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Where To With Caltrain
Governance?
Caltrain Governance Discussion
Lou Thompson
February 11, 2014

Thompson, Galenson and A...
The Major Points









Caltrain does well operationally, BUT
Major changes coming
Major issues to be resolved
Opt...
Passengers
(millions)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

NOTE: All comparisons are 2011 data from FTA database
Passenger-Miles
(000)
3,000,000

2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000

500,000
-
Revenue/Passenger-Mile
($)
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15

0.1
0.05
0
Operating Expense/Passenger-Mile
($)
1.200

4.24

1.96

1.000
0.800
0.600
0.400
0.200
-

NOTE: DCTA and CDOT are truncated...
Revenue/Expense Ratio
(%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Average Trip Length
(Miles)
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0

20.0
10.0
-
Average Speed
(MPH)
70
60
50

40
30
20
10
0

Mix with HSR?
Passenger-Miles/Vehicle-Mile:
Rough Indicator of Load Factor

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Vehicle-Miles/Train-Mile:
Average Train Length
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
Major Changes Are Coming









Electrification of Caltrain
DTX (with ET, could double Caltrain
demand)
HSR
UP (fr...
Major Issues







Money (Caltrain, DTX and HSR)
Joint operations on same lines: who
owns, schedules, dispatches, pay...
The Options



Structure
Business Models
Rail Structures

Suburban

INFRASTRUCTURE
PASSENGER
Intercity
HSR

Integral (Monolithic)

Local or National
National Railw...
Bringing Ownership Into the Picture
Private Role
Fully State-Owned

Unbundling

Integral (Monolithic)

China, Belarus,
Sou...
Business Models in Rail
Passenger Service








Wholly integral – BART
Management contract – Caltrain, MBTA
Gross c...
The U.K. Model?









Network Rail, a “not for profit” corporation owns, improves
and maintains the infrastructure...
CA Services and UK Franchise
Passengers
(000,000)
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
-

Note: UK Data taken from ORR National Ra...
CA Services and UK Franchises:
Passenger-Miles (000,000)
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
1,500.0
1,000.0
500.0
-
CA Services and UK Franchises:
Miles of Line
2,000.0
1,800.0
1,600.0
1,400.0
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
-
CA Services and UK Franchises:
Average Trip Length (Mi)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
CA Services and UK Franchises: Traffic
Density
(Pass-Mile/Mile of Line)
8,000.0
7,000.0

6,000.0
5,000.0
4,000.0
3,000.0
2...
Making the Decision







Public versus market (private) benefit and
cost balance: wholly public leads to BART,
wholl...
For Argument: One Approach














DTX tracks leased to Caltrain for a fee (not based on use)
Caltrain owns/...
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Transcript of "Lou thompsoncaltraingovernance"

