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  • TIME FRAME: 30 minutes.
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie docthfst 5
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie presentatie Durban update
  • Zie iamemelbourne sheet
  • Cash problems among many companies.Fear for structural overcapacity in the market: Underutilization of terminals: on average only 60% utilization by 2013 based on the March 2009 forecasts, while the September 2008 still predicted 90%.Cancellation of or the delay in a number of capacity expansions plans.Overcapacity is expected to force down tariffs and undermine the ROI:Terminal business less interesting to financial firms.Potential difficulties for financing of large terminal projects.Renegotiation of existing concession agreements inevitable?
  • While the current context is prone to uncertainties, it can be anticipated that once the mal-investments caused by the housing bubble and its contamination of the global economy have been cleared by a deep recession, a new period of growth will result. The storm will abate, leading to a calmer period where future trends are easier to assess. The following interrelated points can provide a guideline:1) The global economy will be rebalanced under different fundamentals that are likely to be linked with lower growth rates.2) The emphasis appears to be shifting towards of a rationalization of supply chains. Growth prospects are being questioned, at least on the medium run, so supply chains will be modified to cope with these conditions.3) Globalization is likely to be more regional in character. Energy prices, in spite of the recent sharp correction, are much higher than they were a few years ago. Coupled with supply chain rationalization production and distribution may tend to stick more to regional trade agreements.4) In light of the above points, the setting of gateways / inland ports coupled with freight clusters will continue. The most successful clusters are likely to be the ones able to provide balanced cargo flows (imports and exports) and if cargo is very imbalanced, very productive added value activities.

The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ... The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ... Presentation Transcript

  • The Ramifications of the Crisis:Revising Future ExpectationsTheo NotteboomITMMA - University of Antwerp and Antwerp Maritime AcademyJean-Paul RodrigueDepartment of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra UniversityTerminal Operators Conference - EuropeValencia (Spain), June 8-10 2010
  • Outline
    Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
    Towards a paradigm shift?
  • 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    World trade and manufacturing output
    Source: EU
  • GDP growth (q-o-q) in EU
    GDP growth (index) in EU
    Source: EU
    1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
  • Industrial production - EU
    Industrial production - world
    Source: EU
    1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
  • Private consumption in EU
    Investments in capital goods in EU
    Source: EU
    1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
  • 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    Increased need for factoring in
    uncertainty/risk in business strategies
  • Outline
    Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
    Towards a paradigm shift?
  • How serious is the throughput issue?The European case
    The bubble effect?
  • Container throughput development and various forecasts, Antwerp
    Source: Notteboom
  • Top 15 European container ports
    = port gained places in ranking (2008-2009)
    = port lost places in ranking (2008-2009)
  • Taking a medium-term view on traffic development: Winners and losers during the period 2006-2009
    THE MAIN WINNERS
    THE MAIN LOSERS
    Source: ITMMA – own compilation
  • Med and UK succeeded in reversing recent decline in market share
  • Changes in Container Traffic at Some Major European Ports, 2008-2009-Q1 2010
    Growth differences mainly explained by:
    • Consolidation of volumes on trunk lines
    • End of capacity constraints in some ports
    • Major inter-port shifts in transhipment business
    • Russia effect
    Source: statistics individual port authorities
  • Trade volumes per route to/from Europe: Mixed results
    Inventory replenishment or an
    underlying recovery in demand ?
