Assessing Global Patterns of Regime Shifts Juan-Carlos Rocha - PhD student (2010-2015)
The problemDoes Johan need a new chair?? - NOUPFrequency and intensity of regime shifts arelikely to increase in the anthropocene &many ES’s may be substantially affected. What are the main drivers globally? What can we do to manage them and avoid undesirable regime shifts? What are the possible cascading or synergistic effects? Where are they likely to happen? Vulnerable areas? Rockström et al., 2009
Yeah, sure... but how? By getting an ofﬁce or ﬁgures more colorful than Johan’s?? - NOUP Juan uses recent developments of network science and apply them to toy models of regime shifts. He plans to map vulnerability of regime shifts to climate change and apply data mining techniques to anticipate potential impacts on ecosystem services. Network of causal loop diagrams for 19 regime shifts in polar, terrestrial and marine ecosystems
What are the main drivers of Regime Shifts? Fishing Urbanization Nutrients inputs DemandProportion of Drivers sharing causality to Regime Shifts (n=55) Global warming Deforestation 1.0 Human population Global warming Agriculture Demand Atmospheric CO2 0.8 Agriculture Deforestation Human population Nutrients inputs Droughts Fishing Urbanization Droughts 0.6 Atmospheric CO2 Food production & climate change are 0.4 the most important drivers or regime shifts globally 0.2 Only 11 out of our 55 drivers cause 25-60% of the 20 regime shifts we 0.0 analyzed in marine, terrestrial and polar 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ecosystems . These 11 drivers interact Proportion of Regime Shifts (n=20) with 50-85% of other drivers when causing regime shifts.
How the drivers tend to interact? Tundra to Forest Marine regime shifts tend to Thermohaline circulation share signiﬁcantly more drivers Fisheries collapse and tend to have similarGreenland Marine foodwebs feedback mechanisms, Salt marshes Monsoon weakening suggesting they can synchronize in space and time. By managing Dry land degradation Encroachment key drivers several regime shiftsCoral transitions can be avoided in aquatic Kelps transitions Eutrophication Floating plants systems. Forest to savannas Peatlands Bivalves collapse Terrestrial regime shifts share less drivers. Higher diversity of Hypoxia drivers makes management Soil structure more context dependent. Soil salinization River channel change
What does it mean for management? Drivers by Management Type Tundra to Forest River channel change Local Avoiding regime shifts calls for NationalThermohaline circulation International poli-centric institutions. Greenland Marine foodwebs Peatlands Monsoon weakening Half of the drivers of 75% of Kelps transitions the regime shifts require Dry land degradation Forest to savannas international cooperation to Soil structure manage them. Soil salinization Salt marshes Encroachment Given the high diversity of Hypoxia Coral transitions drivers, focusing on well Fisheries collapse studied variables (e.g. Eutrophication Bivalves collapse nutrients inputs) wont preclude Floating plants regime shifts from happening. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Proportion of RS Drivers
Parallel projects & collaboration1. Text mining to infer potential ecosystem services affected by regime shifts (with Robin Wikström - Abo University)2. Networks of Drivers and Ecosystem Services consequences of Marine Regime Shifts (with Peterson, Biggs, Blenckner & Yletyinen)3. Experimental economics in Colombia: how people respond to abrupt ecosystem change? (with Schill, Crepin & Lindahl)4. Resource - trade networks: Can we detect cascading effects among regime shifts by tracing trade signals?5. Holling’s logic in reverse: Can networks infer resilience surrogates in SES?
Thanks!!Welcome to join Juan’s licentiate defense: June 3rd 2013 Questions? firstname.lastname@example.org Research blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com News and papers on regime shifts: @juanrocha