AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2010

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The latest issue of the AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator for January 2010 shows Irish consumers have become a lot more confident about the prospect of economic recovery than they were at the end of 2009.

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AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2010

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results © Amárach Research 2009 January 2010 Results
  2. 2. Timing Recovery <ul><li>All recessions end in recovery – so will this one </li></ul><ul><li>The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? </li></ul><ul><li>Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely </li></ul><ul><li>This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to January 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>The fieldwork was conducted on 8 th to 21 st January 2010 </li></ul>Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs
  3. 3. A Matter of Measurement <ul><li>Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ </li></ul><ul><li>Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle </li></ul>
  4. 4. A Matter of Measurement <ul><li>January 2010 recorded one of the strongest RI scores since April: when it comes to the economy, substantially more people think the situation is ‘bad but stable or improving’ than think it is ‘bad and getting worse’ </li></ul>
  5. 5. Recovery Indicator <ul><li>Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak) </li></ul><ul><li>The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, reflecting both a changing national ‘mood’ and a possible ‘seasonal boost’ </li></ul>
  6. 6. Recovery Outlook 1
  7. 7. Recovery Outlook 2
  8. 8. Other Sentiment Indicators from ARI Survey <ul><li>Percent of adults who agree with each statement: December 2009 & January 2010 </li></ul>
  9. 9. The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to January 2010
  10. 10. The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to January 2010
  11. 11. Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research 11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200 E. [email_address] W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com AIB Contact Details Ronan Sheridan Group Press Officer AIB Bankcentre Ballsbridge Dublin 4 T. (01) 641 4651 M. 086 388 0898

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