Social media & lok sabha elections


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IRIS study that quantifies the impact that social media can have in forthcoming lok sabha elections.

Social media & lok sabha elections

  1. 1. Social Media &Lok Sabha ElectionsA study finds that Facebook users may be the newvotebank Indian politicians have to now worry about.
  2. 2. I ndian democracy is on the cusp of a revolution led by social media users. At a very conservative estimate, the fortunes of contestants seeking election to the next Lok 1 2 Sabha from not less than 150 constituencies will be determined by Facebook users making them the newest Vote Bank with the power to shape Indian politics. The inevitability of a three way split of the popular vote between the ruling UPA, the principal opposition NDA and the emerging third front formations increases the relevance of social media users as a community, rendering unto them an opportunity like never before to register their presence. A study carried out by the independent IRIS Knowledge Foundation suggests that social media usage is now sufficiently widespread to have the power to influence the outcome of the next elections to the Lok Sabha and consequently government formation. The research was conducted with data available in March 2013. With Facebook emerging as the gorilla in the social media space, the clout that Facebook users enjoy is immense. The study has serious implications, all of it positive, for Indian democracy, for the way it empowers the citizens. The study underscores the need for candidates to chalk out a well thought out social media strategy for their campaigns to be effective.The success of social media in general and Facebook in particular in catalysing change will be predicatedon marrying the community which social media is able to create with relevant content to enhance 3accountability. The relevance of XBRL in achieving this end cannot be emphasised enough as it allowsthings to be mixed and matched in a manner hitherto unexplored. This explains the excitement in the USAabout the DATA Act which seeks to mandate the use of data standards such as XBRL. This promises tousher in what we call c-governance or citizen led governance, the next logical step in the e governanceroadmap of countries worldwide.1 Elections to the Lok Sabha can be called any time anytime between now and the end of the Parliaments 5 year term on May 31,2014 by when elections must be completed and a new Lok Sabha constituted.2 Out of a total of 543 constituencies to which elections will be held3 XBRL or eXtensible business reporting language is an XML based information standard which is becoming ubiquitous aroundthe world. For more info visit
  3. 3. Why the studyThe inspiration for the study is three fold. rape incident in Delhi. Citizen activism is higher than ever before and the young in India areFirstly, given the proximity of elections which certainly showing a fair amount of restlessnesscannot be more than a year away, we felt it would and unhappiness at the state of affairs. It isbe the right time to identify broad trends and unlikely that the voice that the citizenry foundrecent events that may impact the elections. would stay suppressed for long and it would beThere clear factors emerge in this context. interesting to see if it finds expression through their vote at the hustings. It is significant to note1. The Indian electorate has never been younger. that online media generally and social media inBetween 2004 and 2009, the voting population general have played a huge role in mobilizingwent up from 670 million to 720 million. The people for protests. The highest tribute that couldnumber is expected to increase to 800 million by have been paid by way of recognizing this is thethe time the country goes to the polls, a greater setting up of a social media lab by Mumbai policenumber of voters than ever before will be 25 to track social media activity to anticipateyears or younger. possible trouble spots and identify those they see as trouble makers. 3. India is also rapidly urbanizing which is seen as a sign of upward mobility. This has serious consequences for the aspirations of the residents and the extent to which they would go to realize their objectives. Anecdotal evidence suggests that an urbanized population is also an assertive population, and prepared to take an aggressive posture, and easily swayed given their access to not just state controlled media but also alternate points of view not available to them until now. Secondly, a report entitled “Social Media in India – 2012” released by the Internet and Mobile 4 Association of India (IAMAI) in February 2013 throws up interesting findings.Cartoon in the Romanian political newspaper Aurora, duringthe 1926 parliamentary election. The Peoples Party and itsshadow partner, the National Liberal Party are represented as 1. The IAMAI report places the number of socialtwo rats with the caption : “The electors seal -- death to all media users in Urban India at 62 Million (Mn) bysorts of political rats” December 2012. The same report estimates that2. The last 5 years has also seen a greater the number of social media users will top 66expression of disaffection in the government and 4 The Internet and Mobile Association of India [IAMAI]the political class by the citizenry who have taken established in 2004 represents the online and mobile VASto the streets to protest. This was seen during the industry in India. With a membership of 125 Indian andfast by Anna Hazare, even if the protests did not global companies, IAMAI is working to chart the growth path for the digital industry in India. Website: www.iamai.inlast for long. This happened during the infamous
  4. 4. million by June 2013. It is logical therefore that outstripped Romneys by a mile though a greaterby the time elections to the 16th Lok Sabha are percentage of Romney followers were “talking”.held in mid 2014, the numbers would be even Obama ran away with the election because hehigher, possibly closer to 80 million if the trend used analytics to do peer to peer targeting. Whichholds. It is also likely that the 25 million strong is another source of inspiration for this research.Indian NRI community who now have voting For peer to peer targeting to be effective, thererights would follow elections more closely even if has to be a critical mass of social media users, thethey are not able to be physically present in India numbers have to be there. But it is not the numberto be able to cast their vote, they can be a big of fans or the number of likes and tweets that areinfluencer too. After all, they are considerably going to determine the probability of winning of aactive on social media. certain candidate but the ability of the candidate to engage with the electorate, by rising above the2. What the IAMAI report also highlights is that media clutter and by trying to get his or herFacebook is the leading website accessed by all message across to the voter directly. In todayssocial media users, with as many as 97% of them India, the number of social media users to achieveregistering a presence on Facebook. The study this end has reached a tipping point. May be not inalso finds that next to e mail, social media usage is every one of the 543 constituencies but certainlythe biggest reason for people to connect to the in a significant number of them to warrant theinternet. It is also significant to note that people conclusion that they have the power to influenceuse social media 7 days a week. elections and therefore government formation.3. A third factor of significant relevance from thepoint of view of this study is the revelation in theIAMAI report that social media usage is spreadingfast in areas other than the top eight Indianmetros. One third of the social media users, as thestudy reveals, are residents of smaller towns withpopulation of under 500000. Even moresignificant is the fact that a quarter of socialmedia users are residents of towns with apopulation less than 200000.The third factor which prompted the study wasthe impact of social media on the US Presidentialelections. In a piece in the MIT TechnologyReview5 entitled Facebook: The Real Presidentialswing State, writer David Talbot had predictedthat “the outcome of the 2012 campaign couldhave less to do with grand vision than online dataanalytics and peer to peer voter targeting.” As itturned out, the Obama victory is credited to justthat. Obamas followers on Facebook and Twitter5 August 15, 2012 Barack Obama
  5. 5. The MethodologyThe approach to the study is quite 3. When viewed against the backdrop of 419000straightforward. We kept it simple. Facebook users in this constituency, it is self evident that Facebook users wield a tremendous1. We went by the data published by Facebook on influence over the fortunes of the candidates intheir website to help advertisers target their this constituency especially in a tight race.audience better. We culled the data from this 4. We went through this exercise for each andpage, constituency by constituency, one every constituency in the country and classifiedconstituency at a time. For instance, in the case of them in four ways – High Impact, Moderatethe Thane Parliamentary constituency, we found Impact, Low Impact and No Impact. The data hasthat there were over 400000 Facebook users who been presented in the sheets that follow.were eligible to vote on the day the data waspulled out. (On the day we wrote this report, we 5. In our classification, High Impactfound that the number has gone up to over constituencies are those where the number of419580.) According to Facebook, these people Facebook users are more than the margin ofhave disclosed that they live in Thane or in Navi victory of the winner in the last Lok SabhaMumbai which is part of the Thane Parliamentary election, or where Facebook users account forconstituency. over 10% of the voting population. Our analysis throws up 160 High Impact Constituencies out of(Writers note: We are stunned to see that within a the total of 543 which will go to the of just three weeks when the data was firstculled to now when the report is being written up,as many as 20000 new potential voters wouldclamber on to Facebook, this can only accelerate aselections approach and the noise level on Facebookattracts new converts)2. Parallelly, we downloaded data from the 6. The Medium Impact constituencies are thoseelection commission to find out the number of where we have assumed that a Facebook user canregistered voters and the actual voter turnout in influence one other voter who may not be onthe constituency during the last Lok Sabha Facebook. Constituencies where the total numberelections. We also looked at the margin of victory of Facebook users is in excess of 5% of the votingof the winning candidate from the constituency. population. A total of 67 out of the 543(In the interest of maintaining consistency, we constituencies have been identified as being inignored data that may have been thrown up in the this category.course of any by elections.) 7. The rest of the constituencies have beenThus, in Thane Parliamentary constituency in identified as Low Impact Constituencies or NoMaharashtra which we are using as an example impact constituencies. The correspondingfor this write up, we found that of the 1.8 million numbers are 60 out of 543 in the Low Impactregistered voters, 750000 showed up to actually category and the remaining 256 out of 543 asvote. The winning candidate won by a relatively being in the No Impact Category.narrow margin of 49000 votes. 8. The detailed list is provided in the Appendices.
