Cross boundary flood risk
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Cross boundary flood risk

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  • 1. Transboundary flood risk managementThe Rhine basinNijmegen20 september 2012Aline te Linde
  • 2. TitelCV Aline te Linde1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam MSc hydrology2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics Integrated Water Management2008 – 2012 Deltares Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam PhD - 20112012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers Advisory group Water© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 2
  • 3. Titel http://www.ubvu.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 3
  • 4. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 4
  • 5. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 5
  • 6. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 6
  • 7. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 7
  • 8. TitelRiver manager has four questions1. How often does this happen?2. What is the expected damage?3. Does this change in the future?4. Which measures can I take?Flood risk = probabiliy x damageScenarios– Climate change– Socio-economic / land use© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 8
  • 9. TitelTitelText Rhine River basin length: 1320 km surface area: 185.000 km2 shipping > 200 t/year 7 countries 58 million inhabitants 11 million in flood prone areas© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 9
  • 10. TitelDesign discharge Lobith© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 10 19 september 2012
  • 11. TitelLand use Water depth Potential damageText© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 11
  • 12. TitelTitelText Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 12
  • 13. TitelTitelText Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 13
  • 14. TitelTitelText Increase flood risk entire River basin: 54 – 230% in 2030 (reference = 2000)© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 14
  • 15. TitelTransboundary floods© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 15
  • 16. Titel1926 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 16
  • 17. TitelTransboundary low flowsNL = most downstream countryAlpine water towersLow flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 17
  • 18. TitelTransboundary policyEU legislation for all countries– EU Water Framework Directive (2000) commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015– EU Floods Directive (2007) “Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”Transboundary cooperation obviously relevant for downstream countries , however© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 18
  • 19. TitelThe Dutch Delta Programme“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future) is to protect our country against high water and keep our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/Quite revolutionary:– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster– Long-term planning© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 19
  • 20. TitelDelta Programme– 3 Generic Programmes • Safety • Fresh water • New urban developments and restructuring– 6 Area-based sub-programmes– Delta Commissioner and small staff– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015– Delta Law– Delta Fund– 2050 en 2100 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 20
  • 21. TitelScope is national– Models of Rhine, Meuse and smaller rivers start at the Dutch border – Water safety – Low flow / drought analysis– Possibility of cross-boundary flooding not taken into accountExcept:– Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime (Rhine and Meuse models do include whole basin)– Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 21
  • 22. TitelFinal remarksRiver management DP rather conservative approach, not transboundaryVery strong believe in exact design discharge at the border, while in fact this is very uncertain: 1. High safety norm – extreme value statistics 2. Impact of climate change – scenarios / bandwidth 3. Potential of cross-boundary floodingWhy a national scope of the Delta Programme and Delta law?Does this result in optimal measures?How does this link to transboundary European legislation?© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 22
  • 23. TitelAline te Lindealn@tg.nlwww.twynstragudde.nlwww.deltares.nlwww.ivm.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 23