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Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
Weekly Review  27.12.08
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Weekly Review 27.12.08

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Weekly review of stocks

Weekly review of stocks

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  • 1. Weekly Review December 27, 2008
  • 2. Angel Broking TM Service Truly Personalized December 27, 2008 Sensex sinks back below 10k on profit booking, weak global cues The Indian stock markets opened this holiday truncated week in the backdrop of a strong rally over the previous two weeks wherein the Sensex had gained almost 13%. During this part of the year, usually FIIs across the globe are not very active players in the markets as they are vactioning on account of Christmas. However, this time round, FIIs opted to book some profits in wake of the continued 'not so good' news on the global front. While the US consumer spending was down in Nov 2008 for the fifth consecutive month, albeit better than forecasts, the US unemployment rate came in at 26-year highs. Japan's auto production also registered its steepest drop in the last 40 years in Nov 2008 owing to the US slowdown. All this was not taken kindly by market participants as concerns pertaining to the bleak global economic outlook resurfaced. Profit booking marked the week at the Indian bourses with indices closing negative in all the 4 trading sessions of the week. Poor global sentiments and derivatives expiry added to the weakness and volatility. However, intra-day intermittent rallies were witnessed on expectations of another interest rate cut by the RBI and likely announcement of a second fiscal stimulus package by the government. But, these did not sustain. The FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs620cr in the first 3 trading sessions of the week, provisional numbers indicate they were net sellers of Rs345cr in the cash market on Friday as well. For the week, the BSE Sensex lost 7.6%, while the NSE Nifty lost 7.2%. Inflation figure for the week ended December 13, 2008 came in lower at 6.61% (6.84%), falling further to a 9-month low. This figure is expected to dip even more in the coming weeks, as a slowing global and domestic economy could result in lower demand and inflation settling at 3-4% levels by March 2009. Thus, inflation, which till recently was a matter of concern with crude prices hovering close to US $150/barrel mark, is no longer a concern. Boosting investment, demand and credit availability are the issues that need to be emphasised at the current juncture and the recent fiscal and monetary stimulus packages are ample reflections of this. We believe even though In the medium term there would be a correction in the growth rate of the Indian economy, going forward, given favourable demographics and huge middle class, the structural growth story of India has not changed and we remain positive on the 'India Story'. BSE Oil and Gas Index - Short-term non-enthusing, long-term gains intact The BSE Oil and Gas Index closed in the red this week losing 8.3% week-over-week (wow) and under-performing the Sensex, which ended 7.6% lower. RIL (55.9% weightage in the index) lost a whopping 10.2%, ONGC (16.2% weightage) 9.2%, GAIL (6.0% weightage) 4.9% and RPL (5.6% weightage) 4.7%. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) outperformed the Index with IOC (3.2% weightage) losing just 0.8%, BPCL (2.9% weightage) 2.8% and HPCL (2.7% weightage) 1.9%. Cairn India (3.6% weightage) was the only oil stock that ended 4.5% higher due to crude gaining 11.9% wow. Global slowdown has seen a decline in crude prices, petrochem margins and GRMs, which has impacted upstream companies (ONGC and Cairn India) and integrated oil companies like RIL. However, softening crude prices and strong Rupee v/s the USD has helped OMCs. We believe it would be status quo for upstream, refining and petrochem companies in the near term, though in the medium term the segment offers good prospects. Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date; FII activity during the Week Rs crore Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website As Cash Stock Index Net on (Equity) Futures Futures Activity Dec 19 463 (51) 324 735 Indices Jan Dec. Dec. Weekly YTD Dec 22 (224) (40) (489) (752) 01, 08 19, 08 26, 08 (% chg) Dec 23 (271) (385) (553) (1,209) BSE 30 20,287 10,100 9,329 (7.6) (54.0) Dec 24 (119) 455 (921) (584) NSE 6,139 3,078 2,857 (7.2) (53.5) Nasdaq 2,652 1,564 1,530 (2.2) (42.3) Net (151) (20) (1,638) (1,810) DOW 13,265 8,579 8,516 (0.7) (35.8) Mutual Fund activity during the Week Rs crore Nikkei 15,308 8,589 8,740 1.8 (42.9) As on Purchase Sales Net Activity (Equity) HangSeng 27,813 15,128 14,184 (6.2) (49.0) Dec 19 905 610 295 Straits Times 3,482 1,795 1,726 (3.9) (50.4) Dec 22 476 313 163 Shanghai Composite 5,262 2,018 1,852 (8.3) (64.8) Dec 23 345 441 (96) KLSE Composite 1,445 876 867 (1.0) (40.0) Jakarta Composite 2,746 1,348 1,341 (0.5) (51.2) Dec 24 736 399 337 KOSPI Composite 1,897 1,181 1,118 (5.3) (41.1) Net 2,461 1,763 699 Sectoral Indices BANKEX 11,418 5,631 5,211 (7.5) (54.4) BSE AUTO 5,667 2,562 2,364 (7.7) (58.3) BSE IT 4,530 2,347 2,149 (8.4) (52.5) BSE PSU 10,468 5,394 5,149 (4.5) (50.8) Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 3. Angel Broking TM Fundamental Focus Service Truly Personalized Price - Rs101 Indraprastha Gas - Neutral Company Update Peaking out domestic gas. This leaves them with R-LNG as the only option for incremental growth. However, this would increase gas cost Indraprastha Gas (IGL), a retail gas distribution company, has for incumbent CGD players like IGL. underperformed the benchmark indices as well as the Oil and Gas index over the last 2-3 years by a substantial margin. The Authorisation issues impact IGL’s expansion plans: IGL scenario continues to be bleak for IGL owing to headwinds has formed a joint venture with Siti Energy and plans to expand such as higher capital expenditure and slowdown in CNG into new geographies such as Ghaziabad, Panipat and Sonipat conversions impacting Earnings growth going ahead. in Haryana on nomination basis. However, PNGRB guidelines Declining Return Ratios and continuance of Regulatory could impact IGL's expansion plans significantly as the overhang over the company’s operations is also likely to regulator plans to offer newer geographies on competitive prevent re-rating of the stock. bidding basis. Thus, delay in authorisation and intensifying competition could affect IGL's expansion plans. Regulations to rein in excessive Margins: On account of enjoying monopolistic position in the sector and unregulated Outlook and Valuation margins, IGL has been registering high EBITDA Margins in IGL is currently on a capex spree (it is almost doubling its GFA excess of 40% and RoCE ranging from 38% to 45%. However, capacity over the next two years) in wake of the upcoming the period of unregulated Margins is about to cease with the Commonwealth Games and increasing demand for CNG. PNGRB guidelines ushering in regulations to limit Network However, we continue to have concerns over IGL’s pricing policy and Compression tariffs with Marketing Margins being left out due to which it has been earning exorbitant margins. We have presuming it will be self-regulated due to competitive forces. valued IGL using DCF methodology and have arrived at a Further, IGL’s Marketing exclusivity is also likely to end post fair value of Rs105. At Rs101, the stock is trading at 7.0x and FY2011. Thereon, a level playing field for all players who would 6.9x FY2009E and FY2010E Earnings. We believe IGL’s see IGL sourcing gas at higher prices leading to squeeze in it’s inability to pass through higher gas costs and declining Return Marketing Margins. Ratios are likely to be a drag on its performance going ahead. Unjustified returns for low-risk business model: On Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock. account of earning super-normal returns - generated returns of more than 42% on core assets in FY2008 - IGL has fully Key Financials recovered its investments. IGL’s returns exceed the risk-return Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E trade off involved in the city gas distribution (CGD) business. Net Sales 614.1 706.0 844.1 939.5 However, going ahead, we believe such super-normal returns would temper due to increase in gas costs, competition or the % chg 17.9 15.0 19.6 11.3 regulator interfering to cap the returns. Net Profit 138.0 174.5 202.5 204.6 APM gas price hike imminent: IGL gets 2 mmscmd of APM % chg 30.0 26.5 16.1 1.1 gas (1.9 mmscmd for CNG and 0.1 mmscmd for PNG) for its OPM (%) 41.6 42.5 41.9 40.8 operations in the NCT region of Delhi, which helps it post robust performance. However, going