Fraser institute

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Fraser institute presents to the Meet Alaska Conference. January 21, 2011

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Fraser institute

  1. 1. Global Petroleum Survey 2010ALLIANCE MEET ALASKA January, 2011 Fred McMahon Vice President Research, International The Fraser Institute
  2. 2. Project Objectives Are To:• Rank jurisdictions according to barriers to upstream investment.• Identify issues that jurisdictions need to address in order to attract more greater shares of investment.• Identify year-to-year changes to jurisdictions’ apparent relative attractiveness for upstream investment. (Valuable information for both business planners and policy makers)
  3. 3. The Survey Questions
  4. 4. Factors Addressed by Questions (1)1. Fiscal Terms2. Taxation Regime3. Environmental Uncertainty4. Regulatory Uncertainty5. Cost of Regulatory Compliance6. Protected Areas7. Socio-economic Agreements8. Trade Barriers
  5. 5. Factors Addressed by Questions (2)9. Labour Regulations and Employment Agreements10. Quality of infrastructure11. Geological Database12. Labor Availability13. Disputed Land Claims14. Political Stability15. Security16. Regulatory Duplication and Inconsistencies17. Legal system
  6. 6. Possible Responses to Each Question:1. Encourages investment2. Is not a deterrent to investment3. Is a mild deterrent to investment4. Is a strong deterrent to investment5. Would not invest due to this criterion
  7. 7. • Scoring Methodology
  8. 8. Composite Indices (Used to Facilitate Comparison)• All-Inclusive Composite Index - Based on average of responses to all 17 questions• Commercial Environment Index - Fiscal terms, taxation, trade barriers, quality of infrastructure, & labor availability• Regulatory Climate Index - Based on average of responses to the 6 regulatory questions• Geopolitical Risk Index - From “Political Stability” and “Security” questions
  9. 9. 2010 Participation• 645 questionnaires received; up from 577 in 2009• Over 364 companies represented.• Participating upstream petroleum companies responsible for more than half of global 2009 E&P expenditures according to International Energy Agency estimates.• 133 jurisdictions ranked (vs. 143 in 2009, 81 in 2008, 54 in 2007).
  10. 10. Position Held by Respondent Company President, Other, 7.4% 18.8%Consultant, 32.2% Vice President, 12.1% Manager, 29.5%
  11. 11. The Global Picture
  12. 12. The Global Results Map
  13. 13. Focus on Alaska
  14. 14. U S -S ou th D 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 U ako S ta - U Te S x U - I as S lli U - W no S - M yo is is mi si ng U ss S U U ipp O S S- i ffMild deterrent to investment sh -O U or k ta e— US lah h G - A om ul f o la b a f M am ex a U ic o U S S -A -O U h S rka io -L n o sa U U uis s S S i - N - K an a o r an t s U h D as S ak - U M ot U S - on a S tStrong deterrent to investment - W Mic ana U e h U S st V iga S - n O Ne irg ff w in sh i or Me a Offshore AL e— x i U c U S Ala o S -C s - P o ka en lor All-Inclusive Composite Index: US n a U sy d o S U - K lva S O en n ia ff U tu c Alaska sh S o r - A ky e — la U s S Atl ka - C an a tic U lifo U S rn S US - F ia O lo ff - N rid sh e or w Y a e— o Pa rk ci ficWould not pursue investment due to this factor
  15. 15. All inclusive: Canadian Comparaison10090 Alaska80 AL Offshore70605040302010 0 CA CA CA CA AL CA CA CA CA CA AL CA O US -M -O -Y -B -Q -S -N -N -A -N ffs uk rit as -2 nt ue ew ov lb or an ho 01 er ar is th on ka be a it o fo h re ta io 0 w Sc tc un c ba Co - es 20 he ot dl tT lu 10 ia w an m an er d bi r it a or ie s Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor
  16. 16. All-Inclusive Composite Index: 2010 and 20095040302010 0 AL 2010 AL 2009 Offshore-2010 Offshore-2009 Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not pursue investment due to this factor
  17. 17. • Alaska Focus on Alaska• US—Alaska (Offshore • Norway—North Sea AL) (Norway-NS)• South Australia • Norway• Western Australia • United Kingdom—North• Australia Offshore Sea (UK-NS)• Indonesia • Russia• Alberta • DRC• BC• Newfoundland • Iraq• Yukon • UAE• NWT • Venezuela• Texas • Brazil• US— Atlantic• US—Pacific• US—Gulf of Mexico
