ICAS Report No. 10a
November 1966

A Recommended National Program

In Weather Modification
A Report to the
Interdepartment...
.

e

.

"I.

.

DONALD F. HORWIG, Chairman
Special Assistant t o the President for Science and Technology
Jowl S. PW!Wt, ...
FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMER...
A Recommended National Program
In Weather Modification
A Report t the
o
Interdepartmental Committee for
Atmospheric Scienc...
A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION

INTRODUCTION
The earth'sJeather has a profound influence on
agricu...
2

importance of pressing forward with the necessary research
to understand the dynamics of weather systems that will
have...
3

With the growing conviction of positive and potential results, a number of government agencies have been
developing pla...
4

M o d i f i c a t i o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e
r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l...
5
t h e r e a l i s m of t h e estimates of manpower r e s o u r c e s and
a v a i l a b i l i t y , and t h e i r impact ...
6

weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o
weather o b s e r v a t i o n and weather r e s e a...
7

do e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r everybody: r a t h e r , it

s h o u l d b u i l d j u d i c i o u s l y upon ...
8

A s w e l l as I could d e t e r m i n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s
a r e counting i n l a r g e measure on ...
9

I n g e n e r a l , t h e proposed program c o n t e n t f o r a l l
f o u r a g e n c i e s a p p e a r s sound, being...
10

PROGRAM THRUST, ASSESSMENT, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Major T h r u s t o f P r o q r a m
I t i s recommended t h a t t h e...
11

i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my
j u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n ...
12

cloud seeding experiments and for studies of lightning
characteristics. The type of lightning discharge most
likely to...
13

3.

The concentration of research on determining
the seeding effects on lightning discharges
having long continued cur...
14

i n t e r e s t i n h a i l suppression. N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s
w e r e s u b m i t t e d , however, t ...
15

i n species b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u g h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r
e x a m p l e , i n v o l v ...
16

b e n e f i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s atmospheric
w a t e r resources.
'I*

T h e program...
17

i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation such as t h o s e mentioned
above. I conclude t h a t t h e program i s s o...
18

dynamics of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n and w i t h weather
r e s e a r c h i n g e n e r a l . A l s o , it would...
19

The proposed ESSA program is a broad research and
development effort of significant magnitude and content.
It covers t...
20

1. M o d i f i c a t i o n of Winter Lake Storms: These
storms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n...
21

6.
I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a t i o n : I n a d v e r t e n t modificat i o n of the weather o c c u r s be...
22

Laboratory S t u d i e s :
are planned:
8.

A number of in-house

studies

(a) C o n s t r u c t i o n of a f l u i d ...
23

1 . Fair weather Cumulus Studies: There has been
0
considerable progress in computer modeling of cumulus
convection. F...
24

s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I propose t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e
w i t h ESSA on a l a r g e...
25

I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a n a l y s i s ,
some i m p o r t a n t p r e...
W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of a
m a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n great d e t a i l and c a n even
estimat...
W would have a b e t t e r chance of developing
e
good mathematical f o r m u l a t i o n s f o r t h e
h u r r i c a n e ...
28

A s a n o t e of c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h o u l d be made
on t h e complexity of t h e proposed r e s...
29

research performed b y m i s s i o n a g e n c i e s , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t
r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l...
30

i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c l o u d chambers o r c l o u d
tunnels i n the laboratory, o...
31

monopolize a major s o u r c e of q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l t h a t t h e
I recommend, t h e r e f o r e ,
o...
32

radiosonde b a l l o o n s , small-scale l a b o r a t o r y and
computing f a c i l i t i e s , and i n d i v i d u a...
33

In assigning responsibility for these facilities
consideration also should be given to their use
by individual agencie...
34

The p r e s e n t - d a y o p e r a t i o n i n modeling t e c h n i q u e s
and numerical f o r e c a s t i n g p r o...
35

C o o r d i n a t i o n and R e p o r t i n q
A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l a n n i n g ,
...
36

I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r
Meteorology should be a s s i g n e d t h e t a...
37

I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o u l d n o t be t h e
I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m ...
30

t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a l
w i t h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , w h i ...
39

I n d i a n Ocean would r e s u l t not o n l y i n t h e
p r e v e n t i o n of p r o p e r t y damage s e v e r a l ...
REFERENCES
1.

Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate
Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences,
Nat...
APPENDICES
I

I1

I11

IV

V

VI

Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, Nati...
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
NAS-NRC

MEMBERSHIP
RECOMMENDATIONS

AP...
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC
Gordon J. F. MacDonald, Univer...
PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION
to the
Committee on Atmospheric Sciences
National Academy of Sciences - National...
a. A comprehensive exploration of hurricane
energetics, leading to the development of a
theoretical hurricane model and, s...
Major Research Facilities and Support Systems
We recommend that all necessary steps be taken to
encourage the computer ind...
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation

MEMBERSHIP

RECOMMENDAT IONS

APPENDIX I1

11-1
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman, Vice President, Colora...
SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION
National Science Foundation
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Progress and Prospe...
3.
Advancement of weather p r e d i c t i o n a s a proof of
u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i n c l u d i n g s u p p o r t o...
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
A recommended national program in weather modification
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A recommended national program in weather modification

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This document from 1966 proves that the Federal Government has been engaging in Weather Modification and Geoengineering for many decades. According to the document, the Weather Modification program had hundreds of millions of dollars of funding back in 1966.

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A recommended national program in weather modification

