Developing Comprehensive National Statistics

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Al-Khouri, A.M. (2013) "Exploring the Role of Modern Identity Management Infrastructure in Developing a Comprehensive National Statistics," Abu Dhabi Statistics Conference 2013, Abu Dhabi Statistics Conference 2013, 12-13 May 2013, Ritz Carlton, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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Developing Comprehensive National Statistics

  1. 1. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedPartners in Building UAEs Security & EconomyOur Vision: To be a role model and reference point in proofing individual identity and build wealth informaticsthat guarantees innovative and sophisticated services for the benefit of UAE‫اتحــــــــــــادية‬ ‫هيئــــــــة‬|Federal AuthorityNational StatisticsPresented by Dr. Ali M. Al-KhouriIn: Abu Dhabi Statistics Conference 201312-13 May 2013 | Ritz Carlton | Abu Dhabi | UAEExploring the Role of ModernIdentity Management Infrastructurein Developing a Comprehensive
  2. 2. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda
  3. 3. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition
  4. 4. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedStatistics: a classical definition…A mathematical subject dealing with“the collection, tabulation, analysis, interpretationor explanation, and presentation of data”.….
  5. 5. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• A science in the realm ofmathematics.• Deal with massive data,collate into meaningfulinformation• Historical evidence• Confident predicationwith a degree ofcertainty.Statistics: is a science ..
  6. 6. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• explosive growth in the amount of data created inthe world, both structured and unstructured.• It continues to accelerate and surprise us in terms ofsheer volume.Social mediais producing atremendousamount ofnew data.Information Age
  7. 7. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedClimate Changeevery day, we create2.5 quintillion bytes of data ..(2,500,000,000,000,000,000)90% of the data in the worldtoday has been created in the last twoyears.IBM ReportWe are truly in adigital explosion era!The Age of Big Data ?
  8. 8. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Barrage of datastreamed at us!• Showering us withmassive rain of data?• Question: how can wecreate a meaningful context?• Can we filter this stream into somethingmore structured so that we can makesense of what we have and thus presentit in a manner that is useful?The Complexity of Context ..
  9. 9. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda• Statistics Scope and Boundaries
  10. 10. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedStatistics helps us in structuring the data into matricesand truly brings us closer to a deeper understandingthat is hidden in the numbers associated with the data.enhanceunderstanding& constituteknowledge(meaningfulinformation).Statistics Value
  11. 11. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Boundary orconstraints underwhich a StatisticalAnalysis is reportedScope of Statistics
  12. 12. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedPopulation in statistical termsis the key subject of interest,specifically in demographicanalysis.The People Dimension
  13. 13. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedDescribes thecharacteristics of aproduct or processusing informationcollected on it.Hypothesis formationstage where“statistical thinking”plays a major role.Draw conclusions onunknown processparameters basedon information.Uses probability,leading to either aconfirmation orrejection of thehypothesis.Statistics spans over several distinct phasesScope of Statistics
  14. 14. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedAnalytical with Validation of the Population“Scale Up” or the Extrapolation Analysis.Scope of Statistics
  15. 15. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedHere comes theimportance of theData and DataCollection. Depending on the size of the population, statisticians woulddraw a sample from the population for the required analysis.Importance of Data (Collection)
  16. 16. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda• Data and the Element of Uncertainty
  17. 17. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved 18Data as the lowest level of abstractionData in statistics is an abstraction of thepopulation and has three levels- raw.Knowledge at the highest level.Information at the next levelInformationData in Statistics
  18. 18. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved 19Data abstraction depends on thescheme of Data Collection ..InformationData in Statistics
  19. 19. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved 20InformationData in Statistics
  20. 20. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Statistics by definitionis an approximation.• It is an estimate• It is based on probability• Utilizes distribution analysis• Since we use hypothesisand sampling, there arealways variables thatdepend on assumptionsUncertainty in Statistics
  21. 21. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda• Modern Identity Management Systems
  22. 22. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Many governmentlaunched modernidentity managementinfrastructure.• Use of advancedidentification andauthenticationtechnologies.Modern Identity Management Systems
  23. 23. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedBi-Annual IMAGE Users Group Forum | Paris, France 15-18 April 2013‫اهلوية‬ ‫بطاقة‬
