Music Like Water: why,
what, when and how?
‣ Futurist
‣ Strategist
‣ Author & Blogger
www.mediafuturist.com
twitter.com/gleonhard
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What I do:
‣ Understand
Clients such as IBM, Google,
Nokia, DDB, Deutsche Telekom,
‣ Develop Ideas Sony BMG, Orange / France
Telecom, BBC, ITV, RTL, The
‣ Catalyze Change European Commission, TribalDDB,
Omnicom, Siemens, Telkom
www.mediafuturist.com Indonesia, BOL...
twitter.com/gleonhard
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A big “Thank You” to everyone in my Network
Most of what I ‘know’ you have given to me.
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Listening, Reading & Watching = Copying
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The value of Music is no longer (just) in the Copy
Selling ‘units’ is yesterday’s
concern - and so is the
definition of a ‘Sale’
Trying to maintain total
control of distribution is
pointless
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The value of Music is no longer (just) in the Copy
Selling ‘units’ is yesterday’s
concern - and so is the
definition of a ‘Sale’
Trying to maintain total
control of distribution is
pointless
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The World’s OS is Morphing
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The new OS
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Sharing? You ain’t seen nothing yet...
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The global switch from Closed to Open
Media & Content
Telecommunication
Energy Business Education
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Yet, in Music we are approaching total
Copyright Gridlock
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This is a very bad idea
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Because...
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http://mahasiah.wordpress.com/
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What does this remind you of?
“France's Ministry of Culture estimates that 1,000 people a day could be cut off from
the internet under the bill. After first being sent a warning email and then a formal
letter by Hadopi, those accused of illegal file- sharing for a third time could be
disconnected for up to a year and face a €300,000 fine and jail time. Even those found
guilty of "negligence" for allowing others (such as their children) to pirate online
material risk a month-long internet suspension and a €1,500 fine..."
Source: The Guardian Sept 10 09
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The Music Economy is Broken
The System is certified dysfunctional
Source: Techdirt
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Let’s not confuse things
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Why this can’t possibly work
200 Million users seems entirely realistic
20 songs per day =
4 Billion plays per day @ 1 Cent USD
$40 Million PER DAY in license fees for the masters
14.6 BILLION USD per year in licensing costs
Plus: costs for Public Performance in 50+ countries
Plus: payments to composers
Plus: technical costs = 50% of Google’s yearly $$
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And this is not a unique problem
A market-driven solution is very unlikely
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But it gets worse
Private deals for public services?
What choice did they have?
How much control does this leave them?
Is this ‘fair business practice’?
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A market-driven solution is very unlikely
"In parallel, the two companies will be working together to protect Universal
Music's intellectual property and drive a material reduction in the
unauthorised distribution of its repertoire across Virgin Media's network,"
said a statement.
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“A new Social Contract”
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What would this look like?
First, legalize it - give permission
All use - all pay * or otherwise generate $ value
Many kinds of payments emerge
Rights are public, open and standardized
Licenses are available to every business
Data-Mining and Market Access is $ value, too
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Public License
+ Build-in Revenues
+ Proportional Distribution
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Where will that Euro / Week come from?
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With a new
Internet
Music
License we
don’t just sell
something -
we also buy
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Many other New Generatives
Community Premium Services Permission
High Definition & Premium Media
Mobile Device Applications & Software
Live-Concerts, Web-Casts, Virtual Shows...
Flat Rates, Bundles, Revenue-Sharing
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We don’t pay to eat all the food... we pay for access
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If we had a public music license, this
would already be money in the bank!
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So why is there still so little
revenue from Youtube,
Myspace, Facebook...?
• Advertisers are always 2-3 years behind
• Lack of permission for legal content has
resulted in much slower adoption
• Lack of public license has deterred new
investors
• Mobile broadband and smart mobile
devices are just now starting to take off
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REVENUE
Expect radical habit changes when
the technology actually works
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And this would become a huge business, too
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With a public music license, the Longtail &
Success in the Niches becomes very real, too
Image: Flickr.com/WhiskersandWhispers
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Summary: my proposal *since 1999
• Legalize it: a public, collective, open
License for the use of Music online
• Collaborative efforts to develop new,
web-native revenue streams
• A new social contract for Content
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Thanks for listening!
• email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
• twitter.com/gleonhard
• facebook: gleonhard
• more presentations at
www.mediafuturist.com
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