  1. 1. ICAS Report No. 10a November 1966 A Recommended National Program In Weather Modification A Report to the Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences bY Homer E. Newell Associate Administrator for Space Science and Application National Aeronautics Si Space Administration Washington, D.C. I w W 0 a Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences n 0 n Q 0 I > n 0 0 E m I
  2. 2. . e . "I. . DONALD F. HORWIG, Chairman Special Assistant t o the President for Science and Technology Jowl S. PW!Wt, JR. Department of Defense GT -. SEABORG A t d c Energy Camlssion J. HERBERT H O L U X W Department of Camerce LELAND J. HAwOR!CE Rational Science Foundation PHILIP Re LEE JAMES E WEBB . Department of Health, Education, and Welfare National Aeronautics and Space Administration THCWS F. BATES GEORGEL. MEHRW Department of the Interior Department of Agriculture EEIWAt? POLLACK (Observer) Department of State WILLIAM D. CAREX (Observer) Bureau of the Budget WILLLAM F. McKEE (Observer) Federal Aviation Agency Arms JR. (Observer) Control and Disarmament Agency HERBFST SCOVIIU, JACK W. CARISOH (Observer) Council of Ekonolpic Advisers S DILLON RIpLey (Observer) . Smithsonian Institution CHARtES V. KIDD Executive Secretary J. HEREERT H O L L W N I c s hi m Federal Council f o r Science and Technology UZUND J. HAWORTH, Vice Chairman THMlDoRE C. B m Y National Science Foundation Department of Agriculture Department of Camnerce DONALD M. MCARTMm Department of Defense RICHARD A. PRINDU HaMERE. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare National Aeronautics and Space Administration JOSHUA Z HaLIdl4D (Acting) . Atamic Energy Cammission D- t en HERMAN mucic JOSEWD. BLATT Federal Aviation Agency RO[BERTM. WHITE Department of State m m m THaMAs F. BATES of the Interior Federal Commrnicatlons Caannission DAvlD Z ROBINSON (Observer) . Office of Science and Technology SAMUEL A. IAWREEE (Observer) JOHN R SIEVERS (Observer) . LEE Bureau of the Budget National Academy of Sciences smmmw. BETlls CLAY'IQR E JWSEN (Observer) . Executive Secretary Office of the Federal Coordinator for hieteo-ogicd. Services and S u ~ ~ o r t i n g Research
  3. 3. FEDERAL COUNCIL FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INTERDEPARTMENTAL COMMITTEE FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230 ICAS Report No. 10a November 7, 1966 MEMORANDUM FOR DR. DONALD F HORNIG . Subject: Weather Modification Program At its meeting of March 29, 1966 the Fe~dr61Council askel ICAS to prepare a report outlining "who is doing what in weather modification, the future plans of the agencies (particularly Commerce and Interior) and their interrelationships, and the considerations that should affect decisions on the division of responsibilities for research in weather modification." Forwarded herewith is a Report prepared for ICAS by 3r. Homer E. Newell, the NASA member of ICAS. It has been thoroughly considered by our Committee and is endorsed as the ICAS response to the Council's request above. J. Herbert Hollomon Chairman
  4. 4. A Recommended National Program In Weather Modification A Report t the o Interdepartmental Committee for Atmospheric Sciences bY Homer E. Newel1 Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications lVational Aeronadcs A Space Administration Washington, D.C.' 1 October 1966
  5. 5. A RECOMMENDED NATIONAL PROGRAM IN WEATHER MODIFICATION INTRODUCTION The earth'sJeather has a profound influence on agriculture, forestry, water resources, industry, commerce, transportation, construction, field operations, commercial fishing, and many other human activities. Adverse effects of weather on man's activities and the earth's resources are extremely costly, amounting to billions of dollars per year, sometimes causing irreparable damage as when human lives are lost in severe storms. There is, therefore, great motivation to develop effective countermeasures against the destructive effects of weather, and, conversely, to enhance the beneficial aspects. The financial and other benefits to human welfare of being able to modify weather to augment water supplies, reduce lightning, suppress hail, mitigate tornados, and inhibit the full development of hurricanes would be very great. Over the past twenty years experiments have been conducted on weather modification, particularly on the effects of seedinq clouds with such materials as silver iodide crystals. The results are limited. Under suitable circumstances it has been possible to augment precipitation by ten to twenty percent, and to reduce the frequency of fire-producing lightning strokes. Effects on hail production have been noted, sometimes suppression and sometimes augmentation. These results probably would be of only passing interest were it not for the potential importance to mankind of further progress in this field. Perhaps the most significant result of the experiments to date has been to bring about a change in attitude from one of skeptici9m to one of cautious optimism. The limited success to date is encouraging, and underscores the
  6. 6. 2 importance of pressing forward with the necessary research to understand the dynamics of weather systems that will have to be dealt with in any efforts at weather modification. The gradually accumulating evidence of positive results from efforts at weather modification led the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences, in November 1963,to appoint a Panel on Weather and Climate Modification "to undertake a deliberate and thoughtful review of the present status and activities in this fieldq and of its potential and limitations for the future." The Panel made its report at the beginning of this calendar year (Ref. 1). The composition of the NAS Panel is given in App. I, together with a list of the Panel's recommendations. Elaboration and discussion of these recommendations may be found in Ref. 1. On June 16, 1964, the Director of the National Science Foundation announced the appointment of a Special Commission on Weather Modification. To assist in its review of the field, the Commission activated seven subgroups to study the physical, biological, statistical, social, international, legal and legislative, and administration and funding aspects of weather and climate modification. The membership of the Commission and a list of the principal recommendations of the Commission are attached (App. 11). Fdrther elaboration and discussions of those recommendations may be found in the Commission's report and the report of the subgroups (Refs. 2 and 3). * Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy of qciences-National Research Council; "Weather and Climate Modification," Volume I-Summary and Recommendations, Publication No. 1350, 1966, pg vii
  7. 7. 3 With the growing conviction of positive and potential results, a number of government agencies have been developing plans for research and ultimately operational programs in weather and climate modification. Some of these plans stem from the desire to use weather modification to meet specific mission responsibilities such as development of water resources, protection of crops, __ __ protection against forest fires, ecc: Other plans stem m dire= responsibility for furthering our understanding of weather and its uses. A summary report, "Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in Weather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966, was prepared for the Interdepartmental Committee for Atnospheric Sciences (ICAS) by a Select Panel on Weather Modification (App. 111). -Whereas the ICAS Select Panel report reflected a desirable vigor in pressing forward in this important field, nevertheless, it raised a number of questions as to the soundness and adequacy of proposed plans, the validity of cost estimates, the availsbility of trained people to meet the schedules proposed, overlapping of research activities, duplication of proposed facilities, responsibility for coordination and reporting, and responsibility for regulation and control. To discharge its responsibilities, ICAS must provide answers to these questions and make appropriate recommendations. T o this end, the Chairman of ICAS, Dr. Herbert Hollomon, asked me to review the proposed plans and to submit recommendations that might be adopted by ICAS for a report to Dr. Donald F. Hornig, Director of the Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President. TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR T H I S STUDY The terns of reference for this study are set forth in the memorandum from Dr. Hollomon to me (App. IV), specifically requesting me to formulate a National Weather
  8. 8. 4 M o d i f i c a t i o n Program a l o n g t h e l i n e s d e l i n e a t e d i n t h e r e p o r t of t h e ICAS S e l e c t P a n e l on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n . APPROACH I have t a k e n t h e ICAS Select P a n e l Report (App. 111) a s m s t a r t i n g p o i n t , and have used t h e NAS P a n e l and NSF y S p e c i a l Commission Reports (Refs. 1, 2, 3 ) a s s o u r c e s o f e x p e r t t h i n k i n g on t h e s u b j e c t . I n o r d e r t o p e n e t r a t e i n s u f f i c i e n t d e p t h i n t o t h e problems i n v o l v e d , I p u t t o g e t h e r a p a n e l of N S e x p e r k s , the c o n s t i t u t i o n of AA which i s g i v e n i n App. V. W e m e t a number of t i m e s w i t h r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s from t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e Environmental S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( E S S A ) , t h e I n t e r i o r D e p a r t m e n t ' s Bureau of Reclamation, and t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation (NSF), t o hear b r i e f i n g s on program p l a n s and b u d g e t s , t o d i s c u s s proposed s c h e d u l e s , s t a f f i n g , f a c i l i t y c o n s t r u c t i o n , and o p e r a t i o n s , and t o review i n s o m e d e t a i l t h e v a l i d i t y o f c o s t estimates. W e r e c e i v e d from t h e s e a g e n c i e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e volume of s u p p o r t i n g documentation. Appendix V a l s o i n c l u d e s a chronology of P a n e l m e e t i n g s , and a l i s t of m a t e r i a l reviewed by t h e Panel. I e l e c t e d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e above f o u r a g e n c i e s , s i n c e t h e i r programs, a s set f o r t h i n t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel R e p o r t , p r o j e c t t o over 98% of t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y i n 1970. Because t h e programs of t h e Department of Defense, t h e F e d e r a l A v i a t i o n Agency, and t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e r e such a s m a l l p a r t o f t h e t o t a l , t h e y w e r e n o t reviewed i n d e t a i l . I n a s s e s s i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f cost e s t i m a t e s , I sought t o d e t e r m i n e r e a l i s t i c and r e a s o n a b l e orders of magnitude. P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o a s s e s s i n g * Henceforth t h e NASA Panel w i l l be r e f e r r e d t o simply a s " t h e Panel."
  9. 9. 5 t h e r e a l i s m of t h e estimates of manpower r e s o u r c e s and a v a i l a b i l i t y , and t h e i r impact on p o s s i b l e r a t e s of growth. I a l s o sought t o s e p a r a t e those areas meriting e a r l y a t t e n t i o n from t h o s e of a l o n g e r range n a t u r e t h a t could be approached m o r e slowly. The o b s e r v a t i o n s and recommendations c o n t a i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s a r e based on t h e P a n e l reviews and d e l i b e r a t i o n s . I t should be emphasized t h a t t h e recommendations d e a l w i t h t h e major problems, on .the assumption t h a t i f t h e major problems a r e r e s o l v e d t h e r e m a i n i n g p i e c e s can be f i t t e d i n t o p l a c e . RECOMMENDED PRINCIPLES C e r t a i n p r i n c i p l e s w e r e developed which u n d e r l i e t h e program recommendations. It i s recommended t h a t these p r i n c i p l e s be a c c e p t e d i n t h e development of the N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program. It i s i n t e n d e d t h a t t h e p r i n c i p l e s a p p l y t o a l l a g e n c i e s involved i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , and n o t j u s t t o t h o s e whose programs are d i s c u s s e d i n d e t a i l i n t h i s r e p o r t , The p r i n c i p l e s a r e : 1. There i s s u f f i c i e n t p o t e n t i a l payoff i n d i c a t e d b y t h e r e s u l t s of p a s t r e s e a r c h t o j u s t i f y c o n t i n u i n g b a s i c and a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h i n the area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . 2. The p o t e n t i a l d o l l a r s a v i n g s i n l e s s e n i n g the d e s t r u c t i v e e f f e c t s of w e a t h e r , and t h e potent i a l g a i n s i n enhancing t h e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s , a r e so g r e a t t h a t e x p e n d i t u r e s of a p p r e c i a b l e d o l l a r s on weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a t i o n can be j u s t i f i e d . 3. There i s a need f o r a s i n g l e agency t o assume r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r t a k i n g the l e a d i n d e v e l o p i n g a well-rounded n a t i o n a l program of r e s e a r c h on
