Vizhinjam way forward sep 7 2012

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  • 1. Vizhinjam  Deep  water  Port  Project  A  New  Vision  and  Way  Forward   1  
  • 2. Agenda    •  Revisi>ng  the  Market  •  Core  ABrac>ons  of  the  Project  •  Modifica>ons  to  the  Master  Plan  •  Development  Structure  •  Expanded  Government  Support   2  
  • 3. Market  Study  -­‐  1    •  Current   study   by   Drewry/IFC   under-­‐es>mates   the   poten>al  of  the  port   •  Very   conserva>ve   projec>on   of   container   transshipment   volumes  even  aPer  assuming  deep  rate  discounts     •  Benefits  of  deep  draP  and  strategic  loca>on  to  act  as  single   stop  for  India  for  10,000+  TEU  class  ships  not  factored  in   •  Vizhinjam   has   been   posi>oned   as   “just   another   container   port”  and  not  a  regional  transshipment  hub   •  Lessons   of   successful   “transshipment-­‐only”   hubs,   such   as   Salalah  (99.5%  transshipment)  or  Tanjung  Pelapas  (95.8%),   not  incorporated  into  market  forecasts   •  Poten>al   for   cargo   such   as   LNG   and   coal   ignored,   ci>ng   the   need  to  be  a  “green  port”     •  Poten>al   for   deep   water   shipyard   not   factored   in   despite   clear  proposal  from  CSL   3  
  • 4. Market  Study  -­‐  2    •  Further  traffic  drivers  need  to  be  taken  into  account:   •  Study  cost-­‐savings  of  using  10,000+  TEU  vessels  and  use  as   a   strategic   driver   for   transshipment   traffic;   18   m   depth   to   be  used  as  USP   •  Posi>on  Vizhinjam  as  “the  one  stop  in  India”  for  6th  and  7th   genera3on   ships”   –   aBract   a   line   such   as   APM   or   MSC   that   typically   call   at   one   transshipment   hub   per   country   with   minimum  devia>on  from  the  shipping  lanes   •  Kerala   has   a   significant   power   deficit   –   poten>al   for   LNG   terminal  and  LNG  power  plant   •  Shipyard   and   bunkering   facility   to   be   included   in   market   study   4  
  • 5. Market  Study  -­‐  3    •  Govt.  of  India  has  proposed  revision  of  SEZ  rules  •  Single-­‐sector/Port  based  SEZs  will  need  only  40  hectares/100   acres  as  opposed  to  100  hectares/250  acres  •  Mul>product   SEZs   will   need   only   250   hectares/625   acres   as   opposed  to  1000  hectares/2500  acres  •  Significant  dis-­‐con>guity  may  be  allowed  for  large  SEZs  as  long   as  clear  connec>ons  can  be  established  •  The   Vizhinjam   market   study   should   now   factor   in   at   least   a   Port-­‐based   SEZ;   necessary   for   exemp>on   from   Customs   for   transshipment  cargo;  precedent  established  at  Vallarpadam  •  Poten>al  for  Mul>-­‐product  SEZ  to  be  studied  –  land  available   in  the  Southern  (Poovar)  and  Eastern  parts  of  district   5  
  • 6. Vizhinjam  Has  to  be  Developed  as  a  World-­‐class  port  because  it….    •  Is  Strategically  Located  •  Has  Global  Scale  •  Has  the  Lowest  Opera>ng  Costs  •  Can  be  the  Gateway  to  South  India   6  
  • 7. Strategic  Loca>on   •  Vizhinjam  is  less  than  10  nau>cal  miles  from   the  Suez/Gulf-­‐Malacca  shipping  lane   •  Closest  Indian  port  to  30%  of  world  sea  traffic   •  Best  located  port-­‐of-­‐call    in  India  for  container   ships,  cruise  vessels  and  tankers   •  Access  to  large  hinterland  area  in  South  India   •  Also  ideal  for  ship  repair  and  bunkering   facili>es   7  Actual  photo  of  a  supertanker  sailing  close  off   the  Vizhinjam  shore,  sans  dredging  
