AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2010

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AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2010

  1. 1. The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2010 Results © Amárach Research 2009
  2. 2. 2 Timing Recovery Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely • This report summarises the Recovery Indicator results for April 2009 (when it began) to April 2010 • The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to 20th April 2010
  3. 3. 3 A Matter of Measurement • Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ • Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle
  4. 4. 4 A Matter of Measurement • The general sense in April’10 remains very consistent with March ‘10, albeit with a marginal increase in the recovery index. Similarly to March ‘10; when it comes to the economy, there is still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’. April’09 0% April’10 1% April’09 1% April10 2% April’09 77% April’10 38% April’09 8% April’10 25% April’09 14% April’10 34%
  5. 5. AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator • Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak) • The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010, more gradual growths are evident over the February to April periods. 30 27.1 25 23.8 22.7 23.5 20 19.6 17.8 18.4 17.8 18.3 16.3 17 15 15 10 8.3 5 0 Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr '10
  6. 6. 6 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 41% 43% 41% 42% 43% 41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 34% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51% 61% 55% 54% 52% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr
  7. 7. 7 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45% 45% 50% 47% 43% 47% 48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 56% 55% 53% 59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 55% 53% 52% Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr
  8. 8. 8 Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: March 2010 and April 2010 (unless otherwise stated) I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more Impact on: spending money than I than before because of the recession •Spending was a few months ago •Saving 36% •Debt 21% 28% 16% •Borrowing April '09 April '10 April '09 April '10 Paying off debts is my I would be happy to Now is a good time to buy main financial priority borrow from a bank if I a house* for those who need to want to 61% 59% 64% 53% 30% 31% March '10 April '10 March '10 April '10 April '09 April '10 * ‘a new house’ in 2009
  9. 9. 9 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to April 2010 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '09 '10 '10
  10. 10. 10 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to April 2010 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger 0% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '09 '10 '10
  11. 11. 11 Leading and Lagging the Recovery Looking back a year to April 2009, there have been a number of key changes: • A year ago, men were more confident than women that the economy was at a turning point for the better – one year on and women are now more confident than men (albeit both are considerably more confident than last year). • Young people are much more optimistic than older people about the recovery status of the economy, whereas 45-54 years olds remain less optimistic than others, just as they did last year – but they too are in a better place a year on. • Women are much more relaxed about spending money than a year ago, as are young people – and both groups are key to driving consumer spending. • The pressure to save and to pay down debts is still very strong, but here again we have seen significant shifts in the past year, with a big fall in the percentage of adults overall – and females in particular – who agree they are saving more because of the recession; in the latter case from 41% to 27% in just twelve months.
  12. 12. 12 AIB Contact Details Amárach Contact Details Ronan Sheridan Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Group Press Officer Amárach Research AIB 11 Kingswood Business Centre Bankcentre Citywest Business Campus Ballsbridge Dublin 24 Dublin 4 T. (01) 410 5200 T. (01) 641 4651 E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com M. 086 388 0898 W. www.amarach.com B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

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