  10. 10. 6 weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , p r o p e r l y r e l a t e d t o weather o b s e r v a t i o n and weather r e s e a r c h . (Such a l e a d agency would, however, n o t have a u t h o r i t y t o c o n t r o l t h e c o n t e n t of o t h e r agency programs.) 4. It is of v a l u e and d e s i r a b l e t o m a i n t a i n m u l t i p l e agency approach t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a t i o n , w i t h independent f u n d i n g f o r the d i f f e r e n t agencies. 5. An agency t h a t h a s a major m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y r e q u i r i n g weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r example, augmenting w a t e r r e s o u r c e s or minimizing f o r e s t f i r e s , must be an a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a n t i n t h e t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, b u t w i t h t h e a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n f o c u s i n g and b r o a d l y defining its activity. 6. To a c h i e v e t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e a p p l i c a t i o n of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o i t s m i s s i o n o b j e c t i v e s , a m i s s i o n agency must u n d e r s t a n d t h e b a s i c problems, and hence must be i n v o l v e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n r e l a t e d research. Thus, w h i l e t h e a g e n c y ' s m i s s i o n should f o c u s i t s p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, t h e m i s s i o n should n o t t o o narrowly c o n f i n e t h a t p a r t i c i p a tion. 7. The v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program must s u p p o r t each o t h e r w i t h t h e i r e x p e r i e n c e and c a p a b i l i t i e s . I n a r e a s where s e v e r a l f e d e r a l a g e n c i e s have needs f o r l a b o r a t o r i e s and l a r g e f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t u s e should be made of such f a c i l i t i e s . S i m i l a r l y , e x i s t i n g competence s h o u l d , i n g e n e r a l , be used by o t h e r agencies r a t h e r than duplicated. I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e c e n t r a l agency h a v i n g r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r f o c u s i n g the n a t i o n a l program i n t o a p r o p e r l y b a l a n c e d and i n t e g r a t e d t o t a l must n o t a t t e m p t t o
  11. 11. 7 do e v e r y t h i n g i t s e l f f o r everybody: r a t h e r , it s h o u l d b u i l d j u d i c i o u s l y upon t h e a c t i v i t i e s , c a p a b i l i t i e s , a n d ' m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of t h e various p a r t i c i p a t i n g agencies. 8. A formal procedure must be developed t o a c h i e v e c o n t i n u i n g v i s i b i l i t y and c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e t o t a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program. 9 : There must be r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of weather modification a c t i v i t i e s , e s p e c i a l l y a s those a c t i v i t i e s i n c r e a s e i n magnitude and f r e q u e n c y and become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope. This i s r e q u i r e d e s p e c i a l l y t o p r o v i d e a mechanism f o r p r o t e c t i o n a g a i n s t harmful consequences of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t y b u t a l s e te p e r m i t v a l i d experimentation. OBSERVATIONS I found t h a t the budget f i g u r e s i n t h e I C A S s e l e c t P a n e l Report d i d n o t r e f l e c t t h e c u r r e n t s t a t u s of Indicated rates agency program a n a l y s i s and planning. of growth i n the s e l e c t P a n e l Report w e r e u n r e a l i s t i c a l l y h i g h , i n s o m e cases by a f a c t o r of t w o o r more.
  12. 12. 8 A s w e l l as I could d e t e r m i n e , t h e v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s a r e counting i n l a r g e measure on u s i n g t h e same people a t v a r i o u s c o n t r a c t o r s and u n i v e r s i t i e s t o h e l p c a r r y o u t the planned programs. ESSA a p p e a r s t o have t h e k i n d and q u a n t i t i e s of people r e q u i r e d t o mount a vigorous program i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h , b u t t h e a b i l i t y t o b u i l d up program a c t i v i t y a t a n y t h i n g l i k e t h e proposed r a t e s would depend upon whether t h e s e people can a c t u a l l y be r e a s s i g n e d from t h e i r p r e s e n t d u t i e s . I n g e n e r a l t h e r e was a l a r g e d i s p a r i t y between p r o j e c t e d manpower a v a i l a b i l i t i e s and r e q u i r e m e n t s . T h i s s e r v e s t o emphasize t h a t proposed r a t e s of program growth a r e indeed t o o h i g h , and a l s o t h a t a vigorous e f f o r t should be made t o i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l competence i n t h e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n f i e l d . There a r e a f e w a r e a s of s u f f i c i e n t immediate promise t o warrant moving ahead on e x p e r i m e n t a l o p e r a t i o n a l programs. One i s t h e s e e d i n g of o r o g r a p h i c c l o u d s i n western a r e a s t o augment water p r e c i p i t a t i o n f o r i n c r e a s i n g water supply. Another i s t h e s e e d i n g of d r y , s h a l l o w storms i n t h e Rocky Mountain r e g i o n s f o r s u p p r e s s i o n of t h e k i n d of l i g h t n i n g t h a t c a u s e s f o r e s t f i r e s . I n other a r e a s it appears t o o e a r l y a t t h e p r e s e n t time t o undert a k e o p e r a t i o n a l a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . What is needed a t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e and f o r t h e immediate f u t u r e i s a program of r e s e a r c h , i n c l u d i n g some f i e l d programs, d i r e c t e d toward u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e p h y s i c s and dynamics of weather systems t o p r o v i d e a s c i e n t i f i c b a s i s f o r f u r t h e r e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n .
  13. 13. 9 I n g e n e r a l , t h e proposed program c o n t e n t f o r a l l f o u r a g e n c i e s a p p e a r s sound, being based on a s s e s s m e n t s of p o t e n t i a l p r a c t i c a l r e t u r n s , or on a r e c o g n i t i o n of t h e need f o r r e s e a r c h . Except f o r q u e s t i o n s of u n d e s i r a b l e d u p l i c a t i o n , my c r i t i c i s m l i e s n o t i n t h e s u b j e c t cont e n t of proposed programs, b u t r a t h e r i n t h e a r e a s o f program p h a s i n g , proposed r a t e s of growth, and t h e v a l i d i t y of d o l l a r estimates.
  14. 14. 10 PROGRAM THRUST, ASSESSMENT, AND RECOMMENDATIONS Major T h r u s t o f P r o q r a m I t i s recommended t h a t t h e major t h r u s t o f the N a t i o n a l Program i n Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e immediate f u t u r e be i n t h e d i r e c t i o n of unders t a n d i n g t h e p h y s i c s and dynamics of weather systems t o p r o v i d e a sound b a s i s f o r experimentat i o n i n and a p p l i c a t i o n of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . T h i s w i l l r e q u i r e programs of f i e l d experimentat i o n t o extend and a p p l y t h e r e s u l t s of l a b o r a t o r y and t h e o r e t i c a l research. Budqet 1. I t i s recommended t h a t t h e a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i - p a t i n g i n the weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program g i v e e a r l y a t t e n t i o n t o t h e development of v a l i d budget f i g u r e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o r e a l i s t i c rates of growth, and v a l i d e s t i m a t e s of manpower a v a i l a b i l i t y . 2. While I recommend a v i g o r o u s N a t i o n a l Program of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n , I f e e l t h a t t h e s i z e p r o j e c t e d f o r FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g major f a c i l i t i e s , might r e a s o n a b l y be l i t t l e more t h a n h a l f of t h a t g i v e n i n t h e ICAS S e l e c t Panel Report. Because the v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s w e r e unable t o p r o v i d e firm budget e s t i m a t e s , I w a s i n no p o s i t i o n t o d e v e l o p a d e f i n i t i v e budget. I have, however, p l o t t e d s o m e t r e n d s i n F i g . 2 of App. V I w h i c h q u a n t i t a t e i n a rough way m recommendations r e l a t i v e t o t h e s p e c i f i c agency y programs. The number3 used w e r e a r r i v e d a t from d i s c u s s i o n s w i t h t h e a g e n c i e s and among o u r s e l v e s . The numbers may w e l l have t o be changed a f t e r t h e a g e n c i e s have completed t h e i r a n a l y s e s of a c t u a l requirements:
  15. 15. 11 i n t h e m e a n t i m e , t h e s e may be t a k e n a s i n d i c a t i n g my j u d g m e n t a s t o r e a s o n a b l e orders o f m a g n i t u d e . D e p a r t m e n t o f A q r i c u l t u r e Proqram I b e l i e v e t h a t a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program o f a b o u t $600K i n FY 1967' g r o w i n g t o $7M i n FY 1 9 7 0 i s justifiable. About h a l f o f t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e i s f o r f a c i l i t i e s , i n c l u d i n g p u r c h a s e a n d o p e r a t i o n of s m a l l If a i r c r a f t a n d a much n e e d e d r e s e a r c h l a b o r a t o r y . r e s e a r c h y e t t o be d o n e shows a m i s s i o n - o r i e n t e d program i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t o be w a r r a n t e d , t h e FY 1 9 7 0 f i g u r e c o u l d be l a r g e r . The D e p a r t m e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e program, projected t h r o u g h FY 1 9 7 0 , c a n be c o n s i d e r e d i n t e r m s cf two najcr categories : 1. 2. D i r e c t m o d i f i c a t i o n o f weather E c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research T h e s e r e l a t e i n the main t o t h e s u p p r e s s i o n o f s p e c i f i c h a r m f u l e f f e c t s o f weather phenomena, a n d a s t u d y o f t h e e f f e c t s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon f a r m a n d f o r e s t crops a n d o n l a n d management i n g e n e r a l . The d i r e c t w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n p o r t i o n o f the program i n c l u d e s p r i m a r i l y a n e x p a n d e d l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t a n d a new e f f o r t d i r e c t e d t o w a r d h a i l s u p " P r o j e c t S k y f i r e of p r e s s i o n , t h e Department s t a t e s : t h e U . S . F o r e s t Service i s p e r f o r m i n g a n a c t i v e research program a i m e d a t s u p p r e s s i o n o f l i g h t n i n g w h i c h c a u s e s some 1 0 , 0 0 0 f o r e s t f i r e s a n n u a l l y i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . A f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t i s t e s t i n g the e f f e c t s o f v e r y heavy s e e d i n g w i t h s i l v e r i o d i d e o n l i g h t n i n g storms. The r e s u l t s t o d a t e s h o w a 32 p e r c e n t r e d u c t i o n i n c l o u d to-ground l i g h t n i n g from seeded storms. A s p e c i a l l y i n s t r u m e n t e d f i e l d area u t i l i z i n g three r a d a r s a n d a n e t w o r k of l i g h t n i n g s e n s o r s t a t i o n s i s u s e d f o r the
  16. 16. 12 cloud seeding experiments and for studies of lightning characteristics. The type of lightning discharge most likely to ignite forest fires has been identified. High output airborne and ground based silver iodide generators have been developed. Utilizing data from the experimental area and a network of lightning survey stations, physical and mathematical models of mountain thunderstorms are being developed. 'I* Project Skyfire is providing the basis for achieving a significant reduction in lightning damage in the forest areas of the western United States, which is of appreciable benefit to the country. The objectives of Skyfire clearly fall within the mission responsibilities of the U . S . Forest Service, which should continue to be responsible for the project. The present program has been underway for over ten years. From the data presented to the Panel, it appears that this effort has been underfunded in relation to its potential value to the agency's mission, and to the Nation. I recommend, and regard as minimal, the following effort proposed by Agriculture: 1. Expanded lightning investigations at the Missoula Experimental site and at the Northern Forest Fire Laboratory. 2. Performance of larger scale seeding experiments in two well instrumented experimental areas in the National Forests of the Northern Rockies. A capability should be developed, by strengthening research resources already available, to operate these experimental areas either separately or simultaneously. * United States Department of Agriculture, Summary of Weather Modification Research Program presented on June 2 8 , 1966.
  17. 17. 13 3. The concentration of research on determining the seeding effects on lightning discharges having long continued current portions. Evidence now available indicates that these hybrid discharges are of major importance in igniting forest fuels. 4. Continued research in the development of high output silver iodide smoke generators and in the development of seeding systems for use in forest protection. 5. Continued research in the development of a lightning fire intelligence system including storm tracking, discharge measurements, and lightning risk evaluation in the fc?rest f i r e danger rating program. Most of the Agriculture budget is to support the above program, and includes all necessary facilities such as observational networks, operation and acquisition of research aircraft, cloud seeding equipment, radar, and a special laboratory for lightning studies. These facilities and the increased efforts they support represent, in my opinion, realistic growth. There is at the present no substantial Department of Agriculture effort in hail suppression. The Department states: "The Department of Agriculture research program in hail suppression is in an embryo stage. The main activity is preliminary planning of a long range research program. 'I* The Department of Agriculture's miss ion responsibilities for crop protection were well documented and defined to the Panel, and are the basis for an active *United States Department of Agriculture, Summary of Weather Modification Research Program presented on June 28, 1966.
