0
Social Dimensions of
  Climate Change

    Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D.
    Professor and UP Scientist II
          UP Los Baños
...
Outline of Presentation
   The Philippines and Climate Change – A
   Recap
   Social Impacts of Climate Change
   The Case...
Projected Climate Change in RP

• More prominent ENSO events and a shift in
  seasonal cycle
• Increase chances of summer ...
The Philippines and Climate Change


                           From 1951
                           to
                  ...
The Philippines and Climate Change

                                                            Occurrence
               ...
The Philippines and Climate Change



                         An increasing
                         trend on the
       ...
The Philippines and Climate Change


• Rising sea
  levels, one of
  the indicators
  that climate
  change is
  occurring...
(Sources: GRID Arendal/
                Pachauri, 2003)




General CC Impacts
Key Observed C-related Impacts in RP

  Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons
                 (1975-2000)
• Annual deaths ...
Key Observed CC Impacts in RP
CC: Could exacerbate water scarcity



Streamflow
• Increase average annual runoff and
  water availability in some wet ar...
Could exacerbate water scarcity




• Exacerbates water stress due to
  increasing demand
• 10-30% decrease in dry areas
 ...
Could exacerbate water related extreme
                events
Droughts
Droughts
Could exacerbate water related extreme
                      events
2004 Floods & Landslides in
Aurora and Quezon
Could exacerbate water related extreme
                    events

Flashfloods
Could exacerbate water related extreme
                    events
Landslides
Impacts on children, their
        families and communities:




• A widespread increase in the risk of
  flooding for man...
Could exacerbate water related extreme
                  events

Other Disasters Triggered by Excessive
   Rains:
     Sou...
Could decrease crop production


In seasonally dry areas 1-2 OC - rise in
temperature could lead to
    Increase in irriga...
Could decrease crop production




Corn
 Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007
Could decrease crop production

Major Corn     Average
Producing    Annual Area
  Areas       Harvested
                 (...
Could decrease crop production
Major Corn     Average
Producing    Annual Area
  Areas       Harvested
                 (h...
Impacts on children, their
        families and communities:




• Increase in food competition and hunger
.              ...
• Frequent occurrence of forest fires




                                        24
Could increase food scarcity and hunger


• Subsistence farmers will be most
  vulnerable
• Inequitable access to food wil...
Could destroy marine and coastal
             ecosystems
• Dry spell affected 20.6% of
  brackishwater fishponds in 1998
•...
Could destroy marine and coastal
                ecosystems
Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C
could cause
   ...
Sea level rise could damage mangroves,
        coastal areas and corals

   Sea level rise will:
    • Extend salt water i...
Could increase incidence of vector and
        water borne diseases

               Dengue
               Malaria
        ...
Could affect livelihood of poor
        communities
    • Upland farming
    • Collection of forest products
    • Fishing...
• Adverse psycho-social impacts on children
                                              31
Could mean poor    Presidential Task Force
                   on Climate Change

access to basic
needs and social
services...
Bottom Line: Drag on economy and
             sustainable development

•Loss of lives
•Destroy infra
•Loss of income
 and ...
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES IN PCW


                                                                                ...
Summary of General Impacts of CV&E
to Local Communities
 Areas of            General
 concern             Impacts
 Food av...
Impacts and Vulnerability of Various
       Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E
Groups          Impacts              Degree of Vu...
LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L.
                  MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN
F.C. OTIC
        NORT
     ...
Factors affecting vulnerability:
  1. Geographic location                          2. Socioeconomic factors
              ...
Responses to Climate Change




                              39
Responding to Climate Change

Adaptation
 increases resilience and
 capacity to cope with current
 and future changes in c...
How should we respond to Climate Change?



                          How about this?




                                ...
Responses to Climate Change




                       Or this?




                                  42
Responses to Climate Change




         This?

                              43
Responses to Climate Change

                     And this?