ahead, declining APM gas EPS (Rs) 9.9 12.5 14.5 14.6 production and exhaustion of current supply allocation is likely P/E (x) 10.2 8.1 7.0 6.9 to increase gas prices for the company. Similarly, the supply P/BV (x) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.7 contract with GAIL is also due to renewal towards end CY2010, which could also increase gas costs for the company. RoE (%) 29.5 30.3 28.8 24.8 RoCE (%) 41.8 41.2 40.1 34.6 Gas Utilisation Policy a dampner to CGD business: The recently announced Gas Utilisation Policy (GUP) favours the EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.4 Power and Fertiliser industry over the CGD business as first EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.2 3.6 3.3 claimants of the upcoming domestic gas. Thus, the GUP has Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on Dec.27,2008; Detailed diminished chances of CGD incumbents to have a pie of Company Report to be released shortly. Research Analyst - Deepak Pareek / Amit Vora For Private Circulation Only 2 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798
  • 4. Angel Broking TM Fundamental Focus Service Truly Personalized Price - Rs231 Piramal Healthcare - Buy Target Price - Rs340 Event Update Minrad International: Small but Strategic fit Inhalation Anaesthetic Market Piramal Healthcare announced its definitive merger agreement The global Inhalation Anaesthetic market is estimated at US with Minrad International Inc, a provider of generic inhalation $1,050mn (CY2007) having five gas molecules with the US anaesthetic, for a total consideration of US $40mn. Piramal market accounting for 50% share. Sevoflurane currently has Healthcare had entered the Inhalation Anaesthetic segment the lion's share of the total Inhalation Anaesthetic market with through acquisition of the Rhodia IA business in FY2005. It 72% followed by Desflurane having 20% share. The US currently produces Halothane and Isoflurane at its facility in Inhalation Anaesthetic market is dominated by few players like India. With the Minrad acquisition, Piramal will have all five Abbot, Baxter and Minrad. Minrad's market share is currently in products, viz. Desflurane, Sevoflurane, Enflurane, Isoflurane low single digits and with the acquisition by Piramal Healthcare and Halothane of the Anaesthetic segment under its portfolio it expects to increase it by 10-12% going forward on the back of making it the third largest player after Abbott and Baxter in the expansion in vaporizers installation, investment in working US Inhalation Anaesthetic market. capital and global material sourcing. Contours of the Deal: As per the agreement, Minrad will Outlook and Valuation merge with a newly incorporated wholly-owned subsidiary of Piramal Healthcare has been a key entrant in the CMG space. Piramal. The transaction is conditioned upon approval by Over the last few years, the segment has been the key growth Minrad's stockholders and other customary closing conditions. driver for the company. We expect the company's Revenues to The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2009. Out of grow at a CAGR of 14.8% over FY2008-10E to Rs3,751cr and the US $40mn consideration, which will be raised through Net Profit to post CAGR of 18.6% over the mentioned period to internal accruals and debt, Piramal Healthcare will pay Equity Rs468.9cr. At Rs231, the stock is trading at 10.7x FY2009E and consideration of US $5.9mn (at $0.12 per share), assume 10.2x FY2010 Earnings. We maintain a Buy on the stock with existing debt and other charges of US $3.3mn and redeem a Target Price of Rs340, which implies a Target multiple of convertible notes of US $30.8mn. The company also plans to 15x FY2010E EPS. infuse additional US $12mn as working capital investment. Management expects acquisition to be EPS accretive in FY2010: Piramal Healthcare intends to turn the acquisition Key Financials (Consolidated) profitable in its first year of operation by rationalizing costs across Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E the value chain and through working capital management. Management expects Minrad to clock Revenues of US $65mn Net Sales 2,420 2,848 3,334 3,751 with EBITDA Margins of 25% and be marginally EPS accretive % chg 52.9 17.7 17.1 12.5 in the first year of consolidation (FY2010). We believe this Net Profit 218 334 444 469 acquisition will help the company scale up