Climat echange and food security


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Climat echange and food security

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Climat echange and food security

  1. 1. Climate changeand food security:current and futurescenarioShafqat FarooqDirector (Academic Planning), PIEAS
  2. 2. The problemThe task
  3. 3. Food security exists when all peopleat all times, have physical andeconomic access to sufficient, safeand nutritious food to meet theirdietary needs and food preferences foran active and healthy life (FAO, 1996).It has four dimensions:i. Food availability,ii. Access to food,iii. Stability of supply and access, andiv. Healthy food utilization.
  4. 4. 23%10%32.5%7%36% 19%24%
  5. 5. Access to food?Up to 2010, 925 million people were hungry in worldBecause of soaring food prices and low purchase power
  6. 6. Some of the main driversunderlying challenge of ensuringfood security around the globe are:1.Global population growth coupled withdemographic change, and2. Global climate change and otherenvironmental impacts
  7. 7. 1. Global population growth and demographic change,increasing induce urbanization and increases demandfor food and changing patterns of demand where as2. Rising affluence is associated with increases in foodconsumption especially of meat and dairy products.Much (but not all) of the expansion in population willoccur in developing countries: improving food security(especially affordability, access and availability) is closelinked with the need to reduce poverty
  8. 8. Structure of the world diet, 2005-2007. Diet composition for 178 countries is represented by three datapoints along a vertical line corresponding to national dietary energy supply (blue = energy share fromprotein, red = energy share from fat, green = energy share from carbohydrate). As economies develop,improvement in food access leads to increased caloric intake up to a plateau. From there, diet structurechanged: consumption of cereals and vegetables decreases while that of sugar, fats and animal productsincreases. Developed countries have undergone this second transition over a century. A similar but greatly accelerated patterncan be seen in Asia, Central and Latin America, and to a lesser extent in Africa, where these diet transitions are occurring within20 years in emerging countries and within 40 years in developing countries. Source: Total energy supply and shares of protein,fat and carbohydrate have been computed from the average values for the last three available years in the FAO database (2005,2006 and 2007) Update to Combris 2006, courtesy of the author.
  9. 9. 2. Environmental perspective?Climate is changing globallyThis refers to a statistically significant variation ineither the mean state of the climate or in itsvariability and persistence for an extended period(typically decades or longer).Climate may change due either to natural processes, external forcing,or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition ofthe atmosphere or in land-use.Source: ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY TERMS,2006
  10. 10. Climate change will lead to:Extreme heat and temperature,Intense and longer droughts,High frequency of heavyprecipitation,Unprecedented floods andIntense tropical cyclonesIt is primarily via these impacts that climate change will havenegative effects on food security and nutrition.
  11. 11. Heat affected patientsbeing treated in FranceTemperature anomaly in France Mohenjo-daro, Pakistan, temperaturereaches record high 53.70C in 2010
  12. 12. Islamabad: A motorcyclist rides on the dryand cracked surface of Rawal Lake: Themain source of water supply to Rawalpindi.
  13. 13. According to the United Nations, droughtand desertification already threaten thelivelihood of some one billion people inmore than 110 countries around the world.Severedroughtimpacts theBrazilianAmazon.Thousandsof fishesdie at thedry riverbed ofHalf of India affected by extreme drought
  14. 14. Rains led declaration of "flash-floodemergency" in Duluth, MinnesotaJune 20, 2012)Flood in Brisbane Duluth , Minnesota
  15. 15. The image in the middle was taken on August 15, 2010, and theone on the left was snapped one year ago (2009). The bluepatches show the extend of the flooding, which have left 20Million people homeless. Extreme left: flood in Badin dist. 2011
  16. 16. Developing countries are hit the hardestEconomic losses Losses as %age of GDP
  17. 17. Emerging food insecurity : Rice crises in20081. Drought led reduction in wheatproduction in Australia,2. Snow storm in China reducedgrain productionIndia withheld rice stockVietnam withheld rice stockInternational market price shootup to 40%Rice price shoots up in Thailand in response of global ricedemand leading to prison riots and theft of rice farmsSource data: Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
  18. 18. 1.2.3The large resulting gap between food supply and demand can be bridged by simultaneously applying three generalapproaches. (1) Avoiding losses in current productive capacity can include actions to adapt to or mitigate climatechange, to reduce land and water degradation and to protect against emerging pests and disease. (2) Increasingagricultural production per unit land area can be achieved through use of improved technologies, practices andpolicies, more efficient use of existing agricultural land and targeted expansion of agricultural land and water use(where negative environmental impacts are minimal). (3) Reducing food demand can be accomplished throughefforts to promote healthier and more sustainable food choices and to reduce food waste across supply chains.None of these three approaches alone are sufficient and all three require substantial innovation in the food system.Source: B Keating, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture, based on Keating and Carberry (2010).