                                 44
Really,
HOW SHOULD
WE RESPOND?




          45
Adaptation Practices employed by
                                       households in PCW
                                ...
Summary of Adaptation Practices of Various
          Socioeconomic Groups in PCW
Socioecono-     Examples of              ...
Summary and Implications
 Given the same climate stressors, vulnerability
  varies among different households and
  socio...
Summary and Implications
Poor people, women and children are
generally more vulnerable to CV&E and
have lesser capacity to...
Summary and Implications
Households and socioeconomic groups in
different ecosystems apply different
strategies to reduce ...
Summary and Implications
Integrated climate change impact,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments
should be based on sou...
Summary and Implications
Participatory impact, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments have the
following benefits:
  Gen...
Summary and Implications
Addressing vulnerability and enhancing
adaptive capacity should include
among others
  Creating r...
Summary and Implications
Addressing vulnerability and enhancing
adaptive capacity should include
among others
  Building i...
CONCLUSION
2007 IPCC Report
 concludes that:
 Warming of the climate system is
 unequivocal
 This has adverse impacts in b...
56
Everyone has an
important role to play
for this generation to
take the second choice




                         57
Our future and the future of
our children depends on how
well we prepare and adapt to
 changing climate NOW!!!
Daghan
Salamat!




           59
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Social Dimension of Climate Change

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Presented by Dr. Pulhin at the Mindanao Conference on Climate Change

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Transcript of "Social Dimension of Climate Change"