  • 8. Global  Scale   •  Site  has  a  natural  draP  of  18-­‐23  m   •  With  minimal  capital  dredging,  the  project  will  be   the  only  container  terminal  in  India  capable  of   handling  container  ships  of  >  12,000  TEUs   •  Rapid  increase  in  container  ship  size  –  latest   genera>on  will  carry  up  to  18,000  TEUs   •  Economies  of  scale  will  allow  for  the  lowest   logis>cs  costs   •  Ideal  loca>on  for  container  transhipment  terminal  16   8  
  • 9. Compe>>ve  Opera>ng  Costs   •  Vizhinjam    needs  next  to  nil  maintenance   dredging  to  maintain  18-­‐20  m  draP   •  Compe>ng  ports  spend  hundreds  of  Millions  of   dollars  a  year  to  maintain  even  14  m  of  draP   •  Vizhinjam  has  full  flexibility  to  set  tariffs  to   aBract  business;  major  Indian  ports  are   constrained  by  regulators   •  New  workforce;  no  legacy  unioniza>on   9  
  • 10. Gateway  to  South  India  •  Within  18-­‐24  hours  road/ rail  transit  from  Vizhinjam:   •  120  million  consumers   •  $  180  Bn  of  GSDP   •  Bangalore,  Chennai,   Coimbatore,  Tu>corin  and   Tirunelveli  •  Within  36-­‐48  hours  road/ rail  distance  from  Vizhinjam:   •  220  Million  consumers   •  $  300  Bn  of  GSDP   •  Hyderabad,  Vizag  and  Goa   10  
  • 11. Capturing  the  Hinterland  •  To   assume   that   the   hinterland   for   Vizhinjam   is   constrained   between   those   of   Tu>corin   and   Ernakulam   is   to   incorrectly   concede   that   Vizhinjam   cannot   import/export   cargo   at   lower   seaborne   costs   because  it  can  handle  bigger  ships;    •  Total  transport  costs  =  sea  transit  +  land  transit  costs  •  Vizhinjam  can  move  cargo  at  rates  30-­‐50%  cheaper  than  compe>ng   ports  because  it  can  handle  much  bigger  ships  –  a  12,000  TEU  vessel   Vs  a  6000  TEU  vessel  •  Logis>cs   firms   will   quickly   shiP   to   the   lowest   total   cost   op>on   as   long  as  land  transit  can  be  made  cost-­‐efficient  and  fast  •  Vizhinjam  can  also  match,  if  not  beat,  exis>ng  ports’  handling  >mes   by  minimizing  conges>on  and  turn-­‐around  >me  for  ships  •  Such  shiPs  in  hinterland  cargo  are  already  being  seen  in  the  case  of   efficient,   deep   water   ports   such   as   Mundra,   Gangavaram   and   Ennore  •  However  world-­‐class  road-­‐rail  connec>vity  is  absolutely  cri>cal   11  
  • 12. Further  Development  Prospects   •  Vizhinjam  has  significant  poten>al  to  develop  into  a   premier  cruise  port   •  300  cruise  ships  transit  on  the  nearby  shipping  lanes  annually   •  Trivandrum  is  already  a  top  tourist  des>na>on   •  Cochin  Shipyard  Ltd.  has  already  announced  plans   to  set  up  a  VLCC-­‐class  ship  repair  and  building  yard   at  Vizhinjam   •  Poten>al  for  LNG  terminal  and  power  plant;     significant  energy  demand  in  South  India   12  
  • 13. LNG  as  a  Key  Energy  Source  -­‐  1  •  Kerala  is  currently  facing  an  acute  power  shortage   •  Current   genera>on   of   about   2500   MW   is   unable   to   meet   demand   of   about  3300  MW   •  Current  genera>on  is  mostly  hydel  and  is  at  the  mercy  of  the  weather   •  Opposi>on  to  coal  and  nuclear  plants;  shortage  of  land  •  Demand  is  expected  to  hit  6000-­‐7500  MW  by  2020   Supply  shortall  •  Minimal   addi>on   expected;   MW   for   KKNPP   and   gas   sta>ons   8000   associated   with   Petronet   6000   LNG  terminal   4000  •  Supply   gap   of   at   least   2000   2000   MW  by  2020   0   Current  State   Current   Demand   Supply   Demand   Es>mate   -­‐2020   Source:  18th  EPS  –  CERC;  WB;  KSEB   13  