    Source: based on data EELA
  • Revisiting transshipment in Europe
    Hamburg
    Rotterdam
    Bremerhaven
    Antwerp
    Le Havre
    Zeebrugge
    Taranto
    Barcelona
    Cagliari
    Valencia
    Sines
    Piraeus
    Algeciras
    Gioia Tauro
    Malta
    Tanger Med
  • Market shares of ports in the West-Med according to diversion distance from the main route
  • The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes
    Containers: challenge of co-modality and cargo bundling on short distances
    Containerized
    cargo by road,
    rail and barge
  • The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes
    Harlingen
    Groningen
    Leeuwarden
    Veendam
    Drachten
    Seaport in Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta
    Alkmaar
    Meppel
    Inland Container Terminal (barge or multimodal)
    Zaandam
    Beverwijk
    Kampen
    Almelo
    Amsterdam
    Hengelo
    Growth region European
    Distribution (outside seaport system)
    Netherlands
    Hillegom
    Utrecht
    Ede
    Zutphen
    ROTTERDAM
    A. a/d Rijn
    Logistics corridors
    Valburg
    Nijmegem
    Gorinchem
    Oss
    Germany
    Oosterhout
    Emmerich
    Den Bosch
    Duisburg
    Tilburg
    Gennep
    Zeeland Seaports
    Moerdijk
    Dortmund
    Krefeld
    Zeebrugge
    ANTWERP
    Helmond
    Venlo
    Duesseldorf
    Deurne
    Ostend
    Neuss
    Meerhout
    Dunkirk
    Dormagen
    Born
    Genk
    Willebroek
    Cologne
    Ghent
    Wielsbeke
    Stein
    Grimbergen
    Bonn
    Belgium
    Brussels
    Avelgem
    Liège
    Lille
    Andernach
    Valenciennes
    Koblenz
    France
    Mertert
    Lux
    Competition but also synergy between regional ports
    Increasing role of inland/dry ports
  • Gateway port
    Multi-port gateway regions
    1. Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta
    2. Helgoland Bay
    3. UK SE Coast
    4. Spanish Med
    5. Ligurian Range
    6. Seine Estuary
    7. Black Sea West
    8. South Finland
    9. Portugese Range
    10. North Adriatic
    11. Gdansk Bay
    12. Kattegat/The Sound
    Transhipment/interlining port
    (transhipment incidence >75%)
    Gateway port also handling
    substantial transhipment flows
    Multi-port gateway region
    8
    Main shipping route
    12
    11
    2
    1
    3
    Americas
    West
    Germany
    South Poland/
    Czech Republic/
    Slovakia/Hungary
    6
    Bavaria
    Alpine region
    Americas
    Northern
    Italy
    7
    South
    France
    10
    5
    9
    Madrid and
    surroundings
    4
    Main shipping route
    Middle East – Far East
    Ports increasingly compete for more distant hinterlands
  • Keeping Track of the Big Picture: Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System
  • Outline
    Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
    Towards a paradigm shift?
  • The Double Squeeze on Ports and Maritime Shipping
    Maritime Shipping
    Overcapacity
    New terminals coming online
    New ships coming online (+ cancellations)
    Contestability for gateways
    Contestability for hubs
    Rebalancing
    Supply
    Demand
    Port Operations
    Lower profitability
    Less pressures on terminal resources
    Less financial appeal
  • M&A activity in terminal operating industry
    Expected net returns on investment grossly overrated on assumptions that:
    container throughput figures would go through the ceiling
    container handling facilities would be in short supply
    prices would rise steeply.
    Since 2008: no major terminal transactions
    Max 8 to 10 times EBITBA
    Shipping lines’ divestment in terminals?
  • A more prudent approach to plot sizes of capacity extensions?
    Deurganckdock
    5.3 km quay wall,
    326 ha, 44 GC
    8m TEU
    • Rotterdam: Euromax
    • 5.5m TEU, 2.3m TEU in 1st phase
    • Rotterdam: Maasvlakte I & II
    • Le Havre: Port 2000
  • Rebalancing risk
    Globalization and the growth of the shipping industry appear to have skewed the perception of risk downward.
    Source: Rodrigue, Notteboom and Pallis (2009)
  • The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports
  • The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports
  • Will we get back to a ‘business as usual’ scenario?
    No: the ‘business as usual’ practices between 2002 and 2008 were highly ‘unusual’.
    Medium-term perspective (3-5 years):
    Sustained pressure on terminal rates due to restructuring/consolidation of shipping services and memory effects in terminal overcapacity situation.
    Actors will continue to show cautious in competitive bidding processes.
    Long-term perspective (>5 years):
    Strategic port sites remain scarce goods.
    Terminals will regain status as interesting investment objects, but with a more realistic risk assessment.
  • CONCLUSIONS
    Mid-term problems to a ‘recently enlarged port sector’ with investors rediscovering risk
    Provide opportunities:
    to develop corrective actions as good days will be back.
    to revisit growth expectations as trade growth is not exponential.
  • Topics for Discussion
    How solid are the growth fundamentals for the shipping industry?
    Which sectors and regions are the most vulnerable?
    Who is likely to default next?
    Signs of divesture?
    What could be the “new normal”?
  • Thank you for your attention !
    theo.notteboom@ua.ac.be
    jean-paul.rodrigue@hofstra.edu