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Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Reviewing the Science </li></ul><ul><li>Detecting the Changes </li></ul><ul><li...
Reviewing the Science <ul><li>Greenhouse warming makes earth habitable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Without CO 2 , Earth’s mean t...
GW, Clouds and Water Vapor CO 2  LEVELS RISE TEMPERATURES RISE EVAPORATION FROM THE OCEANS INCREASES WATER VAPOR IN THE AT...
Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Many well-known impacts of global warming (GW) not applicable to RP </li></ul><...
Sea level rise: 1950 to 1990 Yanagi and Akaki 1994
Impacts of a 1-m rise in sea level Perez et al. 1999
CRU-UEA Climate model results <ul><li>For B1 (+4% emissions, 1.5C sensitivity) to A2 (+320% emissions, 4.5C sensitivity) <...
 
Mactan Island, Cebu Cebu-Mactan
Northeast MManila Manila Bay-Laguna Lake
Bulacan-Pampanga
Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Effects of GW on RP’s weather will be on </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(a) Temperat...
Trends in Regional Surface Temperatures <ul><li>Nearly all  non-urban  stations in the region show a rise in mean temperat...
Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Global Warming: Quick Facts <ul><li>Typhoons form in warm waters (>27°C) </li></ul><ul><ul><li...
Western Pacific Typhoon Tracks (1945-2003)
Mean monthly and annual tropical cyclone frequency maps for the Western Pacific (1945-2003)
Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones <ul><li>Number of tropical cyclones appearing in the Western Pacific has been  incr...
What is causing this rise? Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and Annual Tropical Cyclones <ul><li>Western Pa...
Stronger Typhoons? <ul><li>Effect of GW on TC strength is currently the subject of  intense  scientific debate </li></ul><...
The Philippines, as seen in Global Climate Change Studies <ul><li>2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Unclear or weak tren...
Changes in Regional Rainfall Extremes, 1961 to 1998  (Manton et al 2001) <ul><li>What this can mean: longer dry periods, b...
Changes in Mean Annual Rainfall over the Philippines <ul><li>Significant reduction over NE Luzon </li></ul><ul><li>Signifi...
Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate  Making a Bad Situation Worse   <ul><li>Energy:  Bulk of local power s...
Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate  Making a Bad Situation Worse   <ul><li>Forests and biodiversity </li>...
Marine resources : coral reef bleaching    loss of fisheries
Summary of 1994 RP Emissions 1990 Total (ADB 1994): 81.9 x 10 3  tons Waste 7% Agriculture 33% Industry  11% Energy 49% 10...
Where We Stand  and  What it Means CO 2  Emissions per Capita (tons) <ul><li>Even if the Philippines stops emitting CO 2  ...
Planting Trees? <ul><li>How many?  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ateneo: 14,000 students emit 3500 tons/yr: 250 kg per student </l...
What to Do? Beg for CDM Funds <ul><li>CDM – Clean Development Mechanism </li></ul><ul><li>Rich country pays industries in ...
Final Notes <ul><li>Philippine climate is changing </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on many areas are currently unclear, but may ...
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Climate Change and the Philippines

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Discussion on the Science and Economics of Climate Change presented to the Mindanao Conference on Climate Change

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  • Transcript of "Climate Change and the Philippines"

    1. 1. Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Reviewing the Science </li></ul><ul><li>Detecting the Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on the Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Tasks to Do </li></ul>Emmanuel Anglo, Ph.D. Associate Professor Department of Environmental Science Ateneo de Manila University Head, Regional Climate Systems Manila Observatory
    2. 2. Reviewing the Science <ul><li>Greenhouse warming makes earth habitable </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Without CO 2 , Earth’s mean temperature will be about -18 ° C (no liquid water) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Despite skeptics, unprecedented rise in CO 2 emissions is causing global warming, environmental damage </li></ul>
    3. 3. GW, Clouds and Water Vapor CO 2 LEVELS RISE TEMPERATURES RISE EVAPORATION FROM THE OCEANS INCREASES WATER VAPOR IN THE ATMOSPHERE INCREASES WATER VAPOR, BEING A GREENHOUSE GAS, ABSORBS OUTGOING INFRARED RADIATION MORE CLOUDS MEANS LESS RADIATION REACHING THE SURFACE LESS RADIATION MEANS LESS WARMING TEMPERATURES FALL ! <ul><li>Feedback processes complicate forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Another major positive feedback: melting icecaps </li></ul>MORE WATER VAPOR MEANS MORE CLOUDS Red: Positive Feedback Blue: Negative Feedback ?
