Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing July 2012Economic Recovery Index © Amárach Research1

The Emotional Recovery We have been reporting our monthly Economic Recovery Index since April 2009. We set out three years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. This report summarises our Economic Recovery Index results from April 2009 to July 2012. The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 13th to 19th July 2012 inclusive.Economic Recovery Index 2

A Matter of Measurement Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below) The economic outlook has bounced back to the level last seen in March: June’12: 0% July’12: 1% June’12: 1% July’12: 3%June’12: 50% July’12: 42% June’12: 20% July’12: 23% June’12: 29% July’12: 31%Economic Recovery Index 3

The Economic Recovery Index Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak). The ERI rose to 22.5 in July, similar to the recent high of 22.3 in March 2012: 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJune July 09 10 11 12 12 Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 4

Recovery Outlook 1 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 44% 42% 46% 41% 43% 41% 42%43% 42%42% 28% 30%31% 27% 34% 31% 23%26%24%25%24% 23%26%24%26%26%23%22%21%26% 25%25% 26%18% Aug Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July Jan Jan Jan May May May May Mar Mar Mar I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54%55% 65% 55% 53% 57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48%47% 47%48%48%47%49% 50%51%47% 51% 52% 53% 55%54% 50% 46% 41% 44% 42%39%45%44% 45% 43% 44% 33% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Apr12 Sept Sept Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jun Feb June Feb June Feb June July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 5

Fainter Hearted % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time” ABC1 C2DE July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523Strongly Agree 7% 8% 7% 11% 10% 9% 4% 4% 7% 7%Slightly Agree 19% 22% 17% 26% 19% 21% 17% 16% 20% 19%Neither/Nor 10% 11% 10% 15% 14% 10% 10% 6% 10% 11%Slightly Disagree 23% 23% 23% 23% 25% 22% 22% 23% 24% 22%Strongly Disagree 34% 34% 34% 20% 26% 33% 42% 45% 33% 35% Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 6

Recovery Outlook 2 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45%45% 41%41% 41%40%42%38% 38% 39%37%36%39%40% 39% 51% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32%34% 34% 34%38%38%34%33%37% 36% 45% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr12 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60%61%60% 56% 53% 55% 56%55% 55% 53% 59% 49%45%47%48%50% 49%46%49%45%45% 49%48%50%45%45% 52% 54% 52% 45%45% 44% 43%46% 43% 53%51% 50% Aug Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Sept Apr10 Apr12 Apr 09 Apr 11 June June June Jun Feb Feb Feb July July July July May May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 7

Feeling Uncomfortable % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession” ABC1 C2DE July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523Strongly Agree 9% 11% 8% 10% 7% 10% 5% 13% 11% 8%Slightly Agree 29% 30% 28% 28% 28% 29% 23% 34% 32% 26%Neither/Nor 12% 13% 12% 16% 17% 10% 10% 10% 13% 12%Slightly Disagree 24% 26% 22% 22% 24% 23% 32% 21% 24% 24%Strongly Disagree 23% 18% 29% 23% 22% 26% 27% 20% 17% 29% Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 8

Recovery Outlook 3 % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43%42% 30% 40%39% 33% 25% 21% 17% 25% 20% 23% 24% 35% 28%27% 16% 16% 15% 13% 12% 12% 16% 17% 11% 14% 12% 18% 20% 14% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Apr12 Apr 10 Apr 11 June June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21%21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 17% 19% 22% 25% 19% 20% 16% 15% 15% 18% 15% 15% 19% 17% 22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% Nov Aug Nov Aug Nov Oct Oct Dec Dec Dec Sept Sept Apr10 Apr12 Apr 11 June June June Feb Feb Feb Oct 09 July July July May May May Mar Mar Mar Jan Jan Jan Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 9

Financial Sentiment Indicators % of Irish adults who agree with each statement: July 2010, 2011, 2012 & June 2012 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving •Debt 20% 17% 15% 18% 27% 26% 25% 25% •Borrowing July10 July11 June12 July12 July10 July11 June12 July12 Now is a good time to Paying off debts is my I would be happy to buy a house for those main financial priority borrow from a bank if I who want to need to 62% 64% 62% 63% 66% 59% 55% 56% 30% 26% 25% 23% July10 July11 June12 July12 July10 July11 June12 July12 July10 July11 June12 July12 Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 10