  6. 6. Limitations and caveats1. Our approach can be dismissed for being analysis, we have culled data only by the name ofsimple to the point of being simplistic. We have the constituency and deliberately neglected toused the number of Facebook users as an include other places in the vicinity which too mayindication of the clout of social media instead of have some number of Facebook users. Thus itanalyzing their behaviour to see if they are really would be fair to say that the number of Facebookactive and showing signs of wanting to make an users in each constituency is understated. Weimpact. However, we feel that this criticism may will produce an updated version of the study innot hold as the mere presence on Facebook late 2013 with more refined data which includesallows users access to alternate sources of as many places in a constituency as we caninformation and divergent points of view. Also possibly identify.Facebook users, even when passive, turn out to belisteners and there is enough evidence to suggest 4. Another reason for the understatement is whatthat when the time for action arrives, they may act we call the contiguous effect. For example,in ways that could surprise everyone by the Jadavpur and Diamond Harbour are both Lokunexpected nature of their reaction. Hence the Sabha constituencies in the vicinity of Kolkata.numbers are certainly a reasonable basis to form While data for each of these places throws up aconclusion. Without a doubt, a critical mass small number of Facebook users, the fact thatexists. Jadavpur borders the Kolkata Dakshin constituency and is part of Greater Kolkata means2. We acknowledge that we may have understated that the right number to take into considerationthe impact of social media by not considering would be the aggregate number for Kolkata. Dittoother social media networks such as Twitter to in the case of Diamond Harbor. Now, both of thesecite just one. If we had considered data from other constituencies, are classified as Low or no Impactsocial media and added that too, the sphere of constituencies which cannot be correct but in theinfluence of social media would be that much absence of more detailed data, we will stick to thisgreater. The IAMAI finding that over 97% social classification for users are on Facebook gave us thejustification to confine this research to Facebook 5. The simple arithmetic approach to identifyingalone. the constituencies as high, medium and low impact does not factor in voter behaviour on3. Even so, the impact of Facebook is understated account of any possible anti incumbency effect orin this study. A simple example will drive home political realignments. In any event, since thethis point. Consider a constituency called Durg in purpose of the study is limited to assessingthe state of Chattisgarh. According to the latest whether Facebook users will at all have an impactFacebook data, the number of social media users if they so choose, we feel that the answer to thisin Durg who are potential voters by virtue of question is obvious.being residents of Durg and on account of beingmore than 18 years old is 24780. (At the time weculled the data, the number was 24320). Nowconsider this. The industrial town of Bhilai is partof the Durg constituency and boasts of 104220people who make the electoral cut. In all of our
  7. 7. Implications of the study for Contestants1. No contestant can afford to ignore social media aggregate data about those that they seek to electin the next Lok Sabha election. Just as they have but making such data available in a granular formbudgets for traditional media spend and on the could well trigger a different response from theground activity, it is important that they have a voter than ever before. For instance, we wonderspecific budget for social media activity. how a voter would react when faced with the choice of electing an MP whose attendance record2. When one sees the wins of the Congress and the in parliament is dismal or whose electionBJP in the last Lok Sabha elections, we find that 75 affidavit shows that his personal fortune hasof the 206 seats won (36%) by the Congress and increased manifold over the last 5 years or whose43 of the 144 seats (30%) where they finished comments display a huge level of insensitivitysecond are counted among the High Impact towards women.constituencies. In the case of the BJP, we find that44 of the 116 seats (37%) they won and 50 of the110 seats (46%) they lost fall in the high Impactcategory. A well thought out social mediacampaign will not only be about retainingpreviously won seats but also about wrestingnew seats. While there can be no two views on thefact that social media usage is a largely urbanphenomenon, a rapidly urbanising India witheven small towns reporting a fairly active socialmedia usage offers pointers to how campaignfocus may need to be in order to gain new winswhile retaining the existing seats.3. Unlike traditional campaigning which ismandatorily required to come to a close 48 hoursbefore the polls, it is unlikely that the ElectionCommission will be able to legislate and enforcesilence on social media networks as it would betantamount to stifling the voice of the people.Which means that any development even in thehours of polling can potentially influence voterbehaviour as the information will spread like wildfire. What this also means is that savvy candidatescan harness the power of social media to unleasha guerilla campaign on their opponents withoutgiving them the time to respond. We may seesome candidates take a hit and run strategy.4. We believe that by mashing up this data withsocial indicators of a constituency and personalattributes of contestants, democracy will win. It isone thing to share with a voting population,
  8. 8. Long run impactThe impact of social media on elections This possibility is already reflected in legislativeworldwide will be enhanced even further as proposals in the United States. Last April, the U.S.governments adopt “open data” policies – that is, House of Representatives passed the Digitalrequirements for important government Accountability and Transparency Act, or DATAinformation to be published online, in non- Act, which would have required all U.S.proprietary formats such as XBRL that open it up government spending information to beto search and analysis tools. Open data principles published in an open format like XBRL atalso dictate that when governments publish a permanent web addresses, with an explicitparticular piece of information – be it a spending requirement for the information to be madedetail, a regulatory filing, proposed legislation, a available to be “freely shared by the public, suchjudicial opinion, or almost anything else – they as by social media.” Further action on the DATAuse stable Web addresses, known as Persistent Act is expected in the U.S. Congress in the springUniform Resource Locators (PURLs), as much as of 2013. The Data Transparency Coalition, a U.S.possible. PURLs allow the information to be trade association of technology firms, hasshared easily via Facebook and other social become the primary private-sector advocate fornetworks. Facebook users can instantly share a the DATA Act and similar legislation. One of thePURL with all their friends, and those users can Coalitions policy goals is to make all governmentshare it in turn with their own friends, because a information shareable via Facebook and otherPURL functions as a permanent link to the social networks. Here in India, IRIS Knowledgeinformation. The combination of stable Foundation, the publishers of this study arepublication via PURLs, easy analysis thanks to seeking to do the same.XBRL and other formats, and wide dispersion viaFacebook sharing promises to make the onlinedemocratic conversation more sophisticated andmore relevant than ever before.
