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  • 1. Housing, jobs and transit in a local and regional context! Egon Terplan | June 2014!
  • 2. Outline! •  Who is SPUR?! •  The regional context! •  The housing problem: Growth in the price of housing not matched by growth in incomes for most.! •  Why this is happening:! –  High demand.! –  Chronic underproduction.! –  Difficult process.! •  Some solutions!
  • 3. The SPUR Urban Center in San Francisco
 SPUR San Jose launched in 2009!
  • 4. SPUR promotes good planning and good government
 through research, education and advocacy
  
  • 5. SPUR: what we do! •  original policy research ! •  policy advocacy! •  monthly magazine: The Urbanist! •  exhibitions! •  forums, panels, and speakers!
  • 6. SPUR
 3-city strategy ! ! San Francisco
 (founded in 1910)! pop. 825,000 – 49 sq. mi.! ! San Jose 
 (launched in 2009) ! !! pop. 985,000 – 180 sq. mi.! projected growth by 2040:! 470,000 jobs! 120,000 housing units! ! Oakland (launching in…)! pop. 400,000 – 78 sq. mi.!
  • 7. The regional context!
  • 8. How do we accommodate expected growth…! Source:  MTC  and  ABAG,  Jobs  Housing  Connec9on  Strategy,  2012  
  • 9. …In such a way that reduces per capita GHG emissions
 
 ! Percent Reduction in Per Capita Emissions from 2005 to Target Year 2020 2035 Bay Area 7% 15% Sacramento 7% 16% San Diego 7% 13% Los Angeles 8% 13% Central Valley 5% 10% 9 Source:  ARB  Adopted  GHG  Targets,  September  2010  
  • 10. …and accommodates housing for workers at all income levels.!
  • 11. And encourages growth in places ideally with transit -- 38% of jobs projected to go to the three central cities! Source:  MTC  and  ABAG,  Plan  Bay  Area,  2013  
  • 12. 41% of the 660,000 projected housing units planned to go to the three central cities! Source:  MTC  and  ABAG,  Plan  Bay  Area,  2013  
  • 13. The housing problem!
  • 14. Rising housing costs !
  • 15. With properties being bought quicker here than anywhere else nationally! Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, 2014!
  • 16. Paired with declining incomes! Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
  • 17. And a decline in jobs in the middle. 
 Nearly 40% of jobs paying less than $18/hour! 508   309   505   0   100   200   300   400   500   600   $30  and  above   $18  to  $30  an  hour   Under  $18  an  hour   Bay  Area  Total  Job  Openings  2010-­‐20  (Thousands)   Source:  Employment  Development  Department  
  • 18. In an environment with increasing renters! Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
  • 19. And many communities with lower incomes! Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
  • 20. Some spend over half their income on rent! Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
  • 21. Workers across the income spectrum - even higher earners - are feeling the crunch! Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America’s Rental Housing – Evolving Markets and Needs, 2013 !
  • 22. Some answers
 
 Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area?
 
 Part I: We don’t build enough.!
  • 23. Since 1980 –the time of Prop 13, we’ve added few homes (and have had slower job growth too)! Source: SPUR Analysis, ABAG Bay Area Census!
  • 24. Since 1969, new construction in San Francisco has averaged only about 2,000 units per year! 2,045   1,215   2,380   1,578   1,516   790   1,978   1,002   2,581   0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Units Authorized for Construction Units Completed from New Construction Housing units authorized vs. housing units completed, San Francisco 1969-2012!
  • 25. Supply matters – the most expensive markets
 do not build much housing.! Source: Jed Kolko, Trulia, “Where Buying a Home is Within Reach of the Middle Class.” 2014, Available at: http://www.trulia.com/trends/2014/05/middle-class-may-2014/!
  • 26. Most recent housing is produced in San Jose, followed by SF and Dublin! Total  housing  produc1on  in  2013   Mountain  View  produced  37  units  in  2013  (Palo  Alto  –  89)   Source: CA Department of Finance! 3,578   2,377   1,124  
  • 27. Very little low-income housing has been built! Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
  • 28. And some affordable housing is at risk of being converted to market rate! Source: ABAG, Fair Housing and Equity Assessment, 2014 !
  • 29. Housing and jobs are not evenly distributed!
  • 30. This mismatch leads to in-commuting and congestion.!
  • 31. Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area?
 
 Part II: There is high demand to be here.!
  • 32. The fastest-growing portion of the economy is the highly specialized knowledge services sector! Knowledge  services  =  professional  services,  so[ware,  IT,  finance,  informa9on.   Source: SPUR Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics!
  • 33. Knowledge jobs want to be in the Bay Area.
 The rise of technology reinforces the need for more face-to-face work 
 
 Even though we can work anywhere, the office isn’t going away…
 and is now the place for collaborative work!
  • 34. Why is housing so expensive in the Bay Area?
 
