Seminario y Ronda  de Negocios Tecnología de  la Información Corea - Argentina Dr. Alejandro Prince Prince & Cooke Buenos ...
Agenda <ul><li>ICT market & industry </li></ul><ul><li>ICT human capital </li></ul><ul><li>ICT trends & opportunities </li...
ICT adoption in Argentina  <ul><li>Market is strong & resilient </li></ul><ul><li>Imitation factor </li></ul><ul><li>Macro...
ICT Adoption USA vs.  Argentina - Theoretical Time Penetration %
PC’s adoption USA vs.  Argentina - % households  USA Argentina
“ Rogers” status  Internet   users Mobile PCs Laggards Late majority Early majority Innovators & early ad .
Frank Bass:  innovation vs. imitation   argentine shape imitation Industrialized shape innovation Cumulated  sales Time pe...
Bass quotients Argentina PC, Mobile, Internet users & BB 0,690 0,400 0,700 0,245 q 0,004 0,007 0,001 0,005 P Broad Band In...
Strong & Resilient trends PC sales - thousands units
ICT market Argentina <ul><li>2008 market size: 46.100 millions of $ </li></ul><ul><li>Growth 08 vs. 07: 23,4% </li></ul><u...
ICT + Cc Sector – Companies  Half of these HC works in the offer side, another half in large, medium private & public user...
ICT + Cc Market evolution
ICT + Cc market vs. GDP 375.909 447.643 835.000 531.939 312.580 654.439 780.396 14.119 24.390 46.100 19.757 11.923 29.810 ...
IT market split
Telecomm  market split
Main ICT indicators in millions TV sets + 200 % households TV cable + 60  % households Ciber/hot-spots +  35.000 points
B2C e-commerce
Digital  decade 4,1 5,7 7,6 10 13 16 20 2,6 3,4 4 4,4 5,2 6 7 8,2 4,1 6,6 7,2 6,7 7,8 13,1 18,3 24,1 27,5 33,5 1,43 1,6 2,...
* 2  FIDE  (ajustado por inflación) Fuente: CCR en base a EPH INDEC / AAM /FIDE $2.200 * 2 Social structure Argentina 2007...
PC’s vs. portables
Fixed vs. mobile lines  thousands - lines in service mobile fixed
Trends by sector  <ul><li>E-gov - National Digital Agenda </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Provinces: San Luis… and others on the...
Trends  by technology <ul><li>Biometrics, ICT & public security  </li></ul><ul><li>Wi Fi/ WiMAX  </li></ul><ul><li>Trazabi...
International opportunities <ul><li>Software & IT Services, from offshoring  outsourcing by “price”, to “value”: solutions...
Market needs <ul><li>Telecom regulatory frame need clear rules (convergence, satelite, “radio” law, IP, new taxes on ICT g...
2009 ICT Market Scenario Medium to high probability Inflation around 20 % or less GDP growth, negative, around -2,0 % Doll...
<ul><li>Alejandro Prince   [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>President of Prince & Cooke   www.princecooke.com   </li></ul...
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Seminario CoreaArgentina Sep09

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Seminario CoreaArgentina Sep09

  1. 1. Seminario y Ronda de Negocios Tecnología de la Información Corea - Argentina Dr. Alejandro Prince Prince & Cooke Buenos Aires 28 septiembre 2009
  2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>ICT market & industry </li></ul><ul><li>ICT human capital </li></ul><ul><li>ICT trends & opportunities </li></ul>
  3. 3. ICT adoption in Argentina <ul><li>Market is strong & resilient </li></ul><ul><li>Imitation factor </li></ul><ul><li>Macroeconomics strongly affects the curves </li></ul><ul><li>Some policies has positive impact on adoption: </li></ul><ul><li>Liberalization of Communications </li></ul><ul><li>Promotion of consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Facts that has strong negative impact on adoption: </li></ul><ul><li>Devaluations </li></ul><ul><li>Consumers & business expectatives (clima) </li></ul>
  4. 4. ICT Adoption USA vs. Argentina - Theoretical Time Penetration %
  5. 5. PC’s adoption USA vs. Argentina - % households USA Argentina
  6. 6. “ Rogers” status Internet users Mobile PCs Laggards Late majority Early majority Innovators & early ad .
  7. 7. Frank Bass: innovation vs. imitation argentine shape imitation Industrialized shape innovation Cumulated sales Time period
  8. 8. Bass quotients Argentina PC, Mobile, Internet users & BB 0,690 0,400 0,700 0,245 q 0,004 0,007 0,001 0,005 P Broad Band Internet users Mobile PC´s Quot.
  9. 9. Strong & Resilient trends PC sales - thousands units
  10. 10. ICT market Argentina <ul><li>2008 market size: 46.100 millions of $ </li></ul><ul><li>Growth 08 vs. 07: 23,4% </li></ul><ul><li>ICT HumanCapital + 330.000 employees: 1.9% PEA (economically active population) </li></ul>
  11. 11. ICT + Cc Sector – Companies Half of these HC works in the offer side, another half in large, medium private & public users. Double expected before 2015. 55 % & 99 % respectively is a Critical HR Almost 8.000 companies in ICT total industry + two thirds of employees with universitary or tertiary degrees + one third, english fluent Annual demand: 15-25.000 employees
  12. 12. ICT + Cc Market evolution
  13. 13. ICT + Cc market vs. GDP 375.909 447.643 835.000 531.939 312.580 654.439 780.396 14.119 24.390 46.100 19.757 11.923 29.810 37.355 0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000 800.000 900.000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 PBI 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000 Mercado TICC
  14. 14. IT market split
  15. 15. Telecomm market split
  16. 16. Main ICT indicators in millions TV sets + 200 % households TV cable + 60 % households Ciber/hot-spots + 35.000 points
  17. 17. B2C e-commerce
  18. 18. Digital decade 4,1 5,7 7,6 10 13 16 20 2,6 3,4 4 4,4 5,2 6 7 8,2 4,1 6,6 7,2 6,7 7,8 13,1 18,3 24,1 27,5 33,5 1,43 1,6 2,05 2,3 2,8 3,1 3,7 3,7 3,9 3,8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Usuarios de Internet (en millones de personas) PC's (en millones de unidades) Telefonía móvil (en millones de líneas en servicio) Clientes de Internet (en millones de conexiones
  19. 19. * 2 FIDE (ajustado por inflación) Fuente: CCR en base a EPH INDEC / AAM /FIDE $2.200 * 2 Social structure Argentina 2007 Average monthly income per household 15 30 Indigents High class 25 25 Medium high Typical medium class Medium low Low class $9.500 $ 4.000 Poverty line Medium class basket 5 $ 2.200 $1.000 $500
  20. 20. PC’s vs. portables
  21. 21. Fixed vs. mobile lines thousands - lines in service mobile fixed
  22. 22. Trends by sector <ul><li>E-gov - National Digital Agenda </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Provinces: San Luis… and others on the way </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Cities CABA, Junín, Rafaela, Rosario, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Banking & retail: Reluctant. </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture, building? Non critical </li></ul><ul><li>Energy, mining, cooperatives, tourism, SME’s… </li></ul>
  23. 23. Trends by technology <ul><li>Biometrics, ICT & public security </li></ul><ul><li>Wi Fi/ WiMAX </li></ul><ul><li>Trazability (agriculture) </li></ul><ul><li>Contents, postproduction, FX, games, etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Convergence, triple - cuadruple play? </li></ul><ul><li>IP telephony </li></ul>
  24. 24. International opportunities <ul><li>Software & IT Services, from offshoring outsourcing by “price”, to “value”: solutions, contents, creativity </li></ul><ul><li>IT clusters, poles & industrial parks </li></ul><ul><li>“ Software promotion law” National (Cordoba Province) </li></ul><ul><li>Internal market is relatively small, but opportunity “to share” is not (not only produce or support, but research & development) </li></ul>
  25. 25. Market needs <ul><li>Telecom regulatory frame need clear rules (convergence, satelite, “radio” law, IP, new taxes on ICT goods) </li></ul><ul><li>Universal service must be redefined </li></ul><ul><li>New “ETAPS” (government procurement rules) </li></ul><ul><li>Telephony tariffs increase </li></ul><ul><li>Improve consumer & business confidence, expectations or “clima ” </li></ul>
  26. 26. 2009 ICT Market Scenario Medium to high probability Inflation around 20 % or less GDP growth, negative, around -2,0 % Dollar december: 4 argentine pesos ICT market growth: 9 - 11 % Sustained mainly by : BB, mobile, IT S & Services
  27. 27. <ul><li>Alejandro Prince [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>President of Prince & Cooke www.princecooke.com </li></ul><ul><li>Vicepresident Fundación Gestión y Desarrollo www.fgd.org.ar </li></ul><ul><li>Professor at UBA, UTN, UDESA, FASTA, Fundación Libertad, UP, y otras Universidades. </li></ul><ul><li>International lecturer, Author of several papers and books on Information Society & Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Licencee on Marketing, Ph.D on Political Science and Ph.D Candidate on Economics. </li></ul><ul><li>www.linkedin.com/in/alxprince </li></ul><ul><li>www.facebook.com/alejandro.prince </li></ul>
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