  1. 1. Where To With Caltrain Governance? Caltrain Governance Discussion Lou Thompson February 11, 2014 Thompson, Galenson and Associates, LLC 14684 Stoneridge Drive Saratoga, CA 95070-5745 http://www.tgaassoc.com Tel: (408) 647-2104 Fax: (408) 647-2105 lou.thompson@gmail.com
  2. 2. The Major Points       Caltrain does well operationally, BUT Major changes coming Major issues to be resolved Options for new ownership and governance structures Making the decision: benefits, risks and resources For the sake of argument: one idea
  3. 3. Passengers (millions) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 NOTE: All comparisons are 2011 data from FTA database
  4. 4. Passenger-Miles (000) 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 -
  5. 5. Revenue/Passenger-Mile ($) 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0
  6. 6. Operating Expense/Passenger-Mile ($) 1.200 4.24 1.96 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 - NOTE: DCTA and CDOT are truncated as shown
  7. 7. Revenue/Expense Ratio (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  8. 8. Average Trip Length (Miles) 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 -
  9. 9. Average Speed (MPH) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mix with HSR?
  10. 10. Passenger-Miles/Vehicle-Mile: Rough Indicator of Load Factor 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  11. 11. Vehicle-Miles/Train-Mile: Average Train Length 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 -
  12. 12. Major Changes Are Coming       Electrification of Caltrain DTX (with ET, could double Caltrain demand) HSR UP (freight on Caltrain line) ACE extensions (Dumbarton Bridge)? BART to San Jose
  13. 13. Major Issues     Money (Caltrain, DTX and HSR) Joint operations on same lines: who owns, schedules, dispatches, pays what to whom, and is liable? Level boarding and common platform heights (Transbay Terminal) Grade crossings must be eliminated
  14. 14. The Options   Structure Business Models
  15. 15. Rail Structures Suburban INFRASTRUCTURE PASSENGER Intercity HSR Integral (Monolithic) Local or National National Railway Railway Dominant/Tenant National Railway Local operator Intercity operators usually dominant usually dominant: with intercity freight in US, tenants passenger in Japan Local or national National National Network Separated Infrastructure Network Network Provider provider Provider FREIGHT Suburban Private or National Railway Local or National Railway Intercity freight operators dominant Local control, some freight and intercity tenants National Network Provider Local agencies OPERATIONS PASSENGER Intercity HSR National Railway National Railway Freight tenants National National Operator, Operator, competition competition possible possible FREIGHT Examples Private or National Railway China, India, BART Passenger tenants, US (Class I some freight and Amtrak), tenants by Canada, trackage Japan rights Multiple operators EU model, Australia
  16. 16. Bringing Ownership Into the Picture Private Role Fully State-Owned Unbundling Integral (Monolithic) China, Belarus, South Africa, Dominant Operator Integral, tenant operators pay for access Amtrak and VIA, Japan Rail Freight, Russia Vertical Separation ("Open Access") all operators pay for access "Standard" EU model Partnerships Network Rail? Exclusive Passenger and freight concessions Privately Owned Smaller US freight railroads (500), East Japan, Central Japan and West Japan, Taiwan HSR Caltrain with UP as tenant Most US freight railways Some UK franchises, Network Rail? Most UK franchises, Railtrack (but not Network Rail), EWS
  17. 17. Business Models in Rail Passenger Service      Wholly integral – BART Management contract – Caltrain, MBTA Gross cost franchise (UK urban franchises) Net cost franchise (UK longer haul franchises, Rio and BsAs suburban) Wholly private (Taiwan HSR, Japanese HSR)
  18. 18. The U.K. Model?      Network Rail, a “not for profit” corporation owns, improves and maintains the infrastructure. Network Rail charges franchises (and freight companies) a published set of access charges. These charges recover all maintenance and some of the investment: regulated by ORR Private companies compete for 5-7 year passenger franchises awarded by DfT with some role by local authorities. Competition is usually for minimum support, but can include payments to government. Freight minimally supported. Rolling stock leased from leasing companies (ROSCOs) Services and charges regulated by ORR
  19. 19. CA Services and UK Franchise Passengers (000,000) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 - Note: UK Data taken from ORR National Rail Trends Yearbook 2010/2011
  20. 20. CA Services and UK Franchises: Passenger-Miles (000,000) 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 -
  21. 21. CA Services and UK Franchises: Miles of Line 2,000.0 1,800.0 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 -
  22. 22. CA Services and UK Franchises: Average Trip Length (Mi) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 -
  23. 23. CA Services and UK Franchises: Traffic Density (Pass-Mile/Mile of Line) 8,000.0 7,000.0 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 -
  24. 24. Making the Decision     Public versus market (private) benefit and cost balance: wholly public leads to BART, wholly private to Taiwan HSR. Usually the result is a balance (there is a public role) Risk allocation (cost, schedule and demand) Resources (who can pay and under what conditions). Model has to match the money No magic solutions
  25. 25. For Argument: One Approach         DTX tracks leased to Caltrain for a fee (not based on use) Caltrain owns/leases and maintains all infrastructure (stations?). Charges HSR/others an access fee based on use (various options) HSR/Caltrain agree on schedules, have joint dispatching (CTC) center to ensure neutrality in dispatching HSR franchise operator will be allowed to compete for Caltrain franchise (or contract) when re-offered UP replaced by short line operator that uses electric traction and operates only at night (full temporal separation) State/local program to eliminate all grade crossings before HSR Re-open Dumbarton Bridge to remove freight and let ACE serve midPeninsula directly Oversight agency to coordinate all services. Harmonize fares and and provide common ticketing?
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