  18. 18. Would not invest a el zu ne Ve i a s us R q ia fic Ir a nes ci do Pa In e— or RC h D ff s O SAll-Inclusive Composite Index U l Strong deterrent to investment zi Alaska ra B ic T an t W l N At — S U ka s la A rta AL e lb r e— A ho f fs O C d B ay l an w d or n N fou S ew -N Offshore AL N ay w or N re AE n ho U ff s ko O a- ia Mild deterrent to investment Yu rali al t tr us us A NS n A alia ico - er t r ex K t U es Aus f M W o U- th lf A ou Gu S — U- e A hor f fs O s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  19. 19. Commercial Environment Index10090 Alaska80 Offshore AL70605040302010 0 Te US AU Au AU BC Of Yu UK Ne A No UA No NW Al O Br O DR In Ira Ru Ve f f d xa s — -So str -W fs k ho on - N wfo lbe r rw E rw T as k fsh azi l fsh C on q ss n e G al e S un ta ay ay a or or es ia zu ul uth ia- ste re — dl -N e— e— ia el fo A O a f M us ffs rn A AL an S At Pa d la ci ex tra ho us nt fi c ic lia re tra ic o l ia Mild deterrent to investment Strong deterrent to investment Would not invest
  20. 20. a el zu ne V e ia fic ss ci Ru Pa q re — Would not invest Ira hoRegulatory Climate Index f f s ia O es n do In Offshore AL C DR i l AL az e— Br r ho t ic ffs an O ka Atl as e — A l hor Strong deterrent to investment ffs Alaska O T NW ay rw d N o rta lan be nd A l fo u S w -N N e ay rw No BC re E ho UA S ffs -N O a- U K r al i lia ic o t r a ex Mild deterrent to investment st A u n A us f M k o th l f o l ia Y u o u Gu t r a -S e — u s A U hor rn A ffs te O es -W AU s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  21. 21. a el zu Would not invest ne Ve q Ira C R D a siGeopolitical Risk Index us ia R s ne do In l zi ra fic B ci ta er Pa lb e— A r ho ffs Strong deterrent to investm ent O T W N E A U d an C dl B un fo ew e o Offshore AL Alaska N or xic a sh e sk ff M la -O of A ia f al ul tr G us e— A r h o AL ffs — O re ho ffs O S -N K U s S xa -N Mild deterrent to investm ent Te ay ia or w al tr N ay us w A a or tern ali N tr es us -W A ic U th nt A ou tla -S A U — A re ho ffs O n ko Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  22. 22. Individual questions
  23. 23. a el zu ne Ve a si ic us nt R la At Would not invest q — ifi c Ira ore ac h P ffs — O ore h ffs ia O es n do In E A a U t erFiscal Terms lb d A ay an w dl or n Strong deterrent to investment N fou ew N C R D l zi NS ra - B ay w or Offshore AL N S -N K . U L T —A W N ore h ffs O a o sk ic A la ex n fM ko fo Yu ul G re C e— o B o r ffsh al ia Mild deterrent to investment h tr ffs -O s Alaska O al ia Au tr rn us te A es ia -W al U tr A s us A xa th Te ou -S U A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  24. 24. a Would not invest el zu ne Ve a si s Ru q Ira sia ne do c In ifi il ac a z —P Br re ho S ff s - N O ay rw No y Strong deterrent to investment a rw No kaTaxation Alaska as a tic Al Se tlan rth A So re— ho ff s O a rt be Al d an E dl o UA un ic fo ex w fM Ne fo ul C —G DR re ho A L Offshore AL ff s e— O r ho ff s re O ho T ff s -O NW Mild deterrent to investment lia ra lia st ra Au st Au rn lia BC te ra e s ust -W A AU uth o -S AU s xa Te k on Yu 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  25. 25. fi c ci Pa — re L Would not invest ho — A f fs e O horEnvironmental Regulations ff s O ia t ic Offshore AL ss ela l an R u zu At ne e— V e hor ff s O ay rw N o ka NS as - A l ay rw Strong deterrent to investment No Alaska BC il az Br q Ir a r t a be Al S re - N ia s h o o UK s f ne O f ic d o ia- ex In r a l M of st lf Au G u li a T e — tra s N W hor A u ff s th l ia O ou tr a -S us A U on rn A Mild deterrent to investment k te d Y u e s lan -W nd A U fou w Ne C DR E UA s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  26. 26. a el zu ne Ve Would not invest a si fic us ci R Pa q — Ir a or e h f fs O ic RC ntRegulatory Uncertainty D ta tla e r —A lb A or e h ffs O l zi Offshore AL ra B nd Strong deterrent to investment T la W nd N ou AL f ew e— N or h f fs O a sk Alaska la A ay w or N S N AE - U ay o w ic or ex N fM C fo B S ul N G K- r e— U ho re ffs ho O n ff s lia Mild deterrent to investment ko -O t ra Yu alia us tr A us ut h ia A al So tr U- us A s A n xa t e r Te es W U- A 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  27. 27. a el zu ne Ve a si fi c us ci Would not invest R Pa q — Ira ore h ffsCost of Regulatory Compliance O T a W i N es n do In C B ay w NS Strong deterrent to investment or - N ay w or N a L Alaska s k —A la A ore nd h a ffs dl O oun f ew N ta er lb A l zi ic nt Offshore AL ra la B S At -N — K re U ho re ffs ho Mild deterrent to investment O ffs C O R a- D al i o tr ic us ex A n fM ko fo Yu ul G alia E A re — s tr l ia U ho Au stra ffs h O out Au -S te rn U A es -W U A s xa Te 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

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