The Double-Edged Sword

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Why US Leadership in IPv6 is Critically Important
December 8, 2004 By Alex Lightman Cal–(IT)2 Scholar Chairman, IPv6 Summit, Inc. Founder, The 4G Society

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The Double-Edged Sword

  1. 1. The Double-Edged Sword ————————————— Why US Leadership in IPv6 is Critically Important December 8, 2004 By Alex Lightman Cal–(IT)2 Scholar Chairman, IPv6 Summit, Inc. Founder, The 4G Society
  2. 2. Thank you to our sponsors.
  3. 3. Welcome to the US IPv6 Summit 2004 • Opening Thoughts on IPv6 • What will be Built with IPv6 is Unimaginable…But Let’s Try Anyway • The Butterfly Effect of The Internet: • Tens of million$ > Tens of Trillion$ • “They did. We didn’t” • IPv6, 4G, and The Ever Smarter World • The Powers of IPv6
  4. 4. Opening Thoughts The primary reason to innovate with IPv6 is to improve human and machine information and communication experiences and thereby improve civilization for all humanity, for generations to come. • What we will build with IPv6 is unimaginable.
  5. 5. Is v6 Visualization Necessary for Large Scale v6 Capitalization? Almost Certainly. • If you had to draw the Internet what would it look like? (Assume you have days). • “You’ll see it when you believe it” & vice-versa. • We can imagine railroads, highways, stores, even armies. The Internet doesn’t get due credit because it’s very difficult to comprehend. • IPv6 is perhaps not debatable, and therefore not politically fundable by the US Congress, the only body that can appropriate new funds for projects that touch every area of national life, vs. reallocating funds. • Visualizations of the current Internet can open us to imagining new and vast possibilities.
  6. 6. Improve experience: Getting 4 relationships/customer “Bank of America experienced churn.” “We were stuck at 13 million customers because 3 million would join but 3 million would leave each year.” “We found that if and when people had four or more different relationships with B of A (checking, savings, credit card, bill paying, auto loan, mortgage) then our retention went UP and our churn for these people went way down. We now have 30 million customers.”
  7. 7. Trade Deficit Will Force US to Export Services! • Services: over 80% of US $12 T GDP. • Annual deficit of $600 B in goods (about one third oil, one third autos) • Annual surplus of $15 B in agriculture, $60 B in services • Biggest leverage: increase service exports from less than 1% to 5% of US services. • First New Internet Cluster has chance to double GDP as service export 4G hub.
  8. 8. America is the Biggest “Path Dependency” Beneficiary • Consumers around the world have an increased marginal propensity to consume new products from America if they already have a relationship with four or more other aspects of American culture • America’s products and services act as a “Package Deal” or bundle of habits for hundreds of millions of people around the world. • The Other Network of Networks: US dollar, television, air traffic control, English language, movies, celebrities, pension funds, equities, derivatives, oil exploration, oil refining, oil distribution, Internet, hardware, software, open source, web sites, sports, credit cards, credit ratings, NATO, Fortune 500, transfer pricing, Interpol, intelligence agencies, US military bases, precious metals, hotels, brands, soft drinks, fast food, books, magazines, architecture, resorts, video games, Constitution, retailers…
  9. 9. IPv6 Leadership Increases Path Dependency for Other Countries with US • Confidence Building Measures via Joint Standards, Testing, Implementation • Confidence Building Projects are an excellent opportunity for multilateral diplomacy. • Possible improved cooperation among and between militaries, air traffic control, universities, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, intranets, banking, brokerage, security cameras, media, oil visualization, command and control centers, law enforcement
  10. 10. US Federal IPv6 Investment is Price of Global Partnerships • US must have something to offer to others. • Japan and Europe have each invested tens of millions/year for over five years in IPv6 related activities, vs. only a few million in total for US. • US must invest at least $20 million in DoD IPv6 transition per year, with $10 billion for 2005- 2010 for the entire federal government (140 federal CIOs) to create 10 million jobs justified by the opportunity of IPv6.