its Inhaled Anaesthetic product portfolio and build a global presence in the % chg 80.8 53.0 33.0 5.7 Critical Care segment in the long term. We have not factored in Adj EPS (Rs) 10.4 15.9 21.2 22.4 any upsides from the acquisition on the Net Profit front. EBITDA Margin (%) 13.7 18.9 19.3 20.2 About Minrad P/E (x) 21.9 14.3 10.7 10.2 Minrad, founded in 1996, has presence across three segments, RoE (%) 21.1 33.7 37.0 32.3 viz. Inhalation Anaesthetic gases, Conscious Sedation systems, RoCE (%) 21.2 27.9 30.5 28.1 Image Guidance systems. Minrad has transformed itself into a generic provider of Inhalation Anaesthetic products, which P/BV (x) 3.9 3.9 3.3 2.7 contributed 98% of Total Revenues in the first nine months of EV/Sales (x) 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.5 CY2008, with all four key products (Desflurane-ANDA filed, EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 9.3 7.8 7.1 Sevoflurane, Enflurane and Isoflurane) under its portfolio. Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on Dec.24,2008 Research Analyst - Sarabjit Kour Nangra / Sushant Dalmia For Private Circulation Only 3 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 5. Angel Broking TM Technical Picks Service Truly Personalized Bulls losing momentum Sensex (9329) / Nifty (2857) In our previous weekly report we had mentioned that initial part of the week could see a minor correction to 9990 - 9820 / 3015 - 2975 levels, where one can initiate long positions with a stop loss of 9633 / 2900 level for a target of 11400 -11650 / 3400 - 3450 levels. However, magnitude of the correction has clearly taken us by surprise and has broken our short-term swing low, which was at around 9600 / 2900 level thereby negating our previous weekly view and has lost momentum on the upside, which was seen in earlier week. Source: Advanced Get Pattern Formation: The short-term swing low on the daily charts (9633 /2923 level) dated 18/12/08 has been broken, which suggests loss of momentum in the short term. The next support is at 9200 - 9050 / 2800 - 2770 levels. The RSI (smoothened), which is a momentum indicator is giving a negative crossover in the daily charts, which suggests some further downside. However, same RSI (smoothened) in the weekly charts is still positive, which suggests buying may emerge at lower levels. For Private Circulation Only 4 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798
  • 6. Angel Broking TM Technical Picks Service Truly Personalized Future Outlook: Summarizing from the above, the coming weeks are likely to witness a move in the range of 9200 -10188 / 2800 - 3100 levels, with 10188 / 3100 level clearly acting as a strong resistance. Very clearly the upside target of 11400 / 3400 level is now in doubt, and may be achieved only if the indices close and trade above the strong resistance of 10188 / 3100 level. On the flip side, if 9200 - 9050 / 2800 - 2770 level is broken then markets can even test 8460 - 8370 / 2530 - 2500 levels. The short-term momentum indicators are suggesting a downside drift in the prices but not a one way crackdown. Also, the fall in the last four trading sessions has been on low volumes, which suggests that some buying may come at lower levels. Though we hold a bearish view in the long term (three to six months), we feel that the short term may witness some buying before the fall happens. Negative crossover RSI (smoothened) Source: Advanced Get Technical Research Team For Private Circulation Only 5 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 7. Angel Broking TM Mutual Fund Focus Service Truly Personalized ELSS - Equity linked Savings Scheme ELSS is a mutual fund scheme that invests in equity & equity-related securities. ELSS are also eligible investments under section 80C of Income Tax Act 1961, where the investments up to Rs.1 Lac is eligible for deduction from your total income. There are many tax-saving instruments, like NSC, PPF, Bank FD that has a fixed Long Term maturity period and gives fixed returns on the amount invested. Features of ELSS Schemes ELSS v/s Other Investment Avenues Objective Long-term Capital Appreciation & Tax Planning Particulars PPF NSC ELSS (Mutual Bank FD Risk Average Fund) Duration (years)-Lock in Investment Portfolio Stocks-Large & Mid Cap Period 15 6 3 5 Who should invest Investors -Tax Planning & Capital appreciation Minimum Investment(Rs.) 500 100 500 5000 Investment horizon 3 years Lock in Period Maximum Investment Tax Deduction-Sec 80 C (Rs.)