  18. 18. 14 i n t e r e s t i n h a i l suppression. N o s c i e n t i f i c d e t a i l s w e r e s u b m i t t e d , however, t o j u s t i f y u n d e r t a k i n g a largeS c i e n t i f i c r e s u l t s t o date s c a l e program a t t h i s t i m e . are inadequate f o r d e f i n i n g a v a l i d program t o a p p l y h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s t o such a p p l i c a t i o n s as crop protection. I recommend a g a i n s t the expansion of A g r i c u l t u r e ' s h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n e f f o r t s beyond a m o d e s t e f f o r t f o r t h e t i m e being. I recommend t h a t t h e Environmental S c i e n c e S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , i n close c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h the D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e , take the lead i n t h e development and conduct of a program t o understand t h e basic physics of h a i l - p r o d u c i n g s t o r m s , and of h a i l - s u p p r e s s i o n I recommend t h a t , as t h e n e c e s s a r y s c i e n t i f i c mechanisms. r a t i o n a l e i s developed, t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e take t h e l e a d i n conducting large-scale f i e l d experiments i n h a i l s u p p r e s s i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e western p l a i n s area w h e r e h a i l damage t o a g r i c u l t u r e i s m o s t s e v e r e . Should t h i s become a c h i e v a b l e i n t h e 1970 t i m e period, the t o t a l Department of A g r i c u l t u r e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget f o r FY 1970 would have t o be larger t h a n t h e $7M i n d i c a t e d earlier . T e e c o l o g i c a l and s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n of h t h e program i n c l u d e s three areas: b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e s t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , boundary-layer energy exchange, and remote s e n s i n g i n s u p p o r t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . A t p r e s e n t , there i s l i t t l e w o r k under way i n t h e f i r s t a r e a , and o n l y modest, e a r l y e f f o r t s e x i s t i n t h e l a s t two. I f e e l t h a t A g r i c u l t u r e ' s e x p e r i e n c e and in-house c a p a b i l i t i e s i n such areas a s e c o l o g y , boundary-layer energy exchange, and basic research i n s u p p o r t of t h e i r e x c e l l e n t l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n program r e q u i r e augmentat i o n . These e f f o r t s are p e r t i n e n t t o a program of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a t i o n , and are otherwise p a r t of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e mission. I n some r e g a r d s , however, I do have concern. F i e l d o b s e r v a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o changes
  19. 19. 15 i n species b r o u g h t a b o u t t h r o u g h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , f o r e x a m p l e , i n v o l v e considerable u n c e r t a i n t i e s r e l a t i v e t o t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s of w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n . I t is v e r y i m p o r t a n t , theref ore, t o e s t a b l i s h e a r l y t h e n e c e s s a r y b a s e l i n e data f o r l a t e r c o m p a r i s o n s a n d a n a l y s e s . S i m i l a r l y , a program i n boundary l a y e r e f f e c t s g e n e r a t e d t h r o u g h w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n must d e a l w i t h d i f f i c u l t i e s of e s t a b l i s h i n g f i r m l y a t r u e c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n ship. I c o n c l u d e t h a t the b u d g e t s u b m i s s i o n b y A g r i c u l t u r e f o r research i n t h e e c o l o g i c a l a n d s u p p o r t i n g research p o r t i o n s of t h e p r o g r a m i s i n e x c e s s of the present capability. N e v e r t h e l e s s , I f e e l t h a t growth i n these f u n d a m e n t a l areas i s d e s i r a b l e a n d s h o u l d be supported. D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r Proqram I recommend a D e p a r t m e n t o f I n t e r i o r b u d g e t f o r w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s of a b o u t $3M i n FY 1967 g r o w i n g t o a b o u t $35M i n FY 1 9 7 0 , i n c l u d i n g n e e d e d f a c i l i t i e s and o p e r a t i o n . The main t h r u s t of I n t e r i o r ' s p r o g r a m i s i n t h e area of p r e c i p i t a t i o n a u g m e n t a t i o n . The D e p a r t m e n t of I n t e r i o r has b e e n a s s i g n e d n a t i o n a l w a t e r r e s o u r c e management r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , a n d t h u s a n e f f o r t i n t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n a n d u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e w a t e r r e s o u r c e is c l e a r l y a n I n t e r i o r m i s s i o n a n d i s i n t h e national interest. The s i n g u l a r o b j e c t i v e of I n t e r i o r ' s A t m o s p h e r i c Water R e s o u r c e s Program has b e e n t o a s c e r t a i n t h e t e c h n i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c f e a s i b i l i t y of i n c r e a s i n g the w a t e r s u p p l y f o r B u r e a u of R e c l a m a t i o n p r o j e c t s t h r o u g h weather modification. Research r e s u l t s t o d a t e show s u f f i c i e n t promise t h a t t h e p r o g r a m h a s b e e n r e o r i e n t e d t o r e f l e c t t h e e v e n t u a l goal of t h e "effective,
  20. 20. 16 b e n e f i c i a l u t i l i z a t i o n of t h e n a t i o n ' s atmospheric w a t e r resources. 'I* T h e program t o gate h a s included, a p p r o p r i a t e l y , cloud-seeding e f f o r t s , research i n v o l v i n g the a c q u i s i t i o n of f i e l d d a t a i n a l l the e x p e r i m e n t a l areas, and climatology. I n t e r i o r ' s program h a s c o n c e n t r a t e d on a number of f i e l d experiments i n t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s . A program a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y of Wyoming devoted to t h e s t u d y of cap c l o u d s h a s produced amounts o f w a t e r which appear to o f f e r promise o f economic s i g n i f i c a n c e . I n t e r i o r ' s Basin program ranges f r o m t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s of c l o u d p h y s i c s t o a c t u a l m o d i f i c a t i o n o p e r a t i o n s , and i n c l u d e s t h e development of i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n and d a t a a c q u i s i t i o n systems. The Southern S i e r r a program h a s s t u d i e d t h e effect i v e n e s s of cloud seeding i n t h a t s p e c i a l i z e d area. The P a c i f i c Northwest program h a s i n c l u d e d experiments on s h i f t i n g p r e c i p i t a t i o n from areas of s u r p l u s t o a r e a s of d e f i c i t . I n Washington and Oregon the windward s l o p e s of c o a s t a l mountains r e c e i v e l a r g e amounts of p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e run-off o f w h i c h r e t u r n s t o t h e ocean unused. F a r t h e r i n l a n d , t h e r e a r e areas where t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n i s l e s s t h a n one t e n t h a s g r e a t . I f it w e r e p o s s i b l e t o s h i f t some of t h e l o s t p r e c i p i t a t i o n , t h e economic b e n e f i t would be g r e a t . The r e s e a r c h program submitted by I n t e r i o r t o I C A S r e f l e c t s q u i t e w e l l a l l a r e a s of s t u d y t h a t w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o s u p p o r t proposed i n t e n s i v e f i e l d experiments *Plans f o r t h e Department of I n t e r i o r ' s Atmospheric Water Resources Program, p r e s e n t e d t o ICAS on May 1 3 , 1966.
  21. 21. 17 i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation such as t h o s e mentioned above. I conclude t h a t t h e program i s s o u n d l y b a s e d , is b e i n g competently c a r r i e d o u t , i s of b e n e f i t t o t h e c o u n t r y , and s h o u l d be c o n t i n u e d . I f e e l t h a t t h e proposed r a t e s of growth exceed I n t e r i o r ' s in-house and p o t e n t i a l c o n t r a c t o r c a p a b i l i t y and I recommend t h e l o w e r r a t e of growth f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h area correspondi n g t o t h e budget f i g u r e s g i v e n above. T h e s u p p o r t i n g budget m a t e r i a l s u b m i t t e d t o t h e P a n e l d i s c u s s e d t h e establishment of f i e l d l a b o r a t o r i e s which would i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g n e c e s s a r y f a c i l i t i e s : r a d a r and rawinsonde i n s t a l l a t i o n s , b a l l o o n i n f l a t i o n s h e l t e r s , r e p a i r s h o p s , a i r p o r t s , temporary h o u s i n g , etc. I f e e l t h a t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of an e x t e n s i v e ~ets-mrk of such field s t a t i o n s i s a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n i c a l l y and e v e n t u a l l y s h o u l d be accomplished w i t h i n t h e Department of I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n . I estimate t h a t n o t more t h a n t e n f i e l d s i t e s a r e c o n s i s t e n t with t h e a p p a r e n t potent i a l i t i e s of t h e Department-of I n t e r i o r through t h e FY 1970 t i m e period. The c o s t per f i e l d s i t e a s deduced from t h e m a t e r i a l provided b y I n t e r i o r i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2% m i l l i o n d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g such equipment i t e m s a s weather r a d a r , rawinsondes, t e l e m e t r y s e t s , t r a c e r d i s p e n s e r s , and a t o t a l of a b o u t e i g h t t w i n e n g i n e a i r c r a f t f o r t h e t e n f i e l d sites. This equipment i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of t h e proposed s i t e implementation s e t f o r t h i n the m a t e r i a l supplied b y I n t e r i o r . I recommend t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA i n a c c o m p l i s h i n g I n t e r i o r ' s m i s s i o n of augmenting p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t o r of the c o u n t r y . I b e l i e v e t h a t there are s i g n i f i c a n t advantages t o I n t e r i o r ' s d e v e l o p i n g a f i r m , c l e a r l y d e f i n e d agreement w i t h ESSA t o accomplish t h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t . Such a n arrangement would s p r e a d t h e base of t h e government's e x p e r i e n c e i n t h i s f i e l d . I t would p e r m i t ESSA t o i n t e g r a t e the p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation a c t i v i t y w i t h a b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and
  22. 22. 18 dynamics of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n and w i t h weather r e s e a r c h i n g e n e r a l . A l s o , it would p r o v i d e I n t e r i o r w i t h valuable a s s i s t a n c e i n i t s important w a t e r ' r e s o u r c e s program. I f such a c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h ESSA i s a r r a n g e d , E S S A ' s a s s i s t a n c e may p e r m i t a c c e l e r a t i o n of the p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation program, which i n t u r n would r e q u i r e e a r l i e r i n c r e a s e s i n t h e I n t e r i o r budget t h a n a r e i n d i c a t e d i n t h e c u r v e of App. V I . The c o l l a b o r a t i o n recommended above i s one example of how t w o a g e n c i e s may p r o f i t a b l y work t o g e t h e r t o achieve t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e goals. I t may be e x p e c t e d t h a t many such o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l l a r i s e i n t h e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n program, and f u l l advantage s h o u l d be t a k e n of t h o s e o p p o r t u n i t i e s . The development and o p e r a t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e weather s i m u l a t i o n f a c i l i t y w i l l b e n e f i t from multiagency c o l l a b o r a t i o n i n i t s d e s i g n and u s e . Although I recommend below t h a t ESSA be t h e prime mover i n the a r e a of s e v e r e s t o r m m o d i f i c a t i o n , it is r e c o g n i z e d t h a t I n t e r i o r and A g r i c u l t u r e have a n u l t i m a t e i n t e r e s t h e r e , and one can foresee t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of c o l l a b o r a t i v e e f f o r t s among ESSA, I n t e r i o r , and A g r i c u l t u r e . Like t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e , t h e Department of I n t e r i o r h a s an i n t e r e s t i n and concern w i t h t h e e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I n p l a n n i n g f o r programs i n atmospheric w a t e r r e s o u r c e s , t h e Department i s i n c l u d i n g p r o v i s i o n f o r a p p r o p r i a t e s t u d i e s i n this a r e a . ESSA Proqram I recommend a weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget f o r ESSA of a b o u t $1.5M i n FY 1967, r i s i n g t o a b o u t $25M i n F 1970. I s u p p o r t t h e program c o n t e n t , b u t q u e s t i o n Y t h e proposed r a t e of growth t o $20M i n FY 1968. While ESSA demonstrated t h e n e c e s s a r y d i v e r s i t y of in-house t a l e n t , I a m unable t o judge whether ESSA i s a b l e t o r e a s s i g n a l l t h e needed p e r s o n n e l from o t h e r a r e a s t o t h e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t .
  23. 23. 19 The proposed ESSA program is a broad research and development effort of significant magnitude and content. It covers the many areas that must be understood to attack and solve the problem of attaining beneficial weather control. The following technical areas, from a list provided by ESSA, illustrate the breadth of the proposed effort: cloud physics; atmospheric electricity; statistical design and evaluation; hurricane structure and modification; severe local storm structure; atmospheric contamination; inadvertent modification; computer modeling; global cloud analysis, primarily satellite work; drought and climatic variations: atmosphere radiation and heat balance; sea/air interaction; transport and diffusion plume tracing; specialized instrument development: hydrometeorology; socioeconomics ; and ecology. I believe that a broad research and development effort of the general content of the proposed ESSA program is essential to a significant national weather modification effort. I recommend that ESSA have the responsibility for the research and development that is essential to a viable national weather modification program, supplementing and integrating the research programs of the mission-oriented agencies. But, I recommend that ESSA not duplicate the programs of the mission-oriented agencies discussed above, and the basic research programs of NSF discussed below. I strongly support the ESSA mission responsibility in areas such as severe storm suppression, hurricane modification, and large-scale long-range atmospheric modeling. The following areas are considered essential for establishing the broad base of research necessary for the national weather modification effort. The descriptions given below were extracted from the material provided by ESSA. The recommended funding permits inclusion of these activities in the ESSA program.
