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Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet   Tim Searchinger
 

Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet Tim Searchinger

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A presentation by Timothy D Searchinger of Princeton University at the opening session of the inaugural Global Research Alliance meeting in Wellington, New Zealand.

A presentation by Timothy D Searchinger of Princeton University at the opening session of the inaugural Global Research Alliance meeting in Wellington, New Zealand.

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    Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet   Tim Searchinger Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet Tim Searchinger Presentation Transcript

    • FEEDING A HOT AND HUNGRY PLANET
      Tim Searchinger
      (Princeton University, German Marshall Fund of the U.S.
      tsearchi@princeton.edu
      Courtesy IIASA
    • Ag’s Contribution to World Greenhouse Gases ~ 30%
      Nitrous oxide – fertilizer, livestock deposits, biomass burning
      Methane – livestock (enteric), cows, rice, manure, biomass burning
      Energy – farm machinery, fertilizer, irrigation pumps
      13 million hectares/yr gross deforestation
      N20 and NH4 to grow 60% by 2030
      (IPCC 2007; Bellarby2008 , in CO2 eq.)
    • - 16% of world malnourished
      - 1/3 of children in developing world stunted
      - 30 million babies born impaired due to lack of natal nutrition
      - 5 million children die annually from causes related to lack of nutrition
    • Undernourished People and Recent Changes
      Source: FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity In the World, 2008
    • Agriculture Mitigation Potential at $100/t(IPPC 2007 Mitigation Report)
    • The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains
      No Till
      Depth
      Baker et al., Agriculture Ecosystems and Env. 118:1-5 (2007);
      Blanco-Canqui & Lal, SSSAJ 72:693-701 (2008)
      Nitrous Oxide
      Africa
      Are we actually losing soil carbon?
      UK, Midwest
      New Zealand
    • Biochar?
    • Conventional approach
      But . . .
      Biofuels & Greenhouse Gases
      Land grows plants (carbon) anyway
      * forest
      * food
      Only ADDITIONAL plant growth helps
    • Large Bioenergy Potential Studies
      Most potential arable land – IPCC 2007 chapter 8 - 1.3billion hectares and/or
      All forest growth in excess of harvest (Smeets 2008)and/or
      All “abandoned” cropland (Hoodwijk (2004) and/or
      Hundreds of millions of hectares of “grazing” or “other” land – savannah (Fischer 2001; Smith 2007)
      Recounts existing forest, forest re-growth, net terrestrial carbon sink, land counted for grazing
    • Unused Cropland is Mostly Wetter Savannah, Woodlots and Forest in Latin America and Africa
    • Other Uses of Land?
      More cropland and pasture for food –200-500 million hectares by 2050
      Terrestrial carbon sink – 9.5 GT CO2/yr
      Avoided deforestation potential – 9 Gt/year
      Afforestation mitigation potential – 4 Gt/year
      Restore peatlands – 1.3 gigatons/year
      All from IPCC 2007 Mitigation Report, chapters 8 & 9
    • IPCC Baselines – Mission Accomplished? IPCC SRES ScenariosPredicted Emissions from Land Use Change Gigatons C
    • Can We Avoid Land Use Change for Food?
      Croplands
      Agriculture occupies 35% of ice free surface
      Grazing lands
      Foley J A et al. PNAS 2007;104:12585-12586
      ©2007 by National Academy of Sciences
    • No-policy scenario
      Carbon Dioxide Emissions – Reilly (MIT) – Impact of Ozone
      Note: Emissions from land use change are those from projected changes. Continuing uptake from forest regrowth from pre-2000 land use change and changed uptake (due to CO2/climate) on undisturbed land is not shown.
    • Impacts on Yields of Climate Change Itself
      Change in average maximum temperature ( oC), 2000–2050
      top is CSIRO; bottom is NCAR
      Nelson et al., Climate Change Impact on Agriculture (IFPRI 2009)
      With no crop fertilization effect , by 2050:
      –Rice yields decline by 14 – 18% in developing countries
      - Irrigated wheat declines 28-34%
    • Areas of Water Stress (IIASA)
    • Optimism: Yields Gaps
      also:
      * Much food waste
      * Biotechnology
      • Livestock intensification opportunities
      • FAO’s latest estimate ~120 million hectares additional cropland by 2050
      Courtesy of Pedro Sanchez
    • Natural Forest (Melillo, Gurgel, et al. 2008)
      Natural Forest
    • Natural Forest (“Deforestation” Scenario)
      Natural Forest
    • Land Lessons
      Land is limited
      MORE CARBON NOT DIFFERENT CARBON
      Understand land/input tradeoffs
    • Important question: where isthe underutilized “other” land
      Carbon content
      Outputs
      Biodiversity
      Ownership
      Barriers to use
    • Peatland Restoration – 1.3 Gt/y (IPCC 2007 Mitigation)
    • 70% of rice straw in Punjab burned
      Punia, Current Science 94:1185-1190 (2008)
    • Predicted 2000-2010 Pasture & Cropland Expansion
      in Latin America
      Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change 17:86-104 (2007)
      Two thirds of net agricultural expansion is pasture
    • Sources of Nitrous Oxide
      Adapted from Davidson, Nature Geoscience2:659-662 (2009)
    • Steinfeld et al. 2007, Livestock’s Long Shadow (FAO)
    • World Grazing Land
      Haberl et al., PNAS 104:12942-12947
      Contrast FAO Grazing Land NPP World - 1047
    • Rangeland Thoughts
      Possible Pursuit: Productivity enhancement plus forest regeneration
    • Better UnderstandingChallenges of Lifecycle Analysis for Livestock(source TheunVellinga, Wageninen University)
      Reasonable data available
      Kilograms of meat, milk, slaughtered animals
      Total numbers of animals
      Total fertilizer input on country level
      No systematic data available
      herd demography
      feed use
      pasture quality
      feed production
      and manure management
    • Doberman, Cassman, Ser. C Life Sciences 48:745-758 (2005)
    • Deep Placed Urea Supergranules
      IFDC
      17-33% yield gains, decreases urea by 33%
    • and now a brief advertisement . . .
    • Final Thoughts
      “All” is beautiful
      Seek copper bullets
      Don’t forget the “D” of R&D
      Practical/strategic approach
      Coordinating teams
      Scrutinize the teams
      Constantly question & improve numbers & make real field assessments
      Mix technology, policy, development & basic research
      Give rangeland the respect it deserves
      Immediate Policies That Can’t Wait
      Integrate REDD/food production
      Develop NAMA guidance