    4. 4. Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Many well-known impacts of global warming (GW) not applicable to RP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deadly heat waves are unlikely, no melting glaciers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GW must be distinguished from local warming (Urban Heat Island Effect) </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. Sea level rise: 1950 to 1990 Yanagi and Akaki 1994
    6. 6. Impacts of a 1-m rise in sea level Perez et al. 1999
    7. 7. CRU-UEA Climate model results <ul><li>For B1 (+4% emissions, 1.5C sensitivity) to A2 (+320% emissions, 4.5C sensitivity) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>SLR 7-38cm, AT 0.5-1.3 C in 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SLR 13-68cm, AT 0.8-2.4 C in 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SLR 19-104cm, AT 1.1-3.5 C in 2080 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>For 2050 rain, B1 yields +6% Jun-Aug in Mindanao, A2 yields -20% Dec-Feb in Visayas and +15% Jun-Aug in Mindanao (consistent with other models) </li></ul>
    8. 9. Mactan Island, Cebu Cebu-Mactan
    9. 10. Northeast MManila Manila Bay-Laguna Lake
    10. 11. Bulacan-Pampanga
    11. 12. Climate Change and the Philippines <ul><li>Effects of GW on RP’s weather will be on </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(a) Temperature, </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(b) rainfall and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(c) tropical cyclone activity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Which then cause impacts on other sectors: agriculture, forests, water resources, etc. </li></ul></ul>
    12. 13. Trends in Regional Surface Temperatures <ul><li>Nearly all non-urban stations in the region show a rise in mean temperatures between 1960 to 1998 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More hot days, warm nights, fewer cold days and nights </li></ul></ul>Trends in number of hot days and warm nights (inset). Large symbols indicate where p  0.05. From Manton et al. 2000.
    13. 14. Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Global Warming: Quick Facts <ul><li>Typhoons form in warm waters (>27°C) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fewer typhoons in January to March, most frequent in July to November </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Typhoons affect Mindanao mainly in December when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain warm enough </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In theory, warmer SST means more frequent, stronger storms </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Other requirements: uniform winds along vertical, enough moisture throughout troposphere </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not clear how global warming will change these </li></ul></ul>
    14. 15. Western Pacific Typhoon Tracks (1945-2003)
    15. 16. Mean monthly and annual tropical cyclone frequency maps for the Western Pacific (1945-2003)
    16. 17. Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones <ul><li>Number of tropical cyclones appearing in the Western Pacific has been increasing </li></ul><ul><li>In the Philippines, the rise in typhoon crossings is most pronounced over Visayas </li></ul>Annual increase in number of TCs. Shading indicates where p  0.01. (From Anglo 2005).
