The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways
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The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways

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We present an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions among global change drivers of regime shifts, based on information collated in the Regime Shifts Database*. We reviewed the documented ...

We present an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions among global change drivers of regime shifts, based on information collated in the Regime Shifts Database*. We reviewed the documented evidence of over 20 policy-relevant regime shifts in ecosystems. Information on the dynamics of each regime shift was synthesized using causal-loop diagrams, a generic structure map of the system. We then identified the main drivers of change, the key impacts on ecosystem services, as well as possible cross-scale interactions among regime shifts drivers using network analysis.

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    The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways Presentation Transcript

    • The domino effect: A network analysis of regime shifts drivers and causal pathways Juan Carlos Rocha, R. Oonsie Biggs & Garry Peterson Stockholm Resilience CenterTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Interaction of regime shifts drivers? Anthropocene and the likelihood of regime shifts 1. What is more important? What we should be worry about? 2. What are the possible connections among RS? 3. What are the impacts of climate change in RS? 4. Where are they more likely to happen? Rockström et al., 2009Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Regime shifts that matter to people Regime shift: Large, abrupt, persistent change in the structure and function of a system. Policy relevant = Substantial change in Ecosystem ServicesTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Global change drivers “...any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem. A direct driver unequivocally influences ecosystem processes. An indirect driver operates more diffusely, by altering one or more direct drivers” (MEA 2005) Our drivers are the result of literature review for each regime shift.Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Drivers The objective of this paper is to perform an exploratory analysis of the causal interactions Q2 Q1 among global change drivers of regime shifts. Regime shifts D1 Q3 1. What are the major global Cascading effects change drivers of regime RS1 RS2 RS3 shifts? RS1 2. What are the impacts of regime shifts on global change drivers? D1 D2 D3 3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime RS1 D1 ... RS2 shifts and its drivers?Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Regime shift databaseTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Regime shift databaseTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Regime shift database Description of the alternative regimes and reinforcing feedbacks The drivers that precipitate the regime shift Impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being Management options www.regimeshifts.orgTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Causal-loop diagrams is a N Policy relevant Regime Shifts Mechanism Reversibility technique to map out the 1 Bivalves collapse Established H feedback structure of a system 2 Coral transitions Established H (Sterman 2000) 3 Coral bleaching Established H 4 Desertification Contested H, I 5 Encroachment Established H 6 Eutrophication Established H, I, R 7 Fisheries collapse Contested U 8 Marine foodwebs collapse Contested U 9 Forest - Savanna Established I 10 Hypoxia Established H, R 11 Kelp transitions Established H, R 12 Soil salinization Established H, I 13 Steppe - Tundra Established I 14 Tundra - Forest Established I 15 Monsoon circulation Established I 16 Thermohaline circulation collapse Established I 17 Greenland ice sheet collapse Established I 18 Arctic salt marshes Established I 19 Arctic ice collapse Established I Reversibility: H = Hysteretic; I = Irreversible; R= Reversible; U = Unknown Current data: 19 Regime Shifts descriptions + CLD.Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Methods: Network Analysis Centrality Definition Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010) Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Degree centrality indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRankTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Methods: Network Analysis Centrality Definition Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010) Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Betweenness centrality indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRankTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Methods: Network Analysis Centrality Definition Degree The number edges a vertex is connected to (Newman 2010): In-degree and Out-degree Betweenness The extent to which a vertex lies on paths between other vertices (Newman 2010) Eigenvector A vertex is important if it is directly or Eigenvector centrality indirectly connected to other vertices that are in turn important (Allesina and Pascual 2009), like Google PageRankTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • D1 1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3 Top drivers Drivers per Regime Shift Global warming Coral Transitions Lake Euthrophication Demand Fisheries Collapse Human population Hypoxia Bivalves Collapse Agriculture Coral Bleaching Deforestation Kelps Transitions Soil Salinization Erosion Bush Encroachment Forest − Savanna Urban growth Desertification Fishing Monsoon Marine Foodwebs Turbidity Greenland Ice−sheet Collapse Thermohaline Circulation Nutrients input Steppe − Tundra Floods Tundra − Forest Arctic Salt−Marshes Atmospheric CO2 Arctic Ice−Sheet Collapse 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 5 10 15 20Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • D1 1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3 80 60 Numbervertex vertex Number vertexvertex 50 60 40 of Number of of Number of 40 30 20 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 14 15 17 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 19 22 Outgoing links Outdegree Incoming links Indegree Few nodes have a lot of links!Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • D1 1. What are the major global change drivers of regime shifts? RS1 RS2 RS3 Local centrality Global centrality 0.06 Albedo 0.05 Global warming 10 Global warming Agriculture Space SST Precipitation Nutrients input 0.04 Dissolved oxygen Mid−predators Fishing Floods Fire frequency SST BetweennessOutdegree Woody plants dominance Erosion Deforestation Bivalves abundance Algae 0.03 Cropland−Grassland area Grass dominance Nutrients input Top Irrigation Zooplankton Albedo 5 predators Forest Herbivores Space Macrophytes Soil moisture ENSO−like events frequency Phytoplankton Droughts Planktivore fish Turbidity Atmospheric CO2 Demand Greenhouse gases growth Urban Rainfall variability Herbivores Shrubs Precipitation Greenlandsea ice volume Arctic ice sheet volume Phytoplankton 0.02 Soil temperature Human population Land−OceanVegetation Steppe Open water Tundra Open water MeltwaterAtmosphericNativealgae Disease outbreak temperature Rainfall deficitTurf−forming algae Coral abundance Wind fetchSavanna Nekton temperature gradient Fertilizers drainageand meso−predators Lobsters Urchin vegetation Water Canopy−forming barren use temperature Biodiversity Grass dominance Fire frequency Erosion AbsorptionSewageinfrastructure Soil salinity Local Palatability water solar movements Macroalgae Consumption Unpalatability radiation availabilityabundance Open surface stressproductivity ofWater Water vapor preferences Warm Grazing Wind SoilUpwellings Sediments water inflow density Water Water storm Plankton Shrubs Flushing EvaporationArctic sea Evapotranspiration UrbanStratificationdemand ice volume algae sheet volume Landscape water runoff filamentous ice Meltwater runoff and Greenland fragmentation/conversion Water Noxious gases Atmospheric temperature Agriculture Woody plants dominance Absorption of solar radiation Fishing Latent maturity Tree incentivesDust Habitat structural complexity Ocean fuelLandConvection gradient Ground water table Illegal anthropogenic wave storage IceNoxious Carbon uptake PerverseIce−oceanheatRoughness industryheat inCO2 Sea tidesMortalitysoils lubrication Exposed rate Aquifers exchange Fossil ofWaterMoistureOrganic matter cycling LoggingSulfide runoffreleaseNutrient Permafrost Basal CO2Brown gases Shadow_rooting River logging thinvelocity sliding clouds Hurricanesemissions Fish LowLand−Oceancompetitors action Other Biomass Glacierfrequencydegradation