  24. 24. 20 1. M o d i f i c a t i o n of Winter Lake Storms: These storms form i n e a r l y w i n t e r when s h a l l o w c o n t i n e n t a l c o l d a i r b l o w s a c r o s s the u n f r o z e n l a k e s , p i c k i n g up The l o c a l m o i s t u r e from t h e warm w a t e r s u r f a c e . c h a r a c t e r of t h e storm would p e r m i t over-seeding and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n . M o d i f i c a t i o n of C o l l o i d a l S t a b i l i t y : A n a t t e m p t would be made t o s e e d t r o p i c a l m a r i t i m e c l o u d s with condensation n u c l e i i n order t o increase t h e i r c o l l o i d a l s t a b i l i t y and t o p r e v e n t r a i n . This a c t i v i t y may e n t e r a s e m i - o p e r a t i o n a l s t a t e d u r i n g FY 1972. ' 2. 3. A q I Diffusion: T h i s p r o j e c t supplements the r e s e a r c h under i t e m 1 above. I t is b e l i e v e d t h a t the v e r t i c a l d i f f u s i o n of AgI can be s t u d i e d i n t h e w i n t e r i n t h e G r e a t Lakes Region d u r i n g p r e s e n c e of extended supercooled c l o u d l a y e r s . AgI w i l l be g e n e r a t e d i n g r e a t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a t t h e s u r f a c e . The a n a l y s i s of i t s e f f e c t on t h e c l o u d deck w i l l be done b y radar. 4. Cumulus D y n a m i c s : T h i s i s p a r t of P r o j e c t Storm Fury. I t i n v o l v e s the c o n t i n u e d s t u d y of cumulus dynamics by means of t h e release of heat of f u s i o n through s e e d i n g w i t h p y r o t e c h n i c s . A two-year c y c l e of randomized f i e l d e x p e r i m e n t a t i o n i s f o r e s e e n i n t h e Barbados I s l a n d a r e a , which p e r m i t s s t u d y of b o t h m a r i t i m e and c o n t i n e n t a l c l o u d s . 5. H a i l Suppression: S e v e r a l approaches are contemplated: (a) a f i e l d p r o j e c t t o s t u d y h a i l s t o n e s t r u c t u r e t o d e t e r m i n e where i n t h e c l o u d the h a i l s t o n e o r i g i n a t e d , (b) a i r b o r n e s t u d i e s of h a i l s t o r m s t o a s s e s s t h e r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of mothercloud and a n v i l i n t h e h a i l p r o c e s s , and (c) r a d a r s t u d i e s t o a n a l y z e f u r t h e r t h e "anatomy" of t h e h a i l s t o r m . A r e a s of a c t i v i t y w i l l be Norman, Oklahoma; Boulder, Colorado: and F l a g s t a f f , Arizona.
  25. 25. 21 6. I n a d v e r t e n t M o d i f i c a t i o n : I n a d v e r t e n t modificat i o n of the weather o c c u r s because of p o l l u t i o n of t h e atmosphere by a r t i f i c i a l gaseous and p a r t i c u l a t e c o n s t i t u e n t s , and changes i n s u r f a c e c h a r a c t e r and a l b e d o due t c ? a g r i c u l t u r e and c o n s t r u c t i o n . The effects of a i r p o l l u t i o n become a p p a r e n t i n three a r e a s : atmospheric c h e m i s t r y , o p t i c s , and e l e c t r i c i t y , a l l o f which are s t u d i e d i n t h i s program. (a) Benchmark Proqram: The c o n c e n t r a t i o n of a t m o s p h e r i c c o n s t i t u e n t s , n a t u r a l l y and a r t i f i c i a l l y g e n e r a t e d , w i l l be measured a t v a r i o u s l o c a t i o n s . The Mauna L o a O b s e r v a t o r y and t h e Boulder s t a t i o n s w i l l take p a r t i n t h e f u l l program. Other s t a t i o n s may be selected i n t h e E a s t e r n U . S . and i n t h e n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e r n hemispheres. The program w i l l b e g i n by m o n i t o r i n g 0 3 and C 0 2 c o n t e n t s . The f i r s t phase w i l l c o n c e r n i t s e l f w i t h t h e development of a CO2 m o n i t o r i n g method. E v e n t u a l l y , t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s of s u l p h a t e s , n i t r a t e s , c h l o r i d e s , and b i o l o g i c a l contaminants w i l l a l s o be monitored. Albedo, t u r b i d i t y , r a d i a t i o n , a e r o s o l s : I t i s planned t o s t a r t on a s y s t e m a t i c r e s e a r c h program t o s t u d y t h e s e parameters. (b) (c) Atmospheric e l e c t r i c parameters: I t i s planned t o s t u d y t h e e l e c t r i c a l parameters ( p o t e n t i a l g r a d i e n t , c o n d u c t i v i t y , a i r - e a r t h c u r r e n t ) of t h e und i s t u r b e d weather u s i n g radiosondes a l r e a d y developed. These p a r a m e t e r s may prove t o be a powerful t o o l f o r m o n i t o r i n g n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l a i r p o l l u t i o n . 7. Study of Rain and Snow P r e c i p i t a t i o n : The importance of t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n It p a r t i c l e s f o r e f f e c t i v e r a i n o u t must be s t u d i e d . i s planned t o conduct f i e l d experiments u s i n g r a d a r , and r a i n d r o p s p e c t r o m e t e r s , and t o develop t h e o r e t i c a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n models. Research under t h i s p r o j e c t w i 11 p r o b a b l y r e q u i r e many y e a r s .
  26. 26. 22 Laboratory S t u d i e s : are planned: 8. A number of in-house studies (a) C o n s t r u c t i o n of a f l u i d m o d e l f o r t h e s t u d y of i n f l u x c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n t o t o r n a d i c storms. (b) N u c l e a t i o n s t u d i e g : S t u d i e s are planned t o l e a r n more a b o u t the a c t i o n of s i l v e r i o d i d e as a f r e e z i n g o r a s a s u b l i m a t i o n n u c l e u s , and about i t s a g i n g under i r r a d i a t i o n b y t h e sun. I n a d d i t i o n t o these s t u d i e s , v a r i o u s other n u c l e a t i n g a g e n t s , such a s l e a d T h i s may lead t o t h e d i s c o v e r y o x i d e , w i l l be i n v e s t i g a t e d . of less expensive materials w i t h a d i s p e r s a b i l i t y e q u i v a l e n t t o A g I , and u s a b l e i n p y r o t e c h n i c d i s p e n s e r s . 9. Water Budget of Storms: L i t t l e i s known of the w a t e r budget of e x t r a t r o p i c a l storms. Analyses b y Bradbury, E l l i o t t , and A t l a s , and b y Wexler i n d i c a t e t h a t w a t e r storage o c c u r s i n such storms and t h a t t h e r e f o r e chances of r a i n augmentation e x i s t . S y s t e m a t i c i n v e s t i g a t i o n s however are missing. The same i s t r u e of c o n v e c t i v e storms. Only f o r t h e case of a i r m a s s thunderstorms does a n a n a l y s i s e x i s t (by Braham), w h i l e the w a t e r b u d g e t of h a i l s t o r m s o r t o r n a d o s i s unknown. One a n a l y s i s of t h e i n f l u x of a i r i n t o these storms gave v a l u e s of more t h a n 100 c u b i c k i l o m e t e r s i n one minute. P l a n s c a l l f o r a d i v e r s i f i e d approach. In the i n i t i a l phase t h e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a b l e w a t e r w i l l be s t u d i e d u s i n g a network of e x i s t i n g U . S . weather i n s t r u m e n t s . T h i s s t u d y w i l l be d e s i g n e d t o f u r n i s h the i n f l u x of vapor a c r o s s t h e s h o r e s of the Gulf of Mexico f o r c e r t a i n weather s i t u a t i o n s , o r f r o m t h e Gulf of C a l i f o r n i a , f o r i n s t a n c e , f o r t h e s h o r t p e r i o d of the summer monsoon which i s s o i m p o r t a n t t o Arizona. The second phase c a l l s f o r a m e t e o r o l o g i c a n a l y t i c s t u d y of t h e w a t e r budget of s t o r m s , supplemented b y a i r c r a f t and r a d i o s o n d e network d a t a c o l l e c t i o n .
  27. 27. 23 1 . Fair weather Cumulus Studies: There has been 0 considerable progress in computer modeling of cumulus convection. Further progress requires the input of data measured inside cumulus clouds. It is intended to initiate a program of in-cloud measurements using novel instrumentation, Temperature will be measured using remote IR techniques from the penetrating aircraft: other parameters, e.g. updraft and liquid content, will be measured as instrumentation is developed. 1 . Atmospheric Chemistry: This project is geared 1 to the application of chemical analysis methods to atmospheric physics. It is intended to measure, record, and analyze the chemical constituents of clouds, rain, and other precipitation. Ion conductivity, pH value, and ion identity, are some of the parameters which will be recorded at mountain stations as well as on aircraft. 12. Instrument Development: Instruments must be developed to perform over the whole range of atmospheric parameters for use in aircraft as well as on the ground. Other equally important areas of investigation will arise as the entire program gets moving. I believe that projects in the above areas of basic research can now be implemented and are within the technical capability of ESSA. An important recommendation of the National Academy of Sciences was "the early establishment of several carefully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned in such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability of a variety of storm types."* One of these should be in the eastern sector of the U . S . As noted above under the *Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council; "Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects, volume I- SUImtary and Recommendations, Publication No. 13508 1966, pg 23.
  28. 28. 24 s e c t i o n on I n t e r i o r , I propose t h a t I n t e r i o r c o l l a b o r a t e w i t h ESSA on a l a r g e - s c a l e f i e l d program i n p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation i n t h e e a s t e r n o r n o r t h e a s t e r n s e c t i o n i n keeping w i t h the c o n c e p t t h a t t h e Department of I n t e r i o r h a s m i s s i o n r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s enhancement while ESSA should conduct a b r o a d program of e x p l o r a t o r y r e s e a r c h i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l s and s c i e n t i f i c bases f o r A v e r y i m p o r t a n t r e a s o n t h a t ESSA weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . undertake t h i s work w i t h I n t e r i o r under a memorandum of u n d e r s t a n d i n g i s so t h a t ESSA may i n t e g r a t e t h i s a c t i v i t y w i t h t h e i r b r o a d e r program of r e s e a r c h on t h e p h y s i c s and dynamics of weather, The ESSA ongoing e f f o r t s i n s e v e r e s t o r m s and h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h , and the development and u s e of t h e Norman, O k l a h o m a , f a c i l i t y , s h o u l d be augmented a t a b o u t t h e r a t e proposed b y ESSA. T h e N a t i o n a l Severe Storms L a b o r a t o r y (NSSL) h a s a comprehensive o b s e r v a t i o n a l f a c i l i t y used t o d e f i n e b e t t e r t h e c o n d i t i o n s which spawn s e v e r e s t o r m s , t h e l o c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s which are the s t o r m , and t h e a s s o c i a t e d budgets of w a t e r s u b s t a n c e and energy, During t h e o b s e r v a t i o n a l period April-June 1966, t h i s i n c l u d e d c a l i b r a t e d Doppler and c o n v e n t i o n a l r a d a r s , networks of 56 s u r f a c e weather s t a t i o n s , 1 7 5 r a i n g a g e s , 10 r a d i o sonde s t a t i o n s provided b y t h e U. S A i r Force and t h e . U S Army, and a 1600-foot i n s t r u m e n t e d t e l e v i s i o n . . tower, c l o u d cameras, and s e v e r a l i n s t r u m e n t e d a i r c r a f t of ESSA and USAF. A l i g h t n i n g l o c a t i n g system i s under development a l s o , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e e l e c t r i c a l energy of storms can be c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t o r n a d o development and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of p r e c i p i t a t i o n r e v e a l e d b y r a d a r . ESSA f e e l s t h a t a more a c c u r a t e d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e storms can be o b t a i n e d by i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the observat i o n s i n l i g h t of c o n s t r a i n i n g p r i n c i p l e s of m a s s c o n t i n u i t y and e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n o r c o n v e r s i o n ,
  29. 29. 25 I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o r e t i c a l s t u d i e s and d a t a a n a l y s i s , some i m p o r t a n t p r e s e n t and planned e f f o r t s a r e : Round-the-clock r a d a r s u r v e i l l a n c e and data r e c o r d i n g . T h i s should p r o v i d e means f o r d e t e r m i n i n g a s s o c i a t i o n s among s e v e r e storm o c c u r r e n c e s and topography, t i m e of day, s e a s o n , and s y n o p t i c m e t e o r o l o g i c a l p a r a m e t e r s , and w i l l provide a body of cont r o l d a t a f o r the better e v a l u a t i o n of a t t e m p t s b y NSSL and o t h e r a g e n c i e s t o .modify Oklahoma storms. Continued development of computer programs for p r o c e s s i n g t h e voluminous radar and mesonetwork d a t a . I n s t a l l a t i o n of a d d i t i o n a l mesonetwork s u r f a c e s t a t i o n s between e x i s t i n g ones now located 10 t o 15 m i l e s a p a r t . A d d i t i o n a l s t a t i o n s are needed t o record a d e q u a t e l y t h e scales of motion c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of severe s t o r m s . C o n s t r u c t i o n of a l0cm-Doppler r a d a r f o r improved v e l o c i t y measuring c a p a b i l i t y a t l o n g e r range. Development of improved means f o r d i r e c t d i g i t a l r e c o r d i n g and p r o c e s s i n g of c o n v e n t i o n a l and Doppler r a d a r d a t a . S c i e n t i s t s a t t h e N a t i o n a l H u r r i c a n e Research Laborat o r y , M i a m i , F l o r i d a , and c o o p e r a t i n g groups are s t u d y i n g t h e h u r r i c a n e and i t s environment, and o t h e r t r o p i c a l c i r c u l a t i o n s t h a t e i t h e r may become a h u r r i c a n e or a f f e c t t h e development of one. The f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n f u r n i s h e d b y ESSA g i v e s t h e r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e h u r r i c a n e research program.
