AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011

The Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing October Index Results The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2011 Results © Amárach Research 2009

2The Emotional Recovery • We have been reporting our monthly Recovery Indicator since April 2009. • We set out two years ago to assess the psychological impact of the recession and to chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’. • Our tracking research has shown the remarkable emotional strength of the Irish people, who have consistently reported ‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most frequently experienced emotions. • But we are still in recession – and the path to recovery still lies some way ahead. • The next two years should nevertheless see us make real progress along the path.

3 Timing Recovery • All recessions end in recovery – so will this one.Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing: when do we know the recession is over and recovery has started? • Amárach Research has developed the Recovery Indicator to help us track the economic cycle more closely. • This report summarises the AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator results from April 2009 (when it began) to April 2011. • The fieldwork was conducted during the period 11th-17th April 2011 inclusive.

4 A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and 150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5 A Matter of Measurement• There was little change in sentiment in April 2011 on the previous month: Mar’11 0% Apr’11 1% Mar’11 2% Apr’11 2% Mar‘11 48% Apr‘11 51% Mar’11 20% Apr’11 19% Mar’11 30% Apr’11 27%

6 AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).• In April 2011, the Indicator remained stable, well above November’s low point. 30 27.1 26 25 25.3 24 22.723.8 23.8 23.5 20 19.6 19.2 19.2 18.4 17.818.3 18.2 17.8 17 17.318 16.3 15 15 12 10 8.3 7.3 5 0 Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 09 10 11

7 Recovery Outlook 1 Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly 52% 42% 41%43% 39% 48% 41% 42% 43% 42%42% 41%44% 42%43%46% 31% 23%26%24%25% 24% 34% 26% 18% May May Dec Dec July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Jan Jan Nov Nov June Aug Aug I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly 61% 54%55% 65% 55% 51%57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 52% 53% 48%44%48% 47% 51% 55%54% 50% 46% 44% 33%41% May May Dec Dec July July Jun Sept Feb Sept Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June Aug Aug Jan Jan

8 Recovery Outlook 2 I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly 45%45%50% 47% 41%41% 48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 45% 46% 32%34%39%37%36% 39% May May Dec Dec July July Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Nov Nov June Aug Aug Jan Jan Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly 62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 56%55%53% 55% 55% 53%59% 52% 53% 51% 50% 54% 52% 45%45%49%45%47% 48% May May Dec Dec July July Sept Sept Jun Feb Feb Apr10 Oct Mar Oct Mar Apr 09 Apr 11 Nov Nov June Aug Aug Jan Jan

9Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey Percent of adults who agree with each statement: April 2009, 2010, 2011 & March 2011 I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more spending money than I than before because of Impact on: was a few months ago the recession •Spending •Saving 16% 21% 36% 28% 23% 27% 13% 14% •Debt •Borrowing April April Mar April Apr Apr Mar Apr 09 10 11 11 09 10 11 11 Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to buy main financial priority I would be happy to a house for those who borrow from a bank if I want to 59% 58% 58% need to 64% 61% 60% 53% 31% 23% 24% Apr Mar Apr Apr Mar Apr Apr Apr Mar Apr 10 11 11 10 11 11 09 10 11 11 NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

10 The Mood of the Nation 1 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to April 201170%60%50%40%30%20% Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry10%0% Oct Oct Feb Feb Jun Nov Jan July Nov Jan Dec Dec June Apr 09 Aug Apr 10 Aug Apr 11 Sept Sept Jul May Mar Mar May

11 The Mood of the Nation 2 Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? April 2009 to April 201140%35%30%25%20%15%10% Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger5%0% Feb Feb Jun Oct Jan Oct Jan Sept Sept May May July Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Aug Mar Mar Apr 11 Jul Apr 09 Apr 10 June

12Taking Stock • Irish consumers are now planning for the long haul – emotionally and economically. • Their financial focus is on debt reduction, as well as on precautionary savings to see them through to recovery. • Nevertheless, consistently between a third and half of all adults feel some degree of ‘insulation’ from the full consequences of the recession. • Couple that with continuing emotional robustness and it could reasonably be argued that recovery in consumer markets may bounce back more strongly than expected one people feel the worst is behind them. • But we’re not there yet...

13Amárach Contact Details Gerard O’Neill - Chairman Amárach Research11 Kingswood Business Centre Citywest Business Campus Dublin 24 T. (01) 410 5200E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com W. www.amarach.com B. www.amarach.com/blog

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AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011

by Amárach Research on Apr 21, 2011

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AIB Amarach Recovery Indicator April 2011 — Presentation Transcript