Impoundments pressurewinter Grazers Phosphorous in water Solar radiationVapor Technologyconversion level Productivity Liftingcommons Leakage condensation Huntingflux Aerosol burningcirculation Thermal Subsidiesundercutting concentration Pollutants tides column release exposureiceto InfrastructureMonsooninmixing contrastSurface air temperature development cooling Tragedy SoilYoungbeneathcover circulation Soil annomaliesqualitySalinitythe water column HeatSoil density impermeabilitysummer pressure the Waterinicerates WaterFecesfrontcyclonic inFreshwater Ice Temperature ImmigrationGesseZooxanthellae Ranching Ice consumption Daily Cropland Overturning Glacierrelativespecies calving Advection Openings vegetation Woodydeposition TradeSnowingaeration Water surface Open density Vegetation surface drifting drainagecontrast CHL /retreat StressThermalice Nutrient availability Ocean acidification Densitystructure Microbialextraction Carbon activity SeaInvasive level low Land−Ocean temperature gradient 0.01 Soil productivity Stratification Dissolved oxygen Coral abundance Surface air temperatureProductivity Demand Bivalves abundance 0 Atmospheric CO2 Meltwater fetch drainage Snowing drifting Wind Soil temperature Deforestation Irrigation Soil moisture Steppe Ocean anthropogenic CO2 frequency ENSO−like events Rainfall variability Forest Soil salinity uptake Turf−forming algae Floods sliding velocity Biodiversity BasalSalinity Savanna outbreak IceMacroalgae Rainfall deficit Overturning abundance lubrication Disease Advection Evapotranspiration Water vapor Aerosol concentration IceGlacierLandWater temperature Freshwater stress algae Brown Wind YoungSolarincirculation cyclonicradiation Canopy−forming clouds undercutting Openings in ice cover Heat thin icedegradation Flushing in winter Upwellings Turbidity Algae Zooplankton Mid−predators Meltwater runoffDroughts conversion Cropland−Grassland area Permafrost summerstorage flux Carbon Evaporation Stress beneath ice availability WaterVapor extraction Ice calving Water Ice front Carbon gases rates infrastructure Greenhouse retreat Top predators Macrophytes Thermalconsumptionbarren matter drainageUrchin Soil CHLPalatability vegetation Grazers Native Nutrient/exchange and River low cycling pressure Nekton 0.00 aeration runoff maturity Land−Ocean condensation level meso−predators pressure gradient Woodyavailability vegetation MicrobialTreecirculation activity SeaCroplandLobsters Temperature Monsooninflow Water demand Ice−oceanwater Leakage Nutrientwater table Shadow_rooting Habitatimpermeability Water mixing water Lifting Aquifers Organic in Plankton CO2RoughnessPhosphorous Gesse Tundra structure WaterLandscape fragmentation/conversion GroundheatWater complexity contrast emissions Warmsurface levelcolumn column Unpalatability Moisture Soil quality Density contrastcoolingaction density incentives and filamentous algae Planktivore fish Zooxanthellae DailyExposed soils Humanofwatergrowth FecesBiomass Grazing Urban GlacierLatentstructuralindustrySewagecommons exposureannomalieswaterTechnology preferences Lowtides the Tragedy population Other in OceanLoggingrate SulfideSediments deposition Dustto wave Convectionspecies Thermal acidificationstorm Trade Mortality Pollutants Fish FossilRanchingUrban Perversethe use Infrastructurelogging Consumption Soil relative releaseLocal Fertilizers runoff Sea Illegal frequency release Hunting Immigration fuel tides heatburning Invasivecompetitors water movements Impoundments Hurricanesdevelopment Subsidies 0 5 10 15 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 Indegree EigenvectorTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • D1 Marine Regime Shifts RS1 RS2 RS3 Local centrality Global centrality 0.12 0.10 Nutrients input 10 Phytoplankton Nutrients input Fishing 0.08 Dissolved oxygenMid−predators Noxious gases Global warming Betweenness Algae Bivalves abundanceOutdegree Agriculture Bivalves abundance 0.06 Floods Zooplankton 5 Top predators Space GlobalUrban Macrophytes Phytoplankton Planktivore fish warminggrowth Dissolved oxygen Turbidity SST Erosion SST ENSO−like Water temperature events frequency Canopy−forming algae algae Turf−forming Biodiversity Fishing 0.04 Greenhouse gasesand meso−predators Disease outbreak Urchin barren Lobsters Nekton Coral abundance Unpalatability AtmosphericDemand Water vapor CO2 Plankton and Macroalgae abundance Human population Upwellings