A Fast-Changing World
Needs Agile Policies
Albert Simard
Defence R&D Canada
Presented to

INFONEX Strategic Policy Develop...
Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making

Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
1
Reality

New Reality

Accelerating change
Complex world
Agile framework

2
Reality

Traditional Policy Time Scale

Old Policy
5-7 years

Policy Change

New Policy

2-3 years

5-7 years

3
Adapting

Traditional Policy Change
Create Urgency
Establish Coalition
Develop Plan
Provide Incentives
Empower Action
Earl...
Technology Adoption

Reality

5
Time to Reach 50 Million Users

Reality

Million
Users
50
40
30
20

10
0

0

250

500

750

1000

1250 1500

Days

1750

2...
Reality

21st Century Challenges
Safety &
Security

Information
Society

Globalization

Accelerating
Change

International...
Reality

Responding to Change

Agile

Traditional
8
Reality

Agile Approach to Policy
Detect
Pattern

Adapt
(rapid)

Modular Approach

Probe
(continuous)

9
Environmental Change Life Cycle
Full
Too Late
Late

Data &
Knowledge

Middle
Early

Adaptation
Window

Detection

None

Or...
Adaptation Decision Framework
Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3)
Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), par...
Traditional Policy Development Cycle

Reality

Issue
Identification
Evaluation

Implementation

Environmental
Scan

Organi...
Reality

Agile Policy Framework
Probing

Adapting

(What do we do?)

(What’s happening?)

SenseMaking

(What does it mean?...
Outline
New Reality

Probing
Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
14
Probing

Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends)
Passive (monitoring, social networks)
Active (intelligence, soliciting)
Int...
Environmental Monitoring
Research

Cyberspace

Published
Literature

Monitor

search
filter
scan

Conferences

Media

Expe...
Monitoring Cyberspace
Anticipate emerging issue
Anticipate stakeholder actions
Discover new stakeholders
Discover potentia...
Social Networks

Probing

Monitoring must be focussed
18
Intelligence Sources
Public Domain
Government Documents
Annual reports
Analyst reports
Public databases
Speeches
Broadcast...
Source Diversity

Passive

Active

Probing

Increased visibility, awareness, or influence
Seen as active and competent pla...
Probing

Soliciting Inputs
Client interviews
Consultations
Expert opinion
Stakeholder surveys
User feedback
Workshops
Coll...
Probing

Internal Inputs
Mobilize
Knowledge
Create
Knowledge
Acquire
Content

Publish

Futures
Analysis
Corporate
Reportin...
Sharing Attributes

Probing

Incentives and motivation
Trust and safety
Organizational culture
Content security
Individual...
Outline
New Reality
Probing

Sense-Making
Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
24
Sense-Making

Sense-Making
Analysis
Synthesis
Interpretation
Validation

25
Analysis Spectrum

Sense-Making

Quantitative (irrefutable)
mathematics, logic, proof
science, engineering, technology
sta...
Analysis Principles
•

•

•

•

Sense-Making

Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding,
capacity, technolo...
Sense-Making

Two Approaches
Analysis: Using deduction to
differentiate and study
data, information, or knowledge to
deduc...
Sense-Making

Analysis Is a Human Activity
Collect information from people and organizations.
Organize data based on indiv...
Community of Practice

Sense-Making

People with common expertise, skill, or profession
(position, work, colleagues)
Gover...
Sense-Making

Communities Validate Knowledge
Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as
important as formal...
Sense-Making

Communities Emphasize Collaboration
Dialogue, conversations in groups
Sharing, exchanges among peers
Candor,...
Sense-Making

Harvesting Community Outputs
Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface
with communities, m...
Outline
New Reality
Probing
Sense-Making

Adapting
M. C. Escher (1957)
34
Adapting

Adapting
Structure (planning, integrating, interaction)
Approve (decision, authorizing)
Implement (steps, incent...
Adapting

Planning Change
Create vision
Determine objectives
Establish milestones
Schedule work
Integrate changes
Social...
Adapting

Integrating Change
Validated
Inputs

People

Governance

Processes

Technology

Content,
Services

Integrated
Ch...
Social Interaction Framework
Collaboration
Mutual

Negotiation

joint or peer production
partnership approach
high trust
d...
Adapting

Decision Maker Perspectives
Accountable for actions
Situational pressure
Broader view than analysis
Depth of und...
DRDC Environmental Management System
“Continual”
Improvement
Annual
Report

Event
response

Management
Review

Environment...
Main Messages
Traditional policy approaches are
too slow in a rapidly-changing
world.
Continuous probing monitors
effectiv...
albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca

Knowledge Services: A Synthesis of Best Practices

http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc1...
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A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies

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Describes a new approach for rapidly developing policies and strategies to keep pace with a fast-changing world.