  • 14. LNG  as  a  Key  Energy  Source  •  Liquefied   Natural   Gas   is   gaining   prominence   world-­‐wide   as   the   fossil-­‐ fuel  of  choice  •  LNG  is  cleaner  as  a  fuel  than  coal  •  Cost   of   power   produced   is   comparable   to   coal,   with   a   global   drop   in   LNG  prices  due  to  new  supply  in  Australia,  Africa  and  the  US  •  LNG   power   plants   are   much   more   compact   than   coal-­‐fired   power   sta>ons  –  40-­‐50  acres  of  a  1000  MW  gas  power  plant  Vs  400  acres  for  a   coal-­‐fired  plant  •  LNG  is  also  much  easier  to  handle  as  a  fuel  –  lower  volumes/MW  and  it   can  be  moved  via  pipelines  •  Natural  gas  can  also  power  vehicles  •  LNG  power  plants  are  cheaper  (per  MW)  and  faster  to  permit  and  build  •  In  short,  LNG  is  the  ideal  op>on  to  solve  Kerala’s  power  crisis   14  
  • 15. Gas-fired Power GenerationCCGT (Combined Cycle Gas Turbine) Very efficient generation technology“    Modern  combined  cycle  1000  MW  power   “    Diagram  CCGT,  a  combina>on  of  a    gas   plant  (CCGT)    -­‐  needs  ~  50  acres  of  land   turbine  and  a  steam  turbine.  Efficiency  ~     59  %.    16   15  
  • 16. LNG-fired power generationLowest capital costs per MW installed Capital costs of options may vary considerably in absolute terms, but very little in relative termsIndicative, cost levelsmillion $/MW            5              4              3              2                1  Source: MMD, June 2010 16  
  • 17. Lowest All-in Unit Costs per Kwh produced Competitive for meeting Base-load Demand $/MWh Prices (at plant inlet) Based on: 7000 hrs operation for gas and coal per year Gas : 8 $/MMBtu 2500 hrs for onshore wind per year Coal: 80 $/t 3600 hrs for offshore wind per year 7800 hrs for nuclear per yearSource: MMD, June 2010 17  
  • 18. Smaller plant size reduces risk of Overcapacity Minimum size to capture economies of scale (in MW) 1000 -1600 600 -1000 450 Gas CCGT Coal Nuclear supercriticalSource: MMD, June 2010 18  
  • 19. Short  construc>on  >me  reduces  risks  of   demand  uncertainty   years 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CCGT Coal Nuclear Plus shortest time for LA, permitting and constructionSource: Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA 2010 19  
  • 20. LNG  import  via  Vizhinjam  •  The   bulk   of   India’s   LNG   demand   will   be   met   via   imports   –   the   country’s   only  major  NG  source  –  the  KG  basin  –  has  been  underperforming  •  Major  suppliers  will  be  Qatar,  Australia,  Africa  (Mozambique)  and,  possibly   at  a  later  stage,  the  US  •  Vizhinjam  is  the  closest  port  for  imports  from  Australia,  Africa  and  North   America  (via  Malacca/Cape)  •  LNG  import  has  economies  of  scale  like  in  the  case  of  any  sea-­‐borne  trade   –  such  as  containers:  the  bigger  the  ship,  the  cheaper  it  is!  •  The   largest   LNG   carriers   –   such   as   the   260,000   Cu.m   Q-­‐MAX   –   can   be   30-­‐50%  more  cost-­‐efficient  to  import  gas  than  smaller  ships  •  Vizhinjam  can  handle  the  biggest  LNG  tankers  with  its  18  m  draP  •  Ideal   loca>on   for   a   2.5   MT/year   LNG   import   terminal   and   a   1000   MW   power  plant  (expandable  to  5  MT/year  and  2000  MW)  •  Can   supply   domes>c   gas   and   vehicle   fuel   to   Trivandrum,   Kollam,   Tirunelveli,   Tu>corin   and   Madurai   and   industrial   gas   to   Tu>corin   &   Tirunelveli   20  
