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Scott Goldsmith - Alaska's economic future; what role for a North Slope Natural gas pipeline

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ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE?

ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE: WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE?

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  • 1. ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE:WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE? Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage May 10, 2011 Public Forum on the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Sponsored by the Federal Coordinator Anchorage, Alaska
  • 2. PETROLEUM DRIVES THE ECONOMY
  • 3. PETROLEUM TOURISM •Jobs •Complexity
  • 4. HOW TO GET $5 BILLION IN STATEREVENUE FROM OTHER SOURCES $6,667 / OZ. GOLD $33 / SALMON $3,333 / TOURIST
  • 5. OUR ECONOMIC FORTUNES ARE TIED TO PETROLEUM (MMBPD)
  • 6. COULD THE FUTURE ALASKAECONOMY LOOK LIKE THIS?
  • 7. THE NON-PETROLEUM STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE • Natural Resource Development • Value Added Processing • Economic Diversification • Infrastructure Investments in Power and Transportation • Footloose Industry • Renewable Energy
  • 8. DOES PETROLEUM HAVE A FUTURE IN ALASKA? Oil (Billion Gas Barrels) (TCF)PRODUCTION TO DATE 16 -KNOWN STATE: Colville-Canning 4.5 37.5TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE 33.6 148.8 ANWR 1002 10.3 3.8 OCS Beaufort 6.9 32.1 OCS Chukchi 15.5 60.1 NPRA .9 52.8OTHER ? ?
  • 9. PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION JOBS: BOOM AND BUST
  • 10. EMPLOYMENT IN THE OIL PATCH TOTAL Barrels per Worker
  • 11. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT: BEYOND CONSTRUCTION• KNOWN GAS• NEW EXPLORATION• OIL PRODUCTION ANDDISCOVERIES• COST OF OPERATING IN OILPATCH• OUTSIDE THE OIL PATCH
  • 12. GAS PRICE PROJECTIONSource: IEA, AEO 2011.
  • 13. GAS REVENUE PROJECTION (Billion)
  • 14. GAS VS OIL REVENUES (Million)$10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 2001 / 2021 2003 / 2023 2005 / 2025 2007 / 2027 2009 / 2029 GAS (2021-2030) OIL (2001-2010)
  • 15. REVENUE FROM OTHER OIL •ANWR •OCS •NPRA •Unconventional Oil
  • 16. STATE GF REVENUE PROJECTION
  • 17. STATE GF: USE OF SAVINGS
  • 18. STATE GF WITH GAS REVENUE
  • 19. STATE GF: BALANCED SOLUTION
  • 20. PERMANENT FUND
  • 21. ALASKA’S ECONOMIC FUTURE:WHAT ROLE FOR A NORTH SLOPE NATURAL GAS PIPELINE? Scott Goldsmith Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage May 10, 2011 Public Forum on the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Sponsored by the Federal Coordinator Anchorage, Alaska