  19. 19. How to ensure food security in the wake ofincreasing population and climate change?1. Stop waste2. Give priority to human foodoveranimal feed3. Improve varieties4. Go organic5. Use alternate fooda. artificial meet,b. sea weeds
  20. 20. Food losses and waste within the food System. a) Per capita food losses and waste(all agriculture products) at consumption and pre-consumption stages., b. Part ofinitial cereal production lost or wasted at different staged of food supply chain. Thefigure do not include losses due to animal feedPer capitafood lossesand waste(Kg year-1)Food lossesCereals1. Stop waste
  21. 21. 2. Stop using cereals for animalfeedBy 2050, 1,573 million tones of cereals will be used annually for non-food of which atleast 1.45 million tones can be estimated to be used as animal feed.Each tone of cereal contain 3 million kcal. This means that the yearly non-food use ofcereals represents 4,350 billion kcal. Assuming daily need as 3,000 kcal, this willtranslate into about 1 million kcal/year needed per person. The non-food use of cerealsis thus enough to cover the calorie need for about 4.35 billion people.If we assume that 3 kg of cereals are used per kg animal product and each kg ofanimal product contains half the calories in one kg cereals (≈ 1,500 kcal per kgmeat),this means that each kg of cereals used for feed will give 500 kcal for humanconsumption and one tone cereals used for feed will give 0.5 million kcal, and the totalcalorie production from feed grains (1.45MT) will thus be 787 billion kcal.Subtracting this from the 4,350 billion calorie value of feed cereals will gives 3,563billion calories. Thus, taking the energy value of the meat produced into consideration,the loss of calories by feeding the cereals to animals represents the annual calorieneed for more than 3.5 billion people.
  22. 22. The "green" in Green Super Rice meansenvironmentally friendly. Researchers say itwill produce at least as much grain as otherrice plants but with fewer inputs. "Super"means the rice is designed to better resistdroughts, floods, salty water, insects anddisease.Chinese plant breeder Zhikang Li, workedfor 12 years with the Chinese Academy ofAgricultural Sciences and the InternationalRice Research Institute in Philippinesdeveloped GREEN SUPPER RICEa series of rice varieties which producemore than conventional varieties.Green super rice, which could increaseyields in Asia enough to feed an extra 100million people, will be rolled out in thecoming years. Several varieties should beavailable to farmers about two years fromnow in parts of Asia and Africa.MPROVE VARIETIES: THE GREEN SUPPER RICE
  23. 23. Europe and central AsiaEast Asia and Pacific4. Go organic
  24. 24. What causes bio-fuelexpansion?a. Industrial farmingA study made by John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in 2002estimated that, using our current system, on the averageThree calories of energy were neededto create one calorie of edible food.Grain-fed beef requires thirty-five calories for every calorie of beef producedJohn Hopkins study didn’t include the energy used in processing and transporting food.Other studies that included food processing, storage and transportationestimated that it takes an average of7-10 calories of input energyto produce one calorie of
  25. 25. b Growing practices
  26. 26. 5. Use alternate fooda. Sea weeds (Grow Algae when we cannotvacate land to produce more foodcrops)Under optimum conditions, commercial algae farms can produce 5,000-10,000 gallons of oilper acre, compared to just 350 gallons of ethanol biofuel per acre grown with crops likemaize.In addition, algae could feed millions of animals and act as a fertilizer. Replacing all USethanol (biofuel) production with algae oil would need around 2m acres of desert but, itwould allow 40 million acres of cropland to be planted with human food and save billions ofgallons of irrigation water a year.Algae are at the bottom of the food chain but they are already eaten widely in Japan andChina in the form of seaweeds, and are used as fertilizers, soil conditioners and animal feed.They range from giant seaweeds and kelps to microscopic slimes, are capable of fixing CO2in the atmosphere and providing fats, oils and sugars.They are eaten by everything from the tiniest shrimp to the great blue whales.They are the base of all life and must be the future food," says Edwards.Source: Professor Mark Edwards of Arizona State University