  • 21. Cruise  Terminal  •  Hundreds  of  cruise  ships  cross  the  Indian  Ocean  and  transit  very  close   to  Indian  ports  •  Over  100  cruise  calls  were  made  at  ports  like  Mumbai,  Mangalore,  Goa   and  Kochi  •  Close  to  50  made  calls  at  Kochi  because  of  its  proximity  to  the  shipping   lane  and  the  aBrac>veness  of  Kerala  as  a  tourist  des>na>on  •  Vizhinjam   is   the   closest   Indian   port   to   the   interna>onal   shipping   lane   –   a   cruise   ship   will   have   to   divert   only   an   hour   to   call   at   Vizhinjam   Vs   about  10  hours  to  call  at  Kochi  and  24+  hours  at  Goa  •  Vizhinjam  is  located  right  inside  Kerala’s  top  foreign  tourist  aBrac>on  –   the  Trivandrum  –  Kovalam  –  Kollam  tourist  belt  •  As  a  greenfield  port,  cruise  ships  will  not  encounter  conges>on  •  India’s  first  world-­‐class  Cruise  Terminal  at  Vizhinjam  could  aBract  over   100  ships  and  up  to  100,000  premium  tourists  every  year!   21  
  • 22. Deep  Water  Shipyard  •  Significant  market  for  ship  repair  and  construc>on   •  About   1/3rd   of   global   shipping   passes   close   to   Vizhinjam,   necessita>ng   periodic  maintenance  and  repair  of  tens  of  thousands  of  ships  each  year   •  India  and  Asia  are  seeing  rapid  addi>on  in  shipping  capacity  –  especially  for   container  ships  and  LNG  tankers  •  No  deep  water  shipyard  between  Dubai  and  Singapore  •  Indian   workers   form   a   major   part   of   the   workforce   at   Dubai   &   Singapore;  India  is  well  known  for  low  cost,  high  quality  engineering  •  Vizhinjam  has  a  draP  of  18  m  and  can  build  any  size  ship  •  Cochin  Shipyard  Limited  has  already  expresses  strong  interest  in  a  deep   water  ship  repair  and  construc>on  yard  at  Vizhinjam;  needs  larger  yard   to  complete  its  order  book  including  India’s  second  new  aircraP  carrier  •  The  shipyard  will  aBract  more  traffic  to  the  port  and  create  thousands  of   Crores  of  economic  ac>vity  including  for  small  manufacturers   22  
  • 23. Master  Plan  –  Basic  Concepts  -­‐  1  •  Deep  water  port  with  a  focus  on  container   transshipment;   close   to   the   int’l   shipping   lanes  •  Design   emphasis   should   be   on   creaGng   a   world-­‐class   port,   NOT   on   cuMng   costs   to   build  a  mediocre  port  –  ALL-­‐IN  STRATEGY!  •  Design  draP  in  Phase  I  itself  should  be  the   best   in   India   –   18   m   at   least   –   sufficient   for   6th  genera>on  ships  •  Turning   circle/breakwater   length   to   be   sufficient   to   handle   6th   genera>on   ships   (10,000  TEUs)  •  Future-­‐proof   by   Maximizing   berth   length   within  loca>onal  constraints  –  have  berths   along   main   breakwater   and   allowance   of   two  way  vessel  traffic  in  port  channel   23  
  • 24. Master  Plan  –  Basic  Concepts  -­‐  2  •  Container  berths  need  to  be  located  on  the  land  side  of  the   basin  since  they  need  adjacent  stacking  areas  for  maximum   opera>onal  efficiency  •  Since  there  are  constraints  on  the  total  length  of  coast  that   the  project  can  occupy,  it’ll  be  ideal  to  create  another  line   of  berths  along  the  main  breakwater  •  Cruise,  LNG  and  liquid  cargo  terminals  can  be  located  along   the  breakwater  •  Vizhinjam   Port   area   development   including   logis>cs   hubs,   Container  Freight  Sta>ons  (CFS)  etc  to  be  planned  •  Addi>on  of  bunkering  facility  •  Mul>purpose/general  cargo  handling  to  be  provisioned  for  •  Strategic   Choice:   Longer   berth   length,   greater   basin   depth   and  capacity  Vs  increased  construc>on  cost  16   24  
  • 25. Master  Plan  Modifica>ons  Phase  I  capacity  to  be  at  least   Phase  II  capacity  1.5  Mn  TEUs   to  be  at  least  =   Phase  I  Phase  I  Design  Depth  to  be  18  m   Move  Cruise   Terminal  to   Breakwater  Turning  circle  to  accommodate  6th   Move  Main  Gen  ships   Breakwater   further  out  to   sea  to  allow   berths  for  non-­‐ 16   25   container  uses  
