2020 Vision

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Looking at the customer environment, thinking ten years ahead. Prepared for Traidcraft (the UK's leading fair trade organisation) pro bono by Brahm and uploaded with Traidcraft's blessing. Commercially sensitive slides have been removed.

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  • 2020 Vision – speaker notes
    (as they don't seem to be showing up at the moment)

    Slide 4Unfogging the future
    Finger in the air, inexact
    Basing predictions on what’s happening now

    Slide 12
    The grey shaded area on the graph represents the age profile of the population as it is now and the pink line shows the expected shift in profile by 2013.

    Going Up:-
    Baby Boomers, their children and their grandchildren.
    those aged over 65
    Going Down:-
    teenagers
    35-44 year olds

    Slide 13
    More ‘family formers’ (+ more working parents) = demand for childcare
    More single parent households and family formers = more demand for suitable housing (assuming credit available)

    Slide 14
    Still feeling quite young and healthy at retirement + state pension age changes + opposition to mandatory retirement at 65 = longer working lives
    Increased life expectancy = large number of very elderly people by 2013. Their health, retirement and care needs will contribute to a 7.9% growth in the population of carers – and of working adults caring for elderly relatives.

    Slide 16
    If there was no change in the state pension age, by 2033 we could have on person of state pension age for every 2.2 people of working age (source: ONS)
    •Over 55s = young elderly
    •Relatively wealthy, sophisticated and youthful
    •In our heads we’re all 25
    •Individuals not a group
    •Pro age not anti age

    Slide 20
    Also don’t forget the ‘Digitally Disconnected’ – according to UK Government’s Digital Inclusion Task Force, at present there are at least 10 million adults in the UK who have never been online

    Slide 21
    Multiple screens & chips in every home – average for my co-workers is 10 screens, 9 remotes & 6 ‘computers’ at home (stats thanks to Paul Mallett)
    In April 08, 47% of web users were simultaneously watching TV and surfing the internet at least once a day (IAB 04/08)
    Permanently connected web becoming integral part of human life

    Slide 24
    Increasing number of sets per household – note scale hides massive growth in recent years – 8% growth ‘05 – ‘09 vs. 5% ‘00 – ‘05

    Slide 27“Technology changes, but people stay the same” (Andrew Hovells)

    Slide 28
    Dunbar’s Number (or the 150 rule)
    theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships (in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person)
    My job + friends + family + digital friends = 350ish (and growing)
    How will we manage our increasingly extended digital relationships?

    Slides 29-31
    Taken from the crowdsourced ‘a Presentation About Community, By The Community’ at http://neilperkin.typepad.com/only_dead_fish/2009/02/a-presentation-about-community-by-the-community-.html

    Slide 32
    Next evolution of social networks is for them to have a purpose - social shopping
    ‘Me-tail’ – hybrid between media and retail
    Team buying – buyers group together to haggle on price of various products
    ASOS Life

    Slide 35
    Last 10 years of online retail have enjoyed growth at 37% YoY

    Slide 36
    Cross channel purchasing on increase, with consumers using a variety of channels for a single purchase

    Slide 38
    Pledge music – premium fan packages from independent artists. 'If an artist has 5,000 fans willing to spend £ 40 on them every year, they can have a long career,' says Tina Dico’s manager, Jonathan Morley (Sunday Times, 08/11/09)
    My Innocent Christmas Trees from Innocent drinks – been getting xmas gifts from them for the last 5 years for being an early online evangelist.

    Slide 39
    want it all’ and ‘want it now’. Mail order = see it today, wear it tomorrow.
    Nowism – experiences (not things), online (twitter, google wave), real time search, spending more to save time
    Energy drinks – and relaxing sodas, dancing on ice live, popup retail
    Happy feet on demand
    Rollasoles - £5 shoe vending in nightclubs for sore feet – even get a bag to take your heels home in

    Slide 41
    ‘Questioning people’s moral norms while trying to sell to them will only create a highly sensitive, frustrated and alienated consumer’ (WGSN)
    Hard core vs. middle market who care about issues but stop at letting them limit choices and desires
    Reduced trust in business and corporations
    Easy access to info via web – nowhere to hide
    Encouraging more companies to adopt a more socially positive strategy in order to recover their position

    Slide 45
    Waitrose Community Matters - £1K per store to local communities each month, divided up based on customer votes
    Tom’s Shoes, www.tomsshoes.com – one for one shoes

    Slide 46
    Genuine service – NOT ‘have a nice day’
    Lauren Luke – youtube makeup advice sensation
    Hyatt Random Acts of Generosity – empowering staff to reward customers

    Slide 48
    Using technology to distribute crafts
    Etsy – making it easy for niche players to distribute one off and handcrafted items

    Slide 50
    Howies handmedown jacket (and rucksack)10 year guarantee – but £400
    ’The answer is real simple: to consume less as a consumer; to make a better designed product as a manufacturer’
    More info: http://hmd.howies.co.uk/

    Slide 52
    Burberry street style ‘art of the trench’ celebration

    Slide 54
    Value hugely important at the moment, other factors should resurface as economy picks up.