  11. 11. Japan is the clear leader in IPv6, with most of the world’s users and products. Here are IPv6 enabled products from Panasonic as of Dec. 2004 (which have no US made counterparts). Cameras have 2 way VoIP! What can US offer Japan for v6? Camera Control Unit (Wireless Broadband Router) Auto On Sale Now! On Sale Now! Configuration IEEE 802.11 g/b Network cameras Coming BB-HCM311A 2005 Network Printer Pan & Tilt Pan & Tilt Wireless Outdoor Color Laser Indoor Printer* Pan & Tilt Pan, Tilt & 42x Outdoor Zoom * Prototype Contact: Alex Ramia, alexkr@pcla.panasonic.com
  12. 12. The Butterfly Effect of Federal Government: Making US Internet Success Story Project Air Force paid for Paul Baran (RAND) to conceptualize packet switching DARPA paid for fathers of the Internet to make first connections: ARPANET DARPA “tough love”: shutting off NCP packets 1 day in mid-1982, then 2 days in late 1982, then entirely by mid-1983 NSFNET funded 1985-1995 NCSA (also NSF) launches Mosaic, Apache
  13. 13. The Greatest ROI in History • Tens of millions put into the Internet by several difference US government agencies off and on, 1961-1995 (roughly $50 million total) • During 1990s, economic boom that added 27 million jobs (vs. 0 net in Europe) and increased US federal revenue from $1 trillion to $2 trillion/yr. • Economists say Internet accounted for 1/3rd to 1/2 of GDP growth, so $300-500 BILLION/year, giving an ROI of up to a million percent annually. • DoD is actually a profit center and generated a return equivalent to its entire budget via net’s value added impact.
  14. 14. US Gov’t as Alpha Prosumer = Repeat Successes for 228 years! • Constituting event: Stamp Act, tax on printing, led to federal postal system, subsidized delivery of news, magazines. • US federal support/guidance/purchasing = success for telegraph, telephone, railroads (early years), electricity, oil, satellites, highways, ports, airports, aerospace, satellites, launch facilities, black & white TV, Internet… • Lack of fed leadership = US decline/failure: metric system, 2G (GSM), 3G, color television, broadband. US dollar and IPv6 next victims?
  15. 15. Constitutional Justification for Funding IPv6 (1/2) Section 8 has 18 clauses. Of these three relate directly or indirectly to federal government involvement in IPv6. • Clause 5: To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and Measures; • Clause 7: To establish Post Offices and post Roads; • Clause 8: To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;
  16. 16. Constitutional Justification for Funding IPv6 (2/2) • We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
  17. 17. They did. We didn’t. (1/12) • If the US DoD does not properly fund the IPv6 transition and protect it from cannibalization, the DoD IPv6 transition will not be complete by 2008. • If the DoD does not look like it will meet its own mandate, the political capital will not be sufficient for OMB to get a federal mandate for IPv6 within the decade.
  18. 18. They did. We didn’t. (2/12) • If there is no federal mandate for IPv6, the US cannot lead in IPv6 compared to countries that do have or soon will have federal mandates with sufficient funding. • China, Japan, Korea, India, and the European Union are eager to compete with the US and have trade surpluses with the US to fund their transitions.
  19. 19. They did. We didn’t. (3/12) • If the US does not lead in IPv6, the US cannot lead in the Internet. • If the US does not lead in the Internet, it cannot lead in Information Technology • If the US does not lead in Information Technology, it cannot lead in high technology.
  20. 20. They did. We didn’t. (4/12) • If the US does not lead in high technology, it will be difficult to lead the world in anything except for deficits. • We will lose opportunities in satellites, automotive, energy, toys, apparel, food, 4G wireless, and a broadband- enable service export boom
  21. 21. They did. We didn’t. (5/12) • If the US does not lead in anything but deficits, its economy will shrink even as its population increases.
