International Security 3

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This was one of my most recent powerpoint presentation. I worked in a small group with 2 other partners. The presentation lasted 1 hour followed by a group discussion.

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  • International Security 3

    1. 1. International Security<br />Has Globalization tried to kill you today?<br />By: Jason Krause, Alexandria White, and Jonathan D’Angelo<br />
    2. 2. Is Globalization related to Security?U.S. post Cold War Interventions and Firefox 3Correlation?<br />As stated in class, one sign of globalization is free access to information, mainly via the Internet.<br />Firefox is a popular free open source Internet Browser alternative to Microsoft Internet Explorer.<br />Firefox is installed on all ECU Campus PCs<br />Firefox 3 was released for download June 17th 2008<br />
    3. 3. Downloads of Firefox 3(Red=highest volume, Gray/Blue=lowest volume)<br />
    4. 4. Map of U.S. Forces Deployed 1990-2003 <br />(Exercises and Humanitarian Operations excluded)<br />Inside the dotted line (known as the Non-integrating Gap) is 1/3rd of World Population and 95% of the Terrorism, Genocide, and Child Soldiers<br />
    5. 5. U.S. Forces Deployments and Firefox 3 Downloads maps combined…Does Globalization = Stability?<br />Map from Eaves.ca, 3 days older than 1st download map, hence the difference in volume.<br />
    6. 6. Is Globalization good or bad for International Security?<br />Short Term: Bad, why?<br /><ul><li>Exploitation of Labor
    7. 7. Struggle for resources
    8. 8. Corruption
    9. 9. Cultural issues (Religion)
    10. 10. Increased struggle between Have vs Have-Not (Somali Pirates attacking cargo ships, more on this later…)
    11. 11. Terrorism</li></ul>Long Term: Good, why?<br /><ul><li>Increased stability
    12. 12. Growth of a Middle-Class
    13. 13. Increased demand for good/services
    14. 14. Increased demand for government accountability
    15. 15. Democracy
    16. 16. Massive incentive not to screw it up (China)</li></li></ul><li>Example from history of two “crazy” countries…<br />Berlin, Germany 1945<br />Berlin, Germany 2009<br />Tokyo, Japan 1945<br />Tokyo, Japan 2009<br />
    17. 17. Can history repeat?<br />Baghdad, Iraq 2009<br />?<br />Kabul, Afghanistan 2009<br />?<br />
    18. 18. Elephants in the Room<br />Russia <br />China<br />U.S. Air Force F/A-22 Raptor escorting a Russian Air Force Tu-95 Bomber near Alaska in the Fall of 2007<br />Chinese People’s Liberation Army<br />
    19. 19. Conflict that Could Derail Globalization?<br />US v. Russia over Georgia?<br />US v. China over Taiwan?<br />Motives:<br />Economic& militarily driven <br />Projection of Power<br />Test Western Societies<br />
    20. 20. Emerging Trends of Military Significance<br />The Global Village Phenomena<br />Cultural Change With Security Implications<br />Economic Determinism<br />Political Deconfliction<br />Societal Concerns<br />Regional Renegades<br />Ethno-Linguistic Pan-Nationalism<br />Critical Uncertainties<br />
    21. 21. Conditions which Threaten U.S. National Interests<br />Adverse Ideology to democracy <br />Democratic Peace Theory<br />Denial of access to resources and markets <br />What are you hiding?<br />Regional instability <br />Susceptibility to conflict<br />Military threats/weapons proliferation <br />Non-compliant Competitors<br />EX: China?<br />Renegade Adversaries<br />EX: Iran, N. Korea<br />
    22. 22. China: Rising World Hegemonic Power?<br />China-US Relations<br />Chinese military <br />growing defense spending.<br />force projection, logistics, training, command and control<br />Total People’s Liberation Army Members 2.3 million (2003)<br />Weapons Development<br />Purchasing modern military equipment<br />SA-10 systems, SU-27 Fighters and Kilo submarines from Russia<br />Nuclear Proliferation<br />Selling nuclear technology and Information to Renegade advisories <br />Could China Assume the Role & Responsibility as Global Hegemony?<br />
    23. 23. New Era of Threat:Technological/Electronic Intelligence<br />Nuclearization Information and Cybernetic Warfare<br />Electromagnetic warfare <br />Applied Automation <br />Precision Munitions Medium and long range missiles <br />Weaponized chemical capability <br />Advanced barrier technologies <br />Electrochemical weapons<br />Anti-missile technologies and Denial (C3D2) <br />Anti-aircraft technologies <br />Hyperspectral Sensors <br />Techno-terrorism <br />Brilliant sensors and all-source fusion <br />Technology-aided espionage<br />
    24. 24. Effects of Terrorism on a Global Economy<br />The direct effects of the attack on September 11 the US:<br />$34 billion in uninsured damage from the World Trade Centers, <br />$576 million in damage to the Pentagon <br />$7 was billion paid out in victim compensation <br />279,000 jobs were lost as a result of a slowing economy due to 9/11<br />US has spent $53 billion in homeland security and counterterrorism efforts within our borders<br />World economy lost $300 billion potential growth in 2001 and 2002 due to<br />The global economy went from a 4.1% growth rate in 2000 to a 1.4% growth rate in 2001<br />The US national average for insurance rates increased 5%, and about 30% in Europe <br />International shipping and travel costs increased<br />Tourism industry heavily impacted<br />
