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impact of recession


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  • 2. “ This is not the end of the world The only thing that will bring on the end of the world will be the end of world “
  • 3. Factors that push an economy in to recession
    • Credit crunch : Shortage of finance
    • Falling house prices : related to shortage of mortgages and credit crunch.
    • Cost push inflation squeezing incomes and reducing disposable income.
    • Collapse in confidence of finance sector causing lower confidence amongst real economy.
  • 4. Financial factors of Recession
  • 5. Subprime Lending
    • What are subprime loans?
    • A type of loan that is offered at a rate above prime to individuals who do not qualify for prime rate loans. Quite often, subprime borrowers are often turned away from traditional lenders because of their low credit ratings or other factors that suggest that they have a reasonable chance of defaulting on the debt repayment .
  • 6. Increased rate of subprime lending
  • 7. It all started in U.S………………….
    • In US, a boom in the housing sector was driving the economy to a new level.  A combination of low interest rates and large inflows of foreign funds helped to create easy credit conditions where it became quite easy for people to take home loans. As more and more people took home loans, the demands for property increased and fueled the home prices further. As there was enough money to lend to potential borrowers, the loan agencies started to widen their loan disbursement reach and relaxed the loan conditions.
  • 8. Contd…………..
    • As a result, many people with low income & bad credit history or those who come under the NINJA (No Income, No Job, No Assets) category were given housing loans in disregard to all principles of financial prudence.
  • 9. Bubble that burst………
  • 10. Bubble that burst………
    • As the saying goes, “No boom lasts forever”, the housing bubble was to burst eventually. Overbuilding of houses during the boom period finally led to a surplus inventory of homes, causing home prices to decline beginning from the summer of 2006. Once housing prices started depreciating in many parts of the U.S., refinancing became more difficult. Home owners, who were expecting to get a refinance on the basis of increased home prices, found themselves unable to re-finance and began to default on loans as their loans reset to higher interest rates and payment amounts.
  • 11. Cond………..
    • Now you must be wondering how this housing boom and its subsequent decline is related to current economic depression? After all it appears to be a local problem of America.
  • 12. What complicated the matter?…
    • The interest rate charged on subprime loans was about 2% higher than the interest on prime loans ; lenders were confidant that they would get a handsome return on their investment. In case a sub-prime borrower continued to pay his loans installment, the lender would get higher interest on the loans. And in case a sub-prime borrower could not pay his loan and defaulted, the lender would have the option to sell his home (on a high market price) and recovered his loan amount. In both the situations the Sub-prime loans were excellent investment options as long as the housing market was booming. Just at this point, the things started complicating.
  • 13. Contd………………..
    • As the home prices started declining in the US, sub-prime borrowers found themselves in a messy situation. Their house prices were decreasing and the loan interest on these houses was soaring. As they could not manage a second mortgage on their home, it became very difficult for them to pay the higher interest rate. As a result many of them opted to default on their home loans and vacated the house. However, as the home prices were falling rapidly, the lending companies, which were hoping to sell them and recover the loan amount, found them in a situation where loan amount exceeded the total cost of the house. Eventually, there remained no option but to write off losses on these loans.
  • 14. Mayhem in the banks….
  • 15. Mayhem in the banks….
    • The effects of these losses were huge. Global banks and brokerages have had to write off an estimated $512 billion in subprime losses so far, with the largest hits taken by Citigroup ($55.1 billion) and Merrill Lynch ($52.2 billion). A little over half of these losses, or $260 billion, have been suffered by US-based firms, $227 billion by European firms and a relatively modest $24 billion by Asian ones.
  • 16. Subprime Losers
    • Investment banks - many large investment firms have seen their stock prices plummet as a result of the subprime bust.
  • 17.
    • What is worse is the fact that the losses suffered by banks in the subprime mess have directly affected their money market the world over.
  • 18. Now what is a money market?
    • Money Market is actually an inter-bank market where banks borrow and lend money among themselves to meet short-term need for funds. Banks usually never hold the exact amount of cash that they need to disburse as credit. The ‘inter-bank’ market performs this critical role of bringing cash-surplus and cash-deficit banks together and lubricates the process of credit delivery to companies (for working capital and capacity creation) and consumers (for buying cars, white goods etc). As the housing loan crisis intensified, banks grew increasingly suspicious about each other’s solvency and ability to honour commitments. The inter-bank market shrank as a result and this began to hurt the flow of funds to the ‘real’ economy.
  • 19. How it has affected India?
    • In the age of globalization, no country can remains isolated from the fluctuations of world economy. Heavy losses suffered by major International Banks is going to affect all countries of the world as these financial institutes have their investment interest in almost all countries.
  • 20. As of now India is facing heat on three grounds…………….
    • (1) Our Share Markets are falling everyday
    • (2) Rupee is weakening against dollars
    • (3) Our banks are facing severe crash crunch resulting in shortage of liquidity in the market.
    • Greed of some…woes of billions
  • 22.
    • If you think about this with a cool mind, you will find that the underlying cause of this depression is the greed of those who failed to anticipate the consequence of their actions. On a more ideological front, it is high time to have a rethink on the very idea of free markets and capitalism. I think the time has come to evolve a capitalism where everything works under a broad regulatory framework and we do not see a repeat of this condition where greed of some people can affect the lives of billions.
  • 23.
    • “ For every problem under the sun
    • There is a solution or is none
    • If there is one, try to find it
    • If there is none , never mind it”.
  • 24. THANKYOU