 28% 51% 34% 21% 26% 15% 28% 28%Physical Pain 24% 22% 26% 26% 22% 20% 22% 29% 22% 26%Sadness 20% 17% 23% 22% 26% 17% 15% 19% 16% 24%Anger 16% 19% 14% 21% 22% 18% 15% 7% 14% 18%Fear 9% 9% 10% 8% 15% 10% 9% 6% 7% 11% Source: Amárach Research, June 2012Economic Recovery Index 14

News From Abroad There has been a measurable decline in the economic outlook among Irish consumers – especially in relation to optimism about the end of the recession. Their emotional resilience remains strong, but the economic impact of this shift in sentiment cannot be ignored. Marketers need to focus on those segments insulated from the worst of the economic turbulence (the tables in this report should help) especially in relation to customer loyalty and profitable pricing. Take nothing for granted – and make sure your brand positioning fits with the dominant (still positive) emotions of the Irish people.Economic Recovery Index 15

Let’s Get Visual If you find Amárach’s Economic Recovery Index useful (and we know many of you do) then you might be interested in our data visualisation initiative with Delphi Analytics. We have partnered to create an extraordinarily powerful resource online – for free – to enable marketers and others to look at the historical trend in the ERI going back to April 2009 by demographic group, main bank etc. Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual- analytics/economic-recovery-index/Economic Recovery Index 16

Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and internationalclients. We specialise in turning informationinto insight; and insight into foresight.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer aunique field-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amarach Economic Recovery Index June 2012

by Amárach Research on Jun 26, 2012

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