- For Tax Advantage 70000 100000 100000 100000 (With Effect from 01/4/2008) Investment up to Rs.1 Lac Exempt from Tax Safety/Ratings No Risk No risk Average Risk No Risk Tax Implications Dividend-Tax Free Returns % (CAGR) 8.50 7.50 22.50 10.50 Long Term Capital Gain(LTGC) -NIL Interest Income/ Benchmark S&P CNX Nifty Index Dividend Tax Free Taxable Dividends& Taxable LTCG tax are free Tax Saving (Tax Rate-33.33 %*) Rs 23331 33330 33330 33330 *Note: Investors Falling in Highest Tax Bracket SIP Analysis in ELSS Schemes An Efficient Tax-Saving Tool The Graph shows that SIP started in a Bear phase & held for a long period has created wealth for the investor. SIP period considered: January 2002 to December 2006 ELSS has Triple Advantage Compared to other tax Savings Option Shortest lock-in period of three years Highest Returns Potential Dividend & Long term Capital Gain are Tax Free Disclaimer: - Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Please go through offer document before investing. For Private Circulation Only 6 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798
  • 8. Angel Broking TM Mutual Fund Focus Service Truly Personalized Bharti AXA Tax Advantage-NFO Fund features: NFO Period: - 12thDecember, 2008 to 12th February, 2009 Scheme Objective The Scheme seeks to generate long-term capital growth from a diversified portfolio of Predominantly equity and equity-related securities across all market capitalizations. The Scheme is in the nature of diversified multi-cap fund. The Scheme is not providing any Assured or guaranteed returns. There can be no assurance that the investment objectives of the Scheme will be realized. Type of Scheme An Open - Ended Equity Linked Savings Scheme offering Tax benefits to eligible assesses under Section 80 C of the Income Tax Act, 1961 Bench Mark Index S&P CNX Nifty Index NFO Price Rs 10 per unit in cash plus applicable Entry Load. Plans Eco and Regular Investment Option(s) Growth Option Dividend Option offering Dividend Re-investment and Dividend Pay-out facilities Minimum Application Rs.500/- and in multiples of Rs.500/- Amount Entry load Regular Plan - Where the purchase amount is less than Rs. 2 crores - 2.25% of the Applicable NAV; Where the purchase amount is Rs. 2 crores and above - Nil Eco Plan - 2.25% of the Applicable NAV Investments through SIP/ STP - 2.25% of the Applicable NAV Exit Load NIL Asset Allocation Instrument Risk Profile Range Pattern Equity & Equity related instruments * High 80%- 100% Debt & Money Market Instruments** Low to Medium 0% - 20% Fund Manager Mr. Prateek Agrawal *Investment in derivatives instruments may be made only if permitted under Equity Linked Savings Scheme, 2005 and SEBI Regulations. In such event, the investments in derivatives shall be up to 50% of the net assets of the Scheme. **The Scheme will not make investments in securitized debt Outlook on Equity Market by Bharti AXA AMC Central bankers Commodity turn from fighting Financial Equity Markets Prices Flow of Equity inflation to Conditions start to decline/Inflation Resume Supporting Ease Outperform Peaks Out growth Performance of Bharti AXA Equity Fund Bharti AXA Tax Advantage Fund Suitable for Investors Period 1 Week 2 Weeks 1 Month Since Medium to long term Investment horizon. Inception Attractive investment opportunity for claiming tax Benefits. Fund 2.50 9.10 11.30 7.13 Long Term Wealth Creation Benchmark- S&P CNX Nifty 5.34 13.37 15.27 13.87 *Absolute Return % as on 21 Dec 2008 Disclaimer: - Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Please go through offer document before investing. For Private Circulation Only 7 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 9. Angel Broking TM Derivatives Review Service Truly Personalized Last week correction due to profit booking Trade with positive bias using Nifty call options Nifty spot has closed at 2857 this week against a close of 3078 last week. The Put-Call Ratio is at 1.12 levels against the 1.48 levels last week and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 3.99%. The Open Interest in Nifty Futures has decreased by 29.35% due to expiry. Put Call Ratio Analysis Futures Annual Volatility Analysis PCR-OI has declined from 1.48 levels to 1.12 levels in beginning Nifty futures annual volatility has decreased week-over-week of January series. We have less strike prices to deal with in this from 66.74% to 61.21%. Implied volatility has increased from series. Both 3000 call and put have shown significant activity 42.50% to 43.25%. Call option IV's are trading at 40.54% and initially. This level would be pivotal for the series. 