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Shows that analysis is primarily a human endeavor with only a minority of technical elements.

Shows that analysis is primarily a human endeavor with only a minority of technical elements.

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  • 1. Albert SimardPresented toCanadian Knowledge Mobilization ForumMississauga, ON June 3-4, 2013Competitive Intelligence:An Island of Structure in anUnstructured Ocean
  • 2. Diversity of PerspectivesWhat analysts proposed What managers fundedWhat the data supported What users needed
  • 3. Some DefinitionsAnalysis: Using deductive reasoning to differentiate, study, andinterpret data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or moreprecise meaning or understanding.Synthesis: Using inductive reasoning to integrate, study, andinterpret the collective functioning of many parts as a whole to inferbroader or higher-level meaning or understanding.Intelligence: Acquiring, extracting, and interpretingdata, information, or knowledge to reveal underlying patterns abouta situation or issue of interest to an organization.People tend to be good at either analysisor synthesis; few are good at both.
  • 4. Analysis is a Diverse Human ActivityBegins with a management decision to proceed.Collects content from people and organizations.Organizes content based on individual perspectives.Classifies issues based on human understanding.Selects analytical methods using expert knowledge.Interprets results through cognitive reasoning.Validates results through dialogue and collaboration.Authorizes implementation with another decision.Continues by monitoring, learning, and adapting.
  • 5. Intelligence FrameworkDirectionCollectionOrganizationAnalysisImplementationLarry Kahaner (1996)M. C. Escher (1957)
  • 6. Decision & PlanningHuman elementsStartDetermineObjectivesDecisionApprove Decisiondirection needPlanCollaborationNegotiationplanning appsIdentifyNeedExpertiseCollaborationWork ServicePlanCollaborationNegotiationplanning apps.DocumentOffice apps.templateAnalysisProjectStore Repository
  • 7. Decision MakingWork ServicerejectperspectivesCollaborationmodify?ReviewScheduleSubmitConsiderRecord ofDecisionActionCollaborationapproveEndStoreDecideRepositoryRecommendReviseOffice apps.templateHuman elements
  • 8. Spectrum of Evidencemathematics, logic, proofscience, engineering, technologystatistics, data, facts, measurementcollaboration, validation, managementexpertise, experience, judgementopinion, perception, biasbelief, emotion, valuesQuantitative (irrefutable)Qualitative (no evidence)
  • 9. Decision Maker DiversityAccountable for actionsSituational pressureBroader view than analysisOrganizational infrastructureDepth of understandingInvolvement in planningConfidence in resultsRisk tolerancePrevious experienceBelief systemEmotions
  • 10. Intelligence FrameworkDirectionCollectionOrganizationAnalysisImplementationM. C. Escher (1957)
  • 11. Supply and DemandSupply: What can Ido with theavailable data?(Intelligence)Demand: What datado I need to solve aproblem?(Regulation)
  • 12. Environmental Monitoring**Ad HocCyberspaceMediaPublishedLiteratureConferences ExperienceIndividualsAd hocCommunitiesof practicePractitionersMonitorsearchfilterscanResearchOffice apps.template.OrganizationDocumentStore RepositorySharing,ExpertiseWeb portalCorroborateWork ServiceHuman elements
  • 13. Knowledge Mobilization*IssueInternal sourcesInfrastructureContentEnvironmentResourcesCultureExternal sourcesAgreements, Content, Environment, Resources, SocietyAcquireCompileinternal ExpertiseSharingWeb portalSearch engineexternal ExpertiseSharingWeb portalSearch engineOrganizationProcessData mgt.Content mgt.Integratesystems analysisdecision apps.DocumentOffice apps.templatesInterpretSocial structureCollaborationExpertiseWork Service*Directed Human elements
  • 14. Content SourcesPublic DomainGovernment DocumentsAnnual reportsAnalyst reportsPublic databasesSpeechesBroadcast mediaPrint mediaTrade associationsWorld-Wide WebNon-Public DomainChange of statusHuman intelligenceTrade showsAsk employeesAsk clientsObservationAerial survey
  • 15. Autonomous SourcesDiversity - mandate, jurisdiction, domain, functionOpenness - security, privacy, control, propertyLegal - accountability, responsibility, liabilityCertification - inclusion, authenticity, reliabilityQuality - completeness, timeliness, accuracyInfrastructure - standards, networks, systemsFor Supply, know the limitations;for Demand, specify in advance