ConsumptionFertilizers use runoff filamentous algae Precipitation Flushing Coral abundance Urban Sewage Deforestation Sediments preferences Localstorm water Herbivores Landscape fragmentation/conversion water movements Disease outbreak Tragedy of thecolumn acidification Impoundments densityLeakage Water frequency OceanIrrigation contrast Thermal annomalies species Invasive Droughts Perverse incentives mixing TechnologyWater Zooxanthellae Low tides commons Sulfide stress Wind release Stratification relative cooling structural complexity Mortality rate Habitat Density Thermal Fishmatter Daily competitors SubsidiesPollutants low pressurecolumn Hurricanescontrast in the water Noxious gases Trade Other Organic Phosphorous in water Water vapor 0.02 Biodiversity Zooplankton Nekton Space Upwellings 0 Mid−predators Turbidity Algae Water temperature Greenhouse gases Floods Thermal low pressureErosion Macrophytes Turf−forming algae Macroalgae abundance Flushing Lobsters and meso−predatorsTop predators Wind stress Water column density contrast Urchin barren Herbivores Canopy−forming algae Habitat structural complexity Phosphorous in growth Urban Density contrast inOrganic matter and filamentous algae Leakage Plankton 0.00 Zooxanthellae mixing water ENSO−like events water column Mortality the Unpalatability frequency Droughts OceanHumanPerverseDemand rate Agriculture Planktivore fish AtmosphericWater Technology preferences Landscape coolingwater incentives fragmentation/conversion acidification theuse Other competitors Sediments DailyInvasiveLocalSewage runoff Low PollutantsFish Subsidies population HurricanesCO2 release Consumption relativePrecipitationTrade Deforestation movements Thermal annomalies of water tidesUrban Stratificationcommons storm Fertilizers Irrigation frequency Tragedy Impoundments species Sulfide 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0 5 10 15 Eigenvector IndegreeTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • D1 Terrestrial Regime Shifts RS1 RS2 RS3 Local centrality Global centrality 0.08 8 Fire frequency Precipitation 0.06 Global warming Precipitation Agriculture Woody plants dominance 6 Fire frequency Forest Grass dominance Deforestation Cropland−Grassland area Deforestation BetweennessOutdegree Agriculture Irrigation Albedo 0.04 Albedo Grass dominance 4 Irrigation Rainfall variability Soil productivity Forest Droughts DemandLand−Ocean temperature Rainfall deficit Savanna Native vegetation gradient Woody plants dominance Demand Productivity Land−Ocean temperature gradient Atmospheric temperature Erosion Savanna SST Atmospheric temperature Floodsdemand Grazing Water infrastructure Evapotranspiration Water Erosion Vegetation Space Water availability 2 Atmospheric CO2 0.02 Human population Palatability Soil moisture productivity Soil Vegetation Water infrastructure Water availability Advection Carbon storage Global warming Soil impermeability Solar radiation Infrastructure developmentstress WindTree release maturity Aquifers LatentSoil quality heatevents Monsoon circulation ENSO−likeDust frequency Vapor Soil salinity Soil salinity Biomass Logging industryShadow_rooting level ImmigrationWater consumption Land−Ocean pressure gradient concentration Productivity Aerosol concentration Soil moisture Rainfall deficit use Moisture Carbon storage Lifting Ranching condensation Advection FertilizersAbsorption of solar radiation Aerosol Brown radiation Solar clouds Illegal logging Sea tides Brown clouds Roughness Temperature Land conversion Ground water table Grazers Absorption of solar radiation Aquifers Evapotranspiration variability Land conversion Rainfall Cropland−Grassland area Vapor Droughts Native vegetation Ground Waterstress frequencyGrazers ENSO−like events SSTMonsoon Land−Ocean water table pressure gradient circulation Wind demand WaterTemperature Shadow_rooting Dust LiftingRoughnessTree maturity Soil quality consumptioncondensation level PalatabilityMoisture 0 0.00 RanchingFloods Grazing Space Soil impermeabilityBiomass population Human Latent heat Logginglogging Atmospheric CO2 Fertilizers Illegal development Immigration Sea tides releaseindustry Infrastructure use 0 2 4 6 8 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 Indegree EigenvectorTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • RS1 2. What are the impacts of regime shifts on global change drivers? D1 D2 D3 How many drivers are actually reinforced