  24. 24. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedModern Identity Management SystemsFormation &DevelopmentEnrolmentJune 2005 Dec 201299%2000-2005EnrolledPopulation
  25. 25. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedGovernment CollaborationKeeping Population Register up to dateSupport Decision MakingIntegration Platform
  26. 26. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedIntegration Platform Architecutre
  27. 27. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedExamples of Statistical Analysisy
  28. 28. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved(Un)Certainty in StatisticsThe base of statisticalanalysis:• Confidence Interval:provides themeasure of certainty• Probability:provides themeasure of uncertainty
  29. 29. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedStatistical Analysis of Population• Function of considered variables andrelationships.• Bound by the Confidence Interval (CI) andthe Probability (P) of the occurrence of anevent in the population.Statistical Analysis =f{ Variables, Binomial relations, CI, P}
  30. 30. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedStatistical Analysis of Population• There is a limit to how true is the analysis• This limit is defined by the Probability and theConfidence Interval.• Probability could be 100% (1) but the truelimit is the Confidence Interval (CI).Statistical Analysis =f{ Variables, Binomial relations, CI, P}limit P-->1 f(Statistical Analysis)= CI
  31. 31. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedCI and P: Accuracy vs Precision of Statistical Analysishigh CI wouldprovide ananalysis withhigher precision.i.e.,(reproducibility)of a givenmeasurement
  32. 32. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedhigherprobabilitywould providean analysis withhigher accuracyi.e., deviationfrom theaccepted valueCI and P: Accuracy vs Precision of Statistical Analysis
  33. 33. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedcombinationof CI and Pdetermine thevalue of aStatistical Analysis.CI and P: Accuracy vs Precision of Statistical Analysis
  34. 34. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedStatistical Analysis = f{ Variables, Binomial relations, CI, P},limit P-->1 f(Statistical Analysis)= CIAs CI ,,,,,, f(SA)since limit P1 f(Statistical Analysis) CICorollary of the aboveRole of Modern Identity Management Systemspushing the CI higher
  35. 35. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Increase theConfidence Interval• Improve the Probability• Enhance the Analysis• Reduce Uncertainty• Reinforce Predictability• Exalted Data Collectionfrom qualified data.Role ofModernIdentityManagementInfrastructureRole of Modern Identity Management Systems
  36. 36. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedQuality of Data in Statistics
  37. 37. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Introduction: Statistics .. A Definition• Statistics Scope and Boundaries• Data and the Element of Uncertainty• Modern Identity Management Systems• Concluding RemarksAgenda• Concluding Remarks
  38. 38. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Statistics need to be viewed as a criticalapproach to building Knowledge and supportingsocial, environmental, and economicaldevelopment.• It should also be viewed in aframework of 3E’s: Efficiency,effectiveness, and efficacy.Concluding Remarks
  39. 39. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• National statistics should be evaluated based on howeffective, efficient, and efficacious they are, in termsof how well they support and strengthen nationalcapacities in different fields.Concluding Remarksspeed & accuracy ofgovernment decisionsability toforecastcut costssave energyImproving public servicesoptimise infrastructureenhance citizensquality of lifereduce environmentalfootprintsfuel innovationdevelopment of diversesustainable economic growth
  40. 40. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedConcluding Remarks$300 billionpotential annual value to UShealthcare.
  41. 41. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• Many national statistical systems are not able toeffectively meet data demand.• Constraints include: inadequate institutional & humancapacities, infrastructure, funding, etc.Challenges …
  42. 42. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedShortage of SkillsBy 2018,United States will faceshortage of around2 millionmanagers and analystswith know-how tocreate and use data tomake effective decisions.
  43. 43. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reserved• International pressure to form higher qualitygovernment statistical information.Data Quality Challenges
  44. 44. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedChange ..• Current strategies and approaches arelikely to change.• Governments will be forced to re-examinetheir traditional systems and consider newways and approaches to statisticalanalysis, and use of Big Data.
  45. 45. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedRead our recent research from:http://www.emiratesid.gov.ae/ar/media-center/publications.aspxMore Information:
  46. 46. www.emiratesid.ae © 2013 Emirates Identity Authority. All rights reservedThank YouDr. Ail M. Al-KhouriDirector GeneralEmirates Identity AuthorityUnited Arab Emiratesali.alkhouri@emiratesid.aewww.emiratesid.ae“Data is a new class ofeconomic asset,like currency and gold.”World Economic Forum 2012

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