    Slide 56
    Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producer: - box schemes
    - farmers markets - micro farms

    Slide 60
    See his presentation at http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2006/08/did-you-know.html
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No notes for slide
  • Unfogging the future Finger in the air, inexact Basing predictions on what's happening now
  • The grey shaded area on the graph represents the age profile of the population as it is now and the pink line shows the expected shift in profile by 2013. Going Up: - Baby Boomers, their children and their grandchildren. those aged over 65 Going Down: teenagers 35-44 year olds
  • More ‘family formers’ (+ more working parents) = demand for childcare More single parent households and family formers = more demand for suitable housing (assuming credit available)
  • Still feeling quite young and healthy at retirement + state pension age changes + opposition to mandatory retirement at 65 = longer working lives Increased life expectancy = large number of very elderly people by 2013. Their health, retirement and care needs will contribute to a 7.9% growth in the population of carers – and of working adults caring for elderly relatives.
  • If there was no change in the state pension age, by 2033 we could have on person of state pension age for every 2.2 people of working age (source: ONS) Over 55s = young elderly Relatively wealthy, sophisticated and youthful In our heads we’re all 25 Individuals not a group Pro age not anti age
  • Also don’t forget the ‘ Digitally Disconnected ’ – according to UK Government’s Digital Inclusion Task Force, at present there are at least 10 million adults in the UK who have never been online
  • Multiple screens & chips in every home – average for my co-workers is 10 screens, 9 remotes & 6 ‘computers’ at home (stats thanks to Paul Mallett) In April 08, 47% of web users were simultaneously watching TV and surfing the internet at least once a day (IAB 04/08) Permanently connected web becoming integral part of human life
  • Increasing number of sets per household – note scale hides massive growth in recent years – 8% growth ‘05 – ‘09 vs. 5% ‘00 – ‘05
  • “ Technology changes, but people stay the same” (Andrew Hovells)
  • Dunbar’s Number (or the 150 rule) theoretical cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships (in which an individual knows who each person is, and how each person relates to every other person) My job + friends + family + digital friends = 350ish (and growing) How will we manage our increasingly extended digital relationships?
  • Taken from the crowdsourced ‘a Presentation About Community, By The Community’ at http://neilperkin.typepad.com/only_dead_fish/2009/02/a-presentation-about-community-by-the-community-.html
  • Taken from the crowdsourced ‘a Presentation About Community, By The Community’ at http://neilperkin.typepad.com/only_dead_fish/2009/02/a-presentation-about-community-by-the-community-.html
  • Taken from the crowdsourced ‘a Presentation About Community, By The Community’ at http://neilperkin.typepad.com/only_dead_fish/2009/02/a-presentation-about-community-by-the-community-.html
  • Next evolution of social networks is for them to have a purpose - social shopping ‘ Me-tail’ – hybrid between media and retail Team buying – buyers group together to haggle on price of various products ASOS Life
  • Last 10 years of online retail have enjoyed growth at 37% YoY
  • Cross channel purchasing on increase, with consumers using a variety of channels for a single purchase
  • Pledge music – premium fan packages from independent artists. "If an artist has 5,000 fans willing to spend £ 40 on them every year, they can have a long career," says Tina Dico's manager, Jonathan Morley (Sunday Times, 08/11/09) My Innocent Christmas Trees from Innocent drinks – been getting xmas gifts from them for the last 5 years for being an early online evangelist.
  • ‘ want it all’ and ‘want it now’. Mail order = see it today, wear it tomorrow. Nowism – experiences (not things), online (twitter, google wave), real time search, spending more to save time Energy drinks – and relaxing sodas, dancing on ice live, popup retail Happy feet on demand Rollasoles - £5 shoe vending in nightclubs for sore feet – even get a bag to take your heels home in
  • ‘ Questioning people’s moral norms while trying to sell to them will only create a highly sensitive, frustrated and alienated consumer ’ (WARC) Hard core vs. middle market who care about issues but stop at letting them limit choices and desires Reduced trust in business and corporations Easy access to info via web – nowhere to hide Encouraging more companies to adopt a more socially positive strategy in order to recover their position
  • The Proactive Consumer WANTS to be involved in the retail process Everyone’s a researcher Wants to help by giving feedback and expects to be listened to Demands 3 rd party endorsement of ethical claims by a credible and trusted source
  • Waitrose Community Matters - £1K per store to local communities each month, divided up based on customer votes Tom’s Shoes, www.tomsshoes.com – one for one shoes
  • Genuine service – NOT ‘have a nice day’ Lauren Luke – youtube makeup advice sensation Hyatt Random Acts of Generosity – empowering staff to reward customers
  • Using technology to distribute crafts Etsy – making it easy for niche players to distribute one off and handcrafted items
  • Howies handmedown jacket (and rucksack) 10 year guarantee – but £400 The answer is real simple: to consume less as a consumer; to make a better designed product as a manufacturer More info: http://hmd.howies.co.uk/
  • Burberry street style ‘art of the trench’ celebration
  • Value hugely important at the moment, other factors should resurface as economy picks up.
  • Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producer: - box schemes - farmers markets - micro farms
  • See his presentation at http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2006/08/did-you-know.html
  • 2020 Vision