 Part III: We make it difficult to add new housing.!
  • 35. And every community has its own reasons why it doesn’t want to approve housing.! Protect “neighborhood character”.! Prevent increase in traffic.! Stop negative impact on city services.! Reduce threat of gentrification and displacement.! Revise definition from urban to suburban. !
  • 36. The planning process and requirements mean it is expensive to build new housing! Source: SPUR analysis, http://www.spur.org/publications/article/2014-02-11/how-make-san-francisco-affordable-again!
  • 37. Caveat 1: What about shuttles?
 
 Employee shuttles are not the problem – they are the symptom.!
  • 38. Employee shuttles are about land use.
 
 
 
 Most of the region’s office jobs are just a few miles from rail transit. That is a “last mile” gap or barrier and is a key reason why most people drive.
 !
  • 39. Google   Apple   Facebook   San  Jose  HSR   Mtn  View   Palo  Alto   Redwood  City   Cisco    =  Rail  sta1on   Many  des1na1ons   re  not  on  transit  
  • 40. And opposition to shuttles in SF isn’t always about “gentrification”!
  • 41. Caveat 2: What about jobs?
 
 Jobs are still very important to plan for.
 
 And they are actually more important than housing to put in the right place (i.e. near transit).!
  • 42. Jobs  near  transit  are  more  important  than   homes  in  geang  people  to  use  transit.   0%   5%   10%   15%   20%   25%   30%   35%   40%   45%   Residence  and  Workplace   within  ½  mile   Workplace  Alone  within  ½   mile   Residence  Alone  within  ½   mile   Residence  and  Workplace   beyond  ½  mile   Transit  commute  mode  share,  depending  on  proximity   to  regional  rail  (including  ferry)   Source:  San  Francisco  Bay  Area  MTC  2006  
  • 43. The percent who drive to work varies widely by job center – places not on transit with low driving have shuttles!
  • 44. This is a place where we should be planning for
 significant employment growth.!
  • 45. Transbay Development Program Transbay area in the (near) future!
  • 46. Solutions! Mountain  View  cannot  on  its  own  solve  regional   housing  affordability;  but  neither  can  the  region   become  affordable  without  Mountain  View  in  the   solu9on.    
  • 47. Conduct neighborhood planning that allows
 for increased growth!
  • 48. How much growth is San Francisco planning
 in housing?! 51  
  • 49. How much growth is San Francisco planning
 in jobs?!
  • 50. Upzone on or near transit!
  • 51. Some places in the region have had almost no development since transit went in 40 years ago.! North  Berkeley  BART  –  transit  without  development  
  • 52. But we need to think beyond the immediate station area. Example: Diridon / downtown San Jose can only accommodate another 50,000 jobs max!
  • 53. Downtown San Jose is nearby many other job centers!
  • 54. SAN JOSE’S CURRENT RAIL SYSTEM VTA LIGHT RAIL, CALTRAIN, ACE, CAPITOL CORRIDORWith current rail system concentrated at Diridon!
  • 55. DOWNTOWN SAN JOSE WILL FURTHER BECOME THE SOUTH BAY’S TRANSIT HUB – BUT TRANSIT REMAINS LESS COMPETITIVE WITH DRIVING FOR MANY TRIPSAnd future rail that will have to connect seamlessly to these other nearby destinations – so subregions matter!
  • 56. Work at a subregional level to promote housing!
  • 57. Cities along a corridor could coordinate their planning for overall housing – reduce transportation spending to cities that do not collaborate?!
  • 58. Increase production of affordable housing!
  • 59. Subsidy per unit of affordable housing: $250,000! 1,000 homes = $250,000,000! ! 10,000 homes = $2,500,000,000! ! 100,000 homes = $25,000,000,000! Some affordable housing math: It’s expensive!
  • 60. Local General Obligation bonds
 Some General Fund support for affordable housing
 Buy-down existing market rate units
 Convert underused hotels
 Use surplus local government land!
  • 61. Process reforms! Should housing be “as-of-right?”!
  • 62. Rethink the corporate campus!
  • 63. Retrofit suburbia to become more walkable!
  • 64. It is hard to get support for housing with blank walls on the ground floor (for parking)
 
 Establish a policy defining active use requirements on ground floors along public streets.
 !
  • 65. Encourage student housing!
  • 66. Protect existing residents from being pushed out! •  Expand tenant protections such as longer notification periods.! •  Provide tenants with legal help during eviction process.! •  Help lower-income homeowners to secure more value from property (such as becoming Airbnb host).!
  • 67. Encourage and legalize secondary units – this could increase total housing in SF by 1/3!
  • 68. Hard questions!
  • 69. Should we discourage pied-á-terres?!
  • 70. Does Airbnb help or hurt?!
  • 71. Is the clash between protecting community character and affordability inevitable?!
  • 72. Is improving transit access to lower-cost locations an acceptable solution for affordability?!
  • 73. The Bay Area is a part of a megaregion that includes Sacramento to Merced. 
 ! Map shows the proposed boundaries based on SPUR’s analysis of the Northern California megaregion! Source:  GreenInfo  Network   mapping  for  SPUR  
  • 74. Summary! •  The region’s housing issues took many years to create.! •  They will not be solved immediately.! •  While the challenges are regional – the solutions start locally.!
  • 75. Thank  you