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A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies

  1. 1. A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies Albert Simard Defence R&D Canada Presented to INFONEX Strategic Policy Development Ottawa, ON Nov 27-28, 2013
  2. 2. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 1
  3. 3. Reality New Reality Accelerating change Complex world Agile framework 2
  4. 4. Reality Traditional Policy Time Scale Old Policy 5-7 years Policy Change New Policy 2-3 years 5-7 years 3
  5. 5. Adapting Traditional Policy Change Create Urgency Establish Coalition Develop Plan Provide Incentives Empower Action Early Success Maintain Momentum Institutionalize Kotter (2002) Like great ships, government agencies are slow to change direction 4
  6. 6. Technology Adoption Reality 5
  7. 7. Time to Reach 50 Million Users Reality Million Users 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 Days 1750 2000 2250 6
  8. 8. Reality 21st Century Challenges Safety & Security Information Society Globalization Accelerating Change International Partnerships Complex Technologies Finite Resources Diverse Workforce US National Science Foundation (2001) Knowledge Economy Life-Long Learning Citizen Engagement Sustainable Development 7
  9. 9. Reality Responding to Change Agile Traditional 8
  10. 10. Reality Agile Approach to Policy Detect Pattern Adapt (rapid) Modular Approach Probe (continuous) 9
  11. 11. Environmental Change Life Cycle Full Too Late Late Data & Knowledge Middle Early Adaptation Window Detection None Origin Start Finish Time 10
  12. 12. Adaptation Decision Framework Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3) Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3) Available data: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3) Resource implications: high (1), medium (2), low (3) Risks of inaction: low (1), medium (2), high (3) Likely impact: minimal (1), moderate (2), significant (3) 6-11points - DEFER; 12-17 points - MAYBE; 18-24 points - ACT No hard answers; judgement and experience are necessary 11
  13. 13. Traditional Policy Development Cycle Reality Issue Identification Evaluation Implementation Environmental Scan Organization Decision (Australian Policy Handbook) Strategy Development Consultation Coordination 12
  14. 14. Reality Agile Policy Framework Probing Adapting (What do we do?) (What’s happening?) SenseMaking (What does it mean?) 13
  15. 15. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 14
  16. 16. Probing Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends) Passive (monitoring, social networks) Active (intelligence, soliciting) Internal (documents, expertise) 15
  17. 17. Environmental Monitoring Research Cyberspace Published Literature Monitor search filter scan Conferences Media Experience Communities of practice Individuals Practitioners Share Incentives Corroborate Document Ad hoc Expertise Office apps. Repository Store (DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012) Probing Validation 16
  18. 18. Monitoring Cyberspace Anticipate emerging issue Anticipate stakeholder actions Discover new stakeholders Discover potential partners Learn from others Learn about new technology Monitor institutional changes Monitor public opinion Find useful information Detect new risks Only way to keep up with accelerating change
  19. 19. Social Networks Probing Monitoring must be focussed 18
  20. 20. Intelligence Sources Public Domain Government Documents Annual reports Analyst reports Public databases Speeches Broadcast media Print media Trade associations World-Wide Web Probing Non-Public Domain Change of status Human intelligence Trade shows Ask employees Ask clients Observation Aerial survey 19
  21. 21. Source Diversity Passive Active Probing Increased visibility, awareness, or influence Seen as active and competent player Feedback on user needs and applications Leverage the value of organizational resources Increase partnership and business opportunities Organizational business or mandate Influencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior Advocating a position, agenda, or policy Intervening in stakeholder or social activity 20
  22. 22. Probing Soliciting Inputs Client interviews Consultations Expert opinion Stakeholder surveys User feedback Workshops Colloquia 21
  23. 23. Probing Internal Inputs Mobilize Knowledge Create Knowledge Acquire Content Publish Futures Analysis Corporate Reporting Individual Learning Produce Intelligence Operations Environmental Monitoring Share Experience incentives Office apps. Repository Capture (DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012) SenseMaking 22
  24. 24. Sharing Attributes Probing Incentives and motivation Trust and safety Organizational culture Content security Individual privacy Different expertise Control and hoarding Large distances Different languages 23
  25. 25. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 24
  26. 26. Sense-Making Sense-Making Analysis Synthesis Interpretation Validation 25
