2012 International Conference on Climate Adaptation
THE ADAPTATION OF SUGARCANE TOCLIMATE CHANGES: OBSERVATIONSABOUT THE BRAZILIAN BREEDING.Silvia Angélica D. de Carvalho, PhDAndré T. Furtado, PhDDepartament of Science and Technology PolicyGeoscience Institute – UNICAMP
1. OBJECTIVE AND METHODOLOGY Objective: It presents some observations about sugarcanebreeding in Brazil and it analyzes the countrys ability toprovide adapted varieties to climate changes,maintaining its current position of major producer; Methodology: Literature review; Interviews carried out with coordinators from someBrazilians breeding programs; Survey of secondary data;
Research objectives: Investigating the main sugarcane breeding programs in Brazil, identifying themain technological challenges for the crop related to the adaptation to climatechanges and supporting the formulation of public policies focused on thesugar and alcohol sector Thematic Project - ALCSCENS: Generation of Alcohol ProductionScenarios as Support for the Formulation of Public Policies Applied to theAdaptation of the National Sugar and Alcohol Industry to the ClimateChanges;2. RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT IN ALCOHOLPRODUCTION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGESIt’s inserted in the Research Program of Global ClimateChanges at Research Foundation of São Paulo State – FAPESP
ExpansionPotential, Pressure, Demand,Economical Interest, Land, TechnologyConstraints& ImpactsEnvironment, Food Security, Tax BurdenDemographic Dynamics, InfrastructureHuman Health, Harvest Forecast2. The importance of studying the Sugarcane and Alcohol Sector:
DemographyClimatologyPoliticsFood SecurityModelingScientificCommunicationGeneticEngineeringGeo-technologyAgricultureHealth2. Thematic Project: the sugarcane sector adaptation depends on the interaction andadaptation of all these areas.
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of sugar andalcohol; The sugarcane production grew 143% in the decade2000-2010; Strong growth is due to the intensification ofdomestic and foreign demands for sugar and alcohol;3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR
Source: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.Harvest-YearMillionsoftonsGROWTH OF SUGARCANE BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION
(yield t/ha) (Planted area) (Harvested area)(Tonnesperhectares)(Millionsofhectares)EVOLUTION OF THE PRODUCTION AREA AND THEPRODUCTIVITY OF BRAZILIAN SUGARCANESource: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.
Millionsofm3HarvestsSource: Ministry of Agriculture - Anuário Estatística da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento.Secretaria de Produção e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p.EVOLUTION OF ETHANOL BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION
EVOLUTION OF SUGAR BRAZILIAN PRODUCTIONMillionsoftonnesHarvests
But, in recent harvests, some indicators start to fall:3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTORharvest2010/2011harvest2011/2012PercentagechangePlanted area (thousand ha) 8,056.0 8,981.5 11,49Yield (ton/ha) 77,45 68,29 -11,82Production (thousand ton) 623,905.3 571,471.0 -8,4Sugar Production (thousand ton) 38,168.4 36,882.0 -3,37Alcohol Production (thousand m3) 27,595.5 22,857.6 -17,17What is happening?Why are the indicators falling?
There are some structural problems such as lack ofrenewal sugarcane planted area, and besides... The climate had an important role in the drops justmentioned: Extension of the dry season; Instability of rainfall, more intense and in short period; Absence of rain in significant periods of plant development And so on...3. BRAZILIAN SUGARCANE SECTOR
4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOS São Paulo State, the largest Brazilian producer, has fertilelands and very favorable climatic conditions; The new areas of crop expansion have worst conditions: poorsoil, high temperature and water stress. For example, the Northof São Paulo and the Midwest of the country; The Brazilian climate scenarios (PINTO & ASSAD, 2008)estimated that the increase in temperature will promote anincrease in water stress, leading to a raise in areas with highclimatic risks; According to these scenarios, sugarcane is one of the few cropsthat should have significant expansion of the productive area.Reference: Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil.British Embassy, 2008.
Recent studies bring some reservations to this strongexpansion of the sugarcane – Gonçalves et al (2011): The temperature rise expected in the coming decades canbe generally suitable for sugarcane, but the influence ofwater for the crop is large, especially during vegetativegrowth. As the water stress has been observed precisely in thesugarcane vegetative growing period, there may be asignificant drop in the productivity of sugarcane (likeoccurred in the last harvests).4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOSReference: GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão dacana-de-açúcar em São Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES, 2011.
Thus, the temperature rise associated with increasing waterstress may lead to an increase in production costs by requiringthe use of other technologies such as irrigation; (and adaptedvarieties)4. SUGARCANE AND CLIMATE SCENARIOSSo, the research and development of highlyproductive varieties are essential to ensurethe adaptation of this crop.