  30. 30. W e can now describe the s t r u c t u r e of a m a t u r e h u r r i c a n e i n great d e t a i l and c a n even estimate p r o b a b l e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e s t r u c t u r e w i t h t i m e i n the same h u r r i c a n e or b e t w e e n hurricanes. O u r knowledge of t h e s t r u c t u r e of d e v e l o p i n g and d i s s i p a t i n g t r o p i c a l c y c l o n e s i s less complete, b u t even i n these c a s e s many d a t a have been c o l l e c t e d and analyzed. i n recent y e a r s i n d e v e l o p i n g mathematical models of hurricanes. The most advanced of t h e s e models i s now b e i n g used f o r p a r t i a l l y e v a l u a t i n g simple m o d i f i c a t i o n h y p o t h e s e s . G r e a t advances have been made I n s p i t e of a l l t h e p r o g r e s s t h a t h a s been made i n h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h i n r e c e n t y e a r s , much needs t o be done b e f o r e w e c a n (1) g a i n a n adequate u n d e r s t a n d i n g of many d e t a i l s of the energy p r o c e s s e s i n h u r r i c a n e s , (2) s a t i s f a c t o r i l y explain or p r e d i c t t h e formation and i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of t r o p i c a l c y c l o n e s , o r ( 3 ) d e v e l o p r e a l i s t i c and a c c u r a t e dynamical n u m e r i c a l models of h u r r i c a n e s . When we can s i m u l a t e a h u r r i c a n e w i t h a good numerical model w e w i l l have accomplished a major b r e a k t h r o u g h i n t h e e f f o r t s t o f i n d a t e c h n i q u e f o r modifying these storms. Two of t h e major d e f i c i e n c i e s i n t h e h u r r i c a n e models c u r r e n t l y b e i n g tested are the mathematical f o r m u l a t i o n s b o t h f o r the f r i c t i o n l a y e r a n d f o r the t r a n s f e r of e n e r g y b e t w e e n t h e e a r t h and the atmosphere a n d through t h e lower l a y e r s of t h e atmosphere. U n t i l our knowledge and u n d e r s t a n d i n g of these p r o c e s s e s i s g r e a t l y improved, it i s d o u b t f u l i f we w i l l be a b l e t o s i m u l a t e a hurricane w i t h a t r u l y s a t i s f a c t o r y numerical model.
  31. 31. W would have a b e t t e r chance of developing e good mathematical f o r m u l a t i o n s f o r t h e h u r r i c a n e f r i c t i o n l a y e r and f o r t h e t r a n s f e r of energy i f w e had t h e r i g h t k i n d of d a t a f o r t e s t i n g t h e f o r m u l a t i o n s t h a t a r e proposed, W need t o know t h e r a t e and means of t h e e t r a n s f e r of momentum, s e n s i b l e h e a t , and water e vapor with i t s l a t e n t h e a t . W should be a b l e t o determine t h e s e t h i n g s i f w had good e measurements of t h e v e r t i c a l and h o r i z o n t a l w i n d components, temperature, and humidity a t a number of l e v e l s from s e a l e v e l up through t h e f i r s t few thousand f e e t of atmosphere. These d a t a a r e needed f o r t h e t u r b u l e n t a s w e l l a s t h e l a r g e r s c a l e s of motion. E f f o r t s t o a c q u i r e a better understanding of t h e g e n e s i s p r o c e s s , and t o develop t e c h n i q u e s f o r p r e d i c t i n g h u r r i c a n e formation and f u r t h e r i n t e n s i f i c a t i o n a r e l i k e w i s e handicapped b y l a c k of d a t a . T h i s i s due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e favored g e n e s i s a r e a s a r e o u t s i d e t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l d a t a networks, Some of t h e needed d a t a can be o b t a i n e d by r e s e a r c h a i r c r a f t . C o l l e c t i o n of t h e s e d a t a could be g r e a t l y a c c e l e r a t e d , however, with more a i r c r a f t of g r e a t e r range. The improved weather s a t e l l i t e s a r e already helping this data collection e f f o r t and t h e synchronous s a t e l l i t e should be of I t is hoped t h a t t h e t r o p i c a l great assistance. experiment and t h e improved d a t a c o l l e c t i o n e f f o r t s proposed f o r the World Weather Watch w i l l a l s o be u s e f u l . Along w i t h t h e i n c r e a s e d e f f o r t s a t s p e c i a l i z e d c o l l e c t i o n , t h e r e should be more t h e o r e t i c a l These should i n c l u d e n o t o n l y investigations. t h e s t u d y of t h e h u r r i c a n e b u t a l s o t h e o t h e r It i s u n l i k e l y t h a t circulations i n the tropics. w e w i l l e v e r f u l l y understand t h e h u r r i c a n e u n t i l we have a b e t t e r understanding of i t s environment.
  32. 32. 28 A s a n o t e of c a u t i o n , I f e e l a p o i n t s h o u l d be made on t h e complexity of t h e proposed r e s e a r c h . A s i l l u s t r a t e d b y c u r r e n t p r o g r e s s w i t h P r o j e c t s t o r m Fury, t h e probab i l i t y of a c q u i r i n g a h u r r i c a n e f o r m o d i f i c a t i o n purp0se.c a t t h i s t i m e s e e m s t o be a b o u t t h r e e storms e v e r y t w o years. Indeed, c u r r e n t e f f o r t s have y e t t o a c q u i r e t h c f i r s t such storm w e l l i n t o t h e second y e a r of o p e r a t i o n . For h u r r i c a n e s t u d i e s and p o s s i b l e m o d i f i c a t i o n , e x p e n s i v e f a c i l i t i e s such as f l i g h t research a i r c r a f t are r e q u i r e d on a s e a s o n a l basis, w i t h t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t n a t u r a l v a r i a n c e i n t h e desired weather p a t t e r n p r o h i b i t s a p r e d i c t i o n of how l o n g such r e s e a r c h must be c o n t i n u e d b e f o r e meaningful r e s u l t s can be expected. I recommend t h a t t h e proposed e f f o r t by ESSA i n t h e a r e a s of s e v e r e storm and h u r r i c a n e r e s e a r c h be s u p p o r t e d and p u r s u e d v i g o r o u s l y . N S F Proqram I recommend an i n c r e a s e i n t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation (NSF) weather m o d i f i c a t i o n budget t o a b o u t $ 5 M i n F Y 1967, growing t o $20M i n FY 1970. The F Y 1970 f i g u r e i n c l u d e s $10M f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of a l a r g e - s c a l e simulat i o n f a c i l i t y f o r basic r e s e a r c h i n c l o u d p h y s i c s t o be erected and o p e r a t e d b y t h e N a t i o n a l Center f o r Atmospheric Research JNCAR), I f p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f a c i l i t y moves r a p i d l y , some of t h e $10M might be needed e a r l i e r t h a n FY 1970. The N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation proposes t o i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p o r t of basic and c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h which i s a p p r o p r i a t e and fundamental t o any program of weather modification. The N S F program should be directed toward t h r e e i m p o r t a n t o b j e c t i v e s : (1) t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a sound s c i e n t i f i c f o u n d a t i o n f o r an i n t e n s i f i e d program o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , ( 2 ) the s u b s t a n t i a l involvement of u n i v e r s i t i e s i n t h i s area of r e s e a r c h , and ( 3 ) t h e product i o n of s u b s t a n t i a l numbers of new h i g h l y t r a i n e d p e o p l e f o r t h i s work. N S F does n o t p l a n t o and " w i l l n o t d u p l i c a t e
  33. 33. 29 research performed b y m i s s i o n a g e n c i e s , b u t w i l l s u p p o r t r e s e a r c h i n t h o s e m u l t i - d i s c i p l i n e areas which w i l l supplement o r e x t e n d o t h e r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h a l r e a d y underway and w i l l develop t h e n a t i o n ' s r e s o u r c e s of knowledge and manpower i n new and i m a g i n a t i v e a r e a s . " " The N S F r e s e a r c h program t o be conducted p r i m a r i l y a t u n i v e r s i t i e s and NCAR w i l l i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g areas of research: 1. Cloud Dynamics: B a s i c s t u d i e s w i l l be c o n t i n u e d on t h e motions of c l o u d s , and t h e e f f e c t s upon t h e i r growth or decay produced b y the release or a b s o r p t i o n of t h e h e a t of c o n d e n s a t i o n and h e a t of f u s i o n which may be produced o r induced b y n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l s t i m u l u s . These stuLies w i l l be c a r r i e d on t h r o u g h a c t u a l observat i o n s of c l o u d s i n t h e i r n a t u r a l environment, i n s i m c l a t i o n chambers i n the l a b o r a t o r y , o r b y t h e o r e t i c a l models u s i n g h i g h speed computers. 2. Ice Formation i n Clouds: The r o l e of t h e f o r m a t i o n of ice i n c l o u d s i n producing r a i n d r o p f o r m a t i o n w i l l be i n t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d . The mechanism whereby a t m o s p h e r i c n u c l e i , b o t h n a t u r a l and a r t i f i c i a l , become e f f e c t i v e i n f r e e z i n g supercooled d r o p l e t s w i l l be f u r t h e r s t u d i e d , and the importance of t h i s p r o c e s s i n c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h c o a l e s c e n c e and s u b l i m a t i o n w i l l be assessed. T h e means whereby ice c r y s t a l s grow t o h a i l s t o n e s i z e i n s e v e r e s t o r m s w i l l a l s o r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y as i t r e l a t e s t o p o s s i b l e c o n t r o l mechanisms. 3. Coalescence: The process whereby c l o u d p a r t i c l e s combine t o f o r m r a i n d r o p s i n warm c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d . The r e l a t i o n s h i p of t h i s p r o c e s s t o t h e q u a n t i t y and e f f e c t i v e n e s s of n a t u r a l o r a r t i f i c i a l l y i n t r o d u c e d c o n d e n s a t i o n n u c l e i w i l l be observed u s i n g a i r b o r n e * " C r i t i q u e b y Presenter" e n c l o s u r e t o June 2 8 , 1966, N S F l e t t e r t o H o m e r E. N e w e l l s i g n e d b y P.H. Wyckoff, Program D i r e c t o r f o r Weather Modification.
  34. 34. 30 i n s t r u m e n t a t i o n i n t h e f i e l d , i n c l o u d chambers o r c l o u d tunnels i n the laboratory, or by t h e o r e t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s T h e c o n t r i b u t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l u s i n g mathematical models. f o r c e s t o c o a l e s c e n c e p r o c e s s e s w i l l a l s o be s t u d i e d . 4. Cloud E l e c t r i f i c a t i o n : The mechanism of c h a r g e g e n e r a t i o n i n c l o u d s w i l l be s t u d i e d i n n a t u r a l c l o u d s c o n t a i n i n g e i t h e r s u p e r c o o l e d w a t e r o r ice. The e f f e c t of f r e e z i n g of c l o u d d r o p l e t s on the o r i e n t a t i o n and l o c a t i o n of charge c e n t e r s w i l l be observed. The e f f e c t of charge t r a n s f e r upon t h e s t r u c t u r e and dynamics of t h e cloud before and a f t e r l i g h t n i n g s t r o k e f o r m a t i o n w i l l be a s s e s s e d . 5 . Computer A n a l y s i s : Advances w i l l be made i n computer t e c h n o l o g y i n t h e u n i v e r s i t i e s and a t NCAR t o p e r m i t m o r e a c c u r a t e mathematical modeling of t h e l a r g e s c a l e motions of t h e e a r t h ' s atmosphere l e a d i n g t o the e v a l u a t i o n of p o s s i b l e p r a c t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s f o r a more d e s i r a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n of m o i s t u r e b e a r i n g a i r masses o v e r drought areas o r r e g i o n s of p r e c i p i t a t i o n e x c e s s . The accompanying long-term changes i n c l i m a t i c s t r u c t u r e w i l l also be c a r e f u l l y c o n s i d e r e d . Socio-Economic, Leqal, and E c o l o q i c a l Consequences of Weather and Climate M o d i f i c a t i o n : The recommendations of t h e N S F S p e c i a l Commission on Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n t o assess t h e s o c i a l , economic, l e g a l and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n upon s o c i e t y w i l l be t h e o b j e c t o f i n t e n s i v e r e s e a r c h i n o r d e r t o i s o l a t e and e v a l u a t e t h o s e c r i t i c a l f a c t o r s which w i l l produce the most s i g n i f i c a n t impact upon s o c i e t y due t o t h e s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i c a t i o n of weather and c l i m a t e m o d i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s b y mission a g e n c i e s . 6. The u n i v e r s i t y r e s e a r c h i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n t o be supported b y NSF p r o v i d e s t h e primary mechanism f o r producing t h e numbers of t r a i n e d s c i e n t i s t s t h a t the t o t a l program w i l l require. E x c e s s i v e f u n d i n g from NSF, however, would
  35. 35. 31 monopolize a major s o u r c e of q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l t h a t t h e I recommend, t h e r e f o r e , o t h e r agency programs must r e l y on. a f u n d i n g l e v e l f o r NSF s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t a b o u t h a l f of what NSF e s t i m a t e s t o be t h e t o t a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e academic community i n t h e area of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i n a d d i t i o n t o a c t i v i t i e s a t NCAR. T h i s l e v e l of s u p p o r t would c l e a r l y p e r m i t NSF t o fund programs a d e q u a t e l y t h a t a r e now b e i n g "stretched" and would p r o v i d e t h e s t i m u l u s needed t o b e t t e r s a t i s f y t h e NSF program s t a t e d above. I recommend f u r t h e r , because of t h e fundamental importance of a c h i e v i n g t h e three o b j e c t i v e s as e a r l y as p o s s i b l e , t h a t t h e N S F b u d g e t be i n c r e a s e d immediately t o the l e v e l s s u g g e s t e d above. Capital Facilities I s u p p o r t , i n g e n e r a l , the agency p r o p o s a l s f o r e x t e n s i v e c a p i t a l f a c i l i t i e s which are n e c e s s a r y t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a r c h and development a s w e l l as o p e r a t i o n a l m i s s i o n s . Such f a c i l i t i e s i n c l u d e a i r c r a f t , e x t e n s i v e f i e l d i n s t a l l a t i o n s c o n s i s t i n g of m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e n s o r networks and d a t a a n a l y s i s f a c i l i t i e s , l a r g e l a b o r a t o r y i n s t a l l a t i o n s (cloud chambers, e t c . ) , and h i g h s p e e d , l a r g e - c a p a c i t y d i g i t a l computers f o r modeling of a t m o s p h e r i c p r o c e s s e s . A l l o c a t i o n of f a c i l i t i e s s h o u l d be b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p r i n c i p l e s : If a major f a c i l i t y s e r v e s a s p e c i a l missiono r i e n t e d purpose and f u l l - t i m e u s e can be j u s k i f i e d f o r t h a t purpose, the f a c i l i t y s h o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y t h e s p e c i f i c e l e m e n t of t h e agency charged w i t h t h a t mission. 1. For example: Small a i r c r a f t and f i e l d sites f u l l y used by t h e Department of A g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e i r l i g h t n i n g s u p p r e s s i o n m i s s i o n should be e s t a b l i s h e d and o p e r a t e d b y the Department of I n general, A g r i c u l t u r e a s p a r t of t h a t m i s s i o n .
