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Maritime Navigational Risk Analysis ofShipping North Slope Liquefied Natural Gas              Safeguard Marine LLC    Prep...
Sea Bulk Pride Feb. 3, 2006•
Purpose• Identify and analyze the risk mitigation factors  associated with LLNG tankers• Compare and contrast maritime ris...
Overview• Comparing contributing factors for shipping  LNG in LLNG ships for Nikiski and Valdez:  – Weather patterns  – Ti...
Liquefied Natural Gas Shipping in                Alaska• Alaskan natural gas has been shipped since  1969 using shuttle ta...
Valdez•   Most Northern ice free port in North America•   Tides and Currents are minimal•   Deep water port with no draft ...
Valdez• Coast Guard established scenario for tank ship  transits• SERVS used to escort tankers is not being fully  utilize...
Nikiski• Nikiski docks do not appear to have shoaling  problems, no maintenance dredging occurs• Large tides and currents ...
Nikiski• Ice is a navigational occurrence most winters• Temperatures can be extremely cold• Ice has impact on shipping pro...
Anchorage• Port of Anchorage transit involves navigating  shoal area that requires more dredging• Ice navigation can be mo...
Discussion• LNG tankers safely calling Nikiski for over 40 years• Tankers of shuttle size and specifically made for  the t...
Discussion• North Slope gas export volume will dictate the  use of LLNG ships• These ships will require significant  infra...
CONCLUSION• Valdez Port of Preference for export of North  Slope Gas from Alaska using LLNG tankers• Northern most ice fre...
Previous Analysis Concluded Valdezpresented relative less risk than Cook Inlet• New research includes survey of 19 Alaska ...
Interview of State Pilots• All active Southwest Alaska State Pilots with  over 5 years experience as state pilots• Intervi...
Water Depth Cook Inlet                   10 feet UKC                   Actual UKC             Boulder MovementQuestions   ...
Tug Assist Cook Inlet                           Tug Assist Cook Inlet                    Tug Assist During Ice SeasonQuest...
Tides, Currents, and Ice Cook Inlet             Nikiski tides and currents greater risk            Force of Ice Proportion...
Moored LLNG in Cook Inlet                          High Risk During Severe Ice            Risk Mitigation Possible During ...
Anchoring of LLNG Ships                   Kachemak Bay Suitable AnhcorageQuestions            Local Communities Negative P...
Maneuvering of Ships Using Anchor            Anchor Used Control Pivot Reduce Speed                             Use Anchor...
SERVS and Coast Guard            Expansion of SERVS in Valdez for LLNG            SERVS and Coast Guard Provide Adequate  ...
LLNG Terminal Locations            Cook Inlet Should Not Be Considered for                        LLNG Terminal           ...
Narrative Cook Inlet• Northern Cook Inlet Terminal: 18 “NO”, 1 “No  comment”• Nikiski: 13 “NO”, 3 conditionally yes, 1 yes...
Narrative Valdez• All 19 were positive/ Yes• “Excellent location, deep water, ice free”• “Where it belongs, Only sensible ...
Mitigating Navigational Risk• Mitigation of maritime risk starts with location• Every day decisions made by these mariners...
Valdez is Safer than Nikiski•   Interview of the boots on the ground•   Valdez is the superior location•   Our obligation ...
Thank youSafe Guard Marine LLCCaptain Jeff Pierce, jeffpierce78@hotmail.comJonathan J. Pierce PhD Jonathan.pierce@ucdenver...
2012 09-27 interview final pp valdez lng summit-2
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2012 09-27 interview final pp valdez lng summit-2

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Transcript of "2012 09-27 interview final pp valdez lng summit-2"

  1. 1. Maritime Navigational Risk Analysis ofShipping North Slope Liquefied Natural Gas Safeguard Marine LLC Prepared for Alaska Gasline Port Authority Presented at the Alaska LNG Summit, 2012
  2. 2. Sea Bulk Pride Feb. 3, 2006•
  3. 3. Purpose• Identify and analyze the risk mitigation factors associated with LLNG tankers• Compare and contrast maritime risk limitations of navigating LLNG tankers in Cook Inlet and Valdez, Alaska
  4. 4. Overview• Comparing contributing factors for shipping LNG in LLNG ships for Nikiski and Valdez: – Weather patterns – Tides and Currents – Ice navigation – Geographical obstructions – Depths of water – Present infrastructure available
  5. 5. Liquefied Natural Gas Shipping in Alaska• Alaskan natural gas has been shipped since 1969 using shuttle tankers from Nikiski• Shipping large volumes will require larger ships creating need for large LNG tankers• Development of natural gas resources will drive future of Alaskan economy• Developing these resources requires shipping of natural gas either through Cook Inlet or Prince William Sound
  6. 6. Valdez• Most Northern ice free port in North America• Tides and Currents are minimal• Deep water port with no draft restraints• Approaches to Port are all deep water• Valdez Narrows navigation consideration• Moderate temperatures winter• Winds can be significant for periods of time• Security for tank ships already in place
  7. 7. Valdez• Coast Guard established scenario for tank ship transits• SERVS used to escort tankers is not being fully utilized as TAPS output declines• Cost of oil tanker escorts shared with LLNG, may reduce transportation cost for TAPS• Tug assist infrastructure in place for large tank ships• VLCC size tankers have frequented this port