How many regime shifts reinforce this driver? by regime shifts dynamics? Fire frequency Desertification Fishing Soil Salinization Global warming Marine Foodwebs Turbidity Forest − Savanna Atmospheric CO2 Monsoon Disease outbreaks Bivalves Collapse Erosion Hypoxia Irrigation Nutrients input Greenland Ice−sheet Collapse Water demand Coral Bleaching Agriculture Coral Transitions Deforestation Bush Encroachment Demand Lake Euthrophication Droughts Fisheries Collapse ENSO−like events frequency Tundra − Forest Grazing Thermohaline Circulation Invasive species Arctic Salt−Marshes Land conversion Stratification Arctic Ice−sheet Collapse Upwellings Kelps Transitions Water infrastructure Steppe − Tundra 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Monsoon Soil salinization Desertification Forest to savanna Steppe to Tundra Encroachment Arctic salt marsh Tundra to Forest Foodwebs Hypoxia Coral bleaching Bivalves collapse Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Arctic Icesheet collapse Coral transitions Kelp transitions Greenland icesheet collapse Thermohaline 3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? Reported by RSDBTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • 3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 D1 ... RS2 Up to 68 new inconvenient feedbacks when coupling Bivalves.collapse regime shifts pairs (e.g. Marine Kelps foodwebs collapse & Kelps Coral.Bleaching transitions) Most feedbacks are dominated Hypoxia Coral.Transitions by changes on biodiversity dynamics. Paths with shared drivers but Marine.foodwebs Lake.Eutrophication non-forming feedback are not Fisheries.collapse included.Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • 3. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? RS1 D1 ... RS2 Up to 159 new feedbacks, e.g. Desertification when coupling desertification and bush encroachment. Bush.Encroachment Monsoon Most feedbacks include climate - vegetation interactions. Scaling up and down dynamics characterize the couplings. Soil.Salinization Forest...SavannaTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Summary 1. What are the major Terrestrial: global change drivers Marine: - Fire frequency of regime shifts? - Nutrient inputs - Deforestation - Fishing - Agriculture 2. What are the impacts Drivers more reinforced: of regime shifts on - Fire frequency - Turbidity global change drivers? - Fishing - Global warming 3. What are the possible Inconvenient feedbacks Inconvenient feedbacks cascading effects of dominated by change in dominated by scaling regime shifts and its 4.drivers? biodiversity up/down dynamicsTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Interaction of regime shifts drivers? Regime shifts are tightly connected. The management of immediate causes or well studied variables might not be enough to avoid such catastrophes. Agricultural processes and global warming are the main causes of regime shifts. Network analysis might be a useful approach to address causality relationshipsTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Thanks! Drs. Oonsie Biggs & Garry Peterson for their supervision RSDB folks for inspiring discussion and writing examples SRC for an inspiring research space and funding! Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.se Twitter: @juanrocha Blog: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ What is a regime shift? Science pub May 2009 - SRCTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? 6.5 · 106 possible paths Longest path 6 degrees Average distance 2.37 Sample: 400 shortest pathwaysTuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? Domino effect 6.5 · 106 possible paths Coral transitions Longest path 6 degrees Coral bleaching Average distance 2.37 Tundra to forest Sample: 400 shortest pathways Kelp transitions Hypoxia Steppe to tundra Fisheries collapse Bivalves collapse Lake eutrophication Bush encroachment Soil salinization 0 20 40 60 80 Strong Weak Fake - Agriculture related drivers - Demographic & economic - Spatial mismatch of drivers - Physical processes: climate drivers and ecosystem processes change - Spatial adjacency is required (fragmentation)Tuesday, March 15, 2011
    • Q4. What are the possible cascading effects of regime shifts and its drivers? Exacerbation of feedback loops Neighborhood effect Diffuse connections Cascading-down interactions Cascading-up interactionsTuesday, March 15, 2011