  9. 9. APPENDIXAppendix 1: High Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Andhra Pradesh Hyderabad Asaduddin OwaisiAndhra Pradesh Visakhapatnam Daggubati PurandeswariAndhra Pradesh Vijayawada Lagadapati Raja GopalAndhra Pradesh Guntur Rayapati Sambasiva RaoAndhra Pradesh Rajahmundry Aruna Kumar VundavalliAndhra Pradesh Kakinada M.M.PallamrajuAndhra Pradesh Tirupati Chinta MohanAndhra Pradesh Nellore Mekapati Rajamohan ReddyAndhra Pradesh Karimnagar Ponnam PrabhakarAndhra Pradesh Narasaraopet Modugula Venugopala ReddyAndhra Pradesh Chittoor Naramalli SivaprasadArunachal Pradesh Arunachal West Takam SanjoyAssam Dibrugarh Paban Singh GhatowarAssam Silchar Kabindra PurkayasthaAssam Tezpur Joseph ToppoBihar Pataliputra Ranjan Prasad YadavBihar Patna Sahib Shatrughan SinhaBihar Muzaffarpur Captain Jai Narayan Prasad NishadBihar Buxar Jagada Nand SinghChandigarh Chandigarh Pawan Kumar BansalChattisgarh Raipur Ramesh BaisChattisgarh Bilaspur Dilip Singh JudevChattisgarh Korba Charan Das MahantChattisgarh Durg Saroj PandeyDadra & Nagar Haveli Dadar & Nagar Haveli Patel Natubhai GomanbhaiGoa North Goa Shripad Yesso NaikGoa South Goa Cosme Francisco Caitano SardinhaGujarat Surat Shrimati Darshana Vikram JardoshGujarat Rajkot Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai BavaliaGujarat Bhavnagar Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana)Gujarat Jamnagar Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai MadamGujarat Kheda Dinsha PatelGujarat Valsad Kishanbhai Vestabhai PatelGujarat Panchmahal Chauhan Prabhatsinh PratapsinhGujarat Junagadh Solanki Dinubhai BoghabhaiGujarat Bharuch Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai VasavaGujarat Banaskantha Gadhvi Mukeshkumar BheiravdanjiGujarat Anand Solanki Bharatbhai MadhavsinhGujarat Mahesana Patel Jayshreeben KanubhaiGujarat Sabarkantha Chauhan MahendrasinhGujarat Patan Jagdish ThakorGujarat Surendranagar Koli Patel Somabhai GandalalGujarat Ahmedabad East Harin PathakGujarat Ahmedabad West Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai
  10. 10. Appendix 1: High Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Haryana Gurgaon Inderjit SinghHaryana Faridabad Avtar Singh BhadanaHaryana Ambala SeljaHaryana Sirsa Ashok TanwarHaryana Hisar Bhajan Lal S/O KherajHimachal Pradesh Mandi Virbhadra SinghHimachal Pradesh Kangra Dr. Rajan SushantJammu & Kashmir Srinagar Farooq AbdullahJammu & Kashmir Jammu Madan Lal SharmaJammu & Kashmir Anantnag Mirza Mehboob BegJammu & Kashmir Udhampur Ch. Lal SinghJharkhand Ranchi Subodh Kant SahayJharkhand Jamshedpur Arjun MundaJharkhand Dhanbad Pashupati Nath SinghJharkhand Singhbhum Madhu KoraKarnataka Mysore Adagur H VishwanathKarnataka Dakshina Kannada Nalin Kumar KateelKarnataka Gulbarga Mallikarjun KhargeKarnataka Bellary J. ShanthaKarnataka Davanagere G.M. SiddeswaraKarnataka Udupi Chikmagalur D.V.Sadananda GowdaKarnataka Tumkur G.S. BasavarajKarnataka Uttara Kannada Anantkumar HegdeKarnataka Bangalore Rural H.D.KumaraswamyKarnataka Bangalore North D. B. Chandre GowdaKarnataka Bangalore Central P. C. MohanKarnataka Bangalore South Ananth KumarKerala Thiruvananthapuram Shashi TharoorKerala Ernakulam Prof. K V ThomasKerala Palakkad M.B. RajeshKerala Kottayam Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal)Kerala Thrissur P C ChackoKerala Alappuzha K.C VenugopalKerala Kollam N.PeethambarakurupKerala Malappuram E. AhamedKerala Kozhikode M.K. RaghavanKerala Kannur K. SudhakaranMadhya Pradesh Indore Sumitra Mahajan (Tai)Madhya Pradesh Bhopal Kailash JoshiMadhya Pradesh Gwalior Yashodhara Raje ScindiaMadhya Pradesh Jabalpur Rakesh SinghMadhya Pradesh Ujjain Guddu PremchandMadhya Pradesh Rewa Deoraj Singh PatelMadhya Pradesh Satna Ganesh SinghMadhya Pradesh Dewas Sajjan Singh VermaMadhya Pradesh Dhar Gajendra Singh RajukhediMaharashtra Pune Kalmadi SureshMaharashtra Nagpur Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji
  11. 11. Appendix 1: High Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Maharashtra Aurangabad Chandrakant KhaireMaharashtra Nashik Sameer BhujbalMaharashtra Thane Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh NaikMaharashtra Kolhapur Sadashivrao Dadoba MandlikMaharashtra Kalyan Anand Prakash ParanjapeMaharashtra Latur Awale Jaywant GangaramMaharashtra Dhule Sonawane Pratap NarayanraoMaharashtra Sangli Pratik Prakashbapu PatilMaharashtra Amravati Adsul Anandrao VithobaMaharashtra Jalna Danve Raosaheb DadaraoMaharashtra Ahmadnagar Gandhi Dilipkumar MansukhlalMaharashtra Osmanabad Patil Padamsinha BajiraoMaharashtra Chandrapur Ahir Hansaraj GangaramMaharashtra Mumbai North Sanjay Brijkishorlal NirupamMaharashtra Mumbai North West Ad.Kamat Gurudas VasantMaharashtra Mumbai North East Sanjay Dina PatilMaharashtra Mumbai North Central Dutt Priya SunilMaharashtra Mumbai South Central Eknath M. GaikwadMaharashtra Mumbai South Deora Milind MurliNCT OF Delhi Chandni Chowk Kapil SibalNCT OF Delhi North East Delhi Jai Prakash AgarwalNCT OF Delhi East Delhi Sandeep DikshitNCT OF Delhi New Delhi Ajay MakanNCT OF Delhi North West Delhi Krishna TirathNCT OF Delhi West Delhi Mahabal MishraNCT OF Delhi South Delhi Ramesh KumarOrissa Sambalpur Amarnath PradhanPunjab Ludhiana Manish TewariPunjab Amritsar Navjot Singh SidhuPunjab Hoshiarpur Santosh ChowdharyPunjab Patiala Preneet KaurPunjab Gurdaspur Partap Singh BajwaRajasthan Jaipur Mahesh JoshiRajasthan Jodhpur Chandresh KumariRajasthan Kota Ijyaraj SinghRajasthan Bikaner Arjun Ram MeghwalRajasthan Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Namo NarainTamil Nadu Coimbatore Natarajan.P.R.Tamil Nadu Salem Semmalai STamil Nadu Tirunelveli Ramasubbu STamil Nadu Erode Ganeshamurthi.A.Tamil Nadu Madurai Alagiri M.KTamil Nadu Viluppuram Anandan MTamil Nadu Virudhunagar Manicka TagoreTamil Nadu Kancheepuram Viswanathan.PTamil Nadu Sivaganga Chidambaram PTamil Nadu Chennai North Elangovan T.K.STamil Nadu Chennai South Rajendran C
  12. 12. Appendix 1: High Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Tamil Nadu Chennai Central Dayanidhi MaranUttar Pradesh Lucknow Lal Ji TandonUttar Pradesh Kanpur Sri Prakash JaiswalUttar Pradesh Gautam Buddh Nagar Surendra Singh NagarUttar Pradesh Allahabad Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh Alias Mani JiUttar Pradesh Varanasi Dr. Murli Manohar JoshiUttar Pradesh Agra Dr. RamshankarUttar Pradesh Ghaziabad Rajnath SinghUttar Pradesh Meerut Rajendra AgarwalUttar Pradesh Bareilly Praveen Singh AronUttar Pradesh Aligarh Raj Kumari ChauhanUttar Pradesh Moradabad Mohammed AzharuddinUttar Pradesh Muzaffarnagar Kadir RanaUttar Pradesh Chandauli RamkishunUttar Pradesh Kheri Zafar Ali NaqviUttarakhand Almora Pradeep TamtaWest Bengal Howrah Ambica BanerjeeWest Bengal Balurghat Prasanta Kumar MajumdarWest Bengal Kolkata Dakshin Mamata BanerjeeWest Bengal Kolkata Uttar Sudip Bandyopadhyay