  36. 36. 32 radiosonde b a l l o o n s , small-scale l a b o r a t o r y and computing f a c i l i t i e s , and i n d i v i d u a l a i r c r a f t should be c o n t a i n e d i n the s p e c i f i c m i s s i o n s where t h e y are needed. These c o n s i d e r a t i o n s are r e f l e c t e d i n my conc l u s i o n s and recommendations s e t f o r t h i n the preceding s e c t i o n s , 2. If a f a c i l i t y i s n o t used f o r one s p e c i f i c m i s s i o n , b u t can be j u s t i f i e d on a f u l l - t i m e use b a s i s f o r g e n e r a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n purposes by one s i n g l e agency, t h a t agency should e s t a b l i s h and o p e r a t e t h e f a c i l i t y . For example: I s u p p o r t t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n of a p p r o p r i a t e a i r c r a f t and f a c i l i t i e s b y t h e Department of I n t e r i o r t o e x e c u t e t h e i r p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation m i s s i o n , I a l s o s u p p o r t the u l t i mate e s t a b l i s h m e n t b y ESSA of a g e n e r a l purpose f l e e t of a i r c r a f t f o r u s e i n t h a t a g e n c y ' s d i v e r s i f i e d R&D and m i s s i o n programs. 3 . I f a f a c i l i t y is f o r general-purpose use, b u t i s so e x t e n s i v e t h a t f u l l - t i m e u s e c a n n o t be j u s t i f i e d b y a s i n g l e agency, t h e n t h e u s e of t h e f a c i l i t y w i l l have t o be s h a r e d b y the a g e n c i e s and t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r i t s e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n s h o u l d be a s s i g n e d on a case-by-case basis. S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e major f i e l d s i t e s , large c l o u d chambers, large-scale computers, and large-scale integrated f l y i n g l a b o r a t o r i e s f a l l i n t o t h i s category .
  37. 37. 33 In assigning responsibility for these facilities consideration also should be given to their use by individual agencies for purposes other than weather modification. I recommend that ESSA's proposed program for field facilities, in addition to the Norman, Oklahoma facility, be conducted with due regard for the mission needs of the Department of Interior. Specifically, the first step in this expansion should be a general purpose field facility in the Northeastern United States. ESSA should establish and operate the site not only for ESSA's research, but also in collaboration with the Department of the Interior, and the facility should be shared between at least thzse two agencies. The development of an understanding of the basic physics of cloud formation, dynamics, and dissipation is of prime importance in determining the nechanisms that can be used to modify clouds and cloud systems. As a weather simulation facility, the very large cloud chamber holds promise to be a powerful tool for such investigations. At the same time, prudence dictates that some experience be obtained with one.such chamber before any consideration is given to the construction of othcrs. Because such a facility bears a very strong relationship to university research programs and the training of research talent, I recommend that such a facility be established and operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research under NSF sponsorship. On the other hand, because of the importance to other agencies of the research to be done with the cloud chamber, I recommend that N S F associate the other agencies with NSF in the planning and design of the chamber,and in its use after construction.
  38. 38. 34 The p r e s e n t - d a y o p e r a t i o n i n modeling t e c h n i q u e s and numerical f o r e c a s t i n g p r o c e d u r e s i n d i c a t e s . t h a t a l a r g e - s c a l e , y e t t o be developed, computer may w e l l be r e q u i r e d . T h e p l a n n i n g of i n d u s t r y i n r e g a r d t o l a r g e computers needs t o be known. A l s o , t h e basic research of t h e programs recommended e a r l i e r i n t h i s r e p o r t should c l a r i f y t h e r o l e of such computers, and may indeed remove some of t h e need f o r them. H e r e a g a i n , however, I recommend a c a r e f u l p l a n n i n g phase. I a l s o recommend t h a t ESSA should e s t a b l i s h a n d o p e r a t e l a r g e - s c a l e d i g i t a l computers f o r t h e purpose of a p p l y i n g a t m o s p h e r i c c i r c u l a t i o n models t o weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . I t is e x p e c t e d t h a t e s t a b l i s h m e n t and o p e r a t i o n of these computing f a c i l i t i e s c o u l d be funded a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y by, a n d s h a r e d w i t h , o t h e r programs w i t h i n ESSA. While I f e e l t h a t a l a r g e mobile f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , f o r both weather and weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h i s important t o the l o n g r a n g e development of t h e s e f i e l d s , I a m unable t o determine a t t h i s t i m e what would be a r e a s o n a b l e program f o r t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t I b e l i e v e it would be w i s e t o of such a f a c i l i t y . f o l l o w a s t e p - b y - s t e p p r o c e s s of a r r i v i n g a t an optinum l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y , i n which the development and use b y i n d i v i d u a l a g e n c i e s of t h e i r own n e c e s s a r y smaller-scale f l i g h t f a c i l i t i e s would be v 3 l u a b l e l e a r n i n g steps. I feel t h a t the l a t t e r should not be n e g l e c t e d i n t h e h a s t e t o b r i n g a l a r g e - s c a l e f a c i l i t y i n t o being. I recommend t h a t work toward t h e l a r g e - s c a l e f l i g h t f a c i l i t y remain l a r g e l y i n t h e s t u d y and p l a n n i n g s t a g e f o r t h e t i m e being.
  39. 39. 35 C o o r d i n a t i o n and R e p o r t i n q A s i n d i c a t e d b y the p r e s e n t e a r l y p l a n n i n g , research and a p p l i c a t i o n s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e broad and v a r i e d i n s c o p e , and have t h e i n t e r e s t of many a g e n c i e s . Even a t t h i s s t a g e c o o r d i n a t i o n i s i m p e r a t i v e , and w i t h t h e p a s s a g e of time c o o r d i n a t i o n w i l l become e v e r more i m p o r t a n t t o sound p l a n n i n g and e f f e c t i v e e x e c u t i o n I t i s c l e a r t l i a t r e s e a r c h and a p p l i c a of t h e program. t i o n s o f weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l s e r v i c e s and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h ; i n d e e d , i t would be an a r t i f i c i a l i t y t o a t t e m p t t o s e p a r a t e them. Hence, I recommend t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r , who a l r e a d y h a s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c o o r d i n a t i o n and r e p o r t i n g i n t h i s a r e a of meteorology, undertake c o o r d i n a t i o n of t h e Natj.ona1 Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n of n a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s i n meteorology; B y " c o o r d i n a t i o n " I mean l a r g e l y " c o r r e l a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g documenting and t a b u l a t i n g i n one p l a c e , and a n a l y z i n g e x i s t i n g government program a c t i v i t y , prov i d i n g f o r a l l concerned a c o n t i n u i n g v i s i b i l i t y o f t h e whole n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t . I t i s i n t e n d e d t o a s s i g n t h e same k i n d of r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r now h a s f o r meteorology. Such a w e l l o r g a n i z e d program of c e n t r a l c o r r e l a t i o n o f program a c t i v i t i e s may be e x p e c t e d t o l e a d t o agreements and arrangements among t h e a g e n c i e s on such t h i n g s a s j o i n t purchase of m a t e r i a l s and e q u i p ments, common s u p p o r t and use of f a c i l i t i e s , j o i n t f i e l d o p e r a t i o n s , e l i m i n a t i o n of u n d e s i r a b l e d u p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e It i s not intended e s t a b l i s h m e n t of o b s e r v i n g n e t s , e t c . t o g i v e t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r program p l a n n i n g o r c o n t r o l . These would c o n t i n u e t o be t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s and under t h e The o v e r a l l r e s u l t would be an e f f e c t i v e l y r e v i e w of I C A S . c o o r d i n a t e d program.
  40. 40. 36 I also f e e l t h a t t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology should be a s s i g n e d t h e t a s k of p r e p a r i n g and s u b m i t t i n g an a n n u a l r e p o r t on n a t i o n a l w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . T h i s r e p o r t i n g assignment i s a t p r e s e n t by law g i v e n t o t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e Foundation. I b e l i e v e t h a t i t i s d e s i r a b l e t o r e l i e v e N S F of t h i s burden. For o n e t h i n g , t h e p r i n c i p a l f u t u r e of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s i s d i r e c t e d toward a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h and o p e r a t i o n s , which a r e n o t and should n o t be i n t h e mainstream of N S F ' s r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s f o r b a s i c research. Secondly, a s h a s a l r e a d y been p o i n t e d o u t , weather m o d i f i c a t i o n r e s e a r c h and o p e r a t i o n s a r e i n e x t r i c a b l y interwoven w i t h meteorol o g i c a l s e r v i c e and s u p p o r t i n g r e s e a r c h . Requiring t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology t o r e p o r t on t h e n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t , t h e r e f o r e , a p p e a r s t o be a n a t u r a l s t e p . R e q u l a t i o n and C o n t r o l A s b r o u g h t o u t c l e a r l y by t h e NSF S p e c i a l Commission Reports ( R e f s . 2 and 3 ) , t h e s u b j e c t of r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l i n weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s a complex and u r g e n t one. I do n o t f e e l t h a t I can recommend a s p e c i f i c o r g a n i z a t i o n t o be a s s i g n e d t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n a c t i v i ties. I do, however, have a few r e l a t e d recommendations. I f e e l v e r y s t r o n g l y t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body m u s t n o t be one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s p a r t i c i p a t i n g i n t h e N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program. To assign t h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o one of t h e s e a g e n c i e s would immediately g e n e r a t e c o n f l i c t s of i n t e r e s t , sow t h e seeds of d i s s e n s i o n , and doom t h e e f f o r t s a t r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l t o e n d l e s s f r E s t r a t i o n .
  41. 41. 37 I f e e l t h a t t h e r e g u l a t i n g body s h o u l d n o t be t h e I n t e r d e p a r t m e n t a l C o m m i t t e e f o r Atmospheric Sciences (ICAS). I n m view, t h e r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n y w i l l be a f u l l - t i m e t a s k for a modest s t a f f of p e o p l e , p a r t i c u l a r l y , as t h e n a t i o n a l weather m o d i f i c a t i o n e f f o r t i n c r e a s e s and as a c t i v i t i e s become i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n scope. I C A S i s i n no p o s i t i o n t o undertake such a f u l l - t i m e assignment. Moreover, many of t h e c o n f l i c t - o f - i n t e r e s t problems t h a t a r i s e i n t h e case of a s s i g n i n g t h e f u n c t i o n t o one of t h e o p e r a t i n g a g e n c i e s would a l s o e x i s t i n such an assignment t o ICAS. were t h e O f f i c e of t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r f o r Meteorology m o r e c l e a r l y s e p a r a t e from ESSA, and perhaps even from the Department of Commerce, one might a s s i g n I feel very t h i s t a s k t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator. s t r o n g l y , however, t h a t the p r e s e n t r e l a t i o n s between t h e F e d e r a l C o o r d i n a t o r I s o f f i c e and ESSA a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y a m b i v a l e n t t o make t h e assignment of t h e r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l f u n c t i o n t o t h e F e d e r a l Coordinator a n unwise s t e p . I n t e r n a t i o n a l Implications By a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 9 7 2 , when l a r g e - s c a l e weather m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments may w e l l be o p e r a t i o n a l , t h e y may be e x p e c t e d t o have c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r n a t i o n a l T h i s impact w i l l be twofold: impact. (1) A s experiments and o p e r a t i o n s become g e o g r a p h i c a l l y more e x t e n s i v e , t h e r e w i l l be a need f o r c o o r d i n a t i n g such o p e r a t i o n s w i t h n a t i o n s whose t e r r i t o r i e s a r e a f f e c t e d b y I f experiments t a k e p l a c e those o p e r a t i o n s . o v e r oceans there may be a c o n f l i c t w i t h w e a t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments b y o t h e r This i s e s s e n t i a l l y a q u e s t i o n nations. of r e g u l a t i o n and c o o r d i n a t i o n . It is n o t e x p e c t e d t h a t an i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r y body w i l l e x i s t by t h a t time. Indeed, e f f o r t s
