Solar future overview
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Solar future overview

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Great overview of solar industry and path to total domination and general goodness. Thanks to Dan Shugar and Tom Dinwoody from SunPower and Solaria.

Great overview of solar industry and path to total domination and general goodness. Thanks to Dan Shugar and Tom Dinwoody from SunPower and Solaria.

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    Solar future overview Solar future overview Presentation Transcript

    • Solar:Power Today
      June 2011
    • Residential
      1-10 kW
      Commercial Rooftop
      10 kW – 1 MW
      Utility Scale
      1 MW– 250 MW
    • Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years
      17 nuclear power plants worth of solar peak power shipped in 2010
      5 nuclear plants brought online in 2010
      Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant
    • $100
      1976
      $50
      Average Price [USD 2005/W]
      $5
      2010
      $1
      $0
      100
      1,000
      10,000
      Produced Silicon PV Modules (Global)
      $60.00
      Solar Industry Growth has Produced
      Steadily Falling Prices
      $1.50
      Due to Polysilicon Shortage
      Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011
      Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; 2011 numbers based on current market data
    • Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing
      Projected price increase 2.5% per year
      Projected price increase 1% per year
      To date
      Average Retail Price of Electricity
      Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
    • Technology and Adoption
      Price
      Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory
      US cell phone subscribers has risen
      from 5.3 million to 285 million
      in 15 years
    • Solar Price Drops Mirror
      High Tech Consumer Goods
      Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale
      Cell Phones
      Digital Cameras
      with plan
      DVD Players
    • Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets
      • 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
      • Sale of Energy, not equipment
      • Never an Increase in your Utility Bill
      • >100,000 solar power systems already installed
    • Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
      $0.139
      $0.129
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.095
      $0.07
      1 GW Plant
      Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.
      Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year
      The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
      Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
    • Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
      $0.139
      $0.129
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.095
      $0.07
      Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
      1 GW Plant
      Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.
      Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year
      The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
      Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
    • Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
      $0.238
      $0.226
      $0.139
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.086
      250 MW Gas CT
      Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
      Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
    • Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
      $0.238
      $0.226
      $0.139
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.086
      Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
      250 MW Gas CT
      Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
      Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
    • New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
      $0.139
      $0.109
      $0.08
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.07
      $0.07
      Coal Plant 5%
      500 MW
      Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
    • New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
      $0.139
      $0.109
      $0.08
      Cents per Kilowatt Hour
      $0.07
      $0.07
      Coal Plant 5%
      500 MW
      Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
    • Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand
      Peak Summer Load
      28
      26
      24
      22
      20
      18
      Tracking PV at Full Power
      Summer Time Of Use Rates
      Retail Utility Rates, cents per kwh
      Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation
    • Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World
      Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010
      Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW
      Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW
      Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
    • U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing
      US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation
      DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
    • California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years
      2009 Utility RFO submittals:  30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals:  45 GW (expected)
      4.4 GW under contract below the cost of energy from new natural gas
      1
      California could be 20% solar by 2020
      1
      Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California.
      Source: Greentech Media, February 2011
    • Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
      Completed US PV Projects
      Completed US PV Projects
      Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States
      Global Installed 26 GW
      Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
    • Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
      Completed US PV Projects
      1
      Equal to 12 
nuclear plants
      in 4 years
      Over the next 4 years 12GW
      1 Note:  Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets
      Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
    • Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
      Fossil Fuel and Solar
      [ELI, SEIA]
      $72.4 billion
      $2 billion
      [SEIA, Blumenauer, Treasury]
      $40 billion
      $7-10 billion
      Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal  Energy  Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy  Technologies, February 24, 2011 “Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks”Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon,  www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
    • $72 bn
      Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase
      :
      Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
    • Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce
      Significant Price Declines
      $2 bn
      Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
    • Solar Creates Jobs
      Average Total Jobs/Megawatts
      7x more jobs
      than coal
      Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
    • Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources
      Added water if gas source is Fracking
      or Tower (wetcooled)
      Source: Adapted from DOE 2010, Table 8.3
    • Solar is Ready Now
      Solar
      17 GW
      Wind
      5 GW
      Coal
      6.7 GW
      Natural Gas
      5.5 GW
      Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide
      2010
      All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US
      2010
      Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural Gas includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT as 1.5 GW.)
    • US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets
      SPAIN
      Enough land area to power the whole country
      GERMANY
      Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy
    • US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth
      2010 Global Supply/Demand 
      Supply 17.4-GWp
      Demand
      Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media
    • Transition to Renewables
      To 2030
      To 2040
      To 2050
      • Flexible Generation
      • Energy Storage
      • Substitute Generation
      • Smartgrid
      TWH/yr
      Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.
      Sources: McKinsey Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP
    • Public Support for Clean Energy
      91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress
      85% of Republicans
      89% of Independents
      97% of Democrats
      Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
    • Solar
      Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today
      Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear
    • Date and other info
      Thank You
    • Date and other info
      Appendix
    • Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun
      New York City Blackout Summer 2003
      Economic lossesin NYC alone exceeded $1bn.
      Losses were between$7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada
      New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day
      Load (GW)
      Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV
      Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003
    • Among Global Energy Sources
      World Energy Use
      15 TW-yrs per year
      23
      15
      Wind
      70
      11
      Natural Gas
      OTEC
      170
      6
      Renewable Energy
      (Annual Reserves)
      Biomass
      Petroleum
      4
      2
      Hydro
      0.5
      Waves
      220
      0.3
      Tides
      Geothermal
      Uranium
      900
      Total reserve
      FINITE ENERGY
      (TOTAL RESERVES)
      Coal
      © Richard Perez – Used With Permission
    • Solar is by Far the Most Abundant
      World Energy Use
      15 TW-yrs per year
      23
      15
      Wind
      70
      11
      Solar
      40,000 TW-yrs per year
      Natural Gas
      OTEC
      170
      6
      Biomass
      Petroleum
      4
      2
      Hydro
      220
      0.5
      Waves
      0.3
      Tides
      Geothermal
      Uranium
      900
      Total reserve
      Coal
      © Richard Perez – Used With Permission
    • Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011
      BP Deep Water Horizon Oil SpillApril 2010
      Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarch 2011
      Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in San Bruno, CASeptember, 2010
      Upper Big Branch Coal Mine DisasterApril 2010