  • 26. Master  Plan  on  Site  
  • 27. ABrac>ve  Deal  Structure   •  The  State  Government  of  Kerala   PORT   acts  as  the  ‘Landlord’;  it  pays  for   basic  facili>es  such  as  the   breakwater,  berths  and  road/rail   connec>vity   •  Landlord  invests  75%  of  capital   Landlord  Invests   BASIC   cost   75%  of  project   INFRSTRUCTURE   •  Operator/Investor  develops   cost   terminal  infrastructure;  invests  SoP   Revenue   25%  of  capital  cost  Debt   Share   •  Landlord  can  provide  ‘soP  debt’   Operator   TERMINAL   Opera>ng   support;  at  low  interest  and  with   invests  25%   SUPERSTRUCTURE   Revenue   a  10  yr  repayment  moratorium   •  Operator/Investor  receives  all   opera>ng  revenue  for  30  years;   op>on  to  share  with  Landlord   27  
  • 28. Modifying  the  Business  Model  •  Offer  the  private  investor  the  op>on  to  set  the  business  plan  for  the   en>re  port  as  opposed  to  just  the  container  terminal  •  A   Swiss-­‐Challenge   op>on   to   develop   further   container   and   non-­‐ container  terminals  •  Rather  than  the  Government  ge{ng  involved  in  marine  services  as   is  envisaged  in  the  current  Landlord  model,  all  opera>ons  would  be   leP  to  the  operator  •  As   opposed   to   an   op>onal   revenue   share,   the   Government   could   mandate  a  share  of  the  overall  net  income(cargo  handing  +  marine   charges)  above  a  Preferred  Return  earned  by  the  private  investor  •  The   Investor/Operator   makes   an   offer   based   on   the   share   of   revenue  that  it  will  offer  to  GoK  above  the  Preferred  Return   •  This  could  be  modified  for  later  phases  based  on  the  rela>ve  investment   by  the  public  and  private  sectors     28  
  • 29. Increased  Government  Support  -­‐  1  •  Establishment   of   Port-­‐based   and   Mul>-­‐Product   SEZs;   along   with   road/rail   connec>vity   between   the   port   and   SEZs  •  Improve  hinterland  connec>vity  for  Vizhinjam;  to  rest  of   Kerala,  South  TN,  Coimbatore  and  Bangalore   •  New  mixed  use  rail  corridor  from  Vizhinjam  to  Coimbatore   and  Mangalore;  high  speed  rail  and  passenger  services   •  Road   connec>vity   to   Southern   TN   via   KoBur-­‐ Ambasamudram   •  Coastal  passenger  &  freight  shipping  services  •  Immediate   decision   to   establish   CSL’s   new   deep   draP   shipyard  at  Vizhinjam     29  
  • 30. Road  Connec>vity  •  The   exis>ng   road   infrastructure   in   Kerala   is   severely   congested  •  4/6-­‐laning   of   NH-­‐66   from   TN   Border   to   Mangalore   to   be   taken  up  urgently  •  Four   Lane   road   to   T i r u n e l v e l i   v i a   Ambasamudram   to   be  re-­‐developed  •  GoK   to   apply   for   GoI   funding   under   port   Stretch to be upgraded to 4/6 lane connec>vity  scheme   Existing 4 lane New 4 lane road 30  
  • 31. Rail  Connec>vity  •  Upgrade   key   rail   routes   to   p r o v i d e   h i g h   s p e e d   connec>vity   to   key   ci>es   like   M a n g a l o r e ,   C o i m b a t o r e ,   C h e n n a i ,   B a n g a l o r e ,   Tirunelveli,   Tu>corin   and   Kochi  •  Electrifica>on   of   en>re   route   to  Chennai  via  Nagercoil    •  New  North-­‐South  rail  corridor   needed   from   Trivandrum   to   Mangalore   as   current   routes   are  at  over  100%  capacity     31  