  22. 22. They did. We didn’t. (6/12) • Thus, if the DoD does not properly fund IPv6 from 2005 to 2008, it will not be able to do much of anything a decade or two down the road, and be less than half as strong relative to its rivals as it is today.
  23. 23. They did. We didn’t. (7/12) • Imagine a future in which the US treats lPv6 like we did the metric system or wireless. • World population will be 7.2 billion and world GDP will be $72 trillion/year • We will make up 5% of the world’s population (360 million) and 15% of the world’s GDP. • Greater China will make up 22% of the world’s population and 22% of the world’s economy
  24. 24. They did. We didn’t. (8/12) • The US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency, and oil will cost over 100 Euros a barrel. US manufacturing will be nearly eliminated. The US will have a smaller economy and a smaller employed workforce than it does today, with a larger population and a vastly larger retired and unemployed population than today. ($10.8 trillion economy, 160 million employed)
  25. 25. They did. We didn’t. (9/12) • The largest oil, coal, steel, automobile, computer, mobile phone, construction, banking, insurance, brokerage, and aerospace companies will all be Chinese. The largest software, security, temp worker, film, television, music, and game companies will all be Indian. The largest consumer electronics companies will be combinations of Japanese/Korean design and engineering with Chinese manufacturing.
  26. 26. They did. We didn’t. (10/12) • Hundreds of millions of Americans will walk around with 4G personal communicators that give 100 Mb/sec. with nearly no costs for bandwidth or content. Royalties will go to owners of entertainment libraries formerly owned by Americans and sold to Asians and Europeans. Chinese intelligence will be listening in, while US intelligence agencies are locked out and unable to pierce the 2K bit encryption.
  27. 27. They did. We didn’t. (11/12) • The Internet will be run by the ITU, which means it is controlled by China and to a lesser extent by India, which can shut it down in whole or part to advantage their companies and militaries. • China will have claimed and started to mine both the moon and Mars and have military bases on both that allow it, uniquely, to have a third strike capability, which it will threaten to use.
  28. 28. They did. We didn’t. (12/12) • America will be a net agricultural importer, a net importer of manufactured goods, and a net importer of data, entertainment, and services, with fewer friends to back it up internationally. • America will be a case study in under- funding the Internet and strategic inflection points, a mistake that the new super- powers will never make with the fall of the US as a big lesson. (End)
  29. 29. Service Provider Revenues $$$ Total Revenue Old Sources New Sources Time
  30. 30. Cambrian Explosion Bacteria ☺ Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Complex Environmental Interaction Pseudo-Random Search Evolution Insects Invertebrates Selection/Emergence/ Multicellularity Phase Space Collapse/ Discovered MEST Collapse Development Vertebrates 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans.
  31. 31. Wanted! IPv6 Prosumer Innovators “We need people who create supply and demand for new IPv6 services”. Ministry of Science and Technology, Madrid IPv6 Summit. • George Washington Carver (100 uses for peanut, entire dinner, SW) • Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct current, AC, and many ways to use it) • Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC access to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The importance of CREATIVITY and VISION!
  32. 32. 11 Powers of IPv6 Leaders and Prosumers 1. Power of Numbering and Sequencing 2. Power of Ranking 3. Power of Naming 4. Power of Leading 5. Power of Granularity 6. Power of Bounding 7. Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to 5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip) 8. Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions 9. Power of Containerized Cargo 10. Power of Tight Targeting 11. Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
  33. 33. The Information Foundation • Just as the foundation of a building (and use of brick vs. structural steel) determines how high it can go, the information foundation (structure of networks) determines how high civilization can reach. • IPv6 is infrastructure! • IPv4 is straining to support just one application like the World Wide Web. IPv6 could support at least ten applications the size of the WWW. • Like putting round peg in round hole: how do we drop entire industries into the expanding IPv6, creating commercial explosions?
