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Technology Sample
 

Technology Sample

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Technology Sample

Technology Sample

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    Technology Sample Technology Sample Presentation Transcript

    • Technology Assessment Superfactory Excellence Program™ www.superfactory.com
    • Outline
      • Management of Technology
      • Sociotechnical Change
      • Technology Planning
      • Technology Forecasting
      • Managing Forecasting
      • Methods and Issues
      • Lifecycles
      • Monitoring
      • Tools for Trending
      • Extrapolating Technological Trends
      • Expert Opinion
    • Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance
      • Technology assessment
        • originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of technology on the environment and society.
        • now much more encompassing
      • Technology forecasting
        • assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting.
    • Product Life Cycle Commercial launch Years from Launch Innovation Growth Maturity Decline Profit Sales Volume Maximum Profit Maximum Sales Volume Withdrawn from market Sales Revenue (x1,000,000) Profit Revenue (x100,000) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
    • Impact/Technology Assessment
      • It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976)
      • It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibility
      • It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planning
    • Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship
      • Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management process
        • Predicts possible technological changes that might affect corporate goals
        • Provides useful information to decision makers
      • The shape and format of forecasting are determined by
        • Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of units…)
        • Audience goals
    • Stages of Technological Innovation
      • Stage 3: Verification
        • laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the proposed theory or design concept
      • Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration
        • first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form
      • Stage 5: Field Trial
        • full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the prototype or pilot-plant
    • Competitive Technology Lifecycle Critical Dimension Time Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships Traditional technology Emergent technology
    • Fisher-Pry Model
      • Substitution model
      • Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point
      • y(t) = 1/(1 + e -b(t-a) )
        • y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time t
        • a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total market
        • b = rate of adoption
    • Technological Description/Foresight
      • Technology description is a subset of technology foresight
      • Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offer
      • Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton
    • Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique
      • Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to
      • capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985):
      • Logistics: resources largely determine the method
      • Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is desirable
      • Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, resources, and time