  • 16. Source DiversityIncreased visibility, awareness, or influenceSeen as active and competent playerFeedback on user needs and applicationsLeverage the value of organizational resourcesIncrease partnership and business opportunitiesOrganizational business or mandateInfluencing attitudes, opinions, or behaviorAdvocating a position, agenda, or policyIntervening in stakeholder or social activityPassiveActive
  • 17. Collecting ContentContentObjectsDataInformationKnowledgeSourceJurisdictionOrganizationFunctionDomainProcessPhysicalBiologicalEnvironmentalSocialEconomicOrganizationalIntegrationCollectStandardizeWeb portalSearch engineExpertiseRepositoriesWeb portalSearch engineExpertiseRepositoriesCollectStandardizeContent Mgt.StandardsContent Mgt.StandardsHuman elements
  • 18. Integrating ContentInputSynthesizeAnalyzeInterpretStore Repositorysynthesis apps.analysis apps.Social structuresExpertiseCollaborationOffice apps.templatesDocumentWork ServiceAnalysis Human elements
  • 19. Intelligence FrameworkDirectionCollectionOrganizationAnalysisImplementation M. C. Escher (1957)
  • 20. Organizing DiversityLibrary cataloguesSubject indexesTaxonomiesFolksonomiesAutomated methodsArtificial intelligenceInterdisciplinary issuesLinguistic issuesAuthors and users oftenclassify content differently
  • 21. Storing ContentInformation technology and network infrastructureSystems for archiving and managing contentInterfaces for entry, retrieval, & administrationDatabase, data warehouse, distributed databasesInformation repository, information systemKnowledge repository, knowledge mapPhysical libraries, digital libraries
  • 22. Retrieving ContentAccess to contentBrowser interfaceSearch engineExtraction toolsManipulation toolsAssembly toolsRetrieval system
  • 23. System User DiversityTools that are easy and intuitive use.System interfaces that can be customized.Systems that help people do their work.Content that is easy to find and access.Work processes that facilitate knowledge flow.Knowledge flow that is primarily horizontal.User diversity and flexibility are encouraged.System design plays a key rollin how people use systems.User-centric design can double the use of a system
  • 24. Intelligence FrameworkDirectionCollectionOrganizationAnalysisImplementationM. C. Escher (1957)
  • 25. Problem SpaceAdapted from Kurtz and Snowden (2003)
  • 26. Analysis MethodsComputer modelDecision analysisDeterministic modelDynamic modelDynamic programmingEmpirical modelGamming modelLinear programmingLogical modelMathematical modelMechanistic modelMental modelNonlinear programmingOperations researchPhysical modelQueuing modelScenario analysisScientific modelSimulation modelStatic modelStatistical modelStochastic modelAn inappropriate method may yield anelegant solution to an irrelevant problem
  • 27. Analyst DiversityObjective CriteriaProblem spaceType of problemAvailable techniquesSubjective CriteriaAwarenessDiversitySkillExperienceExpertiseMental modelBeliefGood analysts are born, not made
  • 28. Analysis Principles• Resources are required:time, effort, expertise, funding, capacity, technology, data,knowledge• Complexity is inherent: analysis is non-linear, involvesfeedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty• Modeling is known: techniques are well-understood;extensive literature for most disciplines• Management perspectives:understanding, trust, confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities• Implementation is uncertain: decision making, stakeholderinterests, unknown outcomesAnalysis combines science & computers; skill &technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition.
  • 29. Analysis Process28HierarchyRelationshipsIndicatorsReviewLogicComputationDebuggingReviewConceptualizationConstructionExecutionAttributesConsistencyReviewUncertaintyRepresentationReviewVerificationValidationOutputContentHuman elements
  • 30. Intelligence FrameworkDirectionCollectionOrganizationAnalysisImplementationM. C. Escher (1957)
  • 31. 30ImplementationCommunicationRoleGovernanceAccountabilityCompatibilityIndivisibilitySituationOutcomePoliciesMandateInfrastructurePlanExecutionLiabilityDecisionLegalSocialEconomicOrganizationalInteractionAuthoritySharingCollaborationNegotiationCompetitionAwarenessUnderstandingAgreementParticipationHuman elements
  • 32. Competitive Intelligenceis an Island of structurein an unstructured ocean• Managers• Sources• Librarians• System users• Analysts• Interactionalbert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca