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Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecological systems
 

Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecological systems

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Here I describe my previous work analyzing lobster fishery in the Caribbean as a social-ecological systems. Main findings show that dynamic failures lead the system to undesirable states: less and ...

Here I describe my previous work analyzing lobster fishery in the Caribbean as a social-ecological systems. Main findings show that dynamic failures lead the system to undesirable states: less and shorter lobsters, less profits and less fishermen. These failures typically fall within subsystems interactions: e.g. losses of lobster reproductive potential, perception of non-resource exhaustion, a poverty trap of fishing effort, and a socially based reinforcing feedback for legitimate norms breaking.

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    Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecological systems Misperception of feedbacks: another source of vulnerability in social-ecological systems Presentation Transcript

    • Misperception of Feedbacks: Another Source of Vulnerability in Social-Ecological Systems Juan Carlos Rocha PhD student Stockholm Resilience CentreSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Misperception of feedbacks “the tendency that decision makers often are insensitive to nonlinearities that alter the strength of feedback loops, undervalue the importance of delays, and misperceive the workings of stock and flow relationships” (Moxnes 1998; Sterman 2000)Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • Case study: Lobster fishery in Providence Island, ColombiaSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Why Providence is interesting: the logic of failure They have made number of efforts to reach sustainable fishing. Atypically uncooperative. Towards an undesirable regime where fishery is unsustainable: less and shorter lobsters, less profits and less fishermen; therefore erosion on the system’s knowledge.Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • The role of misperception of feedbacks for natural resource management 1. Are misperception of feedbacks undermining dynamic failures? 2. Are misperceptions of feedbacks triggering uncooperative behavior? 3. What can we do to tackle misperceptions?Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • Methods Data: Fishing records Socio- Interviews Economic Inequity Experimental economics - games - + Lobster Reputation B Respectability Literature review + fishery - SES Equity Cultural BiologicSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Biological sub-system • Cohort model • Reproduction type r = Each lobster mom can produce up to 600.000 eggs per period. • Confers fast recovery to disturbance - Noise and 2 yrs delay • Metapopulation dynamics matter - Spatial misperception - Conflict with “others”. Lobster population and K Metapopulation dynamicsSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Socio-Economic: Fishing Elder adults Adults • Elder adults and young lobster decrease in fishing scenarios while young and middle age adults increase • No giant lobsters Young Young adults anymore • Perception of non- resource exhaustion • Higher effort than in the No-fishing - Fishing pastSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Socio-Economic: Fishing Poverty trap of fishing effort. • Fishers manage more Birth potential money but also spend + Effort - R and fish more than + before. Lobster + population B Fishing - effectiveness B • Increase in effort and + technology use + Lobster fished + Price • Price is fixed by the + Technology usage + State (engines & petro) R Gains + + • Weaken balancing + B + Demand feedbacks - Information Operation cost - Profitability delay.Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • Socio-Economic: Fishing Lobster fished in Tons Lobster fished in Tons Lobster population Eggs produced Base line Lobster numbers or Maximum effort with noise biomass is not sensitive Maximum effort without noise enough; egg production is Twice maximum effort a good resilience surrogate. How the decisions of fishers in the experimental game can tell us how the resource will be affected under different institutional settingsSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Cultural: Institutions and rule breaking • Institutional arrangements not only The effect of institutions on the lobster population 2000000 improve cooperation Social optima & Low allowance levels. 1500000 Communication, Low monitoring and • Without rules and norms Eggs produced Focalized monitoring 1000000 the system is way too Base line close to collapse points. 500000 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 • Why are they atypically Effort in the game uncooperative? How the decisions of fishers in the experimental game can tell us how the resource will be affected under different institutional settingsSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • Cultural: Institutions and rule breaking • Crab antics: a metaphor of social order. • Conflict with “others”: role of external agents = authorities and industrial - + fishermen Reputation R Equity Respectability R - + • Legitimate rule breaking Wilson 1973 • Erosion of traditional ecological knowledge and beliefs system • The role of drug smugglingSaturday, March 12, 2011
    • 1. Are misperception of feedbacks undermining dynamic failures? Fishermen: Authorities: Scientists: Weaken balancing 2yr delay How much feedbacks and create information delays metapopulation Spatial misperception matters? Rules breaking Non resource exhaustion Lobster biomass is not institutions sensitive enough; eggs Poverty trap of fishing Erosion of TEK and belief production is a good effort system resilience surrogate.Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • 2. Are misperceptions of feedbacks triggering uncooperative behavior? Role and power of external agents Time gap between rule implementation and desired results (2 years) Industrial fishermen only fish outside the barrier reef - Metapopulation dynamics With todays technology, artisanal fishermen have the power to collapse the lobster stock.Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • 3. What can we do? Three tipping points: Perception of equality among fishermen is driving them towards social equilibria highly uncooperative. As fishermen social prestige is low, the social memory loss remains high with strong implications for innovation and adaptation. Monitoring programs based on biomass are not sensitive enough to resilience losses, inducing on one hand misperceptions by delayed information, while on the other closing the window of opportunity for preventive action.Saturday, March 12, 2011
    • Fishermen F&FCoop Thanks! INCODER Daniel Castillo Pablo Ramos Jorge Maldonado Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@stockholmresilience.su.se Juan Camilo Twitter: @juanrocha Cardenas Blog: www.criticaltrasitions.worldpress.comSaturday, March 12, 2011