  42. 42. 30 t o e s t a b l i s h an i n t e r n a t i o n a l agency t o d e a l w i t h weather m o d i f i c a t i o n , w h i l e w e l l i n t e n d e d , a r e l i k e l y t o be of dubious v a l u e and t o c r e a t e r a t h e r t h a n r e s o l v e p o l i t i c a l problems--if t h e e x p e r i e n c e i n n u c l e a r e n e r g y and s p a c e i s any guide . A more p r a c t i c a l and c o n s t r u c t i v e approach t o t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l problem--and one which s h o u l d pave r a t h e r t h a n b l o c k t h e way f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y experimentation--would be through b i l a t e r a l o r m u l t i l a t e r a l arrangements. I n t h e s e , t h e U . S . would s e e k t o e s t a b l i s h t h e mutual i n t e r e s t of n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s i n l a r g e - s c a l e experiments and t o engage them w i t h u s i n such experiments. I n t h i s way, w e c o u l d e d u c a t e a growing number of c o u n t r i e s , e s t a b l i s h our good f a i t h , i n c r e a s e t h e a c c e p t a b i l i t y of t h e program i n t h e e y e s of t h i r d c o u n t r i e s , d e m o n s t r a t e v a l u e s t r a n s c e n d i n g n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s , and w i n s u p p o r t where r e q u i r e d i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l forums which may a d d r e s s themselves on a p o l i t i c a l b a s i s t o t h e problems of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n . The o f f i c e f o r r e g u l a t i o n and c o n t r o l , d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , w i l l c e r t a i n l y have t o bz involved. N a t i o n a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w i l l have t o be c l a r i f i e d and d e f i n e d . T h i s , however, i s 6 s u b j e c t o u t s i d e t h e scope of m assignment. y B e n e f i t s and p o t e n t i a l p a y o f f s of weather m o d i f i c a t i o n experiments on a n a t i o n a l scale have a l r e a d y been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n t o t h i s r e p o r t . When a p p l i e d on a g l o b a l s c a l e t h e s e b e n e f i t s c o u l d i n c r e a s e g r e a t l y . For example, m o d i f i c a t i o n and d i v e r s i o n of t r o p i c a l s t o r m s o r typhoons i n t h e W e s t e r n P a c i f i c o r (2)
  43. 43. 39 I n d i a n Ocean would r e s u l t not o n l y i n t h e p r e v e n t i o n of p r o p e r t y damage s e v e r a l orders of magnitude g r e a t e r t h a n i n North America, b u t a l s o , and m o r e i m p o r t a n t l y , i n t h e s a v i n g of c o u n t l e s s numbers of human l i v e s . S i m i l a r b e n e f i t s would occur from p r e c i p i t a t i o n augmentation b y r e l i e v i n g l a r g e areas from t h e e f f e c t s of e x t e n s i v e droughts. Thus, v a l u a b l e e x p e r i e n c e gained i n i t i a l l y on a smaller, n a t i o n a l scale, may e v e n t u a l l y be important i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y , permitting us t o c o o p e r a t e w i t h and a s s i s t o t h e r c o u n t r i e s i n t h e s a v i n g of human l i v e s and p r o p e r t y , and This i n t h e enhancement of human w e l f a r e . i s a n o t h e r of the b e n e f i t s t h a t may r e s u l t from a v i g o r o u s n a t i o n a l program such a s t h a t d i s c u s s e d i n the preceding s e c t i o n s . Concludinq S t a t e m e n t I t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e plan I recommend herein would p e r m i t t h e development of a N a t i o n a l Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Program w i t h a s a t i s f a c t o r y forward t h r u s t a t a r e a l i s t i c pace, would provide i n t e r e s t e d a g e n c i e s w i t h a s u b s t a n t i a l and s a t i s f y i n g involvement, would make good u s e of t h e e x p e r i e n c e and i n t e r e s t of the v a r i o u s a g e n c i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a s s i g n e d agency r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s , can develop i n t o a w e l l - c o o r d i n a t e d and i n t e G r a t e d n a t i o n a l program, and s h o u l d a v o i d potential conflicts.
  44. 44. REFERENCES 1. Final Report of the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council; "Weather and Climate Modification, Problems and Prospects," Volume I- Summary and Recommendations, Volume II- Research and Development, Publication No. 1350, 1966 2. Report of the Special Commission on Weather Modification, National Science Foundation; "Weather and Climate Modification," Publication No. NSF 66-3, transmitted to NSF December 20, 1965 3. Report to the Special Commission on Weather Modification, National Science Foundation; "Weather Modification Law, Controls, Operations," Publication No. NSF 66-7 (no date)
  45. 45. APPENDICES I I1 I11 IV V VI Panel on Weather and Climate Modification to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council: Membership and Recommendations Special Commission on Weather Modification, National Science Foundation: Membership and Recommendations Report prepared by the ICAS Select Panel on Weather Modification; "Present and Future Plans of Federal Agencies in Weather-Climate Modification," dated June 20, 1966 Memorandum for Dr. Homer E. Newel1 from J. Herbert Hollomon, Chairman, ICAS, Subject: National Weather Modification Program, dated June 21, 1966 NASA Panel to Study Weather Modification Activities; Membership, Chronology of Meetings, and a Compilation of Supporting Material used by the Panel Budget Recommendations and Trends for a National Weather Modification Program
  46. 46. PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences NAS-NRC MEMBERSHIP RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDIX I 1-1
  47. 47. PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, NAS-NRC Gordon J. F. MacDonald, University of California at Los Angeles, Chairman Julian H. Bigelow, Institute for Advanced Study Jule G. Charney, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ralph E. Huschke, The RAND Corporation Francis S. Johnson, Southwest Center for Advanced Studies Heinz H. Lettau, University of Wisconsin Edward N. Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology James E. McDonald, University of Arizona *Joanne Simpson, Environmental Science Services Administration Joseph Smagorinsky, Environmental Science Services Administration Verner E. Suomi, University of Wisconsin Edward Teller, University of California at Livermore H. K. Weickmann, Environmental Science Services Administration E. J. Workman, University of Hawaii LIAISON MEMBERS Donald L. Gilman, Environmental Science Services Administration Edward P. Todd, National Science Foundation *Through 1964 1-2
  48. 48. PANEL ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODIFICATION to the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council AREAS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Administration and Funding of Research and Development in Weather Modification We recommend an immediate and thorough study of the administration and support of research and development in weather modification. We recommend that immediate steps be taken by the agencies to raise the support from the 1965 level of $ 5 million to at least $30 million by 1970. Projects in Stimulation of Precipitation We recommend the early establishment of several carefully designed, randomized, seeding experiments, planned in such a way as to permit assessment of the seedability of a variety of storm types. We recommend, therefore, that means be found, at federal expense if necessary, to secure much better evaluative reports on operational programs than are currently available. We recommend that attention be given immediately to careful monitoring and regulation of operational programs for weather modification. Re search Properties We recommend that planning be started immediately on all the following major field investigations: 1-3
  49. 49. a. A comprehensive exploration of hurricane energetics, leading to the development of a theoretical hurricane model and, subsequently, to hypotheses for hurricane modification. b. Measurement of tropical convection and other aspects of energy-exchange processes in the tropics. c. A comprehensive investigation of hailstorms. d. A coordinated set of projects to measure the dynamics and water budgets of a variety of precipitating storm types, It is clear that research throughout the atmospheric sciences will contribute to the goals of weather and climate modification. Of the research promising the most direct contributions, we recommend that highest priority be assigned to the following studies: e. 1. Studies of atmospheric water budgets, initially on vapor transport ovar those portions of the United States where the potential of cloud seeding is important, 2. Studies of boundary-layer energy-exchange processes, 3. Continued development of theoretical models of condensation and precipitation mechanisms, including the early incorporation of dynamical and electrical influences and the effects of changes in concentrations of condensation and freezing nuclei. 4. New and comprehensive studies of the meteorological effects of atmospheric pollution (including carbon dioxide) and urbanization. 1-4
  50. 50. Major Research Facilities and Support Systems We recommend that all necessary steps be taken to encourage the computer industry to respond to these prospective requirements. We recommend full U.S. support and leadership in promptly establishing an advanced global-observational system. We recommend that the civil research aircraft facilities be enlarged to include diversified types of aircraft and supporting data-gathering systems to meet the requirements placed upon them. Internal Aspects We recommend that the federal agency assigned major administrative responsibilities in this field also be empowered to deal with the complex international issues arising from weather-modification projects. 1-5
  51. 51. SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION National Science Foundation MEMBERSHIP RECOMMENDAT IONS APPENDIX I1 11-1
  52. 52. SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION National Science Foundation A. R. Chamberlain, Chairman, Vice President, Colorado State University John Bardeen, Vice Chairman, Departments of Physics and Electrical Engineering, University of Illinois William G. Colman, Executive Director, Advisory Commission on Intergovernmenta1 Re lations John C . Dreier, School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University Leonid Hurwicz, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota Thomas F. Malone, Second Vice President, Research Department, Travelers Insurance Company Arthur W. Murphy, Columbia University School of Law Sumner T Pike, Lubec, Maine . William S. von Arx, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Gilbert F. White, Department of Geograpny, University of Chicago Karl M. Wilbur, Department of Zoology, Duke University 11-2
  53. 53. SPECIAL COMMISSION ON WEATHER MODIFICATION National Science Foundation CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Progress and Prospecks in Weather and Climate Modification The Commission concludes that sound progress toward the technology of weather and climate modification must be based on four fundamental pursuits: a. Assessment and development of an understanding of natural climatic change. b. Assessment of the extent and development of the understanding of inadvertent modifications of weather and climate. c. Improvement of the process of weather prediction as a social benefit and as proof of scientific understanding of atmospheric behavior, and d. Development of means for deliberate intervention in atmospheric processes for weather and climate control and evaluation of their consequences. As steps toward these attainments the Corraissioii recommends tkat the following enterprises be fostered: i . Examination of the routes, rates, and reservoirs of water substance and energy exchanges in all aspects of the hydrologic cycle. 2. Investigation by numerical laboratory and field experiments of the dynamics of climate as a basic study for weather modification technology. 11-3
  54. 54. 3. Advancement of weather p r e d i c t i o n a s a proof of u n d e r s t a n d i n g , i n c l u d i n g s u p p o r t of t h i s e f f o r t by t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t of a g l o b a l weather o b s e r v a t i o n network . Broadenins 0 - t h e knowledge of c l o u d p h y s i c s and dynamics i n thc, l a b o r a t o r y and f i e l d , w i t h a t t e n t i o n t o wave phenomena and an e v a l u a t i o n of e l e c t r i c a l influences. 4. Study of t h e e f f e c t s of l a r g e s c a l e s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n b y numerical and l a b o r a t o r y models of t h e o c e a n i c and atmospheric g e n e r a l c i r c u l a t i o n , and of p r a c t i c a l means f o r s u r f a c e m o d i f i c a t i o n of t h e l a n d and s e a . 5. Study of t h e r a d i a t i v e e f f e c t s of changes i n t h e a t m o s p h e r i c composition and a l t e r a t i o n of i t s t r a n s parency t h a t urban growth and n e w forms of i n d u s t r y , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n or l a n d u s e may evoke. 6. B i o l o g i c a l Aspects of Weather M o d i f i c a t i o n Living t h i n g s a r e adapted t o t h e weather t h a t a c t u a l l y p r e v a i l s , and any change i n t h a t weather w i l l be g e n e r a l l y d e l e t e r i o u s t o them. The l a r g e s t c r e d i t item f o r weather m o d i f i c a t i o n i s l i k e l y t o he an i n c r e a s e i n primary p r o d u c t i o n of t h e d r i e r p a r t s ui' I:he land s u r f a c e through improvements i n r a i n f a l l . Even t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l s e a s o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of r a i n f a l l would l e a d t o more e f f i c i e n t farming o p e r a t i o n s . R e a l i z a t i o n of t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n would depend upon b e i n g a b l e t o modify t h e r a i n f a l l w i t h o u t major p e s t o u t b r e a k s and e x t i n c t i o n and d i s r u p t i o n of n a t u r a l communities. I t i s n o t c e r t a i n t h a t t h i s would be p o s s i b l e . 11-4

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