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Agua y Cambio Climático 1 sea level-rise-and-the-caribbean

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  • 1. Sea Level Rise & the Caribbean by Maya A. Trotz Associate Professor Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USAFocus Latin America and the Caribbean: Americas Regional Panel on Water and Climate Change World Water Week Stockholm, Sweden 8/24/11 © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu.
  • 2. The 4 Points life now our future interconnectedness opportunities© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 3. life now (our vulnerability) Life Now • Do we build in vulnerable zones? • Do we flood? • Do we destroy natural mangrove habits? • Do we properly manage our freshwater resources? • Do we have access to clean and safe water? • Do we manage runoff properly?© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 4. Guyana life nowPhoto by O. Dalrymple© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 5. Guyana, 2005 life nowPhoto by M. A. Trotz Leptospirosis?© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean
  • 6. Siparia, Trinidad & Tobago, 2009 life now Dengue? Malaria? Photos by E. O. Omisca © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 7. St. Mary, Jamaica, 2007 life nowPhoto by M. A. Trotz© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 8. our future (climate predictions) Our Future • Will we have more droughts? • Will we have more intense rainfall? • Will our temperatures increase? • What will be the level of the sea?© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean
  • 9. Projected change in runoff our future Change in annual runoff by 2041-60 relative to 1900-70, in percent, under the SRES A1B emissions scenario and based on an ensemble of 12 climate models. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd. [Nature] (Milly et al., 2005), copyright 2005© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 10. PROJECTED % CHANGE IN our futurePRECIPITATIONTaken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Climate Change & Water in the Caribbean.
  • 11. PROJECTED INCREASE oC our futureTaken from U. Trotz, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 12. 1oC impact on dolphin fish our future Dolphin fish Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 13
  • 13. Sea level rise our future Historic sea-level rise: a. 0 mm/yr (Suriname) b. 1.3 mm/yr (Venezuela) c. 1-3 mm/yr (Insular Caribbean) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions over the next century: 2 mm/yr – 9 mm/yrDalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004.IPCC, 1996. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. © M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 14. interconnectedness (projected impact)Interconnectedness• How will sea level rise impact coastal aquifers & water supplies?• How will sea level rise impact critical industries?• How will sea level rise impact built infrastructure?• How will sea level rise impact food? © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 15. Guyana News interconnectednessDalrymple, OK, Vulnerability assessment of coastal communities in Guyana, Center for Resource Management &Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies, MSc, 2004. © M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 16. Impacts on Aquifers interconnectednessBarbados West Coast aquifers already showing signs of salt water intrusionGrenada 1.0 SLR will lead to salinisation of wells in South peninsula of GrenadaGuyana Coastal aquifers already experiencing salt water intrusion. Will >> with SLRhttp://www.ozcoasts.org.au/indicators/saline_intrusion.jsp, accessed 7/19/11 © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 17. IMPACTS ON TOURISMSEA LEVEL RISE(SLR)• Impacts of SLR significant for all states (average capital costs of up to 48% of GDP in 2080)• Rebuild costs disproportionately high for smaller island states• Rebuild costs of tourist resorts very high in many cases (average of up to 28% of GDP in 2080)• Key infrastructure (ports, airport and power plants) in most countries vulnerable to 1m SLR• Impacts increase significantly from 2050 to 2080(murray.simpson@ouce.ox.ac.uk, www.caribsave.org, www.bb.undp.org) U Trotz - CCCCC 14th June 2011 18
  • 18. opportunities (adapt/mitigate) Opportunities • Regional Collaboration • Optimized resource utilization • Engaged citizenship • Education & authentic science© M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 19. Caribbean Modelling Initiative opportunities Region as a system? • Water • Food • Energy • Human capacity • UWI, • Local universities • Technical institutes • Common primary & secondary curriculum. Climate Studies Group, Mona (Climate Studies Group, Mona‐CSGM)‐Jamaica • University of the West Indies, Cave Hill‐Barbados • Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH)‐Barbados • Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)‐ Cuba • Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC)‐Belize© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean
  • 20. opportunitiesRelocation & smart design
  • 21. Climate, energy, water, materials, humannexus – new building codes, demand side opportunitieschange, new trainingAdapted from http://www.environmentwriter.com/archives/tag/water-reuse © M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 22. opportunitiescacce.net National Science Foundation Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Program. Phase 1 funded ($1 million US) Phase 2 due 2012 ($10 million US)© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean
  • 23. CACCE Targets opportunities• The Formal Education Spectrum • K-12 students • K-12 teachers • College and Graduate Students • College Educators, Researchers, and Climate Scientists.• Informal Science Education Audiences and Professionals• Business/Regulatory/Governmental Organizations and Professionals at the Territorial/Regional/Municipal level, focused on the Built Environment: • Regional/Urban Planning Councils • Water/Coastal Management organizations • Design/Engineering Firms • Others, as Relevant and Appropriate © your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
  • 24. Building Community Engagement & ResilienceWater Awareness Research and Education opportunities Weather station Difference between weather & climate• Builds sustainable model for P-20 and community partnership to raise environmental awareness, improve livelihoods and health & protect water bodies.• Field studies, laboratory experiments, P-20 curriculum, community outreach. © M. A. Trotz. matrotz@usf.edu Sea level rise and the Caribbean.
  • 25. opportunities How do we build the human capacity needed to develop innovative solutions to deal with sea level rise or other climate impacts?© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
  • 26. OECD countries % of highly skilled migrants (2000)Remittances as a % of GDP (2006) Country/Island % Country/Island %GDP Guyana 83Guyana 30.1 Jamaica 82Honduras 24.8 Haiti 79Suriname 21.2 Brazil 2Costa Rica 2.0 Dumont, J., & Lemaitre, G. (2005). Counting immigrants and expatriates in OECD countries: A new perspective OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers, 25, 1-45. Adapted from http://www.ifad.org/remittances/maps/latin.htm Accessed 11/22/08. matrotz@eng.usf.edu 27
  • 27. opportunitiesDiaspora engagement© your company name. All rights reserved. Title of your presentation
  • 28. QUESTIONS? matrotz@usf.edu© M. A. Trotz, matrotz@usf.edu. Sea level rise and the Caribbean.