2800 put has put option IV's are trading at 45.96%. Interestingly even after maximum open interest and taking into consideration relatively significant fall of more than 7% IV's have not shot up, indicating low IV's this appears to be blend of both buying and selling. this is just profit booking. Counters where HV's have increased FII's interestingly have shown interest in stock options too. are CMC, TVSMOTOR, PETRONET, KSK and GSPL. Stocks where HV's have decreased are ULTRACEMCO, SYNDIBANK, UTVSOF, CHENNPETRO and STERLINBIO. Open Interest Analysis Cost of Carry Analysis Total open interest of market week-over-week has decreased January series was trading at premium of 28-30 points before from Rs. 65,720 crores to Rs. 36,550 crores and that of stock expiry. However on Friday the premium has shrunk to 10.30 futures has decreased from Rs. 16,971 crores to Rs. 12,512 points. This was mainly due to long unwinding. We don't expect crores due to expiry. Liquid counters like SATYAMCOMP, nifty to go into significant premium or discount as both long and IBREALEST, IDFC, and BAJAJHIND have managed to add open short standing in market at this point in time. Stocks with positive interest despite expiry. Most of these positions are on the short cost of carry are WWIL, TV-18, HOTELEELA, CIPLA and side. Counters where significant reduction was witnessed were BRIGADE. Counters with significant negative CoC are PFC, INDIAINFO, DRREDDY, AXISBANK and HDFCBANK. GMRINFRA, UNITECH, AMTEKAUTO, IBREALEST and EDELWEISS. Derivative Strategy Scrip : RPL CMP : Rs. 84.75/- Lot Size : 1675 Exercise Day (F&O) : 29th January 2009 View: Mildly Bullish Strategy: Bull Call Spread Expected Payoff Buy/Sell Qty Scrip Strike Series Option Market Closing Price Expected Price Type Price(Rs.) Profit/Loss BUY 1675 RPL 90 January CALL 5.00 Rs. 80.00 (Rs. 2.50) Sell 1675 RPL 100 January CALL 2.50 Rs. 85.00 (Rs. 2.50) BEP: Rs. 92.50/- Rs. 92.50 Rs. 0.00 Max. Risk: Rs. 4,187.50/- Max. Profit: Rs.12,562.50/- Rs. 95.00 Rs. 2.50 If RPL closes on or below Rs. 90/- If RPL closes on or above Rs. 100/-. NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry if RPL moves in favourable direction. Rs. 100.00 Rs. 7.50 For Private Circulation Only 8 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798
  • 10. Angel Broking TM Commodities Center Service Truly Personalized Spices Outlook India's total spices exports from April to October 2008/09 rose by 7 per cent in volume terms due to strong demand for jeera, turmeric and coriander according to the Spices Board. Spice exports during April-October stood at 284,560 tonnes as compared to 266,325 tonnes a year ago. Jeera exports surged by 74 per cent to 26,000 tonnes during Apr-Oct due to lower output in major producing nations like Syria and Turkey ,Coriander exports rose by 13 per cent to 17,100 tonnes and turmeric rose by 6 per cent to 32,250 tonnes whereas Pepper exports declined by 35 per cent to 14,750 tonnes. Global financial turmoil has adversely affected export of spices from India in the third quarter of 2008-09. Demand for the Indian Pepper from the US and European buyers has slowed down on account of the economic meltdown. Outlook for some of the spices is as under: Turmeric: Turmeric prices witnessed a downward trend in the past few weeks on expectation of better Turmeric production for the year 2009. Production estimates for 2009 are around 48 lakh bags compared to 42 lakh bags in 2008. Beginning stocks of Turmeric is estimated to decline and stand lower at 6-7 lakh bags. Fresh arrivals of Turmeric would be available only by mid of January 2009. Spot prices of Turmeric at major mandis traded in the range of Rs.5,000-3,800/qtl in the previous year. Turmeric Futures April contract after making a high of Rs.4,210/qtl in August 2008, dipped to a low of Rs.3,050qtl in October. Currently, prices are trading around Rs.3,350 levels. We expect prices to fall further towards Rs.3,050 levels in the coming weeks. Pepper: Decline in the export of Black Pepper from the nation is pressurising prices at the domestic market. Demand from the US and Europe have declined due to economic slowdown. Other