  1. 1. Social Dimensions of Climate Change Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D. Professor and UP Scientist II UP Los Baños Mindanao Climate Change Conference June 10 –12, 2009 Marco Polo Hotel, Davao City
  2. 2. Outline of Presentation The Philippines and Climate Change – A Recap Social Impacts of Climate Change The Case of Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed Summary and Implications 2
  3. 3. Projected Climate Change in RP • More prominent ENSO events and a shift in seasonal cycle • Increase chances of summer droughts and floods • Increase in tropical cyclone intensities is suggested • Potential sea level rise
  4. 4. The Philippines and Climate Change From 1951 to 2006, recor ds show that warming has occurred in the country
  5. 5. The Philippines and Climate Change Occurrence of ENSO events was observed to become more frequent since 1980 Legend: 3 = strong El Niño event 2 = moderate El Niño event 1 = weak El Niño event -3 = strong La Niña event -2 = moderate La Niña event -1 = weak La Niña event 0 = no El Niño or La Niña event
  6. 6. The Philippines and Climate Change An increasing trend on the number of strong typhoons ( > 185 kph wind speed) hitting the Philippines
  7. 7. The Philippines and Climate Change • Rising sea levels, one of the indicators that climate change is occurring • Annual mean sea level is observed to increase since 1960s while for the rest of the stations, sea level rise occurred in 1970s
  8. 8. (Sources: GRID Arendal/ Pachauri, 2003) General CC Impacts
  9. 9. Key Observed C-related Impacts in RP Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons (1975-2000) • Annual deaths of 593 • 4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M) • 3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M) • Strong typhoons + excessive rains = landslides
  10. 10. Key Observed CC Impacts in RP
  11. 11. CC: Could exacerbate water scarcity Streamflow • Increase average annual runoff and water availability in some wet areas by 10-40%
  12. 12. Could exacerbate water scarcity • Exacerbates water stress due to increasing demand • 10-30% decrease in dry areas which are already water stressed
  13. 13. Could exacerbate water related extreme events Droughts Droughts
  14. 14. Could exacerbate water related extreme events 2004 Floods & Landslides in Aurora and Quezon
  15. 15. Could exacerbate water related extreme events Flashfloods
  16. 16. Could exacerbate water related extreme events Landslides
  17. 17. Impacts on children, their families and communities: • A widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human settlements from both increased heavy precipitation events and sea level rise. 17
  18. 18. Could exacerbate water related extreme events Other Disasters Triggered by Excessive Rains: Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster in 2003 Camiguin flashfloods in 2001 Payatas garbage slide in 2000 Cherry Hill tragedy in 1999 Ormoc catastrophe in 1991
  19. 19. Could decrease crop production In seasonally dry areas 1-2 OC - rise in temperature could lead to Increase in irrigation requirement Decrease in freshwater availability Damages due to floods, droughts, typhoons Affects flowering of plants Decrease in productivity of rice, corn as in 1983 and 1998
  20. 20. Could decrease crop production Corn Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007
  21. 21. Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 290415 Region 7 245606 Region 9 183783 Region 10 395293 Region 11 198268 Region 12 472838 ARMMM 300679
  22. 22. Could decrease crop production Major Corn Average Producing Annual Area Areas Harvested (ha) Region 2 290415 Region 7 245606 Region 9 183783 Region 10 395293 Region 11 198268 Region 12 472838 ARMMM 300679
  23. 23. Impacts on children, their families and communities: • Increase in food competition and hunger . 23
  24. 24. • Frequent occurrence of forest fires 24
  25. 25. Could increase food scarcity and hunger • Subsistence farmers will be most vulnerable • Inequitable access to food will exacerbate impact on poor • Poor farmers will be less able to adapt
  26. 26. Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems • Dry spell affected 20.6% of brackishwater fishponds in 1998 • Milkfish and seaweed production dropped by 10-80% • Fishkills and high mortality of cultured giant clams in 1997-98 ENSO
  27. 27. Could destroy marine and coastal ecosystems Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C could cause • Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification • Massive coral bleaching in 1998
  28. 28. Sea level rise could damage mangroves, coastal areas and corals Sea level rise will: • Extend salt water intrusion and affect groundwater • Affect mangroves • Inundate coastal farms • Increase flood risks for settlement areas and infrastructure
  29. 29. Could increase incidence of vector and water borne diseases Dengue Malaria Cholera
  30. 30. Could affect livelihood of poor communities • Upland farming • Collection of forest products • Fishing • Logging • Handicrafts
  31. 31. • Adverse psycho-social impacts on children 31
  32. 32. Could mean poor Presidential Task Force on Climate Change access to basic needs and social services such as food, clothing, shelter, water, education
  33. 33. Bottom Line: Drag on economy and sustainable development •Loss of lives •Destroy infra •Loss of income and livelihood •More sickness •More conflict/ competition •Breakdown of local institutions •Poor to poorer
  34. 34. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES IN PCW } 4 4 El Niño (1-3) or La Niña (-1 - -3) event El Niño (1-3) and La Niña (-1 - -3) event 3 3 2 2 El Nino 1 1 0 0 Normal } JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM JFM OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND OND AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ AMJ JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS JAS -1 -1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 -2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 -2 La Nina -3 -3 Source: PAGASA -4 -4 El Nino and La Nina events in the Philippines, 1980-1999. Year Year • Drought or El Nino events Floods from • Prolonged rains destructive typhoons • Delay in the onset of rainy season Dried river • Early onset of rainy season • Destructive typhoons
  35. 35. Summary of General Impacts of CV&E to Local Communities Areas of General concern Impacts Food availability (-) Crop yield (+) (-) Water availability (+) (-) Livelihood (-) Health (-) Infrastructure (-)
  36. 36. Impacts and Vulnerability of Various Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E Groups Impacts Degree of Vulnerability (-) Impacts Better-off ↓ production & Better coping farmers income; ↔ food, mechanism - low livelihood, health vulnerability “Little” ↓ production, Poor coping food, livelihood, mechanism – high farmers vulnerability health; more debt “Average” coping ↑ price of Employees mechanism – commodities moderately vul. Business- ↓ in sales “Average” coping persons mechanism – (small-scale) moderately vul.
