Solar future overview

  • 1,333 views
Uploaded on

Great overview of solar industry and path to total domination and general goodness. Thanks to Dan Shugar and Tom Dinwoody from SunPower and Solaria.

Great overview of solar industry and path to total domination and general goodness. Thanks to Dan Shugar and Tom Dinwoody from SunPower and Solaria.

More in: Technology , Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,333
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
74
Comments
0
Likes
2

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Solar:Power Today
    June 2011
  • 2. Residential
    1-10 kW
    Commercial Rooftop
    10 kW – 1 MW
    Utility Scale
    1 MW– 250 MW
  • 3. Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years
    17 nuclear power plants worth of solar peak power shipped in 2010
    5 nuclear plants brought online in 2010
    Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant
  • 4. $100
    1976
    $50
    Average Price [USD 2005/W]
    $5
    2010
    $1
    $0
    100
    1,000
    10,000
    Produced Silicon PV Modules (Global)
    $60.00
    Solar Industry Growth has Produced
    Steadily Falling Prices
    $1.50
    Due to Polysilicon Shortage
    Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011
    Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; 2011 numbers based on current market data
  • 5. Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing
    Projected price increase 2.5% per year
    Projected price increase 1% per year
    To date
    Average Retail Price of Electricity
    Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
  • 6. Technology and Adoption
    Price
    Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory
    US cell phone subscribers has risen
    from 5.3 million to 285 million
    in 15 years
  • 7. Solar Price Drops Mirror
    High Tech Consumer Goods
    Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale
    Cell Phones
    Digital Cameras
    with plan
    DVD Players
  • 8. Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets
    • 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
    • 9. Sale of Energy, not equipment
    • 10. Never an Increase in your Utility Bill
    • 11. >100,000 solar power systems already installed
  • Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
    $0.139
    $0.129
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.095
    $0.07
    1 GW Plant
    Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.
    Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year
    The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
    Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
  • 12. Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
    $0.139
    $0.129
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.095
    $0.07
    Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
    1 GW Plant
    Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years.
    Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant:  < 1 year
    The last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
    Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
  • 13. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
    $0.238
    $0.226
    $0.139
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.086
    250 MW Gas CT
    Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
    Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
  • 14. Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
    $0.238
    $0.226
    $0.139
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.086
    Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
    250 MW Gas CT
    Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
    Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
  • 15. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
    $0.139
    $0.109
    $0.08
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.07
    $0.07
    Coal Plant 5%
    500 MW
    Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
  • 16. New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
    $0.139
    $0.109
    $0.08
    Cents per Kilowatt Hour
    $0.07
    $0.07
    Coal Plant 5%
    500 MW
    Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
  • 17. Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand
    Peak Summer Load
    28
    26
    24
    22
    20
    18
    Tracking PV at Full Power
    Summer Time Of Use Rates
    Retail Utility Rates, cents per kwh
    Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation
  • 18. Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World
    Italy and Germany added 13 GW in 2010
    Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW
    Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW
    Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
  • 19. U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing
    US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation
    DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
  • 20. California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years
    2009 Utility RFO submittals:  30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals:  45 GW (expected)
    4.4 GW under contract below the cost of energy from new natural gas
    1
    California could be 20% solar by 2020
    1
    Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California.
    Source: Greentech Media, February 2011
  • 21. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
    Completed US PV Projects
    Completed US PV Projects
    Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States
    Global Installed 26 GW
    Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
  • 22. Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
    Completed US PV Projects
    1
    Equal to 12 
nuclear plants
    in 4 years
    Over the next 4 years 12GW
    1 Note:  Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial markets
    Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
  • 23. Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
    Fossil Fuel and Solar
    [ELI, SEIA]
    $72.4 billion
    $2 billion
    [SEIA, Blumenauer, Treasury]
    $40 billion
    $7-10 billion
    Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal  Energy  Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of Energy  Technologies, February 24, 2011 “Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks”Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon,  www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
  • 24. $72 bn
    Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase
    :
    Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
  • 25. Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce
    Significant Price Declines
    $2 bn
    Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
  • 26. Solar Creates Jobs
    Average Total Jobs/Megawatts
    7x more jobs
    than coal
    Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
  • 27. Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources
    Added water if gas source is Fracking
    or Tower (wetcooled)
    Source: Adapted from DOE 2010, Table 8.3
  • 28. Solar is Ready Now
    Solar
    17 GW
    Wind
    5 GW
    Coal
    6.7 GW
    Natural Gas
    5.5 GW
    Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide
    2010
    All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US
    2010
    Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural Gas includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT as 1.5 GW.)
  • 29. US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets
    SPAIN
    Enough land area to power the whole country
    GERMANY
    Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy
  • 30. US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth
    2010 Global Supply/Demand 
    Supply 17.4-GWp
    Demand
    Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media
  • 31. Transition to Renewables
    To 2030
    To 2040
    To 2050
    • Flexible Generation
    • 32. Energy Storage
    • 33. Substitute Generation
    • 34. Smartgrid
    TWH/yr
    Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.
    Sources: McKinsey Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP
  • 35. Public Support for Clean Energy
    91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress
    85% of Republicans
    89% of Independents
    97% of Democrats
    Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
  • 36. Solar
    Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today
    Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear
  • 37. Date and other info
    Thank You
  • 38. Date and other info
    Appendix
  • 39. Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak Sun
    New York City Blackout Summer 2003
    Economic lossesin NYC alone exceeded $1bn.
    Losses were between$7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada
    New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day
    Load (GW)
    Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV
    Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003
  • 40. Among Global Energy Sources
    World Energy Use
    15 TW-yrs per year
    23
    15
    Wind
    70
    11
    Natural Gas
    OTEC
    170
    6
    Renewable Energy
    (Annual Reserves)
    Biomass
    Petroleum
    4
    2
    Hydro
    0.5
    Waves
    220
    0.3
    Tides
    Geothermal
    Uranium
    900
    Total reserve
    FINITE ENERGY
    (TOTAL RESERVES)
    Coal
    © Richard Perez – Used With Permission
  • 41. Solar is by Far the Most Abundant
    World Energy Use
    15 TW-yrs per year
    23
    15
    Wind
    70
    11
    Solar
    40,000 TW-yrs per year
    Natural Gas
    OTEC
    170
    6
    Biomass
    Petroleum
    4
    2
    Hydro
    220
    0.5
    Waves
    0.3
    Tides
    Geothermal
    Uranium
    900
    Total reserve
    Coal
    © Richard Perez – Used With Permission
  • 42. Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011
    BP Deep Water Horizon Oil SpillApril 2010
    Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarch 2011
    Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in San Bruno, CASeptember, 2010
    Upper Big Branch Coal Mine DisasterApril 2010