Transboundary flood risk managementThe Rhine basinNijmegen20 september 2012Aline te Linde
TitelCV Aline te Linde1995 – 2001                  Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam                             MSc...
Titel                                        http://www.ubvu.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012                   ...
Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   4
Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   5
Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   6
Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   7
TitelRiver manager has four questions1. How often does this happen?2. What is the expected damage?3. Does this change in t...
TitelTitelText               Rhine                             River basin    length: 1320 km                      surface...
TitelDesign discharge Lobith© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012                       10                                ...
TitelLand use                                Water depth   Potential damageText© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012      ...
TitelTitelText                                        Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012    ...
TitelTitelText                                        Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012    ...
TitelTitelText                                        Increase flood risk entire                                          ...
TitelTransboundary floods© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   15
Titel1926 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   16
TitelTransboundary low flowsNL = most downstream countryAlpine water towersLow flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Al...
TitelTransboundary policyEU legislation for all countries– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)        commits European Uni...
TitelThe Dutch Delta Programme“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future)   is to protect our ...
TitelDelta Programme– 3 Generic Programmes     •     Safety     •     Fresh water     •     New urban developments and    ...
TitelScope is national– Models of Rhine, Meuse and smaller rivers start at the Dutch  border          –    Water safety   ...
TitelFinal remarksRiver management DP rather conservative approach, not   transboundaryVery strong believe in exact design...
TitelAline te Lindealn@tg.nlwww.twynstragudde.nlwww.deltares.nlwww.ivm.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012   23
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Cross boundary flood risk

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Cross boundary flood risk

  1. 1. Transboundary flood risk managementThe Rhine basinNijmegen20 september 2012Aline te Linde
  2. 2. TitelCV Aline te Linde1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam MSc hydrology2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics Integrated Water Management2008 – 2012 Deltares Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam PhD - 20112012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers Advisory group Water© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 2
  3. 3. Titel http://www.ubvu.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 3
  4. 4. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 4
  5. 5. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 5
  6. 6. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 6
  7. 7. Titel© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 7
  8. 8. TitelRiver manager has four questions1. How often does this happen?2. What is the expected damage?3. Does this change in the future?4. Which measures can I take?Flood risk = probabiliy x damageScenarios– Climate change– Socio-economic / land use© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 8
  9. 9. TitelTitelText Rhine River basin length: 1320 km surface area: 185.000 km2 shipping > 200 t/year 7 countries 58 million inhabitants 11 million in flood prone areas© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 9
  10. 10. TitelDesign discharge Lobith© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 10 19 september 2012
  11. 11. TitelLand use Water depth Potential damageText© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 11
  12. 12. TitelTitelText Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 12
  13. 13. TitelTitelText Risk = probability x damage© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 13
  14. 14. TitelTitelText Increase flood risk entire River basin: 54 – 230% in 2030 (reference = 2000)© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 14
  15. 15. TitelTransboundary floods© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 15
  16. 16. Titel1926 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 16
  17. 17. TitelTransboundary low flowsNL = most downstream countryAlpine water towersLow flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 17
  18. 18. TitelTransboundary policyEU legislation for all countries– EU Water Framework Directive (2000) commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015– EU Floods Directive (2007) “Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”Transboundary cooperation obviously relevant for downstream countries , however© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 18
  19. 19. TitelThe Dutch Delta Programme“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future) is to protect our country against high water and keep our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/Quite revolutionary:– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster– Long-term planning© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 19
  20. 20. TitelDelta Programme– 3 Generic Programmes • Safety • Fresh water • New urban developments and restructuring– 6 Area-based sub-programmes– Delta Commissioner and small staff– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015– Delta Law– Delta Fund– 2050 en 2100 © Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 20
  21. 21. TitelScope is national– Models of Rhine, Meuse and smaller rivers start at the Dutch border – Water safety – Low flow / drought analysis– Possibility of cross-boundary flooding not taken into accountExcept:– Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime (Rhine and Meuse models do include whole basin)– Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 21
  22. 22. TitelFinal remarksRiver management DP rather conservative approach, not transboundaryVery strong believe in exact design discharge at the border, while in fact this is very uncertain: 1. High safety norm – extreme value statistics 2. Impact of climate change – scenarios / bandwidth 3. Potential of cross-boundary floodingWhy a national scope of the Delta Programme and Delta law?Does this result in optimal measures?How does this link to transboundary European legislation?© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 22
  23. 23. TitelAline te Lindealn@tg.nlwww.twynstragudde.nlwww.deltares.nlwww.ivm.vu.nl© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012 23
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