Census Planning And Budgeting

Census planning and budgeting Paolo Valente (UNECE) UNECE Training Workshop on Census Questionnaire Design for SPECA member countries (Dushanbe, 12-16 March 2007)

Content of presentation:
1. The importance of census planning
2. Establishing a work plan
3. Setting up a financial outline
4. Preparation of the budget
5. Monitoring census operations
6. Controlling expenditures

NOTICE:
At the Baku Workshop, census planning and budgeting was covered as part of the presentation on “Overall census management”
This presentation moves from the basic concepts presented in Baku and expands the discussion on census planning and budgeting
Topics already covered in Baku are not repeated in detail here. Participants who were not in Baku may consult the presentation on “Overall census management” (pres. 1) on the UNECE website: http://www.unece.org/stats/documents/2006.10.census.htm

Census planning is the process linking the different phases of the census cycle :
Preparation
Field operations
Processing
Dissemination
Evaluation
1. The importance of census planning 1.1 What is census planning

The census cycle:
1. The importance of census planning
Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a preceding phase
 The quality of the output from each phase has a direct effect on the success of the next phase

The aim of the census planning process is to ensure that:
1. Each phase is properly resourced and organized
2. The output of each phase is of sufficient quality for all subsequent phases
3. All dependencies between the different phases are identified
1. The importance of census planning 1.2 Aim of the census planning process

Census planning is the most critical process to the completion of a successful census
Why?
 Inadequate planning may lead to underestimating time and resources (financial, human, technical) required for the different census phases
 Inadequate planning may result in serious problems in census operations that could not be solved at a later stage, and could ultimately affect the quality of census output
1. The importance of census planning 1.3 Why census planning is important

IMPORTANT:
 Time is an essential dimension for good census planning: Census planning should start AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE before the census!
 Census planning should not remain static but be FLEXIBLE to take into account changes that may occur during the census cycle
2. Establishing a work plan 2.1 Characteristics of the work plan

Issues to be considered when planning a census:
(a) Specifying the role of the census as part of the larger National Statistical Programme
(b) Clarifying the role of Government :
Providing a legal framework for the census
Providing funding for the census
Providing logistical support for the census
(c) Setting census goals :
Identify stakeholders and their requirements
State priorities
2. Establishing a work plan 2.2 Important issues to be considered These issues were discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres. 1 on “Overall census management” on UNECE website)

The census is a BIG project, which include a number of projects dependent on one another.
 Need to develop a work plan with a hierarchical structure:
Projects (ex.: Field operations)
Phases (ex.: Field mapping)
Activities (ex.: Enumeration area design)
Tasks (ex.: Prepare enumeration area design manual)
The work plan should also include:
Milestones: Specific points in time at which key outcomes are expected (to measure project’s progress)
2. Establishing a work plan 2.3 Developing the work plan

Given the great number of specific activities, it is practical to break down the general work plan into more detailed work plans for the different projects and phases of the census. Example:
field operations work plan
data processing work plan
training work plan
 It is of crucial importance to ensure the necessary consistency of these work plans

 In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries (2/3 of reporting countries) used management software :
- 18 countries used commercial software
- 11 countries developed software in-house
Source: UNECE Survey, 2004
See details in table 3.1 of UNECE Publication on 2000 Round of Censuses
2. Establishing a work plan 2.3 Developing the work plan  Project management software can be effectively used to develop good and consistent work plans  Software can be commercial or developed in-house

To develop the work plan, all components (projects, phases, activities, tasks) must be identified at each level, and the relative timetable defined
A top–down approach is recommended, moving from broad components down to more detailed activities and tasks
Often several iterations may be needed to improve work plan
As long as framework develops:
1. people can be assigned responsibilities , and
2. reporting and review arrangements can be established
Need for coordination and communication among activities

2. Establishing a work plan 2.3 Developing the work plan See Annex II of “ Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses ” on UNSD website ( http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/ ): “ Example of a model census project timetable” Example of detailed work plan (by Australia), with list of activities and relative timetable:

2. Establishing a work plan 2.3 Developing the work plan Extract from Annex II “Example of a model census project timetable”:

Useful tool for planning and monitoring: the Gantt chart
2. Establishing a work plan 2.4 The Gantt chart

2. Establishing a work plan 2.4 The Gantt chart
Time frame in weeks, months or quarters
Activities
Visual representation of relations between activities