reasons attributed to reduction in exports is sufficient stocks of Pepper with these nations. Indian international parity of Pepper though being competitive in the overseas market is not providing support to the prices. Pepper Production in India is expected to be 45-50 thousand tonnes for 2009. If demand from overseas continues to be grim, prices may dip further. Jeera: Export of Jeera soared to 74% in the first seven months of the current fiscal 2008-09 to around 26,000 tonnes due to lower availability of Jeera in other major growing countries such as Turkey, Syria. This encouraged the farmers of Gujarat and Rajasthan to go for better sowing of Jeera. Jeera production is affected by the vagaries of weather. Thus, the period from December end to February of the next year is crucial for the growth of Jeera. If there are any disturbances in weather, that may support the prices to strengthen. Overall trend remains sideways to down. Turmeric: Jeera: Particulars April Contract (per 100 Kg) Particulars February Contract (per 100 Kg) Resistance-2 3680 Resistance-2 10750 Resistance-1 3525 Resistance-1 10525 Close 3385 Close 10350 Support-1 3250 Support-1 9980 Support-2 3055 Support-2 9710 Pepper: Particulars February Contract (per 100 Kg) Particulars Spot prices Resistance-2 10730 Black Pepper 10300 Resistance-1 10410 Close 9900 Jeera 10800 Support-1 9720 Support-2 9475 Turmeric 3950-3800 Research Analyst (Commodities) - Nalini Rao For Private Circulation Only 9 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 11. Angel Broking TM Commodities Center Service Truly Personalized BULLION MCX FEBRUARY GOLD MCX MARCH SILVER Last week, Gold prices opened the week at 12760 but found Last week, Silver prices opened the week at 17633 initially moved very good support at 12760 levels. Later prices recover sharply higher and found good resistance at 17883 levels. Later prices breaking all the resistance and made a high of 13466 and fell sharply lower breaking all the supports, and made a low finally ended the week with a huge profit of Rs.620 to close at 16935 and finally ended the week with a loss of Rs.238 to close 13380. at 17395. TREND : SIDEWAYS UP TREND : SIDEWAYS TRADING LEVELS: TRADING LEVELS: This week market is expected to find very good support at This week market is expected to find good support at 13240-13250 levels. Strong support is seen at 13080-13090 17100-17120 levels. Strong support is seen at 16950-16980 levels. levels. Trading below 13080 would lead to lower prices initially Trading below 16950 would lead to lower prices initially towards 12880 and then finally towards the major support at towards 16820 then 16630 and then finally towards 16500 12665. levels. Resistance is observed in the range of 13640-13660. Strong Resistance is observed in the range of 17650-17680. Strong resistance is seen at 13770. resistance is seen at 17890-18000 levels. Trading above 13770 would lead to higher prices initially towards 13910 and then finally towards 14000. Trading above 18000 would lead to higher prices initially towards 18260 and then finally towards 18600. Recommendation: Buy in the range of 13090-13120 with a strict stop-loss below 12850 for a target of 13480 and 13550. Recommendation: Neutral MCX FEBRUARY COPPER MCX JANUARY CRUDE Last week, Copper prices opened at 144.70. Initially it moved Last week, Crude opened at 2060 levels initially and moved higher but found strong resistance at 149.50 levels. Later, prices higher but found strong resistance at 2108 levels. Later, prices fell sharply breaking all supports and made a low 138.55 levels fell sharply breaking all supports through the week and made a and finally ended the week with a loss Rs.0.70 to close at 144. low of 1751 and finally ended the week with a huge loss of Rs.216 to close at 1844. TREND: SIDEWAYS DOWN TREND : SIDEWAYS DOWN TRADING LEVELS: TRADING LEVELS: This week market is expected to find good support in the This week market is expected to find good support in the range of 138-135 levels. Strong support is seen at 133-130 range of 1695 levels. Strong support is seen at 1545-1550 levels. levels. Trading below 130 would lead to lower prices initially towards Trading below 1545 would lead to lower prices finally towards 125 and then finally towards 120 levels. 1500. Resistance is observed in the range of 148-150 levels and Resistance is observed in the range of 1930-1950 levels and strong resistance is seen at 156. strong resistance is seen at 2060-2070 Trading above 156 would lead to higher prices initially towards Trading above 2070 would lead to higher prices initially 161.80 and then finally towards 171 levels. towards 2175 and then finally towards 2310. Recommendation: Neutral Recommendation: Neutral Technical Analyst (Commodities) - Abhishek Chauhan For Private Circulation Only 10 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798