    1. 1. 2020 Vision or, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future
    2. 3. Futurology: <ul><li>the study and forecasting of the future, with predictions based on the likely outcomes of current trends </li></ul><ul><li>- encarta </li></ul>
    3. 4. images from harry potter lexicon
    4. 5. <ul><li>“ In any forecasting project it’s always good to start by making it clear that most things will be the same. </li></ul><ul><li>Look at any 10 year time-span and most things are mostly the same before and after.” </li></ul><ul><li>- Russell Davies </li></ul>http://russelldavies.typepad.com/planning/account_planning_school_of_the_web/page/3/
    5. 6. a lot can happen in ten years… <ul><li>2000 fair trade bananas in co-op stores </li></ul><ul><li>2001 human genome sequenced </li></ul><ul><li>2003 hybrid cars </li></ul><ul><li>2004 facebook </li></ul><ul><li>2005 youtube </li></ul><ul><li>2007 iphone launched </li></ul>
    6. 7. the big picture
    7. 8. “ There's an important shift towards local. Clever people everywhere see that if it's shipped in on fossil fuel it's likely to not be there in 20 years or so. Maybe 5, who knows. So that's local, barter economy, local currencies and a tectonic shift against the corporation and banks .” - Charles Frith http://www.charlesfrith.com /
    8. 9. “ So its likely that the future is a mix of what we want, what we want to be, what we cant do without, what we can't admit we can't do without and cutting out the stuff where we're reliant on the institutions that provide them. Its slow moving but its undeniable. ” - Charles Frith http://www.charlesfrith.com
    9. 10. demographics
    10. 11. UK population <ul><li>We know that the demographic landscape of the UK will shift considerably over the next 10 years </li></ul><ul><li>The UK population is projected to grown by over 4M by 2018 </li></ul><ul><li>55% natural increase (more births than deaths) </li></ul><ul><li>45% net migration </li></ul>source: ONS
    11. 13. by 2013:
    12. 14. by 2013:
    13. 15. What might this mean? <ul><li>By 2020 a third of us will be living alone (Future Foundation) </li></ul><ul><li>Children living with both biological parents in the same household will be in the minority </li></ul><ul><li>More twenty and thirty somethings living at home </li></ul><ul><li>Home extensions </li></ul><ul><li>Multigenerational living </li></ul><ul><li>Personalised space – bedsits with own technology and relaxation space </li></ul>
    14. 16. images from B&Q People working longer in order to pay for the cost of living Switch to part time Customer service benefits
    15. 17. technology
    16. 18. What’s next? ? 15 years photo by rewindmuseum
    17. 19. Digital Natives <ul><li>“ The generations becoming adults between now and 2020 are the first to grow up with the internet and global communication as a fundamental part of their everyday lives” </li></ul><ul><li>– Rob Mortimer www.ad-pit.com </li></ul>
    18. 20. Digital Natives vs. Digital Immigrants <ul><li>“ There’s a dividing line between those under the age of about 25ish and those above. </li></ul><ul><li>Those above will still respond to traditional ‘above the line’ interruption communications, but the under 25s just don’t consume media that way. They’re used to being in control and doing stuff in a multi platform way” </li></ul><ul><li>- Andrew Hovells, (Northern Planner) http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/ </li></ul>
    19. 21. photo by obliterated on flickr Screens and chips convergence Digital multitasking Solo viewing On demand The Digital Home
    20. 22. photo by wfryer on flickr Together but apart
    21. 23. engaging with friends and family Sacrificing on other forms of entertainment in order to spend on technology 75% increase in technology sales over the last decade Homedulgence source: LSN Global (via Andrew Hovells ), photo by harmoney on flickr
    22. 24. Multiscreen trends found via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com
    23. 25. Intelligence & connectivity turns products into services via Paul Mallett http://paulmallett.wordpress.com
    24. 26. image from dou_ble_you on flickr Trends cross cultural and geographical boundaries increasingly fast People spending more time online Conversing / doing things with people who are geographically remote Global Village