How to assess the duration of each activity?
 Use realistic information from previous census or other similar operation
 The pilot census can provide good estimates, but only if carried out under conditions closely resembling the actual census
2. Establishing a work plan 2.5 Assessing the duration of various activities

Pay particular attention to activities that require decisions to be taken at a very early stage
Example: Purchasing computers or other technical equipment may require relatively long time (issue call for tenders, selection, production, delivery)
 The scheduling of the work plan should allow for ample time for all materials to arrive at their respective destinations before they are actually needed

Local conditions and transportation facilities should be always taken into account
Example: Questionnaires and other materials could get wet and spoiled in certain conditions, in particular during winter and rainy seasons.
 Take necessary measures to minimise the risk that printed material is exposed to the danger of getting wet and spoiled during transport and storage. Printing should not be completed too long before the material is required.

As part of the work plan, the amount of work in physical terms should be assessed for each activity
Example for field enumeration: the amount of work can be measured by the number of households to be enumerated and the average time needed to enumerate an household
 This information is required for estimating the number of enumerators required in order to accomplish the operation within the time scheduled in the work plan
The assessment of the number of field staff (enumerators, supervisors, managers) was discussed in detail at Baku workshop (see pres. 7 on “Staff recruitment” on UNECE website)
2. Establishing a work plan 2.6 Assessing the amount of work

Example for data entry: the amount of work can be measured in terms of the number of questionnaires to be entered (or scanned)
 This information is required for estimating the number of data entry machines (or scanners ) and operators required
2. Establishing a work plan 2.6 Assessing the amount of work See Annex V of “Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website ( http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/ ): “ Time and equipment estimations for manual census data entry and scanner census data entry”

Information on the expected amount of work in physical terms for each activity is also needed for monitoring the rate of accomplishment of specific activities, so that timely action can be taken in case delays are detected
2. Establishing a work plan 2.6 Assessing the amount of work

 Work plans should also deal with risk management
Which risks?  All possible events that could occur and have a negative impact on the success of the census
Risks with significant likelihood should be managed explicitly by developing fully detailed plans parallel to the census plan
Risk management is essential because of the importance of the census and the fact that it is an infrequent exercise
 The success or failure of the census may depend on the implementation of the plans associated with these risks if they occur
2. Establishing a work plan 2.7 Risk management

From the work plan a financial outline can be drawn up by assigning costs to specific activities
3. Setting up a financial outline 3.1 Assigning costs to activities

Two kinds of costs should be distinguished:
i. Those for which the total cost derives directly from the product of a unit cost and a physical quantity Example: If N computers are required for data entry at US$ X each, the total cost would be: (US$ X) * N
ii. Those for which the cost is either a flat rate or a non-linear function of the quantity Example of flat rate: The honorarium of an expert Example of non-linear function: printing costs, with fixed cost + variable costs where unit costs may decrease with quantity
3. Setting up a financial outline 3.2 Different kinds of costs

The assessments of costs (flat rate, linear on non-linear function) should be based on realistic price estimates obtained from previous experiences (previous census, pilot census) or by experts or providers of goods and services
Example: estimates from printers for printing costs
3. Setting up a financial outline 3.3 Estimating the costs

If expenditures for previous census are used as a base, they should be corrected for:
- Increased costs (ex.: salary increases, inflation)
- Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex.: new technology)
- Policy changes
- Population increase
Very important to estimate salary costs (largest component)
3. Setting up a financial outline 3.3 Estimating the costs For estimating staff costs for enumeration and data processing, see Ch.III sec.B and Ch.IV sec.C of “Handbook on Census Management for Population and Housing Censuses” on UNSD website ( http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs/ )

The budget can be set up directly from the financial outline by aggregating costs of specific activities according to the financial time schedule
The budget normally should be prepared in accordance with the regulations of the government, and the standard set forth by the authorities empowered to approve and appropriate the funds
4. Preparation of the budget 4.1 From the financial outline to the budget

IMPORTANT : The census budget MUST:
1) Be prepared well in advance
2) Cover ALL known activities
3) Allocate sufficient resources to each phase
 Funds allocated and used effectively on planning and preparation will result in savings in all other phases, namely in enumeration and processing operations
4. Preparation of the budget 4.2 General issues on the census budget

REMEMBER to allocate sufficient resources to the dissemination phase
 The users will judge the census on the ability to deliver the data on time and in the way desired

