Economic Uncertainty. One of the main factors indicating that the U.S. may not experience strong economic growth in 2014 is its weak GDP growth.
According to Federal Reserve research, since 1947, when real GDP grows at a rate of less than two percent year-over-year, recession has occurred in the following year about 70 percent of the time.
In the first and second quarters of 2013, GDP in the U.S. grew by 1.1 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. Barclays forecasted that third-quarter GDP growth will be 1.5 percent, but it can be significantly lower because of the government shutdown.
The government shutdown can have a very real impact on the economy, putting its recovery in jeopardy.
Businesses are facing more policy uncertainty now than any other time since the debt-ceiling fiasco in 2011. The current monetary and fiscal uncertainty can result in a significant decline in investment and employment, and potentially lower economic growth rate by as much as one percent this year.
If that happens, the economy may be at stall speed by the beginning of 2014. According to some experts, there is a possibility that the U.S. will experience a recession next year.