De-Leveraging % of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement: “I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago” ABC1 C2DE July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50-Weighted Sample 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523Strongly Agree 5% 7% 4% 9% 7% 4% 1% 5% 5% 6%Slightly Agree 12% 13% 11% 13% 16% 13% 8% 11% 13% 12%Neither/Nor 18% 21% 16% 26% 15% 14% 17% 21% 19% 18%Slightly Disagree 25% 25% 25% 20% 30% 26% 22% 24% 29% 21%Strongly Disagree 38% 32% 43% 27% 31% 43% 50% 38% 33% 42% Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 11

The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 201270%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10% 0% June June June Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr12 Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Nov Dec July Oct Oct Oct Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Sept Sept Sept May May Mar Mar Mar Jun Jan Jan Jan Jul May May Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 12

The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: April 2009 to July 201240%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 5% 0% Aug Aug Aug Feb Feb Feb Apr12 June June Jul Jun Jan Jan Jan May Mar May Mar May Mar May Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dec Oct Nov Dec Sept Sept Sept July July July June Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 13

Changing Moods Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes: July 2012 ABC1 C2DE July 2012 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ F50+ F50- 1002 495 507 169 223 188 156 266 478 523Enjoyment 58% 60% 56% 63% 53% 51% 60% 63% 63% 53%Happiness 52% 52% 52% 52% 56% 54% 48% 50% 54% 50%Stress 39% 38% 40% 41% 48% 47% 38% 25% 41% 37%Worry 35% 33% 37% 36% 41% 40% 36% 26% 36% 34%Anxiety 27% 26% 27% 28% 30% 29% 25% 23% 31% 23%Boredom 27% 28% 27% 53% 28% 24% 20% 17% 27% 27%Physical Pain 22% 22% 22% 22% 17% 20% 24% 26% 21% 23%Sadness 19% 15% 23% 19% 23% 14% 16% 21% 20% 18%Anger 15% 15% 15% 16% 19% 16% 11% 10% 16% 13%Fear 10% 9% 10% 15% 10% 12% 8% 5% 12% 7% Source: Amárach Research, July 2012Economic Recovery Index 14

Better News From Abroad There was a marked improvement in consumer sentiment in July – buoyed up it would seem by the EU Summit at the end of June which promises a better deal for Ireland. This is shown in the rise in the percentage of people in our survey who are more optimistic as a result of ‘news from abroad’. After June’s pessimistic turn it is encouraging to see a return to levels of positivity seen at the start of the year – but it’s all relative: the start of the year wasn’t all that great… Nevertheless, Irish marketers and business people need all the positivity they can get right now, and our latest Economic Recovery Index provides at least some brightness despite the dull summer weather.Economic Recovery Index 15

Let’s Get Visual If you find Amárach’s Economic Recovery Index useful (and we know many of you do) then you might be interested in our data visualisation initiative with Delphi Analytics. We have partnered to create an extraordinarily powerful resource online – for free – to enable marketers and others to look at the historical trend in the ERI going back to April 2009 by demographic group, main bank etc. Find out more here: http://delphianalytics.ie/visual- analytics/economic-recovery-index/Economic Recovery Index 16

Drivers & DrinkingAbout Amárach ResearchWe are an independent market researchagency, providing a full range of researchservices to our Irish and internationalclients. We specialise in turning informationinto insight; and insight into foresight.Our experienced team of directors andexecutives manage online, face-to-face andcati surveys; as well as qualitative researchincluding focus groups, in-depths andethnographic studies. We also offer aunique field-only service to universities andinternational agencies.Amárach Research is proud to be:

Trends ReportCall us on 01 410 5200 if you want your business to bounce forward to success: Mark Nolan Managing Director or Michael McLoughlin Chief Executive or Gerard O’Neill Chairmanfor a confidential discussion about your needs and toexplore how we can help you succeed through world class market research. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com w. www.amarach.com b. www.amarach.com/blog t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amarach Economic Recovery Index July 2012

by Amárach Research on Aug 01, 2012

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