  13. 13. Appendix 2: Moderate Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Sitting MPAndhra Pradesh Warangal Rajaiah SiricillaAndhra Pradesh Kurnool Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash ReddyAndhra Pradesh Eluru Kavuri Sambasiva RaoAndhra Pradesh Anantapur Anantha Venkata Rami ReddyAndhra Pradesh Srikakulam Killi Krupa RaniAndhra Pradesh Machilipatnam Konakalla Narayana RaoAssam Gauhati Bijoya ChakravartyAssam Jorhat Bijoy Krishna HandiqueAssam Karimganj Lalit Mohan SuklabaidyaBihar Bhagalpur Syed Shahnawaz HussainBihar Katihar Nikhil Kumar ChoudharyBihar Darbhanga Kirti AzadBihar Madhubani Hukmadeo Narayan YadavDaman & Diu Daman & Diu Lalubhai PatelGujarat Vadodara Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla)Gujarat Gandhinagar L.K.AdvaniHaryana Karnal Arvind Kumar SharmaHaryana Bhiwani-Mahendragarh Shruti ChoudhryHaryana Rohtak Deepender SinghHimachal Pradesh Shimla Virender KashyapKarnataka Belgaum Angadi Suresh ChannabasappaKarnataka Bijapur Ramesh Chandappa JigajinagiKarnataka Shimoga B.Y. RaghavendraKarnataka Raichur Pakkirappa.S.Karnataka Mandya N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ SwamygowdaKerala Kasaragod P KarunakaranMadhya Pradesh Ratlam Kantilal BhuriaMadhya Pradesh Shahdol Rajesh Nandini SinghMadhya Pradesh Mandsour Meenakshi NatrajanMaharashtra Solapur Shinde Sushilkumar SambhajiraoMaharashtra Nanded Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao BapuraoMaharashtra Akola Dhotre Sanjay ShamraoMaharashtra Jalgaon A.T. Nana PatilMaharashtra Ratnagiri - Sindhudurg Dr.Nilesh Narayan RaneMaharashtra Bhiwandi Taware Suresh KashinathMaharashtra Palghar Jadhav Baliram SukurMeghalaya Shillong Vincent H PalaMeghalaya Tura Agatha K. SangmaMizoram Mizoram C.L.RualaOrissa Bhubaneswar Prasanna Kumar PatasaniOrissa Berhampur Sidhant MohapatraOrissa Balasore Srikant Kumar JenaOrissa Sundargarh Hemanand BiswalPuducherry Puducherry NarayanasamyPunjab Sangrur Vijay Inder SinglaPunjab Ferozpur Sher Singh GhubayaRajasthan Udaipur Raghuvir Singh MeenaRajasthan Ajmer Sachin Pilot
  14. 14. Appendix 2: Moderate Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Rajasthan Churu Ram Singh KaswanTamil Nadu Vellore Abdul RahmanTamil Nadu Kanniyakumari Helen Davidson JTamil Nadu Cuddalore Alagiri STamil Nadu Tiruchirappalli Kumar.PTamil Nadu Karur Thambidurai.MUttar Pradesh Gorakhpur AdityanathUttar Pradesh Jhansi Pradeep Kumar Jain (Aditya)Uttar Pradesh Saharanpur Jagdish Singh RanaUttar Pradesh Rampur Jaya Prada NahataUttar Pradesh Azamgarh Ramakant YadavUttar Pradesh Sitapur Kaisar JahanUttar Pradesh Faizabad Nirmal KhatriUttar Pradesh Bijnor Sanjay Singh ChauhanUttar Pradesh Fatehpur Sikri Seema UpadhyayUttar Pradesh Mirzapur Bal Kumar PatelWest Bengal Burdwan - Durgapur Sk. Saidul HaqueWest Bengal Asansol Bansa Gopal ChowdhuryWest Bengal Purulia Narahari Mahato
  15. 15. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Andaman & Nicobar Islands Andaman & Nicobar Islands Shri. Bishnu Pada RayAndhra Pradesh Nizamabad Madhu Yaskhi GoudAndhra Pradesh Vizianagaram Jhansi Lakshmi BotchaAndhra Pradesh Ongole Magunta Srinivasulu ReddyAndhra Pradesh Mahbubnagar K. Chandrasekhar RaoAndhra Pradesh Medak Vijaya Shanthi .MAndhra Pradesh Malkajgiri Sarvey SathyanarayanaAndhra Pradesh Chelvella Jaipal Reddy SudiniAndhra Pradesh Aruku Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo VyricherlaAndhra Pradesh Adilabad Rathod RameshAndhra Pradesh Peddapalle Dr.G.VivekanandAndhra Pradesh Zahirabad Suresh Kumar ShetkarAndhra Pradesh Secundrabad Anjan Kumar Yadav MAndhra Pradesh Nagarkurnool Dr. Manda JagannathAndhra Pradesh Nalgonda Gutha Sukender ReddyAndhra Pradesh Bhongir Komatireddy Raj Gopal ReddyAndhra Pradesh Mahabubabad P. BalramAndhra Pradesh Khammam Nama Nageswara RaoAndhra Pradesh Anakapalli Sabbam HariAndhra Pradesh Amalapuram G.V.Harsha KumarAndhra Pradesh Narsapuram Bapiraju KanumuruAndhra Pradesh Bapatla Panabaka LakshmiAndhra Pradesh Nandyal S.P.Y.ReddyAndhra Pradesh Hindupur Kristappa NimmalaAndhra Pradesh Kadapa Y.S. Jagan Mohan ReddyAndhra Pradesh Rajampet Annayyagari Sai PrathapArunachal Pradesh Arunachal East Ninong EringAssam Lakhimpur Ranee NarahAssam Barpeta Ismail HussainAssam Autonomous District Biren Singh EngtiAssam Kaliabor Dip GogoiAssam Dhubri Badruddin AjmalAssam Kokrajhar Sansuma Khunggur BwiswmuthiaryAssam Mangaldoi Ramen DekaAssam Nowgong Rajen GohainBihar Gaya Hari ManjhiBihar Siwan Om Prakash YadavBihar Valmiki Nagar Baidyanath Prasad MahtoBihar Ujiarpur Aswamedh DeviBihar Karakat Mahabali SinghBihar Paschim Champaran Dr. Sanjay JaiswalBihar Purvi Champaran Radha Mohan SinghBihar Sheohar Rama DeviBihar Sitamarhi Arjun RoyBihar Jhanjharpur Mangani Lal MandalBihar Supaul Vishwa Mohan Kumar
  16. 16. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Bihar Araria Pradeep Kumar SinghBihar Kishanganj Mohammad Asrarul HaqueBihar Purnia Uday Singh Alias Pappu SinghBihar Madhepura Sharad YadavBihar Vaishali Raghuvansh Prasad SinghBihar Gopalganj Purnmasi RamBihar Maharajganj Uma Shanaker SinghBihar Saran Lalu PrasadBihar Hajipur Ram Sundar DasBihar Samastipur Maheshwar HazariBihar Begusarai Dr. Monazir HassanBihar Khagaria Dinesh Chandra YadavBihar Banka Digvijay SinghBihar Munger Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan SinghBihar Nalanda Kaushalendra KumarBihar Arrah Meena SinghBihar Sasaram Meira KumarBihar Jahanabad Jagdish SharmaBihar Aurangabad Sushil Kumar SinghBihar Nawada Bhola SinghBihar Jamui Bhudeo ChoudharyChattisgarh Raigarh Vishnu Deo SaiChattisgarh Sarguja Murarilal SinghChattisgarh Janjgir-Champa Shrimati Kamla Devi PatleChattisgarh Rajnandgaon Madhusudan YadavChattisgarh Mahasamund Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya)Chattisgarh Bastar Baliram KashyapChattisgarh Kanker Sohan PotaiGujarat Amreli Kachhadia NaranbhaiGujarat Porbandar Radadiya Vitthalbhai HansrajbhaiGujarat Bardoli Chaudhari Tusharbhai AmrasinhbhaiGujarat Kachchh Jat Poonamben VeljibhaiGujarat Dahod Dr. Prabha Kishor TaviadGujarat Chhota Udaipur Rathwa Ramsingbhai PatalbhaiGujarat Navsari C. R. PatilHaryana Kurukshetra Naveen JindalHaryana Sonipat Jitender SinghHimachal Pradesh Hamirpur Anurag Singh ThakurJammu & Kashmir Ladakh Hassan KhanJammu & Kashmir Baramulla Sharief Ud Din ShariqJharkhand Hazaribagh Yashwant SinhaJharkhand Godda Nishikant DubeyJharkhand Dumka Shibu SorenJharkhand Rajmahal Devidhan BesraJharkhand Chatra Inder Singh NamdhariJharkhand Kodarma Babulal MarandiJharkhand Giridih Ravindra Kumar PandeyJharkhand Khunti Karia Munda
