Alaska's Natural Gas Potential

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Presentation given at the 2012 Alaska LNG Summit by Mark Myers, Vice Chancellor Research University of Alaska Fairbanks & former Director of U.S. Geological Survey.• US market transformation: Low gas prices and declining import needs of Lower 48.
• Valdez LNG economics and global gas demand forecasts
• Post-Fukushima: Asia in need of an energy alternative and the Alaskan LNG answer – how does Valdez LNG compare to Japan’s gas supply alternatives?
• Growing interest in LNG exports from the USA: market opportunities
• A spotlight on Alaska’s vast energy resources – tapping into a giant

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  • It is in the potential for undiscovered resources that the gasline is so important for Alaska and the future of the North American gas supply. This slide offers some comparisons of Alaska’s North Slope and the mature gas province of Wyoming. Alaska is one of the United State’s sleeping giants. While Wyoming has seen almost 20,000 exploration wells with almost 250 wells drilled per 1,000 square miles. The North Slope has barely been explored. We seen only 500 wells that might be generously described as exploration with just 3 wells per 1,000 square miles. The next slide shows why this perspective is so important.
  • Turning to unconventional resource potential: Little is said about these resources because their development is fairly remote and the technology to develop these resources is only now emerging. It is these resources that correspond to the unconventional resources estimates that we recently are hearing about in the trade press. In the far west of the North Slope, exploration of coalbed methane is underway for possible local consumption. In my opinion, the most exciting of these unconventional gas resources are gas hydrates Exciting because the North Slope is one of the few places on the planet where the resource is found in shallow, easy to reach depths. The resource is huge!
  • Basin centered gas and timeline
  • Joint Effort NETL, USGS, BP, ARSC, UAF U of Arizona and others
  • Alaska's Natural Gas Potential

    1. 1. UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 1
    2. 2. Alaska’s Natural Gas PotentialAlaska LNG SummitMark Myers, PhDVice Chancellor for ResearchUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks13 September 2012 UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 2
    3. 3. The North Slope is Not aMature Petroleum Basin!Question: What do the NorthSlope and Samuel Clementsshare in common?Answer: A premature obituary It has been reported that I was seriously ill--it was another man; dying--it was another man; dead--the other man again...As far as I can see, nothing remains to be reported, except that I have become a foreigner. When you hear it, dont you believe it. And dont take the trouble to deny it. Merely just raise the American flag on our house in Hartford and let it talk. - Letter to Frank E. Bliss, 11/4/1897 UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 3
    4. 4. Alaska’s North Slope is Very Under-Explored UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 4 4
    5. 5. North Slope Stratigraphy and Petroleum SystemsSource:AK DOG UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 5
    6. 6. USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 6
    7. 7. USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 7
    8. 8. Natural Gas Classifications • Resource Categories • Proven Reserve • Undiscovered Resource  Type of Accumulation  Conventional Natural Gas  Associated with oil  Non-associated with oil  Unconventional Natural Gas  Methane Hydrates  Basin Centered Gas  Shale Gas  Coal Bed Methane UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 8
    9. 9. Advancing Resource Assessment From In- Place to Technically and Economically Recoverable Resource Estimates UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSSource: USGS 9
    10. 10. North Slope Land Ownership and Known Petroleum Accumulations a Se c hi Beauf Chuk ort Se a coas tal pl ain NPRAASR C ANWR 1002 footh ills ANWR ASRC Noatak Gates of the ArcticSource: AK DOG UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 10
    11. 11. 35 TCF of Natural Gas Reserves and 5 BB Oil UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSSource: AK DOG 2009 11
    12. 12. North Slope and Alaskan Arctic OCS Conventional Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSCompiled by AK DOG 12
    13. 13. Alaska’s Unconventional Gas Resources UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 13 13
    14. 14. Shale Oil and Gas Area of Potential Interest Shale Oil and Gas – Hue Shale/HRZ ea hi S Beauf ukc ort Se Ch a coas tal plain NPRA AS RC ANWR 1002 footh ills ANWR ASRC Noatak Gates of the Arctic UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSFrom P Decker AK DNR (mature area after Peters and others, 2006) 14
    15. 15. Shale Oil and GasArea of Potential Interest Shale Oil and Gas – Shublik and Lower Kingak Formations ea hi S Beauf ukc ort Se Ch a coas tal pl ain NPRA ASR C ANWR 1002 footh ills ANWR ASRC Noatak Gates of the ArcticFrom P Decker AK Dog (mature area after Peters and others, 2006) UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 15
    16. 16. The Evolution of Commercial Natural Gas Production Natural Gas Hydrates? Shale Gas Tight Gas Sands Coalbed Methane Non-Associated Conventional Conventional Associated With Oil UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 16
    17. 17. Factors Necessary For Commercialization of North Slope Unconventional Petroleum Resources Identification Unconventional natural of Resource Production gas delineation on the Technology North Slope needs to evolve from resource identification to production testing Favorable EconomicsModeling and reservoir production simulations of North Slope hydrateaccumulations within high quality sandstone reservoirs indicate thatproduction using existing technologies could be commercially viable UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 17
    18. 18. Shale Oil and Natural Gas Hydrates – Largest Known Potential Sources of Oil and Gas UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/feats/2008/exploration_innovation.html 18
    19. 19. Great Bear Great Bear Petroleum Petroleumapproximate landapproximate land position position UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 19
    20. 20. 70 acres total surface impact (14 pads, 5 acres each)  17,920 acres of subsurface development (2 mile-long laterals on each side of road times 7 miles length times 640 acres/mi2)(Canadian Business Resources (courtesy Lynn Helms NDIC, DMR, 2011 ) UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 20
    21. 21. Natural GasHydrates UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSSource: USGS 21
    22. 22. Three Proposed Methods For Producing Natural Gas Hydrates or CO2 UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSModified from USGS/BLM /DGGS 22
    23. 23. Estimated In-place Resource Alaska gas hydrate resource assessment - Estimated volume of gas trapped within permafrost associated gas hydrate accumulations in northern Alaska UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSSource: USGS 23
    24. 24. Mt. Elbert Stratigraphic Test Well – Milne Point in February, 2007 Significantly Advanced Our Knowledge of North Slope Hydrates •Confirmed Seismic Identification of Accumulation •430 Feet of Core Recovered •Pressure and Short Term Test Data •Well Successfully Produced Natural Gas Hydrates to Surface DOE and Hunter (2007) UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 24
    25. 25. 2011- 2012 Hydrate Test Program – Prudhoe Bay • Six week successful short term production flow test and technology demonstration • CO2 and N2 injection with recovery of CH4 UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 25
    26. 26. North Slope and Alaskan Arctic OCS Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKSCompiled by AK DOG 26
    27. 27. Shale Oil and Natural Gas Hydrates – Largest Known Potential Sources of Oil and Gas UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/feats/2008/exploration_innovation.html 27
    28. 28. UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 28
    29. 29. UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS 29

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