Solar:Power Today<br />June 2011<br />
Residential<br />1-10 kW<br />Commercial Rooftop<br />10 kW – 1 MW<br />Utility Scale<br />1 MW–  250 MW<br />
Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years<br />17 nuclear power plants worth o...
$100<br />1976<br />$50<br />Average Price [USD 2005/W]<br />$5<br />2010<br />$1<br />$0<br />100<br />1,000<br />10,000<...
Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing<br />Projected price increase 2.5% per year<br />Projected price increase 1%...
Technology and Adoption<br />Price<br />Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory <br />US cell phone subscribers has risen <...
Solar Price Drops Mirror<br />High Tech Consumer Goods<br />Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale<br />Cell Phones<b...
Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets<br /><ul><li> 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
 Sale of Energy, not equipment
 Never an Increase in your Utility Bill
 >100,000 solar power systems already installed</li></li></ul><li>Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear<br />$0.139<br ...
Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear<br />$0.139<br />$0.129<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.095<br />$0.07<br />...
Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today<br />$0.238<br />$0.226<br />$0.139<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.086<br /...
Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today<br />$0.238<br />$0.226<br />$0.139<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.086<br /...
New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive<br />$0.139<br />$0.109<br />$0.08<br />Cents p...
New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive<br />$0.139<br />$0.109<br />$0.08<br />Cents p...
Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand<br />Peak Summer Load<br />28<br />26<br />24<br />22<br />20<br />18<br />Tracking...
Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World<br />Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010<br />...
U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing<br />US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation<br />DOE,...
California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years<br />2009 Utility RFO submittals:  30 GW2011 Utility RFO submit...
Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />Total USA Installe...
Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />1<br />Equal to 12 
nuclear plants<br />in 4 yea...
Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels<br />Fossil Fuel and Solar <br /> [ELI, SEIA]<br />$72.4 billion<br />$...
$72 bn<br />Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase<br />: <br />Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Ene...
Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce <br />Significant Price Declines<br />$2 bn<br />Sources: Weighted Average ASP Da...
Solar Creates Jobs<br />Average Total Jobs/Megawatts<br />7x more jobs<br />than coal<br />Sources: Kammen, David M et al,...
Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources<br />Added water if gas source is Fracking<br /> or Tower (wetcooled...
Solar is Ready Now<br />Solar<br />17 GW<br />Wind<br />5 GW<br />Coal<br />6.7 GW<br />Natural Gas<br />5.5 GW<br />Solar...
US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets<br />SPAIN<br />     Enough land area to power      the whole country<br />GERMANY<...
US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth<br />2010 Global Supply/Demand  <br />Supply 17.4-GWp<br />Demand<br />Sou...
Transition to Renewables<br />To 2030<br />To 2040<br />To 2050<br /><ul><li> Flexible Generation
 Energy Storage
 Substitute Generation
 Smartgrid</li></ul>TWH/yr<br />        Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.<br />Sources:  M...
Public Support for Clean Energy<br />91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority f...
Solar<br />Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today<br />Delivers Gigawatt...
Date and other info<br />Thank You<br />
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Solar future overview

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Great overview of solar industry and path to total domination and general goodness. Thanks to Dan Shugar and Tom Dinwoody from SunPower and Solaria.