  17. 17. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Jharkhand Lohardaga Sudarshan BhagatJharkhand Palamau Kameshwar BaithaKarnataka Bidar N.Dharam SinghKarnataka Bagalkot Gaddigoudar P.C.Karnataka Dharwad Pralhad JoshiKarnataka Chamarajanagar R.DhruvanarayanaKarnataka Chikkodi Katti Ramesh VishwanathKarnataka Koppal Shivaramagouda ShivanagoudaKarnataka Haveri Udasi Shivkumar ChanabasappaKarnataka Hassan H. D. DevegowdaKarnataka Chitradurga Janardhana SwamyKarnataka Chikkballapur M.Veerappa MoilyKarnataka Kolar K.H.MuniyappaKerala Mavelikkara Kodikkunnil SureshKerala Vadakara Mullappally RamachandranKerala Alathur P.K BijuKerala Chalakudy K.P. DhanapalanKerala Pathanamthitta Anto Antony PunnathaniyilKerala Attingal Adv. A SampathKerala Wayanad M.I. ShanavasKerala Ponnani E.T. Muhammed BasheerKerala Idukki Adv. P.T ThomasLakshadweep Lakshadweep Hamdullah SayeedMadhya Pradesh Sagar Bhupendra SinghMadhya Pradesh Hoshangabad Uday Pratap SinghMadhya Pradesh Khandwa Arun Subhashchandra YadavMadhya Pradesh Balaghat K. D. DeshmukhMadhya Pradesh Khargone Makansingh Solanki (Babuji)Madhya Pradesh Morena Narendra Singh TomarMadhya Pradesh Bhind Ashok ArgalMadhya Pradesh Guna Jyotiraditya Madhavrao ScindiaMadhya Pradesh Tikamgarh Virendra KumarMadhya Pradesh Damoh Shivraj BhaiyaMadhya Pradesh Khajuraho Jeetendra Singh BundelaMadhya Pradesh Sidhi Govind Prasad MishraMadhya Pradesh Mandla Basori Singh MasramMadhya Pradesh Chhindwara Kamal NathMadhya Pradesh Vidisha Sushma SwarajMadhya Pradesh Rajgarh Narayansingh AmlabeMadhya Pradesh Betul Jyoti DhurveMaharashtra Yavatmal-Washim Bhavana Gawali (Patil)Maharashtra Parbhani Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao NagoraoMaharashtra Wardha Datta MegheMaharashtra Maval Babar Gajanan DharmshiMaharashtra Nandurbar Gavit Manikrao HodlyaMaharashtra Raver Haribhau Madhav JawaleMaharashtra Buldhana Jadhav Prataprao GanpatraoMaharashtra Ramtek Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna
  18. 18. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Maharashtra Bhandara - Gondiya Patel Praful ManoharbhaiMaharashtra Gadchiroli-Chimur Kowase Marotrao SainujiMaharashtra Hingoli Subhash Bapurao WankhedeMaharashtra Dindori Chavan Harishchandra DeoramMaharashtra Raigad Anant GeeteMaharashtra Baramati Supriya SuleMaharashtra Shirur Adhalrao Shivaji DattatrayMaharashtra Shirdi Wakchaure Bhausaheb RajaramMaharashtra Beed Munde Gopinathrao PandurangMaharashtra Madha Pawar Sharadchandra GovindraoMaharashtra Satara Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje PratapsinhmaharajMaharashtra Hatkanangle Shetti Raju Alias Devappa AnnaManipur Inner Manipur Dr. Thokchom MeinyaManipur Outer Manipur Thangso BaiteNagaland Nagaland C.M. ChangOrissa Cuttack Bhartruhari MahtabOrissa Bargarh Sanjay BhoiOrissa Keonjhar Yashbant Narayan Singh LaguriOrissa Mayurbhanj Laxman TuduOrissa Bhadrak Arjun Charan SethiOrissa Jajpur Mohan JenaOrissa Dhenkanal Tathagata SatpathyOrissa Bolangir Kalikesh Narayan Singh DeoOrissa Kalahandi Bhakta Charan DasOrissa Nabarangpur Pradeep Kumar MajhiOrissa Kandhamal Rudramadhab RayOrissa Kendrapara Baijayant PandaOrissa Jagatsinghpur Bibhu Prasad TaraiOrissa Puri Pinaki MisraOrissa Aska Nityananda PradhanOrissa Koraput Jayaram PangiPunjab Faridkot Paramjit Kaur GulshanPunjab Fatehgarh Sahib Sukhdev SinghPunjab Khadoor Sahib Dr. Rattan Singh AjnalaPunjab Anandpur Sahib Ravneet SinghPunjab Jalandhar Mohinder Singh KaypeePunjab Bathinda Harsimrat Kaur BadalRajasthan Bhilwara Dr. C. P. JoshiRajasthan Ganganagar Bharat Ram MeghwalRajasthan Sikar Mahadev SinghRajasthan Jhunjhunu Sheesh Ram OlaRajasthan Chittorgarh (Dr.)Girija VyasRajasthan Jaipur Rural Lal Chand KatariaRajasthan Alwar Jitendra SinghRajasthan Bharatpur Ratan SinghRajasthan Karauli-Dholpur Khiladi Lal BairwaRajasthan Dausa Kirodi LalRajasthan Nagaur Dr. Jyoti Mirdha
  19. 19. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Rajasthan Pali Badri Ram JakharRajasthan Barmer Harish ChoudharyRajasthan Jalore Devji PatelRajasthan Banswara Tarachand BhagoraRajasthan Rajsamand Gopal SinghRajasthan Jhalawar-Baran Dushyant SinghSikkim Sikkim Prem Das RaiTamil Nadu Thanjavur Palanimanickam.S.STamil Nadu Dindigul Chitthan N S VTamil Nadu Thoothukkudi Jeyadurai.S.RTamil Nadu Namakkal Gandhiselvan.STamil Nadu Theni Aaron Rashid.J.MTamil Nadu Arani Krishnasswamy MTamil Nadu Kallakurichi Sankar AdhiTamil Nadu Tiruppur Sivasami CTamil Nadu Thiruvallur Venugopal.PTamil Nadu Sriperumbudur Baalu T RTamil Nadu Arakkonam JagathrakshakanTamil Nadu Krishnagiri Sugavanam. E.G.Tamil Nadu Dharmapuri Thamaraiselvan. RTamil Nadu Tiruvannamalai Venugopal.DTamil Nadu Nilgiris Raja ATamil Nadu Pollachi Sugumar.KTamil Nadu Perambalur Napoleon,D.Tamil Nadu Chidambaram Thirumaavalavan, TholTamil Nadu Mayiladuthurai Maniyan O.S.Tamil Nadu Nagapattinam Vijayan A K STamil Nadu Ramanathapuram Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. KTamil Nadu Tenkasi Lingam PTripura Tripura West Khagen DasTripura Tripura East Baju Ban RiyanUttar Pradesh Mathura Jayant ChaudharyUttar Pradesh Jaunpur Dhananjay SinghUttar Pradesh Deoria Gorakh Prasad JaiswalUttar Pradesh Shahjahanpur MithleshUttar Pradesh Etawah PremdasUttar Pradesh Pratapgarh Rajkumari Ratna SinghUttar Pradesh Kushi Nagar Ku. Ratanjeet Pratap Narayan SinghUttar Pradesh Farrukhabad Salman KhursheedUttar Pradesh Gonda Beni Prasad VermaUttar Pradesh Bahraich Kamal KishorUttar Pradesh Sambhal Dr. Shafiqur Rahman BarqUttar Pradesh Ballia Neeraj ShekharUttar Pradesh Badaun Dharmendra YadavUttar Pradesh Nagina Yashvir SinghUttar Pradesh Dhaurahra Kunwar Jitin PrasadUttar Pradesh Bhadohi GorakhnathUttar Pradesh Kairana Tabassum Begum