  8. 8. Nikiski• Nikiski docks do not appear to have shoaling problems, no maintenance dredging occurs• Large tides and currents normal occurrence• Depth of water for transit dependent on tides to cross shoal area with tankers• Current dictates when ship traffic can occur• Minimal Coast Guard presence• Operational port area for over 40 years• Vessels frequenting port shuttle size
  9. 9. Nikiski• Ice is a navigational occurrence most winters• Temperatures can be extremely cold• Ice has impact on shipping protocol• USCG implements special rules for shipping during winter months due to ice floes• Safely mooring of ships during ice is critical• Number of tug assist availability is minimal• Tug assist in current and ice reduces effectiveness
  10. 10. Anchorage• Port of Anchorage transit involves navigating shoal area that requires more dredging• Ice navigation can be more difficult than Nikiski due to the volume and size of ice• Ice season is typically longer than Nikiski• Anchorage tides and currents are extreme
  11. 11. Discussion• LNG tankers safely calling Nikiski for over 40 years• Tankers of shuttle size and specifically made for the terminal and port• Exporting North Slope gas will require larger ships due to the volume of gas• Year round operations with LLNG size ships at the Nikiski docks may cause undue risk• Enough risk mitigation factors may not be available to facilitate a safe mooring
  12. 12. Discussion• North Slope gas export volume will dictate the use of LLNG ships• These ships will require significant infrastructure capability• Valdez presently has that capacity in place• Shuttle tankers have moved crude oil from Valdez to Nikiski refinery supplying the rail belt with refined products
  13. 13. CONCLUSION• Valdez Port of Preference for export of North Slope Gas from Alaska using LLNG tankers• Northern most ice free port, already possesses required infrastructure• LNG terminal in Valdez could be utilized to move LNG to any location at tide water• Cook Inlet or Southeast or Western Alaska could be alternative receiving ports for North Slope gas
  14. 14. Previous Analysis Concluded Valdezpresented relative less risk than Cook Inlet• New research includes survey of 19 Alaska state pilots working in Southwest Alaska• Major finding of the survey is that Cook Inlet poses greater risk to maritime navigation than Valdez for placement of LNG terminal
  15. 15. Interview of State Pilots• All active Southwest Alaska State Pilots with over 5 years experience as state pilots• Interviews of 19 Marine State Pilots total• Combined Years Piloting Experience: 442 years• All worked Valdez TAPS and Cook Inlet• 41 Questions
  16. 16. Water Depth Cook Inlet 10 feet UKC Actual UKC Boulder MovementQuestions Shoal Changes Other Shoal Changes Dredging Shoals Winter Dredging 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  17. 17. Tug Assist Cook Inlet Tug Assist Cook Inlet Tug Assist During Ice SeasonQuestions Tug Assist Risk Mitigation Conditions prevent Tug Assist Nikiski 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  18. 18. Tides, Currents, and Ice Cook Inlet Nikiski tides and currents greater risk Force of Ice Proportionate to Ship sizeQuestions Larger Ships greater effect by Ice Mitigation Force of Ice Changing Ice Rules 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  19. 19. Moored LLNG in Cook Inlet High Risk During Severe Ice Risk Mitigation Possible During Heavy IceQuestions Use Engine to Counter Ice Effect Use Engine to Prevent Ship Break Away Use Engine LLNG Counter Ice Effect Not Using Engine Effect Safety 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  20. 20. Anchoring of LLNG Ships Kachemak Bay Suitable AnhcorageQuestions Local Communities Negative Perception of LLNG Anchoring Knowles Head Suitable Anhcorage 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  21. 21. Maneuvering of Ships Using Anchor Anchor Used Control Pivot Reduce Speed Use Anchor at NikiskiQuestions Prefer Tug Assist to Anchor Tug Assist Year-Round Possible 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  22. 22. SERVS and Coast Guard Expansion of SERVS in Valdez for LLNG SERVS and Coast Guard Provide Adequate Risk MitigationQuestions Would LLNG Terminal Cook Inlet need SERVS and Coast Guard Increased Traffic in Cook Inlet Require Traffic Lanes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  23. 23. LLNG Terminal Locations Cook Inlet Should Not Be Considered for LLNG Terminal LLNG Terminal North of Forelands CookQuestions Inlet Poses Risk LLNG Terminal Nikiski Poses Risk LLNG Terminal Valdez Poses Risk 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Pilots Answering Affirmative
  24. 24. Narrative Cook Inlet• Northern Cook Inlet Terminal: 18 “NO”, 1 “No comment”• Nikiski: 13 “NO”, 3 conditionally yes, 1 yes• Risk can’t be mitigated with money• Mother nature can’t be mitigated• Risk posed is “Absolutely not [acceptable]”• “Don’t fly in the face of mother nature”
  25. 25. Narrative Valdez• All 19 were positive/ Yes• “Excellent location, deep water, ice free”• “Where it belongs, Only sensible location”• “Only Valdez is an option for ships this size”
  26. 26. Mitigating Navigational Risk• Mitigation of maritime risk starts with location• Every day decisions made by these mariners• Tool Box and the Tools to work with when creating a successful outcome• Art of ship handling/ not a science
  27. 27. Valdez is Safer than Nikiski• Interview of the boots on the ground• Valdez is the superior location• Our obligation to the state as licensed pilots• Nikiski is proven port for shuttle size ships• Valdez is proven port for VLCC size ships
  28. 28. Thank youSafe Guard Marine LLCCaptain Jeff Pierce, jeffpierce78@hotmail.comJonathan J. Pierce PhD Jonathan.pierce@ucdenver.edu
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