  37. 37. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L. MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN F.C. OTIC NORT H TO SAN JOSE PROVINCIAL ROAD TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E. MUN. HALL RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL G.S. ROSARIO RESIDENTIAL SAN VICENTE RESIDENTIAL SAN FRANCISCO ST. RESIDENTIAL LEGEND : SAN JOAQUIN BETTER-OFF FARMERS SAN BALTAZAR ST. “SMALL” FARMERS EMPLOYEES BUSINESSPERSONS MALBAN G CREEK VULNERABLE AREAS
  38. 38. Factors affecting vulnerability: 1. Geographic location 2. Socioeconomic factors - Farm income (+) - Household size (+) - High - Monthly food expenditures (-) - Moderate - Farm distance to market (+) - Number of organizations joined (+) - Low - Farm size (+) - GPS Points - Sex (women more vulnerable than men) - Ethnic affiliation (migrants more vulnerable) - Number of organizations joined (+) - Land ownership (-) 3. Contextual factors - Dependency on development Level of vulnerability by land use types and projects/programs location of vulnerable places as identified by local - Lack of enabling national policies communities (GPS points) and and institutional support - Inequitable social structure
  39. 39. Responses to Climate Change 39
  40. 40. Responding to Climate Change Adaptation increases resilience and capacity to cope with current and future changes in climate reduces adverse effects of climate change and capitalize on opportunities But maladaptation can exacerbate adverse impacts and further compound vulnerability
  41. 41. How should we respond to Climate Change? How about this? 41
  42. 42. Responses to Climate Change Or this? 42
  43. 43. Responses to Climate Change This? 43
  44. 44. Responses to Climate Change And this? 44
  45. 45. Really, HOW SHOULD WE RESPOND? 45
  46. 46. Adaptation Practices employed by households in PCW ALFONSO- PANTABANGAN CARRANGLAN MA. AURORA ADAPTATION PRACTICES CASTAÑEDA TOTAL (N=374) (N=137) (N=198) (N=17) (N=22) Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Reduce consumption 104 75.91 143 72.22 16 94.12 15 68.18 278 74.33 Pray or make offerings to Anito 88 64.23 126 63.64 10 58.82 16 72.73 240 64.17 Avail of loans/credit facility 79 57.66 119 60.10 10 58.82 13 59.09 221 59.09 Store food, firewood, medicine and water 70 51.09 120 60.61 7 41.18 19 86.36 216 57.77 Community and kinship ties 72 52.55 86 43.43 7 41.18 11 50.00 176 47.06 Off-farm work 49 35.77 60 30.30 5 29.41 8 36.36 122 32.62 Seek government/ NGO assistance 33 24.09 71 35.86 7 41.18 6 27.27 117 31.28 Treebelts/wind breaks/ Hedgerows 36 26.28 36 18.18 2 11.76 19 86.36 93 24.87 Crop diversification 39 28.47 42 21.21 6 35.29 4 18.18 91 24.33 Asset disposal 33 24.09 44 22.22 2 11.76 5 22.73 84 22.46 Forecast natural hazards/disasters based from community’s/ indigenous 16 11.68 9 4.55 8 36.36 33 8.82 traditional knowledge * multiple responses Source: Peras (2005)
  47. 47. Summary of Adaptation Practices of Various Socioeconomic Groups in PCW Socioecono- Examples of Perceived Recommendations mic Groups Adaptation Effectiveness High interest loan; Some effective; Establish cooperative; don’t plant vegetables allow entrance of imported Poor farmers others not along river bank; products; prioritize poor rotate irrigation water farmers in livelihood projects Average Plant vegetables Mostly Provide marketing along river bank; assistance/support; provide Farmers/ Effective Engage in other other sources of livelihood fisher folks sources of livelihood Employees/ Avail of government Mostly Institute “price watch” to loans; store food protect consumers from small Effective supply and other prices entrepreneurs farm inputs Rich farmers Store food grains & Effective Lend money to poor farmers farms inputs; lend with low interest money /farm inputs to poor farmers
  48. 48. Summary and Implications  Given the same climate stressors, vulnerability varies among different households and socioeconomic groups depending on: their access to production resources and other assets options to live or have their assets in less vulnerable areas effectiveness of adaptation strategies.  Broader societal, policy and institutional contexts can exacerbate the adverse impacts of extreme and variable climate that can compound the vulnerability of certain households/group(s).
  49. 49. Summary and Implications Poor people, women and children are generally more vulnerable to CV&E and have lesser capacity to adapt due to: lack of/limited access to productive base (human, natural, and manufactured capital) past faulty development approach that created sense of dependency among local communities limited/inappropriate policy and institutional mechanism that provides assistance to the poor inequitable social structure
  50. 50. Summary and Implications Households and socioeconomic groups in different ecosystems apply different strategies to reduce their present vulnerability to CV&E Some adaptation strategies are innovative and effective, however, some further contribute to their already vulnerable condition
  51. 51. Summary and Implications Integrated climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be based on sound science Highlights the necessity of action-research types of engagements Need to partner with academic and research institutions and related organizations like PAGASA
  52. 52. Summary and Implications Participatory impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments have the following benefits: Generates public awareness and interest on the issue Promotes dialogue with local communities Increases the chances of enhancing local adaptation Complements existing assessment methods like the use of vulnerability index and GIS application, thereby make the assessment more robust Strengthen research-policy interlink
  53. 53. Summary and Implications Addressing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity should include among others Creating responsive policies and programs that will reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptive capacity by building on experiences of local communities and institutions Targeting the poor and other more vulnerable groups in adaptation planning
  54. 54. Summary and Implications Addressing vulnerability and enhancing adaptive capacity should include among others Building institutional capacity to anticipate and effectively respond to variable and extreme climate events Empowering the local communities to broaden their range of choices of appropriate strategies rather than making them dependent on unsustainable external support.
  55. 55. CONCLUSION 2007 IPCC Report concludes that: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal This has adverse impacts in both natural and human systems particularly the most vulnerable sectors – poor, women and children
  56. 56. 56
  57. 57. Everyone has an important role to play for this generation to take the second choice 57
  58. 58. Our future and the future of our children depends on how well we prepare and adapt to changing climate NOW!!!
  59. 59. Daghan Salamat! 59
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