  20. 20. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009Uttar Pradesh Amroha Devendra NagpalUttar Pradesh Baghpat Ajit SinghUttar Pradesh Bulandshahr KamleshUttar Pradesh Hathras Sarika SinghUttar Pradesh Firozabad Akhilesh YadavUttar Pradesh Mainpuri Mulayam Singh YadavUttar Pradesh Etah Kalyan Singh R O MadholiUttar Pradesh Aonla Menka GandhiUttar Pradesh Pilibhit Feroze Varun GandhiUttar Pradesh Hardoi Usha VermaUttar Pradesh Misrikh Ashok Kumar RawatUttar Pradesh Unnao AnnutandonUttar Pradesh Mohanlalganj Sushila SarojUttar Pradesh Rae Bareli Sonia GandhiUttar Pradesh Amethi Rahul GandhiUttar Pradesh Sultanpur Dr.Sanjay SinghUttar Pradesh Kannauj Akhilesh YadavUttar Pradesh Akbarpur Rajaram PalUttar Pradesh Jalaun Ghansyam AnuragiUttar Pradesh Hamirpur Vijay Bahadur SinghUttar Pradesh Banda R. K. Singh PatelUttar Pradesh Fatehpur Rakesh SachanUttar Pradesh Kaushambi Shailendra KumarUttar Pradesh Phulpur Kapil Muni KarwariyaUttar Pradesh Barabanki P.L.PuniaUttar Pradesh Ambedkar Nagar Rakesh PandeyUttar Pradesh Kaiserganj Brijbhushan Sharan SinghUttar Pradesh Shrawasti Vinay Kumar Alias VinnuUttar Pradesh Domariyaganj Jagdambika PalUttar Pradesh Basti Arvind Kumar ChaudharyUttar Pradesh Sant Kabir Nagar Bhisma Shankar Alias Kushal TiwariUttar Pradesh Maharajganj Harsh VardhanUttar Pradesh Bansgaon Kamlesh PaswanUttar Pradesh Lalganj Dr. BaliramUttar Pradesh Ghosi Dara Singh ChauhanUttar Pradesh Salempur Ramashankar RajbharUttar Pradesh Machhlishahr Tufani SarojUttar Pradesh Ghazipur Radhey Mohan SinghUttar Pradesh Robertsganj Pakauri LalUttarakhand Tehri Garhwal Vijay BahugunaUttarakhand Garhwal Satpal MaharajUttarakhand Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar K.C. Singh BabaUttarakhand Hardwar Harish RawatWest Bengal Cooch Behar Nripendra Nath RoyWest Bengal Ranaghat Sucharu Ranjan HaldarWest Bengal Bangaon Gobinda Chandra NaskarWest Bengal Joynagar Dr. Tarun MondalWest Bengal Ghatal Gurudas Dasgupta
  21. 21. Appendix 3: Low / No Impact ConstituenciesState Constituency Winner in 2009West Bengal Alipurduars Manohar TirkeyWest Bengal Jalpaiguri Mahendra Kumar RoyWest Bengal Darjeeling Jaswant SinghWest Bengal Raiganj Deepa DasmunsiWest Bengal Maldaha Uttar Mausam NoorWest Bengal Maldaha Dakshin Abu Hasem Khan ChoudhuryWest Bengal Jangipur Pranab MukherjeeWest Bengal Baharampur Adhir Ranjan ChowdhuryWest Bengal Murshidabad Abdul Mannan HossainWest Bengal Krishnanagar Tapas PaulWest Bengal Barrackpore Dinesh TrivediWest Bengal Dum Dum Sougata RayWest Bengal Barasat Kakali Ghosh DastidarWest Bengal Basirhat Sk. Nurul IslamWest Bengal Mathurapur Choudhury Mohan JatuaWest Bengal Diamond Harbour Somendra Nath MitraWest Bengal Jadavpur Kabir SumanWest Bengal Uluberia Sultan AhmedWest Bengal Srerampur Kalyan BanerjeeWest Bengal Hooghly Dr. Ratna De (Nag)West Bengal Arambagh Malik Sakti MohanWest Bengal Tamluk Adhikari SuvenduWest Bengal Kanthi Adhikari Sisir KumarWest Bengal Jhargram Pulin Bihari BaskeWest Bengal Medinipur Prabodh PandaWest Bengal Bankura Acharia BasudebWest Bengal Bishnupur Susmita BauriWest Bengal Bardhaman Purba Anup Kumar SahaWest Bengal Bolpur Doctor Ram Chandra DomeWest Bengal Birbhum Satabdi Roy
  22. 22. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 ImpactAndaman & Nicobar Islands Andaman & Nicobar Islands Shri. Bishnu Pada Ray No ImpactAndhra PradeshHyderabad Asaduddin Owaisi High ImpactVisakhapatnam Daggubati Purandeswari High ImpactVijayawada Lagadapati Raja Gopal High ImpactGuntur Rayapati Sambasiva Rao High ImpactRajahmundry Aruna Kumar Vundavalli High ImpactKakinada M.M.Pallamraju High ImpactTirupati Chinta Mohan High ImpactNellore Mekapati Rajamohan Reddy High ImpactKarimnagar Ponnam Prabhakar High ImpactNarasaraopet Modugula Venugopala Reddy High ImpactChittoor Naramalli Sivaprasad High ImpactNizamabad Madhu Yaskhi Goud Low ImpactVizianagaram Jhansi Lakshmi Botcha Low ImpactOngole Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy Low ImpactMahbubnagar K. Chandrasekhar Rao Low ImpactMedak Vijaya Shanthi .M Low ImpactWarangal Rajaiah Siricilla Medium impactKurnool Kotla Jaya Surya Prakash Reddy Medium impactEluru Kavuri Sambasiva Rao Medium impactAnantapur Anantha Venkata Rami Reddy Medium impactSrikakulam Killi Krupa Rani Medium impactMachilipatnam Konakalla Narayana Rao Medium impactMalkajgiri Sarvey Sathyanarayana No ImpactChelvella Jaipal Reddy Sudini No ImpactAruku Kishore Chandra Suryanarayana Deo Vyricherla No ImpactAdilabad Rathod Ramesh No ImpactPeddapalle Dr.G.Vivekanand No ImpactZahirabad Suresh Kumar Shetkar No ImpactSecundrabad Anjan Kumar Yadav M No ImpactNagarkurnool Dr. Manda Jagannath No ImpactNalgonda Gutha Sukender Reddy No ImpactBhongir Komatireddy Raj Gopal Reddy No ImpactMahabubabad P. Balram No ImpactKhammam Nama Nageswara Rao No ImpactAnakapalli Sabbam Hari No ImpactAmalapuram G.V.Harsha Kumar No ImpactNarsapuram Bapiraju Kanumuru No ImpactBapatla Panabaka Lakshmi No ImpactNandyal S.P.Y.Reddy No ImpactHindupur Kristappa Nimmala No ImpactKadapa Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy No ImpactRajampet Annayyagari Sai Prathap No Impact
  23. 23. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 ImpactArunachal Pradesh Arunachal West Takam Sanjoy High Impact Arunachal East Ninong Ering Low ImpactAssamDibrugarh Paban Singh Ghatowar High ImpactSilchar Kabindra Purkayastha High ImpactTezpur Joseph Toppo High ImpactLakhimpur Ranee Narah Low ImpactBarpeta Ismail Hussain Low ImpactGauhati Bijoya Chakravarty Medium impactJorhat Bijoy Krishna Handique Medium impactKarimganj Lalit Mohan Suklabaidya Medium impactAutonomous District Biren Singh Engti No ImpactKaliabor Dip Gogoi No ImpactDhubri Badruddin Ajmal No ImpactKokrajhar Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary No ImpactMangaldoi Ramen Deka No ImpactNowgong Rajen Gohain No ImpactBiharPataliputra Ranjan Prasad Yadav High ImpactPatna Sahib Shatrughan Sinha High ImpactMuzaffarpur Captain Jai Narayan Prasad Nishad High ImpactBuxar Jagada Nand Singh High ImpactGaya Hari Manjhi Low ImpactSiwan Om Prakash Yadav Low ImpactBhagalpur Syed Shahnawaz Hussain Medium impactKatihar Nikhil Kumar Choudhary Medium impactDarbhanga Kirti Azad Medium impactMadhubani Hukmadeo Narayan Yadav Medium impactValmiki Nagar Baidyanath Prasad Mahto No ImpactUjiarpur Aswamedh Devi No ImpactKarakat Mahabali Singh No ImpactPaschim Champaran Dr. Sanjay Jaiswal No ImpactPurvi Champaran Radha Mohan Singh No ImpactSheohar Rama Devi No ImpactSitamarhi Arjun Roy No ImpactJhanjharpur Mangani Lal Mandal No ImpactSupaul Vishwa Mohan Kumar No ImpactAraria Pradeep Kumar Singh No ImpactKishanganj Mohammad Asrarul Haque No ImpactPurnia Uday Singh Alias Pappu Singh No ImpactMadhepura Sharad Yadav No ImpactVaishali Raghuvansh Prasad Singh No ImpactGopalganj Purnmasi Ram No ImpactMaharajganj Uma Shanaker Singh No ImpactSaran Lalu Prasad No Impact