  • 12. Angel Broking TM Service Truly Personalized Fund Management & Investment Advisory ( 022 - 4040 3800 / 2835 9600) P. Phani Sekhar Fund Manager - (PMS) phani.sekhar@angeltrade.com Siddharth Bhamre Head - Investment Advisory siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Devang Mehta AVP - Investment Advisory devang.mehta@angeltrade.com Research Team ( 022 - 4040 3800 / 2835 9600) Hitesh Agrawal Head - Research hitesh.agrawal@angeltrade.com Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Harit Shah IT, Telecom harit.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Pawan Burde Metals & Mining, Cement pawan.burde@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Girish Solanki Power, Mid-cap girish.solanki@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Raghav Sehgal Retail raghav.sehgal@angeltrade.com Jaydeep Mavani Research Associate (Automobile) jaydeep.mavani@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com Richa Chandak Research Associate (Banking) richa.chandak@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Shweta Boob Research Associate (FMCG , Media) shweta.boob@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Power, Mid-cap) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Amit Bagaria PMS amit.bagaria@angeltrade.com Neha Idnany Research Associate - (PMS) neha.idnany@angeltrade.com Sandeep Wagle Chief Technical Analyst sandeep@angeltrade.com Ajit Joshi AVP Technical Advisory Services ajit.joshi@angeltrade.com Brijesh Ail Manager - Technical Advisory Services brijesh@angeltrade.com Prasad Kushe Sr.Technical Analyst prasad.kushe@angeltrade.com Vaishnavi Jagtap Sr. Technical Analyst vaishnavi.jagtap@angeltrade.com Milan Sanghvi Sr. Technical Analyst milan.sanghvi@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Advisor (TAS) vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Krunal Dayma Derivative Analyst krunal.dayma@angeltrade.com Commodities Research Team Amar Singh Research Head (Commodities) amar.singh@angeltrade.com Samson P Sr. Technical Analyst samsonp@angeltrade.com Anuj Gupta Sr. Technical Analyst anuj.gupta@angeltrade.com Girish Patki Sr. Technical Analyst girish.patki@angeltrade.com Commodities Research Team (Fundamentals) Badruddin Sr. Research Analyst (Agri) badruddin@angeltrade.com Mandar Pote Research Analyst (Energy) mandar.pote@angeltrade.com Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Research & Investment Advisory: Acme Plaza, 3rd Floor ‘A’ wing, M.V. 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Ratings (Returns) : Buy (Upside > 15%) Accumulate (Upside upto 15%) Neutral (5 to -5%) Reduce (Downside upto 15%) Sell (Downside > 15%) For Private Circulation Only 11 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302
  • 13. Corporate & Marketing Office : 612, Acme Plaza, M.V. Road, Opp Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059 Tel : (022) 4000 3600 / 3941 3940 NRI Helpdesk : e-mail : nri@angeltrade.com Tel : (022) 4000 3622 / 4026 2700 Investment Advisory Helpdesk : e-mail : advisory@angeltrade.com Tel : (022) 3952 4568 Commodities : e-mail : commodities@angeltrade.com Tel : (022) 3952 9200 PMS : e-mail : pmshelpdesk@angeltrade.com Tel: (022) 3953 2800 Feedback : e-mail : feedback@angeltrade.com Tel : (022) 2835 5000 Regional Offices: Ahmedabad - Manoj Johnson Tel: (079) 3982 2300 / 3982 5200 Jaipur - Sumit Trivedi Tel: (0141) 3941 3940 Mumbai (Powai) - Vishal Mishra Tel: (022)3952 6500. 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(Ramdevnagar) - Tel : (079) 4024 3842 / 43 Jalgaon - Tel: (0257) 2234 832 Rajkot (University Rd.) - Tel: (0281) 2331 418 Central Support & Registered Office:G-1, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No. 7, MIDC Marol, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093 Tel : 2835 8800 / 3083 7700 Angel Broking Ltd : BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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