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The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...
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The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...

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  • TIME FRAME: 30 minutes.
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie docthfst 5
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie presentatie Durban update
  • Zie iamemelbourne sheet
  • Cash problems among many companies.Fear for structural overcapacity in the market: Underutilization of terminals: on average only 60% utilization by 2013 based on the March 2009 forecasts, while the September 2008 still predicted 90%.Cancellation of or the delay in a number of capacity expansions plans.Overcapacity is expected to force down tariffs and undermine the ROI:Terminal business less interesting to financial firms.Potential difficulties for financing of large terminal projects.Renegotiation of existing concession agreements inevitable?
  • While the current context is prone to uncertainties, it can be anticipated that once the mal-investments caused by the housing bubble and its contamination of the global economy have been cleared by a deep recession, a new period of growth will result. The storm will abate, leading to a calmer period where future trends are easier to assess. The following interrelated points can provide a guideline:1) The global economy will be rebalanced under different fundamentals that are likely to be linked with lower growth rates.2) The emphasis appears to be shifting towards of a rationalization of supply chains. Growth prospects are being questioned, at least on the medium run, so supply chains will be modified to cope with these conditions.3) Globalization is likely to be more regional in character. Energy prices, in spite of the recent sharp correction, are much higher than they were a few years ago. Coupled with supply chain rationalization production and distribution may tend to stick more to regional trade agreements.4) In light of the above points, the setting of gateways / inland ports coupled with freight clusters will continue. The most successful clusters are likely to be the ones able to provide balanced cargo flows (imports and exports) and if cargo is very imbalanced, very productive added value activities.
  • Transcript

