Right Management Solar Presentation

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Presentation to the clean tech forum by the solar focused subgroup (6/9/09)

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  • Look at the agenda slide and make edits for the current contents
  • Include team member intro slide and an outline Where does solar fit in with other “clean” technologies? Have circle around PV, and solar is 1% of overall power generation clean up the oval
  • What are the physics behind the different solar technologies?
  • What types of technologies exist within the solar industry? (include periodic table in appendix)
  • How well do each of the technologies work? Include efficiency on y-axis
  • Why should you use one technology over another?
  • Look at the agenda slide and make edits for the current contents
  • How is a silicon solar cell manufactured?
  • Insert slides that include metrics that detail how you know if you have a viable product (see if Sudarshan has ideas for this slide)
  • Key message on slide is job distribution
  • Look at the agenda slide and make edits for the current contents
  • Stacy will clean up this slide
  • Put this in backup and have a simpler chart wit key details in presentation
  • Change slide to include LEED certified etc…
  • Look at the agenda slide and make edits for the current contents
  • Include information about rebate
  • Include types of companies
  • Look at the agenda slide and make edits for the current contents
  • Take out installer stuff, include sw mechanical, (detailed skills for a few jobs then a list of others list location of other information)
  • Move to appendix
  • Sort out by state/region
  • Put this in backup and have a simpler chart wit key details in presentation
  • Right Management Solar Presentation

    1. 1. The Business and Technology of the Solar Industry Solar Subgroup of the Clean Tech Forum June 9, 2009
    2. 2. Solar <ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major technologies - Ari </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Value Chain John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installations – residential Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future System building and building integration Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and VC funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential example </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Careers Ari </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Career paths (sample job description) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you might need </li></ul></ul>
    3. 3. Alternative Energy Industry Overview
    4. 5. Solar PV Technologies
    5. 6. Solar Efficiency Efficiency
    6. 7. Technological Comparison Technology Advantage Disadvantage c-Si High efficiency Abundance of material High cost to manufacture High cost of materials a-Si Low cost Abundant and safe material Low efficiency Degrades with temperature increase CIGS High efficiency Low cost Bandgap tunability Scarcity of Indium Cd is toxic Reliability has not been tested CdTe Low cost Te is scarce Cd is toxic Concentrating solar High efficiency Low cost Takes up a lot of room Transmission of energy over long distances
    7. 8. Solar <ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major technologies - Ari </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Value Chain John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installations – residential Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future System building and building integration Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and VC funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential example </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Careers Ari </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Career paths (sample job description) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you might need </li></ul></ul>
    8. 9. Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing Flow Monocrystalline Si Cell Amorphous Si Cell Amorphous Si & Microcrystalline Cell
    9. 10. Thin Film Cell Construct <ul><li>Cadmium Telluride/Cadmium Sulfide Cell </li></ul><ul><li>Copper Indium Selenide </li></ul><ul><li>Copper Indium Gallium Selenide </li></ul>
    10. 11. Thin Film Solar Cell Manufacturing Process Resulting Structure TCO contact Process Step Technology Used TCO Deposition, Front and Scribing Active Layer Deposition Activation Scribing and TCO Deposition, Back Interconnect and Encapsulation Sputtering and Laser Co-evaporation or Sputtering or Ink Jet Printing or Electro deposition Chemical Bath or PVD (Phys Vapor Dep) Mechanical and Sputtering Lamination Annealing & Sulfurization or RTA CdS Deposition Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Substrate Active layer Sulfurization CdS layer Interconnect
    11. 12. Examples of Final Products Single Crystal Solar Cell-i.e. Sunpower Polycrystalline Solar Cell-i.e. Q-Cell Flexible thin film cell Thin film cell Solar cell lamp picture Solar Cell Application
    12. 13. Product Evaluation Solar Simulator Radiation of 5 – 10 suns Solar Cell is exposed Its Current/Voltage is measured Cells classified according to output efficiency Cells then matched together to form module .