4. Preparation of the budget 4.2 General issues on the census budget  In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent on average only 5% of their census budget for publication, dissemination and documentation  23 countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less than 3%! Source: UNECE Survey, 2004  Detailed information on census costs in the 2000 census round is available in the UNECE Publication on the 2000 Round of Censuses (Part I, Ch. 4)

Other issues to consider:
The census budget is highly cyclical (peaks during enumeration and processing)
The census budget should have built in some contingency allowance for unexpected expenses

The census budget should be detailed enough to permit easy examination and/or review and subsequent approval by officials concerned
The census budget is generally less detailed than the financial outline
 Example: all salaries and wages could be regrouped by year even if the staff requirements of the census vary largely over the census cycle
4. Preparation of the budget 4.3 Level of detail

In large countries with socio-economic conditions varying from province to province, for some items a budget could be prepared for each province separately. They could be then pooled together to arrive at a country budget
Example: If transport and communication facilities may not exist uniformly in all the provinces, separate estimates of travel and transport costs could be made for individual provinces
4. Preparation of the budget 4.3 Level of detail

Developing a good census work plan is important, but not sufficient!
 The work plan must be MONITORED closely and on a regular basis , and feedback be delivered to all levels of management
5. Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan

The review should be conducted at least each quarter , but in the crucial period (field work) a continuous day-to-day review is recommended
Most important components to monitor are:
Time for completing a task
Resource usage per task
Cost per task
Milestones
Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan

 All deviations from planned schedule, costs and resources should be analysed and the impact assessed
 Any delay occurring along any line of activity could have a chain reaction in the subsequent activity of the programme, affecting both work plan and budget
Monitoring census operations 5.1 Monitoring the work plan

Ideally, the work plan should remain unchanged
However…
… in some cases it may be necessary to make changes to the plan and timetable
Example: If it is estimated that a key task leading to a milestones cannot be completed in the planned time, then the task must be extended and the work plan modified
Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the work plan

Whenever the work plan is modified:
 All possible implications of the changes on the other components of the work plan and on the budget should be carefully considered
 All key personnel potentially affected by the changes should be promptly informed
Monitoring census operations 5.2 Modifying the work plan

Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
 This would allow to identify on time possible over-expenditures and shortfalls , and take appropriate measures
Two levels of monitoring:
1) Every month (or at least every quarter): monitor expenditures against funding for each project
2) Every year: Monitor total yearly expenditures against the estimates of expenditures for all years of the census cycle prepared in advance
6. Controlling expenditures 6.1 Monitoring the census budget

Given the large amount of expenditure involved in a census, some control procedures have to be introduced to ensure the efficient use of funds
Often a system of expenditure control procedures is designed and put in place by the funding agency
It is important to prepare complete and clear guidelines on financial policies and procedures
6. Controlling expenditures 6.2 Expenditure control procedures

For a census office which usually operates through its field personnel at various administrative levels, an efficient cost and control system should be set up to ensure an easy control of the flows of funds from the central office to the field offices
6. Controlling expenditures 6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices

Example:
The central office issues fund allotments for a census administrative area, such as a provincial office
The province then sub-allots amounts to the different areas under its supervision for their operational expenses, broken down as required (for instance: salaries and wages, travelling expenses, supplies and materials, etc.)
 Field staff should be able to draw an amount, depending on the needs of the office, for the quarter but not beyond the cash ceiling allowance for that particular item of operating expenses
6. Controlling expenditures 6.3 Control of flows of funds to field offices

 The budget staff of the central office should keep a regular account of fund disbursements , reflecting all types of expenditure incurred
 The account should also show on a current basis the amount spent for a project together with the unspent balance
 It is useful to adopt of a coding system whereby every type of expenditure is identified with a code number
6. Controlling expenditures 6.4 Keeping account of expenditures

A prerequisite for establishing expenditure control is the availability of information on expenditure incurred and the corresponding output of work
Progress reports should be prepared at regular intervals (for instance: once a month)
Progress reports should be compatible with the form in which both the work plan and the financial outline have been prepared
6. Controlling expenditures 6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output

Progress reports should include information on:
1) Expenditure incurred
2) Corresponding output achieved
… and if possible also on:
3) Outputs expected to be achieved in the subsequent month
4) Outputs expected to be achieved in the current year as a whole
6. Controlling expenditures 6.5 Progress reports on expenditure and output

Census Planning And Budgeting

by ahmad bassiouny

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