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Social Dimension of Climate Change

Social Dimension of Climate Change



Presented by Dr. Pulhin at the Mindanao Conference on Climate Change

Presented by Dr. Pulhin at the Mindanao Conference on Climate Change



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    Social Dimension of Climate Change Social Dimension of Climate Change Presentation Transcript

    • Social Dimensions of Climate Change Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D. Professor and UP Scientist II UP Los Baños Mindanao Climate Change Conference June 10 –12, 2009 Marco Polo Hotel, Davao City
    • Outline of Presentation The Philippines and Climate Change – A Recap Social Impacts of Climate Change The Case of Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed Summary and Implications 2
    • Projected Climate Change in RP • More prominent ENSO events and a shift in seasonal cycle • Increase chances of summer droughts and floods • Increase in tropical cyclone intensities is suggested • Potential sea level rise
    • The Philippines and Climate Change From 1951 to 2006, recor ds show that warming has occurred in the country
    • The Philippines and Climate Change Occurrence of ENSO events was observed to become more frequent since 1980 Legend: 3 = strong El Niño event 2 = moderate El Niño event 1 = weak El Niño event -3 = strong La Niña event -2 = moderate La Niña event -1 = weak La Niña event 0 = no El Niño or La Niña event
    • The Philippines and Climate Change An increasing trend on the number of strong typhoons ( > 185 kph wind speed) hitting the Philippines
    • The Philippines and Climate Change • Rising sea levels, one of the indicators that climate change is occurring • Annual mean sea level is observed to increase since 1960s while for the rest of the stations, sea level rise occurred in 1970s
    • (Sources: GRID Arendal/ Pachauri, 2003) General CC Impacts
    • Key Observed C-related Impacts in RP Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons (1975-2000) • Annual deaths of 593 • 4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M) • 3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M) • Strong typhoons + excessive rains = landslides
    • Key Observed CC Impacts in RP
    • CC: Could exacerbate water scarcity Streamflow • Increase average annual runoff and water availability in some wet areas by 10-40%
    • Could exacerbate water scarcity • Exacerbates water stress due to increasing demand • 10-30% decrease in dry areas which are already water stressed
    • Could exacerbate water related extreme events Droughts Droughts
    • Could exacerbate water related extreme events 2004 Floods & Landslides in Aurora and Quezon
    • Could exacerbate water related extreme events Flashfloods
    • Could exacerbate water related extreme events Landslides
    • Impacts on children, their families and communities: • A widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human settlements from both increased heavy precipitation events and sea level rise. 17
    • Could exacerbate water related extreme events Other Disasters Triggered by Excessive Rains: Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster in 2003 Camiguin flashfloods in 2001 Payatas garbage slide in 2000 Cherry Hill tragedy in 1999 Ormoc catastrophe in 1991
    • Could decrease crop production In seasonally dry areas 1-2 OC - rise in temperature could lead to Increase in irrigation requirement Decrease in freshwater availability Damages due to floods, droughts, typhoons Affects flowering of plants Decrease in productivity of rice, corn as in 1983 and 1998
    • Could decrease crop production Corn Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007
    • Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 290415 Region 7 245606 Region 9 183783 Region 10 395293 Region 11 198268 Region 12 472838 ARMMM 300679
    • Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 290415 Region 7 245606 Region 9 183783 Region 10 395293 Region 11 198268 Region 12 472838 ARMMM 300679
    • Impacts on children, their families and communities: • Increase in food competition and hunger . 23
    • • Frequent occurrence of forest fires 24
    • Could increase food scarcity and hunger • Subsistence farmers will be most vulnerable • Inequitable access to food will exacerbate impact on poor • Poor farmers will be less able to adapt
    • Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems • Dry spell affected 20.6% of brackishwater fishponds in 1998 • Milkfish and seaweed production dropped by 10-80% • Fishkills and high mortality of cultured giant clams in 1997-98 ENSO
    • Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C could cause • Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification • Massive coral bleaching in 1998
    • Sea level rise could damage mangroves, coastal areas and corals Sea level rise will: • Extend salt water intrusion and affect groundwater • Affect mangroves • Inundate coastal farms • Increase flood risks for settlement areas and infrastructure
    • Could increase incidence of vector and water borne diseases Dengue Malaria Cholera
    • Could affect livelihood of poor communities • Upland farming • Collection of forest products • Fishing • Logging • Handicrafts
    • • Adverse psycho-social impacts on children 31
    • Could mean poor Presidential Task Force on Climate Change access to basic needs and social services such as food, clothing, shelter, water, education
    • Bottom Line: Drag on economy and sustainable development •Loss of lives •Destroy infra •Loss of income and livelihood •More sickness •More conflict/ competition •Breakdown of local institutions •Poor to poorer
    • CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES IN PCW } 4 4 El Niño (1-3) or La Niña (-1 - -3) event El Niño (1-3) and La Niña (-1 - -3) event 3 3 2 2 El Nino 1 1 0 0 Normal } JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS -1 -1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -2 La Nina -3 -3 Source: PAGASA -4 -4 El Nino and La Nina events in the Philippines, 1980-1999. Year Year • Drought or El Nino events Floods from • Prolonged rains destructive typhoons • Delay in the onset of rainy season Dried river • Early onset of rainy season • Destructive typhoons
    • Summary of General Impacts of CV&E to Local Communities Areas of General concern Impacts Food availability (-) Crop yield (+) (-) Water availability (+) (-) Livelihood (-) Health (-) Infrastructure (-)
    • Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E Groups Impacts Degree of Vulnerability (-) Impacts Better-off ↓ production & Better coping farmers income; ↔ food, mechanism - low livelihood, health vulnerability “Little” ↓ production, Poor coping food, livelihood, mechanism – high farmers vulnerability health; more debt “Average” coping ↑ price of Employees mechanism – commodities moderately vul. Business- ↓ in sales “Average” coping persons mechanism – (small-scale) moderately vul.
    • Factors affecting vulnerability: 1. Geographic location 2. Socioeconomic factors - Farm income (+) - Household size (+) - High - Monthly food expenditures (-) - Moderate - Farm distance to market (+) - Number of organizations joined (+) - Low - Farm size (+) - GPS Points - Sex (women more vulnerable than men) - Ethnic affiliation (migrants more vulnerable) - Number of organizations joined (+) - Land ownership (-) 3. Contextual factors - Dependency on development Level of vulnerability by land use types and projects/programs location of vulnerable places as identified by local - Lack of enabling national policies communities (GPS points) and and institutional support - Inequitable social structure
    • Responses to Climate Change 39
    • Responding to Climate Change Adaptation increases resilience and capacity to cope with current and future changes in climate reduces adverse effects of climate change and capitalize on opportunities But maladaptation can exacerbate adverse impacts and further compound vulnerability
    • How should we respond to Climate Change? How about this? 41
    • Responses to Climate Change Or this? 42
    • Responses to Climate Change This? 43
    • Responses to Climate Change And this? 44
    • Really, HOW SHOULD WE RESPOND? 45
    • Adaptation Practices employed by households in PCW ALFONSO- PANTABANGAN CARRANGLAN MA. AURORA ADAPTATION PRACTICES CASTAÑEDA TOTAL (N=374) (N=137) (N=198) (N=17) (N=22) Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Reduce consumption 104 75.91 143 72.22 16 94.12 15 68.18 278 74.33 Pray or make offerings to Anito 88 64.23 126 63.64 10 58.82 16 72.73 240 64.17 Avail of loans/credit facility 79 57.66 119 60.10 10 58.82 13 59.09 221 59.09 Store food, firewood, medicine and water 70 51.09 120 60.61 7 41.18 19 86.36 216 57.77 Community and kinship ties 72 52.55 86 43.43 7 41.18 11 50.00 176 47.06 Off-farm work 49 35.77 60 30.30 5 29.41 8 36.36 122 32.62 Seek government/ NGO assistance 33 24.09 71 35.86 7 41.18 6 27.27 117 31.28 Treebelts/wind breaks/ Hedgerows 36 26.28 36 18.18 2 11.76 19 86.36 93 24.87 Crop diversification 39 28.47 42 21.21 6 35.29 4 18.18 91 24.33 Asset disposal 33 24.09 44 22.22 2 11.76 5 22.73 84 22.46 Forecast natural hazards/disasters based from community’s/ indigenous 16 11.68 9 4.55 8 36.36 33 8.82 traditional knowledge * multiple responses Source: Peras (2005)
    • Summary of Adaptation Practices of Various Socioeconomic Groups in PCW Socioecono- Examples of Perceived Recommendations mic Groups Adaptation Effectiveness High interest loan; Some effective; Establish cooperative; don’t plant vegetables allow entrance of imported Poor farmers others not along river bank; products; prioritize poor rotate irrigation water farmers in livelihood projects Average Plant vegetables Mostly Provide marketing along river bank; assistance/support; provide Farmers/ Effective Engage in other other sources of livelihood fisher folks sources of livelihood Employees/ Avail of government Mostly Institute “price watch” to loans; store food protect consumers from small Effective supply and other prices entrepreneurs farm inputs Rich farmers Store food grains & Effective Lend money to poor farmers farms inputs; lend with low interest money /farm inputs to poor farmers
    • Summary and Implications  Given the same climate stressors, vulnerability varies among different households and socioeconomic groups depending on: their access to production resources and other assets options to live or have their assets in less vulnerable areas effectiveness of adaptation strategies.  Broader societal, policy and institutional contexts can exacerbate the adverse impacts of extreme and variable climate that can compound the vulnerability of certain households/group(s).
    • Summary and Implications Poor people, women and children are generally more vulnerable to CV&E and have lesser capacity to adapt due to: lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural, and manufactured capital) past faulty development approach that created sense of dependency among local communities limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism that provides assistance to the poor inequitable social structure
    • Summary and Implications Households and socioeconomic groups in different ecosystems apply different strategies to reduce their present vulnerability to CV&E Some adaptation strategies are innovative and effective, however, some further contribute to their already vulnerable condition
    • Summary and Implications Integrated climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be based on sound science Highlights the necessity of action-research types of engagements Need to partner with academic and research institutions and related organizations like PAGASA
    • Summary and Implications Participatory impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments have the following benefits: Generates public awareness and interest on the issue Promotes dialogue with local communities Increases the chances of enhancing local adaptation Complements existing assessment methods like the use of vulnerability index and GIS application, thereby make the assessment more robust Strengthen research-policy interlink
    • Summary and Implications Addressing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity should include among others Creating responsive policies and programs that will reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity by building on experiences of local communities and institutions Targeting the poor and other more vulnerable groups in adaptation planning
    • Summary and Implications Addressing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity should include among others Building institutional capacity to anticipate and effectively respond to variable and extreme climate events Empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on unsustainable external support.
    • CONCLUSION 2007 IPCC Report concludes that: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal This has adverse impacts in both natural and human systems particularly the most vulnerable sectors – poor, women and children
    • 56
    • Everyone has an important role to play for this generation to take the second choice 57
    • Our future and the future of our children depends on how well we prepare and adapt to changing climate NOW!!!
    • Daghan Salamat! 59