  27. 27. Analysis Spectrum Sense-Making Quantitative (irrefutable) mathematics, logic, proof science, engineering, technology statistics, data, facts, measurement collaboration, validation, management expertise, experience, judgement opinion, perception, bias belief, emotion, values Qualitative (no evidence) 26
  28. 28. Analysis Principles • • • • Sense-Making Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding, capacity, technology, data, knowledge Complexity is inherent: strategic analysis is non-linear, involves feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty Methods are known: techniques are well-understood; extensive literature for most disciplines Management perspectives: understanding, trust, confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities Analysis combines science & computers; skill & technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition. 27
  29. 29. Sense-Making Two Approaches Analysis: Using deduction to differentiate and study data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or more precise meaning or understanding. (Scientific approach) Synthesis: Using induction to integrate and study many processes as a whole to infer higher-level meaning or understanding. (Systems People tend to be good at analysis approach) or synthesis; few are good at both. 28
  30. 30. Sense-Making Analysis Is a Human Activity Collect information from people and organizations. Organize data based on individual perspectives. Classify issues based on human understanding. Select analytical methods using expert knowledge. Interpret results through cognitive reasoning. Validate results through dialogue and collaboration. Experience and judgement are essential 29
  31. 31. Community of Practice Sense-Making People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues) Government, department Sector, branch, division Policy analysts, regulators Finance, purchasing Scientists, lawyers Information technologists 30
  32. 32. Sense-Making Communities Validate Knowledge Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as important as formal knowledge. Knowledge is tacit as well as explicit. Transferring tacit knowledge is more effective through human interaction. Knowledge is social as well as individual. Today’s knowledge is the result of centuries of collective research. Knowledge is changing at an accelerating rate. It takes a community of people to keep up with new concepts, practices, and technology. 31
  33. 33. Sense-Making Communities Emphasize Collaboration Dialogue, conversations in groups Sharing, exchanges among peers Candor, freedom of expression Trust, safety, honesty Transparency, openness Agreed rules of conduct Diversity, flexibility, outliers Equality, meritocracy of ideas Collective, not individual benefit 32
  34. 34. Sense-Making Harvesting Community Outputs Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface with communities, minimize duplication, inform communities Leader: transfer community outputs; Identify emerging trends, prioritize issues Sponsor: endorse community outputs; bridge between the community and the organization, provide support, minimize organizational barriers Champion: ensure adoption of community outputs; communicate purpose, promote the community 33
  35. 35. Outline New Reality Probing Sense-Making Adapting M. C. Escher (1957) 34
  36. 36. Adapting Adapting Structure (planning, integrating, interaction) Approve (decision, authorizing) Implement (steps, incentives, sustaining) 35
  37. 37. Adapting Planning Change Create vision Determine objectives Establish milestones Schedule work Integrate changes Social Interaction Document results Recommend action 36
  38. 38. Adapting Integrating Change Validated Inputs People Governance Processes Technology Content, Services Integrated Change 37
  39. 39. Social Interaction Framework Collaboration Mutual Negotiation joint or peer production partnership approach high trust diverse, synergistic Adapting mutual agreement adversarial approach nominal trust structured, formal Interests Sharing Autonomous leverage knowledge passive approach moderate trust benign, supportive Competition defence or victory aggressive approach no trust secretive, hostile Compatible Conflicting Goals 38
  40. 40. Adapting Decision Maker Perspectives Accountable for actions Situational pressure Broader view than analysis Depth of understanding Involvement in planning Confidence in results Risk tolerance Previous experience Belief system Emotions 39
  41. 41. DRDC Environmental Management System “Continual” Improvement Annual Report Event response Management Review Environmental Policy Planning Checking Implementation 40
  42. 42. Main Messages Traditional policy approaches are too slow in a rapidly-changing world. Continuous probing monitors effectiveness and detects emerging patterns. Sense-making interprets and validates patterns and trends. Agile policies are essential to keeping pace with a dynamic world. 41
  43. 43. albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca Knowledge Services: A Synthesis of Best Practices http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc121/p536618_A1b.pdf

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