    25. 25. Pakistan and it’s Nuclear Weapons<br />Pakistan&apos;s motive for a nuclear weapons program is to counter the threat posed by its rival India<br />Currently India has superior conventional forces and nuclear weapons<br />Pakistan does not abide by a no-first-use doctrine <br />President Musharraf said that Pakistan does not want a conflict with India, but…<br />Pakistan refuses to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty<br />Consequently, not all of Pakistan&apos;s nuclear facilities are under IAEA regulation or subject to inspection<br />It is estimated that Pakistan has built 24-55 uranium based nuclear weapons<br />Pakistan has also produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium<br />
    26. 26. History of Pakistan’s Nuclear Program<br />Pakistan&apos;s nuclear weapons program was established in 1972 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto<br />Bhutto founded the program while he was Minister for Fuel, Power and Natural Resources, he later became President and Prime Minister of Pakistan<br />After the loss of East Pakistan in 1971 war with India, Bhutto initiated the program with a meeting of physicists and engineers at Multan in January 1972<br />The 1975 arrival of Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan considerably advanced Pakistans development of the nuclear bomb<br />By the early 1990s, Kahuta had an estimated 3,000 centrifuges in operation<br />
    27. 27. Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan<br />Known as the “father of the Islamic bomb”<br />Dr. Khan is a German-trained metallurgist<br />Worked at the classified URENCO uranium enrichment plant in the Netherlands<br />Dr. Khan also reportedly brought with him stolen uranium enrichment technologies from Europe. <br />He and was put in charge of building, equipping and operating Pakistan&apos;s Kahuta facility<br />Under Khan&apos;s direction, Pakistan had an extensive clandestine network<br />In 1986 Pakistan was thought to have produced enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon<br />According to Pakistan the nation acquired the ability to carry out a nuclear explosion in 1987<br />Currently Dr. Khan is considered a proliferation risk for selling nuclear secrets to North Korea, Libya and Iran<br />
    28. 28. What if?<br />What if terrorists acquired a Nuclear weapon would see the same effects on the global economy we saw on 9/11?<br />
    29. 29. A little bit of good news<br />Pakistan has relatively “small” nuclear weapons<br />Pakistan claims to have tested a 25-36 kiloton bomb in 1998, outside sources say it was closer to 9-12 kilotons<br />1 kiloton equals 1000 tons of TNT<br />1 Mega ton equals 1,000,000 tons<br />Nagasaki was 20 kilotons <br />Largest bombs are 50 megatons<br />Only tested uranium based bombs, never detonated a larger plutonium bomb<br />Outside sources claim Pakistan&apos;s weapons are relatively secure<br />Takes after the US model of layered security <br />
    30. 30. Possible bright spot for cooperation?Somali Privacy and the global response<br />Somali Pirates are responsible for numerous attacks on private and commercial ships off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden.<br />In response to this and other regional maritime security concerns the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet formed Combined Task Force 151.<br />CTF 151 is an international naval task force which is responsible for maritime security from the horn of Africa and Gulf of Aden.<br />Participating countries include Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Pakistan, Portugal, Spain, Singapore, Turkey, the UK, the US.<br />The current Commander of CTF 151 is Turkish Navy Rear Admiral Caner Bener<br />Russia and China (major shift in PLA’s focus) also have ships in the area however are operating independently.<br />Turkish Special Forces part of CTF151<br />
    31. 31. Thomas P.M. Barnett video…<br />Ph.D Harvard in Political Science<br />Center for Naval Analysis<br />Contributed to the U.S. Navy’s major post-Cold War doctrine white paper “…From the Sea” <br />Professor at the Naval War College<br />New Rule Sets Project (Wall Street CEOs and Military Flag Officers looking into Y2K’s possible ripple effects on IPE, findings were almost identical 9/11’s ripple effects a few years later). <br />Assistant for Strategic Futures, Office of Force Transformation, Dept of Defense (hired to come up with an “unofficial” Grand Strategy post-9/11).<br />Author of three books: <br />The Pentagon’s New Map: War and Peace in the 21st Century<br />Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating<br />Great Powers: America & The World After Bush<br />Barnett’s 2008 article in Esquire led the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Fallon to resign over comments made about Bush’s Iran policy.<br />Opinion of his research ranges between absolutely brilliant to absolutely insane, you decide…<br />
    32. 32. Thomas P.M. Barnett’s A-Z rule set for Politically Bankrupt States2005 TED TALK Clip (Barnett’s full presentation at the National Defense University is 3 hours long and available on C-SPAN or Youtube)<br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbmseFaZb9Q<br />

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