    • 1. The Ramifications of the Crisis:Revising Future ExpectationsTheo NotteboomITMMA - University of Antwerp and Antwerp Maritime AcademyJean-Paul RodrigueDepartment of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra UniversityTerminal Operators Conference - EuropeValencia (Spain), June 8-10 2010
    • 2. Outline
      Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
      Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
      Towards a paradigm shift?
    • 3. 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
      World trade and manufacturing output
      Source: EU
    • 4. GDP growth (q-o-q) in EU
      GDP growth (index) in EU
      Source: EU
      1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    • 5. Industrial production - EU
      Industrial production - world
      Source: EU
      1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    • 6. Private consumption in EU
      Investments in capital goods in EU
      Source: EU
      1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
    • 7. 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
      Increased need for factoring in
      uncertainty/risk in business strategies
    • 8. Outline
      Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
      Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
      Towards a paradigm shift?
    • 9. How serious is the throughput issue?The European case
      The bubble effect?
    • 10. Container throughput development and various forecasts, Antwerp
      Source: Notteboom
    • 11. Top 15 European container ports
      = port gained places in ranking (2008-2009)
      = port lost places in ranking (2008-2009)
    • 12. Taking a medium-term view on traffic development: Winners and losers during the period 2006-2009
      THE MAIN WINNERS
      THE MAIN LOSERS
      Source: ITMMA – own compilation
    • 13. Med and UK succeeded in reversing recent decline in market share
    • 14. Changes in Container Traffic at Some Major European Ports, 2008-2009-Q1 2010
      Growth differences mainly explained by:
      • Consolidation of volumes on trunk lines
      • 15. End of capacity constraints in some ports
      • 16. Major inter-port shifts in transhipment business
      • 17. Russia effect
      Source: statistics individual port authorities
    • 18. Trade volumes per route to/from Europe: Mixed results
      Inventory replenishment or an
      underlying recovery in demand ?
      Source: based on data EELA
    • 19. Revisiting transshipment in Europe
      Hamburg
      Rotterdam
      Bremerhaven
      Antwerp
      Le Havre
      Zeebrugge
      Taranto
      Barcelona
      Cagliari
      Valencia
      Sines
      Piraeus
      Algeciras
      Gioia Tauro
      Malta
      Tanger Med
    • 20. Market shares of ports in the West-Med according to diversion distance from the main route
    • 21.
    • 22. The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes
      Containers: challenge of co-modality and cargo bundling on short distances
      Containerized
      cargo by road,
      rail and barge
    • 23. The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes
      Harlingen
      Groningen
      Leeuwarden
      Veendam
      Drachten
      Seaport in Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta
      Alkmaar
      Meppel
      Inland Container Terminal (barge or multimodal)
      Zaandam
      Beverwijk
      Kampen
      Almelo
      Amsterdam
      Hengelo
      Growth region European
      Distribution (outside seaport system)
      Netherlands
      Hillegom
      Utrecht
      Ede
      Zutphen
      ROTTERDAM
      A. a/d Rijn
      Logistics corridors
      Valburg
      Nijmegem
      Gorinchem
      Oss
      Germany
      Oosterhout
      Emmerich
      Den Bosch
      Duisburg
      Tilburg
      Gennep
      Zeeland Seaports
      Moerdijk
      Dortmund
      Krefeld
      Zeebrugge
      ANTWERP
      Helmond
      Venlo
      Duesseldorf
      Deurne
      Ostend
      Neuss
      Meerhout
      Dunkirk
      Dormagen
      Born
      Genk
      Willebroek
      Cologne
      Ghent
      Wielsbeke
      Stein
      Grimbergen
      Bonn
      Belgium
      Brussels
      Avelgem
      Liège
      Lille
      Andernach
      Valenciennes
      Koblenz
      France
      Mertert
      Lux
      Competition but also synergy between regional ports
      Increasing role of inland/dry ports
    • 24. Gateway port
      Multi-port gateway regions
      1. Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta
      2. Helgoland Bay
      3. UK SE Coast
      4. Spanish Med
      5. Ligurian Range
      6. Seine Estuary
      7. Black Sea West
      8. South Finland
      9. Portugese Range
      10. North Adriatic
      11. Gdansk Bay
      12. Kattegat/The Sound
      Transhipment/interlining port
      (transhipment incidence >75%)
      Gateway port also handling
      substantial transhipment flows
      Multi-port gateway region
      8
      Main shipping route
      12
      11
      2
      1
      3
      Americas
      West
      Germany
      South Poland/
      Czech Republic/
      Slovakia/Hungary
      6
      Bavaria
      Alpine region
      Americas
      Northern
      Italy
      7
      South
      France
      10
      5
      9
      Madrid and
      surroundings
      4
      Main shipping route
      Middle East – Far East
      Ports increasingly compete for more distant hinterlands
    • 25. Keeping Track of the Big Picture: Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System
    • 26. Outline
      Towards an economic recovery in Europe?
      Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?
      Towards a paradigm shift?
    • 27. The Double Squeeze on Ports and Maritime Shipping
      Maritime Shipping
      Overcapacity
      New terminals coming online
      New ships coming online (+ cancellations)
      Contestability for gateways
      Contestability for hubs
      Rebalancing
      Supply
      Demand
      Port Operations
      Lower profitability
      Less pressures on terminal resources
      Less financial appeal
    • 28. M&A activity in terminal operating industry
      Expected net returns on investment grossly overrated on assumptions that:
      container throughput figures would go through the ceiling
      container handling facilities would be in short supply
      prices would rise steeply.
      Since 2008: no major terminal transactions
      Max 8 to 10 times EBITBA
      Shipping lines’ divestment in terminals?
    • 29. A more prudent approach to plot sizes of capacity extensions?
      Deurganckdock
      5.3 km quay wall,
      326 ha, 44 GC
      8m TEU
      • Rotterdam: Euromax
      • 30. 5.5m TEU, 2.3m TEU in 1st phase
      • 31. Rotterdam: Maasvlakte I & II
      • 32. Le Havre: Port 2000
    • Rebalancing risk
      Globalization and the growth of the shipping industry appear to have skewed the perception of risk downward.
      Source: Rodrigue, Notteboom and Pallis (2009)
    • 33. The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports
    • 34. The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports
    • 35. Will we get back to a ‘business as usual’ scenario?
      No: the ‘business as usual’ practices between 2002 and 2008 were highly ‘unusual’.
      Medium-term perspective (3-5 years):
      Sustained pressure on terminal rates due to restructuring/consolidation of shipping services and memory effects in terminal overcapacity situation.
      Actors will continue to show cautious in competitive bidding processes.
      Long-term perspective (>5 years):
      Strategic port sites remain scarce goods.
      Terminals will regain status as interesting investment objects, but with a more realistic risk assessment.
    • 36. CONCLUSIONS
      Mid-term problems to a ‘recently enlarged port sector’ with investors rediscovering risk
      Provide opportunities:
      to develop corrective actions as good days will be back.
      to revisit growth expectations as trade growth is not exponential.
    • 37. Topics for Discussion
      How solid are the growth fundamentals for the shipping industry?
      Which sectors and regions are the most vulnerable?
      Who is likely to default next?
      Signs of divesture?
      What could be the “new normal”?
    • 38. Thank you for your attention !
      theo.notteboom@ua.ac.be
      jean-paul.rodrigue@hofstra.edu

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