    13. 14. <ul><li>Poly-Si Feedstock 10% </li></ul><ul><li>Ingot/Wafer Production 10% </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Production 25% </li></ul><ul><li>Module Assembly 25% </li></ul><ul><li>System Integration, Distribution and Installation 30% </li></ul>Wafer Based PV Value Chain <ul><li>Glass Production 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Production (CdTe, CIS) 20% </li></ul><ul><li>Module Assembly 25% </li></ul><ul><li>System Integration, Distribution and Installation 35% </li></ul>Thin Film Based PV Value Chain Job Distribution in Solar Companies
    14. 15. Solar <ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major technologies - Ari </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Value Chain John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installations – residential Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future System building and building integration Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and VC funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential example </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Careers Ari </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Career paths (sample job description) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you might need </li></ul></ul>
    15. 16. Case Study <ul><li>Residential Solar installation </li></ul><ul><li>2000 square foot house </li></ul><ul><li>3.5 KW system </li></ul>
    16. 17. Comparative Sample Calculation <ul><li>Demographics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Home with 2000 square feet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Partitioned into living quarters for one family </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>And 2 separate master bedrooms for single occupants </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No air conditioning </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Composite roof </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Facing south west, plenty of sunlight, no shading </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Plenty of roof space for solar panels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Comparing Sharp, First Solar, BP Solar and Sunpower PV panel based installations </li></ul><ul><li>Simple calc, only used the expected AC savings, expected AC cost increases (at 2% and 5% per year rate assumptions), panel degradation and net of tax rebate costs used. </li></ul><ul><li>NOTE: Assumes CLEAN dust free sap free panels </li></ul><ul><li>CAUTION: Sales person my use 9% AC cost increases per year other inflation rate items and not take into account panel output degradation to show 2 or 3X the savings. </li></ul><ul><li>GOOD NEWS: up to 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year </li></ul><ul><li>These solar systems have 7 to 8 year to reach break even point and $28K to $45K savings in 18 years (18 years is PPA life and may be the “half life” for the Silcon based panels.) </li></ul>
    17. 18. Comparative ROI Calculation Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA (leased system) Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon Area used on roof Square Feet 246 246 402 221 214 System Rating kWh 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148 Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626 Panel Degradation In years 20% in 25 yrs 20% in 25 yrs 10% at 10 years, 20% at 25 years 10% at 12 years, 20% at 25 years 20% in 25 years Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150 BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18 $13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843
    18. 19. Think SOLAR System Integration <ul><li>New Building Products </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Walls </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Roof systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lighting </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Plumbing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Heating/Cooling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flooring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wall treatments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Window – shading </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Siding </li></ul></ul><ul><li>with Installation Systems </li></ul>
    19. 20. Beyond LEED Challenge For the Solar Community <ul><li>System Analysis: </li></ul><ul><li>Think Beyond LEED Standards </li></ul><ul><li>Inside as Outside Environment </li></ul><ul><li>Explore nature’s technology </li></ul><ul><li>Dual, triple or quadruple solutions </li></ul><ul><li>Re-evaluate existing products </li></ul><ul><li>Think Beyond Building Integrated Photo Voltaics (BIPV) </li></ul><ul><li>Incorporate materials into “BEES” </li></ul><ul><li>(Building Envelope Energy Systems) for: </li></ul><ul><li>Heating + Ventilation </li></ul><ul><li>Plumbing </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity </li></ul><ul><li>Lighting </li></ul>Living Building Challenge Petals Expand on LEED* Current Standards *(Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design)
    20. 21. Manufacturing Considerations: Banned Materials Red-List <ul><li>Formaldehyde </li></ul><ul><li>Halogenated Flame Retardants: </li></ul><ul><li>PBDE,TBBPA,HBCD, TCPP, </li></ul><ul><li>Deca-BDE, TCEP and any with: </li></ul><ul><li>Dechlorane Plus, Bromine or </li></ul><ul><li>Chlorine </li></ul><ul><li>PVC </li></ul><ul><li>Mercury </li></ul><ul><li>CFC’s </li></ul><ul><li>HCFC’s </li></ul><ul><li>Neoprene (chloroprene) </li></ul><ul><li>Cadmium </li></ul><ul><li>Chlorinated Polyethylene </li></ul><ul><li>Chlorosulfonated Polyethylene </li></ul><ul><li>Polyurethane </li></ul><ul><li>Lead </li></ul><ul><li>Phthalates </li></ul><ul><li>Wood treatments containing: </li></ul><ul><li>Creosote, Arsenic or </li></ul><ul><li>Pentachlorophenol </li></ul>Several temporary exceptions for limited conditions: PVC in wiring - when code mandated Solder and off-grid solar battery Low-mercury fluorescent lighting systems only allowed
    21. 22. Solar <ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major technologies - Ari </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Value Chain John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installations – residential Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future System building and building integration Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and VC funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential example </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Careers Ari </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Career paths (sample job description) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you might need </li></ul></ul>
    22. 23. Federal Funding and Rebates <ul><li>Business: Grants for offsetting 30% of the cost of installing a solar energy system </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Instead of a tax credit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large-scale solar plants, often developed to sell power to utilities, also are eligible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Applies only to systems installed in 2009 and 2010 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solyndra received $535M loan guarantee from DOE </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Residential: 30% tax credit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Policy Act of 2005 </li></ul></ul>
    23. 24. California Solar Initiative (CSI) <ul><li>Part of “Go Solar California” campaign </li></ul><ul><ul><li>$2.2B program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rebates offered thru utilities (e.g. PG&E) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Aug. 2004: Million Solar Roofs program </li></ul><ul><ul><li>3,000 MW goal </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jan. 2006: CPUC collaborated with Energy Commission </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developed framework for CSI thru 2016 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jan. 2007: New Solar Homes Partnership </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Financial incentives & other support </li></ul></ul>
    24. 25. VC Funding (Bay Area companies) <ul><li>$M Company </li></ul><ul><li>300 Nanosolar </li></ul><ul><li>225 Solyndra </li></ul><ul><li>132 OptiSolar </li></ul><ul><li>115 BrightSource Energy </li></ul><ul><li>75 Recurrent Energy </li></ul><ul><li>61 Ausra </li></ul><ul><li>52 Calisolar </li></ul><ul><li>48 SoloPower </li></ul><ul><li>47 Solar Power Partners </li></ul><ul><li>30 GreenVolts </li></ul><ul><li>$M Company </li></ul><ul><li>29 Solar City </li></ul><ul><li>22 MiaSole </li></ul><ul><li>21 Cool Earth Solar </li></ul><ul><li>18 Solexant Corp. </li></ul><ul><li>18 Solar Junction </li></ul><ul><li>13 Twin Creek Tech </li></ul><ul><li>12 Sun Run </li></ul><ul><li>9 Stion Corp. </li></ul><ul><li>6 Tigo </li></ul><ul><li>3 Senergen </li></ul><ul><li>1236 Total </li></ul>Source: Thomson Financial, based on 2008 financing VC
    25. 26. Solar System Benefits Example <ul><li>If annual electric usage = 10,000 kWh ($2,430/yr.) </li></ul><ul><li>4,000 W system would lower cost to $464/yr. </li></ul>Electric bill savings Electric bill with solar system Source: Sunwize Technologies, Inc.