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Solar future overview

  1. 1. Solar:Power Today<br />June 2011<br />
  2. 2. Residential<br />1-10 kW<br />Commercial Rooftop<br />10 kW – 1 MW<br />Utility Scale<br />1 MW– 250 MW<br />
  3. 3. Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years<br />17 nuclear power plants worth of solar peak power shipped in 2010<br />5 nuclear plants brought online in 2010<br />Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant<br />
  4. 4. $100<br />1976<br />$50<br />Average Price [USD 2005/W]<br />$5<br />2010<br />$1<br />$0<br />100<br />1,000<br />10,000<br />Produced Silicon PV Modules (Global)<br />$60.00<br />Solar Industry Growth has Produced <br />Steadily Falling Prices<br />$1.50<br />Due to Polysilicon Shortage<br />Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011<br />Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; 2011 numbers based on current market data<br />
  5. 5. Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing<br />Projected price increase 2.5% per year<br />Projected price increase 1% per year<br />To date<br />Average Retail Price of Electricity<br />Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011<br />
  6. 6. Technology and Adoption<br />Price<br />Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory <br />US cell phone subscribers has risen <br />from 5.3 million to 285 million<br />in 15 years <br />
  7. 7. Solar Price Drops Mirror<br />High Tech Consumer Goods<br />Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale<br />Cell Phones<br />Digital Cameras<br />with plan<br />DVD Players<br />
  8. 8. Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets<br /><ul><li> 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
  9. 9. Sale of Energy, not equipment
  10. 10. Never an Increase in your Utility Bill
  11. 11. >100,000 solar power systems already installed</li></li></ul><li>Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear<br />$0.139<br />$0.129<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.095<br />$0.07<br />1 GW Plant<br />Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years. <br />Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year<br />The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.<br />Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).<br />
  12. 12. Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear<br />$0.139<br />$0.129<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.095<br />$0.07<br />Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids<br />1 GW Plant<br />Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years. <br />Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year<br />The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.<br />Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation. <br />
  13. 13. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today<br />$0.238<br />$0.226<br />$0.139<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.086<br />250 MW Gas CT<br />Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.<br />Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).<br />
  14. 14. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today<br />$0.238<br />$0.226<br />$0.139<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.086<br />Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids<br />250 MW Gas CT<br />Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.<br />Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.<br />
  15. 15. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive<br />$0.139<br />$0.109<br />$0.08<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.07<br />$0.07<br />Coal Plant 5%<br />500 MW<br />Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).<br />
  16. 16. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive<br />$0.139<br />$0.109<br />$0.08<br />Cents per Kilowatt Hour<br />$0.07<br />$0.07<br />Coal Plant 5%<br />500 MW<br />Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation. <br />
  17. 17. Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand<br />Peak Summer Load<br />28<br />26<br />24<br />22<br />20<br />18<br />Tracking PV at Full Power<br />Summer Time Of Use Rates<br />Retail Utility Rates, cents per kwh<br />Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation<br />
  18. 18. Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World<br />Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010<br />Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW<br />Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW<br />Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011<br />
  19. 19. U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing<br />US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation<br />DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011<br />
  20. 20. California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years<br />2009 Utility RFO submittals:  30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals:  45 GW (expected)<br />4.4 GW under contract below the cost of energy from new natural gas<br />1<br /> California could be 20% solar by 2020<br />1<br />Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California. <br />Source: Greentech Media, February 2011<br />
  21. 21. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States<br />Global Installed 26 GW<br />Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx) <br />
  22. 22. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages<br />Completed US PV Projects<br />1<br />Equal to 12 
nuclear plants<br />in 4 years<br />Over the next 4 years 12GW<br />1 Note:  Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets<br />Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx) <br />
  23. 23. Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels<br />Fossil Fuel and Solar <br /> [ELI, SEIA]<br />$72.4 billion<br />$2 billion<br /> [SEIA, Blumenauer, Treasury]<br />$40 billion<br />$7-10 billion<br />Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal  Energy  Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy  Technologies, February 24, 2011 “Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks”Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon,  www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011<br />
  24. 24. $72 bn<br />Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase<br />: <br />Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA<br />
  25. 25. Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce <br />Significant Price Declines<br />$2 bn<br />Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA<br />
  26. 26. Solar Creates Jobs<br />Average Total Jobs/Megawatts<br />7x more jobs<br />than coal<br />Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.<br />
  27. 27. Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources<br />Added water if gas source is Fracking<br /> or Tower (wetcooled)<br />Source: Adapted from DOE 2010, Table 8.3<br />
  28. 28. Solar is Ready Now<br />Solar<br />17 GW<br />Wind<br />5 GW<br />Coal<br />6.7 GW<br />Natural Gas<br />5.5 GW<br />Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide<br />2010<br />All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US<br />2010<br />Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural Gas includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT as 1.5 GW.)<br />
  29. 29. US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets<br />SPAIN<br /> Enough land area to power the whole country<br />GERMANY<br />Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy<br />
  30. 30. US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth<br />2010 Global Supply/Demand  <br />Supply 17.4-GWp<br />Demand<br />Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media<br />
  31. 31. Transition to Renewables<br />To 2030<br />To 2040<br />To 2050<br /><ul><li> Flexible Generation
  32. 32. Energy Storage
  33. 33. Substitute Generation
  34. 34. Smartgrid</li></ul>TWH/yr<br /> Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.<br />Sources: McKinsey Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP<br />
  35. 35. Public Support for Clean Energy<br />91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress<br />85% of Republicans<br />89% of Independents <br />97% of Democrats<br />Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change. <br />
  36. 36. Solar<br />Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today<br />Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear<br />
  37. 37. Date and other info<br />Thank You<br />
  38. 38. Date and other info<br />Appendix<br />
  39. 39. Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun<br />New York City Blackout Summer 2003<br />Economic lossesin NYC alone exceeded $1bn. <br />Losses were between$7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada <br />New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day<br />Load (GW)<br />Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV<br />Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003<br />
  40. 40. Among Global Energy Sources<br />World Energy Use<br />15 TW-yrs per year<br />23<br />15<br />Wind<br />70<br />11<br />Natural Gas<br />OTEC<br />170<br />6<br />Renewable Energy<br />(Annual Reserves)<br />Biomass<br />Petroleum<br />4<br />2<br />Hydro<br />0.5 <br />Waves<br />220<br />0.3 <br />Tides<br />Geothermal<br />Uranium<br />900<br />Total reserve<br />FINITE ENERGY<br />(TOTAL RESERVES)<br />Coal<br />© Richard Perez – Used With Permission<br />
  41. 41. Solar is by Far the Most Abundant<br />World Energy Use<br />15 TW-yrs per year<br />23<br />15<br />Wind<br />70<br />11<br />Solar<br />40,000 TW-yrs per year<br />Natural Gas<br />OTEC<br />170<br />6<br />Biomass<br />Petroleum<br />4<br />2<br />Hydro<br />220<br />0.5 <br />Waves<br />0.3 <br />Tides<br />Geothermal<br />Uranium<br />900<br />Total reserve<br />Coal<br />© Richard Perez – Used With Permission<br />
  42. 42. Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011<br />BP Deep Water Horizon Oil SpillApril 2010<br />Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarch 2011<br />Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in San Bruno, CASeptember, 2010<br />Upper Big Branch Coal Mine DisasterApril 2010<br />
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