  24. 24. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Hajipur Ram Sundar Das No Impact Samastipur Maheshwar Hazari No Impact Begusarai Dr. Monazir Hassan No Impact Khagaria Dinesh Chandra Yadav No Impact Banka Digvijay Singh No Impact Munger Rajiv Ranjan Singh Alias Lalan Singh No Impact Nalanda Kaushalendra Kumar No Impact Arrah Meena Singh No Impact Sasaram Meira Kumar No Impact Jahanabad Jagdish Sharma No Impact Aurangabad Sushil Kumar Singh No Impact Nawada Bhola Singh No Impact Jamui Bhudeo Choudhary No ImpactChandigarh Chandigarh Pawan Kumar Bansal High ImpactChattisgarh Raipur Ramesh Bais High Impact Bilaspur Dilip Singh Judev High Impact Korba Charan Das Mahant High Impact Durg Saroj Pandey High Impact Raigarh Vishnu Deo Sai Low Impact Sarguja Murarilal Singh No Impact Janjgir-Champa Shrimati Kamla Devi Patle No Impact Rajnandgaon Madhusudan Yadav No Impact Mahasamund Chandulal Sahu (Chandu Bhaiya) No Impact Bastar Baliram Kashyap No Impact Kanker Sohan Potai No ImpactDadra & Nagar Haveli Dadar & Nagar Haveli Patel Natubhai Gomanbhai High ImpactDaman & Diu Daman & Diu Lalubhai Patel Medium impactGoa North Goa Shripad Yesso Naik High Impact South Goa Cosme Francisco Caitano Sardinha High ImpactGujarat Surat Shrimati Darshana Vikram Jardosh High Impact Rajkot Kuvarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavalia High Impact Bhavnagar Rajendrasinh Ghanshyamsinh Rana (Rajubhai Rana) High Impact Jamnagar Ahir Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Madam High Impact Kheda Dinsha Patel High Impact Valsad Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel High Impact Panchmahal Chauhan Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh High Impact Junagadh Solanki Dinubhai Boghabhai High Impact
  25. 25. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 ImpactBharuch Mansukhbhai Dhanjibhai Vasava High ImpactBanaskantha Gadhvi Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji High ImpactAnand Solanki Bharatbhai Madhavsinh High ImpactMahesana Patel Jayshreeben Kanubhai High ImpactSabarkantha Chauhan Mahendrasinh High ImpactPatan Jagdish Thakor High ImpactSurendranagar Koli Patel Somabhai Gandalal High ImpactAhmedabad East Harin Pathak High ImpactAhmedabad West Dr. Solanki Kiritbhai Premajibhai High ImpactAmreli Kachhadia Naranbhai Low ImpactPorbandar Radadiya Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai Low ImpactVadodara Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla (Balu Shukla) Medium impactGandhinagar L.K.Advani Medium impactBardoli Chaudhari Tusharbhai Amrasinhbhai No ImpactKachchh Jat Poonamben Veljibhai No ImpactDahod Dr. Prabha Kishor Taviad No ImpactChhota Udaipur Rathwa Ramsingbhai Patalbhai No ImpactNavsari C. R. Patil No ImpactHaryanaGurgaon Inderjit Singh High ImpactFaridabad Avtar Singh Bhadana High ImpactAmbala Selja High ImpactSirsa Ashok Tanwar High ImpactHisar Bhajan Lal S/O Kheraj High ImpactKurukshetra Naveen Jindal Low ImpactKarnal Arvind Kumar Sharma Medium impactBhiwani-Mahendragarh Shruti Choudhry Medium impactRohtak Deepender Singh Medium ImpactSonipat Jitender Singh No ImpactHimachal PradeshMandi Virbhadra Singh High ImpactKangra Dr. Rajan Sushant High ImpactHamirpur Anurag Singh Thakur Low ImpactShimla Virender Kashyap Medium impactJammu & KashmirSrinagar Farooq Abdullah High ImpactJammu Madan Lal Sharma High ImpactAnantnag Mirza Mehboob Beg High ImpactUdhampur Ch. Lal Singh High ImpactLadakh Hassan Khan Low ImpactBaramulla Sharief Ud Din Shariq No ImpactJharkhandRanchi Subodh Kant Sahay High ImpactJamshedpur Arjun Munda High Impact
  26. 26. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Dhanbad Pashupati Nath Singh High Impact Hazaribagh Yashwant Sinha Low Impact Godda Nishikant Dubey Low Impact Dumka Shibu Soren Low Impact Singhbhum Madhu Kora High impact Rajmahal Devidhan Besra No Impact Chatra Inder Singh Namdhari No Impact Kodarma Babulal Marandi No Impact Giridih Ravindra Kumar Pandey No Impact Khunti Karia Munda No Impact Lohardaga Sudarshan Bhagat No Impact Palamau Kameshwar Baitha No ImpactKarnataka Mysore Adagur H Vishwanath High Impact Dakshina Kannada Nalin Kumar Kateel High Impact Gulbarga Mallikarjun Kharge High Impact Bellary J. Shantha High Impact Davanagere G.M. Siddeswara High Impact Udupi Chikmagalur D.V.Sadananda Gowda High Impact Tumkur G.S. Basavaraj High Impact Uttara Kannada Anantkumar Hegde High Impact Bangalore Rural H.D.Kumaraswamy High Impact Bangalore North D. B. Chandre Gowda High Impact Bangalore Central P. C. Mohan High Impact Bangalore South Ananth Kumar High Impact Bidar N.Dharam Singh Low Impact Bagalkot Gaddigoudar P.C. Low Impact Dharwad Pralhad Joshi Low Impact Chamarajanagar R.Dhruvanarayana Low Impact Belgaum Angadi Suresh Channabasappa Medium impact Bijapur Ramesh Chandappa Jigajinagi Medium impact Shimoga B.Y. Raghavendra Medium impact Raichur Pakkirappa.S. Medium impact Mandya N Cheluvaraya Swamy @ Swamygowda Medium impact Chikkodi Katti Ramesh Vishwanath No Impact Koppal Shivaramagouda Shivanagouda No Impact Haveri Udasi Shivkumar Chanabasappa No Impact Hassan H. D. Devegowda No Impact Chitradurga Janardhana Swamy No Impact Chikkballapur M.Veerappa Moily No Impact Kolar K.H.Muniyappa No ImpactKerala Thiruvananthapuram Shashi Tharoor High Impact Ernakulam Prof. K V Thomas High Impact Palakkad M.B. Rajesh High Impact Kottayam Jose K.Mani (Karingozheckal) High Impact Thrissur P C Chacko High Impact
  27. 27. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Alappuzha K.C Venugopal High Impact Kollam N.Peethambarakurup High Impact Malappuram E. Ahamed High Impact Kozhikode M.K. Raghavan High Impact Kannur K. Sudhakaran High Impact Mavelikkara Kodikkunnil Suresh Low Impact Kasaragod P Karunakaran Medium impact Vadakara Mullappally Ramachandran No Impact Alathur P.K Biju No Impact Chalakudy K.P. Dhanapalan No Impact Pathanamthitta Anto Antony Punnathaniyil No Impact Attingal Adv. A Sampath No Impact Wayanad M.I. Shanavas No Impact Ponnani E.T. Muhammed Basheer No Impact Idukki Adv. P.T Thomas No ImpactLakshadweep Lakshadweep Hamdullah Sayeed No ImpactMadhya Pradesh Indore Sumitra Mahajan (Tai) High Impact Bhopal Kailash Joshi High Impact Gwalior Yashodhara Raje Scindia High Impact Jabalpur Rakesh Singh High Impact Ujjain Guddu Premchand High Impact Rewa Deoraj Singh Patel High Impact Satna Ganesh Singh High Impact Dewas Sajjan Singh Verma High Impact Dhar Gajendra Singh Rajukhedi High Impact Sagar Bhupendra Singh Low Impact Hoshangabad Uday Pratap Singh Low Impact Khandwa Arun Subhashchandra Yadav Low Impact Balaghat K. D. Deshmukh Low Impact Khargone Makansingh Solanki (Babuji) Low Impact Ratlam Kantilal Bhuria Medium impact Shahdol Rajesh Nandini Singh Medium impact Mandsour Meenakshi Natrajan Medium impact Morena Narendra Singh Tomar No Impact Bhind Ashok Argal No Impact Guna Jyotiraditya Madhavrao Scindia No Impact Tikamgarh Virendra Kumar No Impact Damoh Shivraj Bhaiya No Impact Khajuraho Jeetendra Singh Bundela No Impact Sidhi Govind Prasad Mishra No Impact Mandla Basori Singh Masram No Impact Chhindwara Kamal Nath No Impact Vidisha Sushma Swaraj No Impact Rajgarh Narayansingh Amlabe No Impact