  34. 34. ATLICATIONS the size of WWW • Atlas application = supports the world 1. Voice ($500 billion annually) 2. Radio (add personalization, location) 3. Television (Every show ever made) 4. Medical Monitoring 5. Simulations 6. High resolution Location Based Services, including security 7. 4G wireless broadband
  35. 35. The Next Logical Step In Wireless Data Vehicular $0.45 - $20/Mbyte $0.02-$0.07/Mbyte OFDM?, UW B? Dynamic Chaos? GSM, cdmaOne GPRS, EDGE W-CDMA, cdma2000 High-Mobility PDC Multimedia Data, Location Services, Augmented Reality, Music/Video, Voice over IP, Remote Control 2G 2.5G 3G Software Defined Radio Opportunity Pedestrian 802.11b 802.11a 4G (2005 –2010) Low Mobility DECT/ Cordless Bluetooth Portable Phones Smart Antennas 56K Modem s E1/T1 Line s DSL/Cable Fixed Broadband Fixed Wireless Access T3 Lines 0.01 0.1 1.0 10 100 Information Rate (Mbps) Page 13 © BellSouth Cellular Corp 1999 All rights reserved
  36. 36. The 4G Technology Menu IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space) P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration, sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility Broadband Wireless Technologies OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION] Smart Antennas and spatial processing Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems] Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile communications Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded processors Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors Wearable computer peripherals Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various input devices, wearable computer clothing
  37. 37. Multiservice Overlay Networks Today Future Single-service networks Multi-service networks Services Content Content Servers Communcationi Control Fixed Telephony LAN (Data) Radio/TV IP Backbone Network GSM Access Access Access Transport, Switching & Access Networks
  38. 38. 4G as the Integrator Fourth Satellite Broadband Generation Personal S-UMTS Body-LAN Satellite DVB-S Area Networks High Altitude Platform DVB-T Broadband Bluetooth DAB IPv6 W-LAN EDGE Broadband W-LAN Local Area Networks Broadcasting GPRS FWA IR UMTS ++ MBS 60 MWS GSM Fixed Wireless Access UMTS xMDS MBS 40 Wireless Local Loop Cellular Quasi-Cellular ©JPER
  39. 39. Seven Wonders of the IPv6 World • Terra Sapiens: create “us” as superorganism. • Earth, Incorporated: all of us shareholders • 4GEO: Give every square meter its own unique IPv6 address, then link to GIS software, GPS, and allow posting messages. • The World Water Web: put RF sensors almost everywhere to signal Wet, Hot, etc. and get real time measure in liters. • The Great Replication: 3D copy of everything • The Great Augmentation: sharing POV • The Ultimate Market: anyone buy, sell, anything.
  40. 40. Image Credits: 1. Nicheworks http://www.bell-labs.com/user/gwills/NICHEguide/niche.html composited with Cone Trees and Disk Trees http://www.parc.xerox.com/istl/projects/uir/ 2. Starlight http://starlight.pnl.gov/ 3. Web Stalker http://www.backspace.org/iod/ composited with Mapping the Web Infome http://dma.sjsu.edu/jevbratt/lifelike/ 4. Walrus Visualisation Tool http://www.caida.org/tools/visualization/walrus/ 5. Web Traffic Project http://www.cdi.gsd.harvard.edu/research.cfm?id=15 6. Cobot http://www.cc.gatech.edu/fac/Charles.Isbell/projects/cobot/map.html 7. Internert Industry Partnerships http://www.orgnet.com/netindustry.html 8. Warriors of the Net http://www.warriorsofthe.net/ 9. Coast http://www.fractalus.com/steve/stuff/ipmap/ 10. Plankton http://www.caida.org/tools/visualization/plankton/ 11. Spamdemic http://www.cluelessmailers.org/spamdemic/index.html 12. Skitter http://www.caida.org/analysis/topology/as_core_network/
  41. 41. May 23 - 26, 2005 Hyatt Regency, Reston, VA Organized by The IPv6 Association in collaboration with IPv6 Summit, Inc. For more information visit www.usipv6.com or contact Alex Lightman alex@usipv6.com

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