Strategies for AgricultureDevelopment in PakistanShafqat FarooqEx-Director (Academic Planning),PIEAS, IslamabadCEO: AM AgriCon (SMC-PVT) Ltd, Islamabad
Constraints of Agriculturei. Immense water shortage,ii. Depletion of soil organic matter and unbalanced plant nutritioniii. Salinization of originally productive soilsiv. Yield gapv. Excessive use of environment unfriendly chemicals includingnitrogenous fertilizers and pesticides,v. Contamination of soil and water with hazardous metals/chemicalvi. Insufficient disease control measures for poultry/animal productionFinding solutions to these constraintscan result in development ofagriculture
The indicator of this developmentshould reflect in GDP growth whichdetermines how fast the economyis growing.Technically, economic growthmeans percentage increase ordecrease of GDP compared to theprevious quarter.
In the country like Pakistanwhere economic development islargely linked with agriculturaldevelopment,it is essential that thecontribution of agriculture toGDP should not be less than50% but as of 2012, it stands at21.2%.
AyubBhutto Zia ul HaqBenizir/N ShrifMusharafZardarii
Perhaps, we have not been ableto address all, some or keyconstraints of agriculturedevelopmentDuring 2011-2012Major crops grew at 3.2% GDP growth was 3.7%whileOverall agriculture grew at3.17% against the target of3.4%Target of GDP growthwas 4.2 %.0.17% below the target 0.5% below the targetLow production of wheat was considered as one of themain causes of missing targets (says economic survey2012)
Target GDP growth for 2013 is4.1%Anticipating that major cropswill contribute 4%, minorcrops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%,fisheries 2% and forestry 2% ifevery thing remain the sameonly wheat will decide the fateof GDP during 2013
Target GDP growth for 2013 is4.1%Anticipating that major cropswill contribute 4%, Minorcrops 4.5%, livestock 4.2%,fisheries 2% and forestry 2% ifevery thing remain the sameonly wheat will decide the fateof GDP during 2013While targets for livestock,fisheries and forestry are positive,targets for major and minor cropsare expected to fluctuate
Target GDP growth for 2013 is4.1%Anticipated targetsfor major crops in2013Provisionalestimatesin 2013Wheat 25.5Mt>26 MtRice 06.9Mt07.2 MtS-cane 59.0Mt68.5 MtMaize 04.3Mt04.3 MtCotton 14.5 13.9 Mb
What is required in crop sector and why?Resources comprising land, water and manpowerso that agriculture can be:Productive: So that share in GDP can be increased from21.2 % to 27% by 2015Profitable: So that it can generate more income withless expenditure compared to other venturesand should produce exportable commoditiesCompetitive: So that it can reduce poverty in the ruralareas, through providing livelihood andcreation of jobsSustainable: So that it should be able to absorb shocksand remain productive forever,
We have in handAvailable PotentialLand 23.13 Mha 6.30 Mha saline0.80 Mha under GTC0.41 Mha under KC0.17 Mha under RCWater 89.8 MAF (2012) 8500 Cusecs in GTC6000 Cusecs in KC5155 Cusecs in RC19655 Cusecs in totalManpower: 45% (2012) All those related withnewly irrigated areas
Rabi season (Winter)Major crops: Wheat,Minor crops: oil seed, gramsWheat (Anticipated wheat production in 2012-2013 would be >26Mt: highest ever)Target during 2012-2013 : 25.5 MtAchieved in 2011-2012: 23.52 MtCurrent area: 08.7 Mha Should be ≥9MhaCurrent production: 23.5 M tons Should be ≥26 M tonsCurrent share in GDP 2.6% Should be ≥4%All the targets can be met throughdifferent strategies
Strategy-1:Increase in area under cultivation which requireadditional irrigation waterStrategy-2:Increase in yield which require intensive researchStrategy-3:Shift in agriculture pattern which require strategicplanningAre all the 3 strategies are doable?
Stragety-1: part-1 Additional water availability1. Greater Thal Canal (GTC), PunjabPasses through Bhakkar, Layyah, Khushab, JhangTaken out of Chasham Jehlum Link Canal near Adhi KotWill carry flood water in Monsoon season which will of 8500 cusecs of waterThat will be for at-least 120 days:4 months and can be used for sugarcane,wheat and oil seed crops1.9 M acres (0.8M ha) in Punjab will be benefited2. Kachhi Canal (KC), Punjab and BalochistanWill pass through Muzaffargarh, DG Khan, Rajanpur in Punjab, andDera Bugti Naseerabad, Bolan and Jhal Magsi in Balochistanand would irrigate area 713,000 (0.289Mha) of which 102,000 acres (0.0413 Mhaare in Southern Punjab and will carry Punjab share of water and flood waterof 6000 cusecs3. Rainee Canal (RC), SindWill pass through Ghotki, Sukkur, and Khairpur of SindWill be taken from Guddu BarrageWill carry 5155 cusecs of water, andWill irrigate about 412,400 acres (0.167Mha) in Sind
Strategy-1: part-2:Increase in area1.089Mha extra area would be available in Punjab that will come in the commandof GTC and KCUse 0.339M ha of 1.089M ha that comes under Grater Thal Canal(GTC) in which 120 days of water is also available.Current average wheat yield is 2714kg/haWith same yield, additional production of 0.92M tons is possible339,000 (GTC) x 2714=920,046,000 kg or 0.92 M tonsi.e. total production would be 24.44 Mt. (Add 2011-2012 production of 23.52Mt)Domestic consumption=20Mt @ ½ kg/person of 10-60 years oldSmuggling: 2 Mt: Remaining: 2.44 MtExport at international price or keep as buffer stockResult: Food security/profitability andincreased share in GDP
Strategy-2: Researchable areasWheat ChickpeaWater deficiency tolerance Stress tolerance bothHigh temperature tolerance wilt and blightLow input requirement High yieldingDisease resistance Uniform maturityHigh yieldingImproved root systemTechniques to be used for researchInter and intra-specific crosses, Hybridbreeding, Mutation breeding
Strategy-3: Shift in Agriculture patternUse 1.054Mha area allocated for chick pea bydiverting entire chick pea crop in the Thal areaunder GTC and KC (1.089Mha),This will bring another 1054,000 ha under wheat1054,000 x 2741=2,88901400 kg or2.89Mt additional wheat, i.e.total wheat production will be 26.41 Mt(add production of 2011-2012: 23.52 Mt)(Enough for domestic consumption, and export)The GDP share will increase automatically
Together weachieve thetarget becauseWhere there isWhere there isa will there is aa will there is away