    25. 27. Continuous partial attention Post multitasking Skimming the surface of incoming data, picking out the relevant details, and moving on to the next stream Yearning for silence and/or Wanting to get to the bottom of things
    26. 28. image via playsoft
    27. 29. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
    28. 30. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
    29. 31. slide loaned from presentation at neilperkin.typepad.com
    30. 32. Social shopping / team buying Friend/peer recommendation Buying is a visual, emotive process ‘ me tail’ Monetising? Evolution of social networks
    31. 33. Vigilante consumers <ul><li>The consumer manipulates marketers and the marketplace through pressure, protest and politics: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Twitter vs. Daily Mail re Stephen Gately article results in 22,000 complaints to PCC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Old man vs. tube worker – apology, investigation, worker resigned </li></ul></ul>
    32. 34. consumer/retail trends
    33. 35. <ul><li>Source: Internet retail trends 2010: Ten actions for your business’, Verdict Consulting/Webloyalty </li></ul>Rapid growth in online retailing set to slow in next 5 years Likely to average 11% as market matures
    34. 36. <ul><li>Catalogues not going away </li></ul><ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Shelf life </li></ul><ul><li>convenience </li></ul><ul><li>Browse vs. order </li></ul><ul><li>BUT don’t repeat mail </li></ul>Flick and Click
    35. 37. photo by tobi.com Sustainable mail order <ul><li>Recycled </li></ul><ul><li>Recyclable </li></ul><ul><li>Minimising waste </li></ul><ul><li>Tobi.com – ‘love an ugly box’ </li></ul><ul><li>Lush popcorn </li></ul>
    36. 38. Super loyal Vs Savvy Eroding the middle ground the new brand loyalty
    37. 39. <ul><li>photo from psfk.com </li></ul>Instant gratification
    38. 40. Sustainability <ul><li>Currently buying ‘green’ or ‘ethical’ is a motivator - with the expectation of payback </li></ul><ul><li>But this will eventually become a hygiene factor </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability is shifting to the core of business – e.g. Starbucks goes fair trade </li></ul><ul><li>Mainstream confusion over ethical labelling </li></ul><ul><li>Where do you draw the line? </li></ul><ul><li>Difficult to separate social & environmental benefits </li></ul>
    39. 41. The divided consumer
    40. 43. Anchoring <ul><li>Spiritual anchoring in times of turbulence and change </li></ul><ul><li>Stabilising in a place of peace & trust </li></ul><ul><li>Looking at the larger picture in which circumstances sit </li></ul><ul><li>Reaching back to our spiritual roots </li></ul><ul><li>Reaction to digital lives – desire for pragmatism and peace </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity for products and brands that alleviate anxiety/fears </li></ul>source WGSN , photo by jpc101 on flickr
    41. 44. Simple pleasures <ul><li>Frustrated, slightly worn down consumers, needing cheap release </li></ul><ul><li>Open to good, positive ideas for future </li></ul><ul><li>Me time, family time, quality time </li></ul><ul><li>Enjoying life </li></ul>photo by penmachine on flickr
    42. 45. <ul><li>Asking customers to decide and/or donate </li></ul><ul><li>Assisting customers in smart, generous, relevant ways to make life more convenient </li></ul><ul><li>Perkonomics – perks & privileges to satisfy need for status and/or convenience </li></ul><ul><li>Tryvertising – end users, not influencers, product sampling & experiential </li></ul>Generosity source trendwatching.com , photos by jennmae on flickr and Waitrose
    43. 46. Common sense and good service Using technology to understand our quirks Technology can create distance (e.g. email) Online practical guides Personalised search Value vs. cost Genuine service Empowering employees Bringing a sense of worth to item
    44. 47. fashion
    45. 48. Democratisation of luxury <ul><li>but disappearing middle ground </li></ul>discount luxury
    46. 49. Democratisation of luxury <ul><li>According to the Future Foundation, 63% of us would rather buy one beautifully made item than lots of cheaper items </li></ul>natural make & do functional sustainable recycled simple creative imaginative
    47. 50. New luxury = high end, quality, durable, improving over time images from Howies and RussellDavies Fickleness going out of fashion
