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AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October  2011
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AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011

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A survey of 1,000 Irish people every month about their views on the economy, their spending and savings plans, and their emotional well being.

A survey of 1,000 Irish people every month about their views on the economy, their spending and savings plans, and their emotional well being.

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  • 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator October 2011 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  • 2. 2The Emotional Recovery • We have been reporting our monthly Recovery Indicator since April 2009. • We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. • Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. • But we are still in recession – and the path to recovery still lies some way ahead. • We will help you along that path.
  • 3. 3 Timing Recovery • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one.Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely. • This report summarises the AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator results from April 2009 (when it began) to October 2011. • The most recent fieldwork was conducted during 10th-16th October 2011 inclusive.
  • 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  • 5. 5 A Matter of Measurement• October 2011 saw a slight month-on-month improvement in perceptions about the current stage of the country’s economic cycle: Sept’11 0% Oct’11 0% Sept’11 1% Oct’11 2% Sept‘11 48% Oct‘11 42% Sept’11 21% Oct’11 25% Sept’11 30% Oct’11 31%
  • 6. 6 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).• In October 2011, the Recovery Indicator continued its recovery from the recent low point in August3025201510 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct 09 10 11
  • 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41% 43% 39% 48% 41%44% 42%43%46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28% 34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 23% 26% 24% 26% 26% 26% 18% May May May Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan Jan Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 65% 55% 53%57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 48% 47% 49% 47% 48% 48% 47% 55% 54%52% 53% 46% 41% 44% 51% 50% 44% 33% May May May Dec Dec July July July Sept Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 8. 8 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 50% 47% 45% 45% 41% 41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 39% 48% 48%51% 47%48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 46% 32% 34% 34% 34% 38% 38% 45% May May May Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53% 50%59% 52% 54% 52% 45% 45% 49% 45% 47% 48% 44% 49% 46% 49% 45% 53% 51% 50% May May May Dec Dec July July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 09 Apr 11 Oct Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 9. 9 Recovery Outlook 3 The news from other countries makes me more confident the recession will end soon: % agree strongly/slightly 46% 35% 36% 43% 43% 42% 30% 40% 39% 33% 25% 21% 25% 35% 28% 27% 17% 20% 16% 16% 15% 18% 20% 11% 14% May May Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 10 Apr 11 Mar Oct Mar Oct Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan I am less worried about losing my job than I was before: % agree strongly/slightly 22% 21% 22% 21% 18% 23% 20% 21% 21% 18% 18% 17% 21% 19% 17% 16% 15% 15%22% 20% 17% 20% 15% 17% 13% May May Dec Dec July July Oct 09 Feb Sept Feb Sept Apr 11 Mar Oct Mar Oct Apr10 Nov Nov June June Aug Aug Jan Jan
  • 10. 10Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: October 2009, 2010, 2011 & September 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 32% •Debt 16% 15% 14% 14% 25% 23% 22% •Borrowing Oct09 Oct10 Sept11 Oct11 Oct09 Oct10 Sept11 Oct11 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those borrow from a bank if I who want to61% need to 59% 59% 54% 63% 62% 57% 59% 33% 27% 23% 23%Oct09 Oct10 Sept11 Oct11 Oct09 Oct10 Sept11 Oct11 Oct09 Oct10 Sept11 Oct11
  • 11. 11 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to October 201170%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10%0% Feb Feb Oct Oct Oct Jun Nov Jan July Nov Jan July Dec Dec June June Apr 09 Aug Apr 10 Aug Apr 11 Aug Sept Sept Sept Jul May Mar Mar May May
  • 12. 12 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to October 201140%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger5%0% Feb Feb Jun Sept Oct Sept Oct Sept Oct Jan Jan May May May July July Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Aug Mar Mar Jul Apr 11 Apr 09 Apr 10 June June
  • 13. 13Which Way? • Our Recovery Indicator continued to recover this month from its low point in August – and is currently back to where it was this time last year. • That said, most of the behavioural and intentional indicators that we track have changed little – as if consumers are undecided as to which way to turn. • One worry is the rise in the negative emotions that we track in recent months – suggesting that some consumers may be running out of road. • Stay tuned to future issues of our Recovery Indicator to find out which way the Irish consumer – and the country as a whole – will turn...
  • 14. 14 Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill Chairman Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 telephone: (01) 410 5200 email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com website: www.amarach.com blog: www.amarach.com/blogtwitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch

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