  28. 28. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Betul Jyoti Dhurve No ImpactMaharashtraPune Kalmadi Suresh High ImpactNagpur Muttemwar Vilasrao Baburaoji High ImpactAurangabad Chandrakant Khaire High ImpactNashik Sameer Bhujbal High ImpactThane Dr.Sanjeev Ganesh Naik High ImpactKolhapur Sadashivrao Dadoba Mandlik High ImpactKalyan Anand Prakash Paranjape High ImpactLatur Awale Jaywant Gangaram High ImpactDhule Sonawane Pratap Narayanrao High ImpactSangli Pratik Prakashbapu Patil High ImpactAmravati Adsul Anandrao Vithoba High ImpactJalna Danve Raosaheb Dadarao High ImpactAhmadnagar Gandhi Dilipkumar Mansukhlal High ImpactOsmanabad Patil Padamsinha Bajirao High ImpactChandrapur Ahir Hansaraj Gangaram High ImpactMumbai North Sanjay Brijkishorlal Nirupam High ImpactMumbai North West Ad.Kamat Gurudas Vasant High ImpactMumbai North East Sanjay Dina Patil High ImpactMumbai North Central Dutt Priya Sunil High ImpactMumbai South Central Eknath M. Gaikwad High ImpactMumbai South Deora Milind Murli High ImpactYavatmal-Washim Bhavana Gawali (Patil) Low ImpactParbhani Adv. Dudhgaonkar Ganeshrao Nagorao Low ImpactWardha Datta Meghe Low ImpactSolapur Shinde Sushilkumar Sambhajirao Medium impactNanded Khatgaonkar Patil Bhaskarrao Bapurao Medium impactAkola Dhotre Sanjay Shamrao Medium impactJalgaon A.T. Nana Patil Medium impactRatnagiri - Sindhudurg Dr.Nilesh Narayan Rane Medium impactBhiwandi Taware Suresh Kashinath Medium impactPalghar Jadhav Baliram Sukur Medium impactMaval Babar Gajanan Dharmshi No ImpactNandurbar Gavit Manikrao Hodlya No ImpactRaver Haribhau Madhav Jawale No ImpactBuldhana Jadhav Prataprao Ganpatrao No ImpactRamtek Wasnik Mukul Balkrishna No ImpactBhandara - Gondiya Patel Praful Manoharbhai No ImpactGadchiroli-Chimur Kowase Marotrao Sainuji No ImpactHingoli Subhash Bapurao Wankhede No ImpactDindori Chavan Harishchandra Deoram No ImpactRaigad Anant Geete No ImpactBaramati Supriya Sule No ImpactShirur Adhalrao Shivaji Dattatray No ImpactShirdi Wakchaure Bhausaheb Rajaram No ImpactBeed Munde Gopinathrao Pandurang No Impact
  29. 29. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Madha Pawar Sharadchandra Govindrao No Impact Satara Bhonsle Shrimant Chh. Udyanraje Pratapsinhmaharaj No Impact Hatkanangle Shetti Raju Alias Devappa Anna No ImpactManipur Inner Manipur Dr. Thokchom Meinya No Impact Outer Manipur Thangso Baite No ImpactMeghalaya Shillong Vincent H Pala Medium impact Tura Agatha K. Sangma Medium impactMizoram Mizoram C.L.Ruala Medium impactNagaland Nagaland C.M. Chang No ImpactNCT OF Delhi Chandni Chowk Kapil Sibal High Impact North East Delhi Jai Prakash Agarwal High Impact East Delhi Sandeep Dikshit High Impact New Delhi Ajay Makan High Impact North West Delhi Krishna Tirath High Impact West Delhi Mahabal Mishra High Impact South Delhi Ramesh Kumar High ImpactOrissa Sambalpur Amarnath Pradhan High Impact Cuttack Bhartruhari Mahtab Low Impact Bhubaneswar Prasanna Kumar Patasani Medium impact Berhampur Sidhant Mohapatra Medium impact Balasore Srikant Kumar Jena Medium impact Sundargarh Hemanand Biswal Medium impact Bargarh Sanjay Bhoi No Impact Keonjhar Yashbant Narayan Singh Laguri No Impact Mayurbhanj Laxman Tudu No Impact Bhadrak Arjun Charan Sethi No Impact Jajpur Mohan Jena No Impact Dhenkanal Tathagata Satpathy No Impact Bolangir Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo No Impact Kalahandi Bhakta Charan Das No Impact Nabarangpur Pradeep Kumar Majhi No Impact Kandhamal Rudramadhab Ray No Impact Kendrapara Baijayant Panda No Impact Jagatsinghpur Bibhu Prasad Tarai No Impact Puri Pinaki Misra No Impact
  30. 30. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 Impact Aska Nityananda Pradhan No Impact Koraput Jayaram Pangi No ImpactPuducherry Puducherry Narayanasamy Medium impactPunjabLudhiana Manish Tewari High ImpactAmritsar Navjot Singh Sidhu High ImpactHoshiarpur Santosh Chowdhary High ImpactPatiala Preneet Kaur High ImpactGurdaspur Partap Singh Bajwa High ImpactFaridkot Paramjit Kaur Gulshan Low ImpactFatehgarh Sahib Sukhdev Singh Low ImpactSangrur Vijay Inder Singla Medium impactFerozpur Sher Singh Ghubaya Medium impactKhadoor Sahib Dr. Rattan Singh Ajnala No ImpactAnandpur Sahib Ravneet Singh No ImpactJalandhar Mohinder Singh Kaypee No ImpactBathinda Harsimrat Kaur Badal No ImpactRajasthanJaipur Mahesh Joshi High ImpactJodhpur Chandresh Kumari High ImpactKota Ijyaraj Singh High ImpactBikaner Arjun Ram Meghwal High ImpactTonk-Sawai Madhopur Namo Narain High ImpactBhilwara Dr. C. P. Joshi Low ImpactGanganagar Bharat Ram Meghwal Low ImpactSikar Mahadev Singh Low ImpactJhunjhunu Sheesh Ram Ola Low ImpactChittorgarh (Dr.)Girija Vyas Low ImpactUdaipur Raghuvir Singh Meena Medium impactAjmer Sachin Pilot Medium impactChuru Ram Singh Kaswan Medium impactJaipur Rural Lal Chand Kataria No ImpactAlwar Jitendra Singh No ImpactBharatpur Ratan Singh No ImpactKarauli-Dholpur Khiladi Lal Bairwa No ImpactDausa Kirodi Lal No ImpactNagaur Dr. Jyoti Mirdha No ImpactPali Badri Ram Jakhar No ImpactBarmer Harish Choudhary No ImpactJalore Devji Patel No ImpactBanswara Tarachand Bhagora No ImpactRajsamand Gopal Singh No ImpactJhalawar-Baran Dushyant Singh No Impact
  31. 31. Appendix 4: State wise data Constituency Winner in 2009 ImpactSikkim Sikkim Prem Das Rai No ImpactTamil NaduCoimbatore Natarajan.P.R. High ImpactSalem Semmalai S High ImpactTirunelveli Ramasubbu S High ImpactErode Ganeshamurthi.A. High ImpactMadurai Alagiri M.K High ImpactViluppuram Anandan M High ImpactVirudhunagar Manicka Tagore High ImpactKancheepuram Viswanathan.P High ImpactSivaganga Chidambaram P High ImpactChennai North Elangovan T.K.S High ImpactChennai South Rajendran C High ImpactChennai Central Dayanidhi Maran High ImpactThanjavur Palanimanickam.S.S Low ImpactDindigul Chitthan N S V Low ImpactThoothukkudi Jeyadurai.S.R Low ImpactNamakkal Gandhiselvan.S Low ImpactTheni Aaron Rashid.J.M Low ImpactVellore Abdul Rahman Medium impactKanniyakumari Helen Davidson J Medium impactCuddalore Alagiri S Medium impactTiruchirappalli Kumar.P Medium impactKarur Thambidurai.M Medium impactArani Krishnasswamy M No ImpactKallakurichi Sankar Adhi No ImpactTiruppur Sivasami C No ImpactThiruvallur Venugopal.P No ImpactSriperumbudur Baalu T R No ImpactArakkonam Jagathrakshakan No ImpactKrishnagiri Sugavanam. E.G. No ImpactDharmapuri Thamaraiselvan. R No ImpactTiruvannamalai Venugopal.D No ImpactNilgiris Raja A No ImpactPollachi Sugumar.K No ImpactPerambalur Napoleon,D. No ImpactChidambaram Thirumaavalavan, Thol No ImpactMayiladuthurai Maniyan O.S. No ImpactNagapattinam Vijayan A K S No ImpactRamanathapuram Sivakumar @ J.K. Ritheesh. K No ImpactTenkasi Lingam P No ImpactTripuraTripura West Khagen Das Low ImpactTripura East Baju Ban Riyan No Impact