AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011

The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011 Results © Amárach Research 2009

2 Timing RecoveryBusiness Cycle Peaks & Troughs • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to January 2011 • The fieldwork was conducted 10th-17th January 2011

3 A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

4 A Matter of Measurement• January 2011 has seen a modest recovery from December 2010 in terms the prospects for recovery, but remains low relative to this time last year. April’09 0% Jan’11 1% April’09 1% Jan’11 2% April’09 77% Jan‘11 56% April’09 8% Jan’11 18% April’09 14% Jan’11 23%

5 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).• The Indicator has recovered all the ground lost during November/December 2010. 30 27.1 26 25 25.3 24 22.7 23.8 23.8 23.5 20 19.6 19.2 17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3 17 17.3 16.3 15 15 12 10 8.3 7.3 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 10 11

6 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41% 43% 39% 41%44% 42%43% 46% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 34% 31% 26% 23% 26% 18% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 11 I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54% 55% 65% 55%57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 51% 48% 51% 55% 54%52% 53% 50% 46% 44% 33% 41% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 11

7 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45% 45% 50% 47% 41% 41% 48% 48%51% 47%48% 48% 46% 47% 43% 47% 45% 46% 39% 45% 32% 34% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 11 Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%59% 49% 52% 45% 45% 52% 53% 51% 50% 54% Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 11

8Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2010 & January 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 23% •Debt 11% 13% 22% •Borrowing Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to buy main financial priority I would be happy to a house for those who borrow from a bank if I want to 58% 59% need to 55% 58% 21% 22% Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11 Dec 10 Jan 11

9 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to January 201170%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10%0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 10 11

10 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to January 201140%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger5%0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 09 10 10 11

11Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com W. www.amarach.com B. www.amarach.com/blog

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AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2011

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