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EUR/USD
Daily Outlook
Technical Outlook
A huge almost one year long head and shoulders patter is forming. After Friday NFP data we tested neckline.
Reaction to this test remained some weak but we are still above neckline. CCI is in sell zone.
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Esoteric Outlook
To solve the longer term outlook I'd rather to look at Jupiter - Saturn Cycle. Of course the Heliocentric one. This
great cycle shows lowering prices until the beginning of 2014. Another interesting cycle that works fins recently
are Heliocentric Earth - Venus Cycle. This cycle worked well on recent several cycles, so it is worth to take into
account this cycle. Yes, on early August this cycle foresee a fast drop and a reversal sharply to up on the first
part of the August. But we must first to consider more near future. Second graph above illustrates current cycles
are in action. Uranus - Pluto Square moved price down and Saturn - Neptune Trine moved it back up. Later Solar
aspects with previous two aspects actors turned back the trend to bearish bias. Saturn - Neptune Trine once
again turned into waxing phase and soon Jupiter will join them to form a Grand Trine. We must expect again a
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bullish bias along with this aspect? It is a question market. For sure it will bring an optimistic atmosphere.
However it is not easy to predict the effects of physiology to the market. In my opinion this optimism recognized
by public as the end of crisis environment and this can trigger to the removal of QE policies. But we will live and
see. We have two more weeks ahead to culminate that aspect. On third chart above I showed price-time
balanced points along with Moon cycle turning points. Next potential turning point looks in the same week with
the Grand Trine I mentioned above.
Hourly Outlook
Technical Outlook
Above picture shows current development of the market. Elliott Wise look to market tells us that current
development is tend to continue. Bearish movement after NFP announcement probably completed the Wave 3
of Wave C of big ABC correction triggered by Bernanke announcement on June 19. So we should expect one
more down move which is like to encounter with a selling climax and trigger a correction around 1.3040 levels.
After June 27, price development had two deep correction which means we can expect a shallow correction on
Wave 4 of Wave C if alternation rule works. CCI Divergence came out so we can consider ourselves around the
last part of the bearish movement before a correction up. On the news I started to hear that Dollar gained too
much and there can be some measures against this gaining.
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Esoteric Outlook
When we look time-price relationship, we see that price started to go faster than time after ECB and NFP news
releases. So we should expect some slow down on the trend to find balance. (Second graph above) When we
look at the Lunar Cycle (First graph) we saw that Moon was (even now) in an air sign (Gemini). It means trend
should change (probably temporarily) until Moon visit a fire sign (this time Leo - July 11).
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5 Minute Outlook
Technical Outlook
Current development is clearly corrective structure.
Esoteric Outlook
Above graph I showed possible times of intraday trend changes.
CONCLUSION
It looks that Euro bearish environment will continue at least until July 21 and most probably until early August.
For upcoming week we can see a reaction to last two days fast bearish movements until late hours of July 11. I
expect that this reaction will be weak. I have doubts that we can move above 1.2900 resistance level.
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Erhan EKER
July 06, 2013
https://twitter.com/EEKER79
Ps: I did not have time to read and control what I wrote above.. Sorry for typos, bad grammar and bad English :)