Traditional Brazilian centers of sugarcane breeding have beenresponsible for major advances in productivity and they are stillthe basis of technological development in the sector; The sugarcane yield grew 30% in 30 years thanks to the geneticbreeding and support of public research programs, likePROALCOHOL; Leading Brazilians genetic breeding institutes: University Network for Development of the Sugar-Ethanol Sector –RIDESA*; Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC*; Agronomic Institute of Campinas – IAC*;* initials in Portuguese5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING
5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING University Network for Development of the Sugar-EthanolSector – RIDESA It was founded in 1991 and owns 59% of the sugarcane plantedvarieties in Brazil; It represents a network composed by 10 federal universitieslocated in various regions of the country and... Because of this, RIDESA can develop a wide range of sugarcanevarieties suitable for different Brazilian climates and soils; In 20 years of history, it developed 59 sugarcane varieties; In March/2011, it presented 13 new varieties: 2 of them withfeatures such as rusticity and water stress tolerance;
Sugarcane Tecnology Center – CTC This center was owned by COOPERSUCAR – Sugar and AlcoholProducers Cooperative; currently, a private institution; It has the largest and the most complete collection of sugarcanegermplasm in the country; When the collection was owned by Coopersucar, it was a public sourceof research, nowadays it is used only for CTC; CTC owns 38% of the sugarcane planted varieties in Brazil; Last year, CTC launched two new varieties with resistance towater stress; It is developing transgenic varieteis resistant to water stress;5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING
Agronomic Institute of Campinas - IAC It is the forerunner of the agricultural research in Brazil and itgave the start to study of sugarcane crop in the country; Between the 40s-50s, it launched the first Brazilian rangeof sugarcane varieties; It lost space in the 80s-90s with changes in the governmentpublic policies; IAC has been restructured and, in 2005, it founded the AdvancedCenter of Sugarcane in partnership with the State Government ofSão Paulo; It has experiments in the Central-West of the country for varietiesresistant to water stress and high temperatures;5. SUGARCANE GENETIC BREEDING
AVANCED CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IACsugarcane seedlings grown for selection(April 13, 2012)
ADVANCE CENTER OF SUGARCANE - IACSampler of sugarcane varieteis avaible to plant.(April 13, 2012)
6. RESULTS In the first interviews carried out, some limitations for sugarand alcohol sector adaptation in Brazil were identified:1. Long development period of a variety until it is ready forcommercialization (12 to 15 years): To ensure the sectorial adaptation, the investment on adapted varietiesmust start now, since the 2050 scenarios show increase in temperatureand in water stress;2. Weakening of the public research system, giving rise tostructural difficulties such as: lack of resources for hiring qualified personnel and buying modernequipment; lack of government financial support, forcing the breeding programs to getinvolved mostly with farmers’ urgent needs;
3. Incompatibility between private logic and technological changeto tackle climate change4. farmers are unaware of climate change scenarios and theirconsequences, so they don’t invest in development of adaptedvarieties; The discussion about climate changes is strongly inserted in theacademy, but it is widely discussed outside it;5. Lack of public policies oriented for the sugarcane sectoradaptation to support: The professionalization and organization of the sector to face themultinational companies competition advancing in sugarcane breedingand transgenic varieties; Innovations in soil improvement and crop management and so on;6. RESULTS
IN CONCLUSION... There is a restructuration in course on the national system ofsugarcane science and technology with the strengthening ofold institutions, the emergence of new agents and changeof government posture; Need for structuring public agronomic research with focuson adaptation to climate change in the industry; Dissemination of existing commercial varieties featuresby drought tolerance, resistance to high temperature and rusticity; Development of new varieties with the same features; Making the former bank of germplasm from Coopersucar publicagain – allowing the expansion of the crosses of sugarcanevarieties increasing the number of successes.
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REFERENCES MARGULIS, S. e DUBEUX, C. B. S. (eds.) Economia da Mudança do Clima no Brasil: Custos e Oportunidades.Coordenação geral Jacques Marcovitch.– São Paulo: IBEP Gráfica, 2010.82 p. GONÇALVES, R. R. V. et al Análise comparativa do clima atual e futuro para avaliar a expansão da cana-de-açúcar emSão Paulo. XVII Congresso Brasileiro de Agrometeorologia , Guarapari – ES. Pinto, H.S. & Assad, E.D. Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil. British Embassy,2008. Anuário Estatístico da Agroenergia 2010/ Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Secretaria deProdução e Agroenergia – Brasília, : MAPA /SPAE, 2ª ed., 2011. 223 p. Furtado, A. T., Scandiffio, M. I. G. and Cortez, L. A. B. The Brazilian sugarcane innovation system. Energy Policy 39,2011, 156-166 p. HASEGAWA, M. A criação, circulação e transformação do conhecimento em redes de inovação: o programa demelhoramento genético da cana-de-açúcar do IAC. Dissertação de Mestrado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2001. HASEGAWA, M. Avaliação das capacitações dos spinoffs gerados por programas de P&D: o programa cana do IAC.Tese de Doutorado. IG – Unicamp: Campinas, SP., 2005. RIDESA – Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroenergético. Catálogo nacional de variedades“RB” de cana-de-açúcar / Rede Interuniversitária para o Desenvolvimento do Setor Sucroalcooleiro. – Curitiba, 2010.136 p. CHALLINOR, A. Towards the development of adaptation options using climate and crop yield forecasting at seasonalto multi-decadal timescales. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (2009), p. 453-465. DINARDO-MIRANDA, L.; MACHADO DE VASCONCELOS, A. C.; LANDELL, M. G. A. (editores) Cana-de-Açúcar. 1ª edição.Campinas: Instituto Agronômico, 2010. CORTEZ, L. A. B. (coord.) Bioetanol de cana-de-açúcar: P&D para produtividade e sustentabilidade. São Paulo:Blucher, 2010, p. 954.
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