    48. 51. <ul><li>Buy less, wear more </li></ul><ul><li>Capsule wardrobes </li></ul><ul><li>Selective shopping </li></ul><ul><li>Key pieces </li></ul><ul><li>Updating and embellishing </li></ul><ul><li>Quality over bargains </li></ul><ul><li>Provenance? </li></ul><ul><li>Textile waste? </li></ul>Buying less but better
    49. 52. I am my own fashion editor Storytelling 40% of all products sold online by 2020 (WGSN)
    50. 53. food
    51. 54. Key food trends Health(ier) Convenience Indulgent Provenance Value
    52. 55. photos by dominiccampbell and rossendalewadey on flickr Political consumerism Meaningful consumption – provenance, home baking Buying from people, not companies Word of Mouth, grassroots Shopping for change
    53. 56. Provenance growing in new (old) directions Food miles vs. fair trade Growing/foraging own food Cutting out the middleman / closer to the producer Quick (technology) as well as slow (old skills) cooking images by sandyaustin on flickr and shropshires.com
    54. 57. Connecting the kitchen with the garden <ul><li>Compost goes into garden </li></ul><ul><li>Produce from garden/allotment comes into kitchen </li></ul><ul><li>44% of settled suburban dwellers grow or plan to grow their own vegetables (future foundation) </li></ul><ul><li>Rooftop gardens and shared courtyards in urban areas </li></ul><ul><li>Gardens as outdoor rooms </li></ul>photo by folkbird on flickr
    55. 58. society
    56. 59. New ways of working <ul><li>Expectations raised </li></ul><ul><li>Collaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Learning – digital natives and digital immigrants </li></ul><ul><li>Flexibility - 12M of us potentially working from home by 2012 at least once a week (LSN global) </li></ul><ul><li>Respect for the individual </li></ul><ul><li>Network IS the workplace </li></ul>
    57. 60. <ul><li>&quot;We are preparing students for jobs that don't yet exist, using technology that has not yet been invented, in order to solve problems that we don't even know are problems.“ </li></ul><ul><li>- Karl Fisch </li></ul>
    58. 61. Community volunteers <ul><li>Predicted resurgence </li></ul><ul><li>More active retired </li></ul><ul><li>London 2012 volunteer programme – encourages local volunteering before and after event </li></ul>photo by scottishgovernment on flickr
    59. 62. so, what does this all mean? <ul><li>More young and old elderly </li></ul><ul><li>Shifts in household size – smaller and larger </li></ul><ul><li>Super loyal and savvy shoppers </li></ul><ul><li>Need to cater for digital natives and digital immigrants </li></ul><ul><li>Social is becoming part of all media streams </li></ul><ul><ul><li>allows groups with shared purposes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Cross channel purchasing </li></ul>
    60. 63. so, what does this all mean? <ul><li>The new luxury: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beautifully made </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hand crafted </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long lasting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High quality </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Connecting with the producer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sustainability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shifting to the core of business, but becoming hygiene factor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More ethical evangelists </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Everyone ‘doing their bit’ (but don’t question them) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Loyalists want to get involved, reward with Perkonomics </li></ul></ul>
    61. 64. Finally - look out for the wildcard ! <ul><li>is the world is cooling, not warming? </li></ul><ul><li>What if the internet was disabled? </li></ul><ul><li>Could mankind invent a new energy source comparable to oil? </li></ul>
    62. 65. Many thanks to the following for their contributions: <ul><li>Andrew http://joymachine.typepad.com/northern_planner/ </li></ul><ul><li>Rob www.ad-pit.com </li></ul><ul><li>Charles www.charlesfrith.com </li></ul><ul><li>Neil http://www.neilperkin.typepad.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>Paul http://paulmallett.wordpress.com/ </li></ul><ul><li>Creative Commons applies to all linked photos, other images and this document as a whole </li></ul>all data as at November 2009 written / collated by Gemma Teed @ Brahm
    63. 66. photo by travelinlibrarian on flickr

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