  28. 28. B. ARTIFICIAL MEATIt looks like meat, feels like meat and it is meat, although its never been near aliving, breathing animal. Instead, artificial or "cultured" meat is grown from stemcells in giant vats.Demand for meet is increasing, needs to open up new farmland. Cattle now occupynearly 1/4 of all cultivable land, and growing crops for animal feed takes upanother 25%.Much of the research into artificial meat is being done in Europe where scientistsare developing edible tissue grown from stem cells in laboratories. But while thefirst artificial hamburger could be developed next year, it might taste of nothing atall.Meat needs blood and fat to give it color and taste, and while stem cells for bloodand fat have been identified, the process is complex and expensive work.Artificial meat is environment friendly as it uses far less water, energy and landand few ethical objections largely because mass production of animals in factoryfarms and use of growth hormones and antibiotics is already consideredquestionable.
  29. 29. b. Artificial meet
  30. 30. 6. Go technical Go DesertechMuch of the world is arid, with its only nearby water being thesea.So could there be a technology to green coastal deserts in placessuchas Chile, California, Peru and the Middle East using salt water?Yes: seawater greenhouse (SWGH) is the answerIn the natural water cycle, seawater is heated by the sun,evaporates, cools to form clouds, and returns to earth as rain.Similarly, in SWGH, hot desert air goes into a Greenhouse, cooled and thenhumidified by seawater. This humid air nourishes crops growing inside andthen passes through an evaporator. When it meets a series of tubescontaining cool seawater, fresh water condenses and is then collected.Because the greenhouses produces more than five times the fresh waterneeded to water the plants, some of it can be released into the localenvironment to grow other plants.Seawater greenhouses have been shown to work and this year a large-scale pilotproject backed by the Norwegian government will be built near Aqaba in Jordan.The Sahara Forest Projectwill combine different technologies to grow food and biofuel crops and be running by2015.
  31. 31. But this is just one of many technologies beingdeveloped to enable food to be grown in unlikelyplaces. One of the simplest, but most ambitiousplans, may be the long-mooted Great GreenWall of Africa. This linear forest would be15km wide and 7,775km long, and stretchfrom Senegal in the west to Djibouti ineast Africa.It would, say the 11 countries through which itwould pass, will help stop southward spread ofthe Sahara, slow soil erosion and wind speeds,help rain water filter into the ground and createmicro-climates to allow fruit, vegetables andother crops to be grown.Charlie Paton, a British inventor,DESERTEC cont.
  32. 32. The desertec concept offer a solution to many of the problemsfaced by the mankind.It demonstrate a way to provideclimate protection,energy security and development by generating sustainablepower from sites where renewable resource are at their mostabundantThe sun rich deserts of the world play special role .Within Six hours, deserts receive more energy form the sun thanhumankind consumes within a year.In addition, 90% of the world’s population lives within 3000 km ofdeserts which means it is applicable across the world.Concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants are the key toharnessing desert sun: they use heat from the sun to drive steamturbines and generate electricity. This heat can also be stored inheat tanks which means that electricity is available on demand.The technology is proven and has been in use for yearsDESERTEC cont.