    26. 27. Benefits of Solar System <ul><li>Cost $32,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Federal/State Tax Credit 1 $7,926 </li></ul><ul><li>State/Utility Rebate $5,580 </li></ul><ul><li>Net Cost $18,494 (42% savings) </li></ul><ul><li>Cumulative Lifetime Savings 2 $93,813 over 25 years </li></ul><ul><li>1: Assumes uncapped residential tax credit which goes into effect January 1, 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>2: CLS based on 5% annual electric bill escalation (~$49,000 if 0% escalation; 14.4% return) </li></ul><ul><li>Berkeley allows homeowners to borrow the cost of installation & pay annually </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Sunwize Technologies, Inc. </li></ul>
    27. 28. Solar <ul><li>Industry Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major technologies - Ari </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Value Chain John </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Installations – residential Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future System building and building integration Stacy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Industry Funding -- follow the money! Keith </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government and VC funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Residential example </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Careers Ari </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Career paths (sample job description) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What you might need </li></ul></ul>
    28. 29. Career Options <ul><li>Process Engineer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Educational requirement: Typically advanced degree in Chemical Engineering, Materials Science, or other related engineering disciplines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Experience with deposition techniques like CVD, and PVD </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Systems Engineer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Educational requirement: BS/MS in Electrical Engineering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of control theory and power systems </li></ul></ul>
    29. 30. Career Options <ul><li>Many other jobs inlcluding SW engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Project Managers, etc… </li></ul><ul><li>More detailed description of many jobs may be found at http://www.greenforall.org/resources/green-jobs-guidebook </li></ul>
    30. 31. Summary <ul><li>Different technologies used for a variety of applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Large surface area may want lower cost/lower efficiency, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jobs will be found in variety of different segments of the solar industry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>R&D, manufacturing, business operations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Subsidies provide access to technology and incentive to buy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Success in Germany and Spain example of solar technology flourishing </li></ul></ul>
    31. 33. Examples of Thin Film Cells Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell Q-Cell
    32. 34. Thin Film PV Companies in US a-Si/Thin-Si CdTe CIGS Applied Materials –CA First Solar –OH Global Solar –AZ XsunX –CA Solar Fields –OH Miasole –CA OptiSolar –CA Xunlight 26 Solar –OH ISET –CA Signet Solar –CA Primestar Solar –CO Nanosolar –CA Innovalight –CA AVA Solar –CO Solo Power –CA Nanogram –CA Nuvo Solar Energy –CO Solyndra –CA Soltaix –CA Canrom –NY Stion –CA Sierra Solar Power –CA Ascentool –CA Energy PV –NJ Uni-Solar –MI Solexant –CA RESI –NJ Power Films –IA Bloom Solar –CA Ascent Solar –CO Energy PV –NJ Zia Watt Solar –TX ITN/ES –CO Nano PV –NJ Sunovia –FL Daystar –NY MV Systems –CO NewCve –GA Heliovolt –TX Proto Flex –CO Ampulse –TN
    33. 35. Comparative ROI Calculation Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower Model No. ND-198U1F ND-198U1F FS-276 BP175 SP2-210 Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon Area used on roof Square Feet 246 246 402 221 214 System Rating CEC A C KWh 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148 Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626 Panel Degradation In years 80% in 25 yrs 80% in 25 yrs 90% at 10 years, 80% at 25 years 90% at 12 years, 80% at 25 years 80% in 25 years Degradation used in calculation 0.005 per year 0.005 per year 0.008 per year 0.005 per year 0.005 per year OTHER MONITORING, Buy out $13,195 at 5 years, $3,564 at 18 years/end MONITORING PREPAID RECYCLING, MONITORING NONE, monitoring system not included NONE, monitoring system not included Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150 BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18 $13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843 If 2% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18 $10,863 $36,692 $24,140 $28,767 $36,089

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