    17. 18. What is causing this rise? Western Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and Annual Tropical Cyclones <ul><li>Western Pacific has been warming up by 0.15°C per decade since 1976, weakly influencing tropical cyclone activity </li></ul>
    18. 19. Stronger Typhoons? <ul><li>Effect of GW on TC strength is currently the subject of intense scientific debate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recent studies show a significant rise in number of strong hurricanes in Atlantic, less pronounced increase in the Western Pacific </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Skeptics: Observed rise in TC strength due to ( i ) better observations, or ( ii ) natural variation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What is certain: Philippine populations are much more vulnerable to typhoons than before </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More people living in riverbanks, mountainsides </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Even if TC strength doesn’t increase, numbers of people at risk are rising </li></ul></ul>
    19. 20. The Philippines, as seen in Global Climate Change Studies <ul><li>2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Unclear or weak trends for the SEA region, especially RP </li></ul>Recent NASA study: Global tropical rainfall is increasing, but what about the Philippines? Jun-Jul-Aug rainfall total
    20. 21. Changes in Regional Rainfall Extremes, 1961 to 1998 (Manton et al 2001) <ul><li>What this can mean: longer dry periods, but heavier rains during wet season </li></ul>Change in the frequency of days with rain Change in the proportion of total annual rainfall contributed by heavy rain
    21. 22. Changes in Mean Annual Rainfall over the Philippines <ul><li>Significant reduction over NE Luzon </li></ul><ul><li>Significant increase over Western Visayas during La Niña </li></ul><ul><li>Under investigation: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in the start of rainy season </li></ul></ul>Difference in mean annual rainfall, 1976-2000 minus 1951-1975. ENSO events based on Multivariate ENSO Index (Wolter and Timlin 1998) NORMAL EL NINO LA NINA ALL YEARS
    22. 23. Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate Making a Bad Situation Worse <ul><li>Energy: Bulk of local power supply in RP comes from hydroelectricity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Any decrease means more reliance on imported coal, oil </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Less rain or too much rain, less harvest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in timing of rain also critical </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CO 2 rise favors crops, but weeds like it more </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New crop varieties will be needed </li></ul></ul>
    23. 24. Downstream Effects of a Changing Philippine Climate Making a Bad Situation Worse <ul><li>Forests and biodiversity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lasco (2007): Moist forests will shrink, turn to dry forests </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GW will raise flood risk, worsening degradation and species loss </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Disease vectors like mosquitoes can expand range </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water conflicts can intensify </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Public welfare: More displacement due to disasters </li></ul>
    24. 25. Marine resources : coral reef bleaching  loss of fisheries
    25. 26. Summary of 1994 RP Emissions 1990 Total (ADB 1994): 81.9 x 10 3 tons Waste 7% Agriculture 33% Industry 11% Energy 49% 100.8 Total 7.1 Waste 10.6 Industry 33.1 Agriculture 50.0 Energy CO 2 Emissions (10 3 tons) Sector
    26. 27. Where We Stand and What it Means CO 2 Emissions per Capita (tons) <ul><li>Even if the Philippines stops emitting CO 2 there will be little effect on global warming </li></ul><ul><li>We should reduce emissions for its other benefits : cleaner air, less oil dependence </li></ul><ul><li>We should decide for ourselves </li></ul>
    27. 28. Planting Trees? <ul><li>How many? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ateneo: 14,000 students emit 3500 tons/yr: 250 kg per student </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A tropical tree removes 8 kg of CO 2 per yr (or 8 tons per hectare) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Number of trees each student needs to plant: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>~ 31 trees per student </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>250 hectares to reforest </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2 times the size of the campus </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What this means: </li></ul><ul><li>We should plant trees, but it will not be enough </li></ul>
    28. 29. What to Do? Beg for CDM Funds <ul><li>CDM – Clean Development Mechanism </li></ul><ul><li>Rich country pays industries in poor nations to reduce pollution, gets the credits for reduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing CO 2 emissions from poor countries has the same benefits to the donor country </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industries in rich countries already very clean and efficient, so a $1-M investment will reduce more CO 2 in RP than in the U.S. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Types of projects: forestry, alternative power generation, pollution control, energy efficiency </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Win-win </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rich country gets credit for CO 2 reduction as required by Kyoto Protocol, poor country gets money for projects </li></ul></ul>
    29. 30. Final Notes <ul><li>Philippine climate is changing </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts on many areas are currently unclear, but may become more pronounced when warming continues </li></ul><ul><li>Old lessons: Use less energy, walk, eat more veggies; reach out to the grassroots </li></ul><ul><li>More science: Focus on understanding , adaptation and preparation </li></ul>
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