  • 32. Increased  Government  Support  -­‐  2  •  Parity  with  Vallarpadam  on  incen>ves  and  policies  –   Cabotage,  Customs  clearance,  tax  incen>ves  etc  •  Preferen>al   power   purchase   policy   for   an   LNG   power  plant  that  sources  fuel  via  Vizhinjam  since  the   port  is  a  State  Government  project  •  Expedite   construc>on   of   Outer   Ring   Road   in   Trivandrum   to   provide   more   land   for   port-­‐based   industrial  uses  •  Expedite  4/6  laning  of  NH-­‐66  and  connec>on  to  the   Na>onal  Highway  network  •  PPP   mode   development   of   logis>cs   and   industrial   areas  including  warehouses,  CFS  etc   32  
  • 33. Logis>cs  Zone  -­‐  1  •  World-­‐class   Industrial   facili>es   including   logis>cs   and   light   manufacturing  space  is  a  cri>cal  success  factor  for  a  major  port  like   Vizhinjam  •  World-­‐wide,   the   concentra>on   of   industrial   real   estate   is   closely   correlated  with  hub  ports  •  Focus   areas   for   value   addi>on   in   the   supply   chain,   such   as   just-­‐in-­‐ >me   inventory   management,   re-­‐packaging   of   cargo   for   regional   distribu>on  and  loading/unloading  of  containers,  require  world-­‐class   logis>cs  spaces  •  These  ac>vi>es  will  be  a  differen>ator  for  Vizhinjam  Vs  current  ports   which  generally  only  have  rudimentary  warehouses  •  World-­‐class   logis>cs   spaces   will   aBract   global   logis>cs   and   retail   players  who  are  currently  entering  India  •  Generate  addi>onal  employment  and  economic  ac>vity   33  
  • 34. Logis>cs  Networks  and  Hubs   •  Logis>cs   space   is   co-­‐located   with   major   ports   and   airports;   increases  importance  of  hubs  in  the  supply  chain   •  In  the  US,  there  is  an  average  of  36  SF  of  space/TEU  handled     34  
  • 35. Logis>cs  Zone  -­‐  2  •  Considering  an  ini>al  container  terminal  capacity  of  1,500,000  TEUs   and   80%   transshipment,   Vizhinjam   will   need   up   to   8,000,000   SF   of   logis>cs  space  •  GoK   should   set   up   a   Free   Trade   Warehouse   Zone   (FTWZ)   on   100   acres   of   land   close   to   the   port   and   engage   private   developers   to   build  and  operate  world-­‐class  logis>cs  facili>es  •  Build   a   combina>on   of   storage   warehouses,   cross-­‐docking   facili>es   for  re-­‐distribu>on  opera>ons  and  regional  distribu>on  facili>es    •  Anchor  tenants  could  include  major  retail  players  such  as  IKEA,  Wal-­‐ Mart,   Future   Group,   Carrefour,   METRO,   Amazon,   E-­‐Bay   etc   and   logis>cs   players   such   as   global   shipping   lines   and   cargo   operators   like  DHL,  FedEx  and  UPS  •  On-­‐site   access   to   road   and   rail   transport   and   ancillary   facili>es   like   truck  maintenance,  Customs  &  Security  etc   35  
  • 36. Key  Next  Steps  •  Appoint   consultants   to   update   market   study   and   to   re-­‐ visit  development  and  business  plans  •  AECOM   to   prepare   master   plan   according   to   updated   market  study  and  business  plan  •  Govt.   of   Kerala   &   VISL   to   explore   G2G   op>ons   to   iden>fy   a  capable  operator   •  Under  the  leadership  of  the  Hon.  MP  of  Trivandrum   •  Focused   discussions   with   Governments   that   have   na>onal/ regional  port  operators    such  as  Barcelona,  Singapore,  Hamburg   and  Malaysia   •  Pro-­‐ac>ve   discussion   with   Liner   based   Operators   who   would   be   direct   beneficiaries   in   transshipment   terminals   such   as   APM   Terminals   (Maersk),   APL   Terminals   (APL/NOL),   Terminal   Link   (CMA  CGM),    Ceres  Global  (NYK  Liners),  Hapag  Lloyd  etc   36  
  • 37. THANK  YOU  ©  Benny,  Gopinathan  and  Prasad,  MMXII   37